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Assuming Singapore goes into recession and there is major retrenchment, which class of property do you think will suffer the biggest price correction and which one the least. And why?
Non Landed - MM
1) OCR
2) RCR
3) CCR
Non Landed - Non-MM
4) OCR
5) RCR
6) CCR
Landed
7) GCB
8) Detached
9) Semi-D
10) Terrace
11) Strata
Assuming Singapore goes into recession and there is major retrenchment, which class of property do you think will suffer the biggest price correction and which one the least. And why?
Non Landed - MM
1) OCR
2) RCR
3) CCR
Non Landed - Non-MM
4) OCR
5) RCR
6) CCR
Landed
7) GCB
8) Detached
9) Semi-D
10) Terrace
11) Strata
all the above...if your assumption is true . nn wan is spare...
is the LH vs the FL status then...
Biggest correction against wat bench mark. Places like ccr nonlanded non-mm, when price up, it can go very very up, when down also very down.
I would say that in terms of panic selling, would be OCR, nonlanded non mm. Hunch tells me tat there are many borderline investors for tat category.
Mm, be it ccr, rcr or ocr, will be the most resilient. Reason being small quantum means less loan or no loan. So can hold.
all the above...if your assumption is true . nn wan is spare...
is the LH vs the FL status then...
the question is which one will suffer the biggest price correction lah not asking you which on is recession proof.
Allthepies
18-10-12, 20:39
Those tat I won't buy will suffer the most price correction :D :D ie property with bad attributes.
What do you want to hear?
Ok ok, in % terms, must be those >$1200 psf OCR lor! :p
Why? Too much supply, borderline owners who can't hold for long... If pay $300 psf more can buy RCR & even CCR, who still want to buy these OCR when the crash comes? :scared-2:
Assuming Singapore goes into recession and there is major retrenchment, which class of property do you think will suffer the biggest price correction and which one the least. And why?
Non Landed - MM
1) OCR
2) RCR
3) CCR
Non Landed - Non-MM
4) OCR
5) RCR
6) CCR
Landed
7) GCB
8) Detached
9) Semi-D
10) Terrace
11) Strata
auroraborealis
18-10-12, 21:47
Err... What about HDB? Shouldn't all the > $700k HDB fall by 40% 1st?
What do you want to hear?
Ok ok, in % terms, must be those >$1200 psf OCR lor! :p
Why? Too much supply, borderline owners who can't hold for long... If pay $300 psf more can buy RCR & even CCR, who still want to buy these OCR when the crash comes? :scared-2:
regardless of OCR or CCR, when market drops one day, think those in poor location, poor facing, old condos with poor maintanc will drop probably the most in percentage terms relative to the rest.
In current euphoric market, even poor location, poor facing are transacting at sky high prices.
Assuming Singapore goes into recession and there is major retrenchment, which class of property do you think will suffer the biggest price correction and which one the least. And why?
Actually I am not worried about recession causing a housing crash, but rather a housing crash causing a recession....
I mean if external interest rates goes back to 4% and housing market crash, straight away a lot of people will lose so much money. no money to spend... no incomes, everyone try to save more money. you see it in places in Europe, USA. I hope singapore government does something fast.
Actually I am not worried about recession causing a housing crash, but rather a housing crash causing a recession....
I mean if external interest rates goes back to 4% and housing market crash, straight away a lot of people will lose so much money. no money to spend... no incomes, everyone try to save more money. you see it in places in Europe, USA. I hope singapore government does something fast.
wha makes you think they will do anything more? your hopes are misplaced. khaw already thinking abt reducing HDB supply now.
Assuming Singapore goes into recession and there is major retrenchment, which class of property do you think will suffer the biggest price correction and which one the least. And why?
In a major recession, i guess property that depends on rental to pay for their loan installment will be hit hard. My gut tells me that commercial pty might be the first to bite the bullet.....
Normally the case with shops empty, bankruptcy, and bad debt but more auction.
In a major recession, i guess property that depends on rental to pay for their loan installment will be hit hard. My gut tells me that commercial pty might be the first to bite the bullet.....
Secretariat
19-10-12, 09:25
the question is which one will suffer the biggest price correction lah not asking you which on is recession proof.
Landed, semi-d follows by terrace. By price change %.
Biggest correction against wat bench mark. Places like ccr nonlanded non-mm, when price up, it can go very very up, when down also very down.
I would say that in terms of panic selling, would be OCR, nonlanded non mm. Hunch tells me tat there are many borderline investors for tat category.
Mm, be it ccr, rcr or ocr, will be the most resilient. Reason being small quantum means less loan or no loan. So can hold.
If go by your logic of quantum, shouldn't those landed with bigger loans get hit hardest? We are talking about a recession. Anybody can lose his/her job.
Landed are usually owner occupied with hardly any new supply. Most landed owners don't depend on rentals to service and since its the roof over their heads, it would be the last asset that they will part with. The highest risk would be the segment with a huge potential supply coming on stream and dependent on rentals to service their monthly instalments.
this doomsday thread is very scary to read for people on the boats
this doomsday thread is very scary to read for people on the boats
CM can be reserved. If not the guvment is useless.
Those who put 40%, 60% downpayment will do a refinance and get the money to hoot another unit if crash.
this doomsday thread is very scary to read for people on the boats
our friend Mr B has been doomsdaying since a year ago but property still cheong leh.....
If you have 40% reserve cash for all yr properties and all properties are on 60% loan then you should not have to worry liao...:D ! Interest rate is unlikely to go up to 5% and properties crash also unlikely to drop till 40-50% in Singapore. If interest rate really go up to 5%, use the 40% reserve cash to reduce the loan quantum lor..:rolleyes: .
So long you have holding power..property price eventually will go up and up and up..:jump-for-joy: :jump-for-joy: :jump-for-joy: !!!
this doomsday thread is very scary to read for people on the boats
The fact that this thread has started tells you something about the air ....
macham .. before it rains you can feel the air starting to moist and windy ..
In stock market it is called the extended high .. just after high ...and before the exceptional calm and then ... folks be careful and pray safe .
Landed are usually owner occupied with hardly any new supply. Most landed owners don't depend on rentals to service and since its the roof over their heads, it would be the last asset that they will part with. The highest risk would be the segment with a huge potential supply coming on stream and dependent on rentals to service their monthly instalments.
I am not sure if thats true. If you look at propertyguru, there are definitely many landed property in the market looking for tenants at really low yield.
when you have high quantum and low yield, if there is shock in the market, finding tenant will be even more difficult, and selling will become almost impossible.
I am not sure if thats true. If you look at propertyguru, there are definitely many landed property in the market looking for tenants at really low yield.
when you have high quantum and low yield, if there is shock in the market, finding tenant will be even more difficult, and selling will become almost impossible.
No of condos/apt for rent in propguru - 35,439
No of landed for rent in propguru - 5,610
I haven't even started on supply coming on-stream in next few years. Who do you think will blink first?
No of condos/apt for rent in propguru - 35,439
No of landed for rent in propguru - 5,610
Who do you think will blink first?
duplicate postings, my dear watson
as long as HDB prices remain high, there won't be a catastrophic drop. those who over-leveraged themselves are the first to face the firing squad.
duplicate postings, my dear watson
as long as HDB prices remain high, there won't be a catastrophic drop. those who over-leveraged themselves are the first to face the firing squad.
One property can have >10 entires and on top, there are some fishy entries and obsolete entries.
No of condos/apt for rent in propguru - 35,439
No of landed for rent in propguru - 5,610
I haven't even started on supply coming on-stream in next few years. Who do you think will blink first?
No point focusing on supply numbers without comparing demand.
If you look at URA property price index, landed property has always been the one that suffer the biggest drop during a correction. Will it be different this time?
duplicate postings, my dear watson
as long as HDB prices remain high, there won't be a catastrophic drop. those who over-leveraged themselves are the first to face the firing squad.
I know. There are duplicate postings in both segments so even if you minus out the duplicates in both segments, it should still be a good gauge of the overwhelming numbers in ap/condos vs landed.
You have also not taken into account the new supply coming on-stream.
I agree with you on the overleveraging but until there are definitive figures to show which segment of buyers are overleveraged vs their liquidity positions, the verdict is still a moot point.
No point focusing on supply numbers without comparing demand.
If you look at URA property price index, landed property has always been the one that suffer the biggest drop during a correction. Will it be different this time?
So you are saying there is no demand for landed?
Err...your thread title is which will crash FIRST not which will suffer the highest drop.
Based on on-coming supply and assuming demand for all segments grinds to a halt, which segment will blink first?
MAS mentioned that 45% of the loans >30 yrs?
With the recent curb on loan tenor. If rates go up, most of these folks cannot refinance. They can reprice but I doubt they will be offered better rates than if they refinanced.
MAS is afraid of knock on effect when defaults, fire-sale, downward revaluation and stressed out home owners start mounting up.
So you are saying there is no demand for landed?
Err...your thread title is which will crash FIRST not which will suffer the highest drop.
Based on on-coming supply and assuming demand for all segments grinds to a halt, which segment will bllink first?
Your reasoning is based on supply numbers ONLY and it is meaningless because big supply can easily be absorb by big or bigger demand, while small supply number could also mean smaller demand.
Have you compared the total number of people buying condo vs landed property?
I know. There are duplicate postings in both segments so even if you minus out the duplicates in both segments, it should still be a good gauge of the overwhelming numbers in ap/condos vs landed.
You have also not taken into account the new supply coming on-stream.
I agree with you on the overleveraging but until there are definitive figures to show which segment of buyers are overleveraged vs their liquidity positions, the verdict is still a moot point.
then have you considered that the government's target for the island's population is 6m? whatever new supply there is, it won't be enough to soak up the demand from another 600-700k new immigrants
Your reasoning is based on supply numbers ONLY and it is meaningless because big supply can easily be absorb by big or bigger demand, while small supply number could also mean smaller demand.
Have you compared the total number of people buying condo vs landed property?
Property values will crash when there is no demand across the board so I don't understand why you are harping on demand when you are painting a bear scenario.
Secretariat
19-10-12, 11:15
No point focusing on supply numbers without comparing demand.
If you look at URA property price index, landed property has always been the one that suffer the biggest drop during a correction. Will it be different this time?
This is correct, but still wrong.
It is URA's fault, because it counts the price psf of landed as transacted price over land area. It does not care, or track, if the transaction involves an old 1960s house or a new 3-storey building.
To illustrate, $3.0 mil transaction of 3-storey sitting on 2000 sqf, this becomes $1500 psf. Then markets crash. His neighbor decided to sell his house, same 2000 sqf but an original 1960 one-storey house at $2.0 mil, and it is sold. URA then counts this as $1000 psf, resulting in the plunge shown in the RPPI.
then have you considered that the government's target for the island's population is 6m? whatever new supply there is, it won't be enough to soak up the demand from another 600-700k new immigrants
Err.. I think thread starter is trying to paint a 'what if' bear scenario. If you see my posts in other threads, I do not think property will crash at all. You should be posing your question to TS instead as to why he is talking about property values crashing.
Property values will crash when there is no demand across the board so I don't understand why you are harping on demand when you are painting a bear scenario.
It is true that when economy is not doing well, property prices across the board will be affect, but certain type will be affected more than others. That is the point of this discussion.
And your reasoning the condo will be hardest hit because of the supply. You are not wrong that an over supply situation will depress rental market and price, but you will also need to consider the market demand for condo.
Here is an example of how price have move in the past. as you can see, some drop faster than others.
http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2012/pr12-08a7.pdf
Property values will crash when there is no demand across the board so I don't understand why you are harping on demand when you are painting a bear scenario.
Singapore only has an indigenous population of 3.25 million out of the current total of 5.25 million residents. The additional 2 million will always remain a variable in your demand side of the equation.
It is true that when economy is not doing well, property prices across the board will be affect, but certain type will be affected more than others. That is the point of this discussion.
And your reasoning the condo will be hardest hit because of the supply. You are not wrong that an over supply situation will depress rental market and price, but you will also need to consider the market demand for condo.
Here is an example of how price have move in the past. as you can see, some drop faster than others.
http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2012/pr12-08a7.pdf
As I have pointed out before. Your thread title says which segment will crash first and NOT which will crash the most so your chart doesn't mean a thing because what goes up the most may not be the first one that goes down.
If you go by statistics, the pool with the greatest number of sellers will by default have the greatest possibility of blinking first vs a smaller pool, right?
This is correct, but still wrong.
It is URA's fault, because it counts the price psf of landed as transacted price over land area. It does not care, or track, if the transaction involves an old 1960s house or a new 3-storey building.
To illustrate, $3.0 mil transaction of 3-storey sitting on 2000 sqf, this becomes $1500 psf. Then markets crash. His neighbor decided to sell his house, same 2000 sqf but an original 1960 one-storey house at $2.0 mil, and it is sold. URA then counts this as $1000 psf, resulting in the plunge shown in the RPPI.
Actually the opposite is more true, where URA doesnt take into account the cost of A&A and rebuilding of landed property when the capture the transaction price.
And from my observation, those who own those old landed property are generally those retirees who have already fully paid up their mortgage since 20 30 years ago and have survived through several round of economic cycles without problem.
Those most vulnerable are those buyers who have leverage to the max to buy those landed with max out plot ratio.
Singapore only has an indigenous population of 3.25 million out of the current total of 5.25 million residents. The additional 2 million will always remain a variable in your demand side of the equation.
sigh.... I have already mentioned that I don't think price will crash at all. I am just posting in context to the thread title in a bear scenario since 'crash' is a very severe term to use.
As I have pointed out before. Your thread title says which segment will crash first and NOT which will crash the most so your chart doesn't mean a thing because what goes up the most may not be the first one that goes down.
If you go by statistics, the pool with the greatest number of sellers will by default have the greatest possibility of blinking first vs a smaller pool, right?
Maybe you should also read the thread content.
Assuming Singapore goes into recession and there is major retrenchment, which class of property do you think will suffer the biggest price correction and which one the least. And why?
Secretariat
19-10-12, 11:47
Actually the opposite is more true, where URA doesnt take into account the cost of A&A and rebuilding of landed property when the capture the transaction price.
And from my observation, those who own those old landed property are generally those retirees who have already fully paid up their mortgage since 20 30 years ago and have survived through several round of economic cycles without problem.
Those most vulnerable are those buyers who have leverage to the max to buy those landed with max out plot ratio.
People buying landed with max leverage are just asking for trouble, this I agree.
Old folks, well I have heard enough sad stories; kena conned by children la, to clear gambling debts la (theirs but most their children's) etc...
Maybe you should also read the thread content.
You should change yr thread title then since its misleading as a lot of old folks like me don't read from begining of thread. Anyway, just curious as to why you'd start a bearish thread all of a sudden when you used to be optimistic.
You should change yr thread title then since its misleading as a lot of old folks like me don't read from begining of thread. Anyway, just curious as to why you'd start a bearish thread all of a sudden when you used to be optimistic.
Its really not my fault that you dont like to read content before replying and there is really nothing misleading if you understand the meaning of CRASH.
Property always move in cycle and with SSD, even bullish also must anticipate what is going to happen to our investment during bad times.
Its really not my fault that you dont like to read content before replying and there is really nothing misleading if you understand the meaning of CRASH.
Property always move in cycle and with SSD, even bullish also must anticipate what is going to happen to our investment during bad times.
it must take an event bigger than 2008's meltdown to clobber prices. recalling that period, the drop was less drastic than i hoped, and the period - shorter.
it must take an event bigger than 2008's meltdown to clobber prices. recalling that period, the drop was less drastic than i hoped, and the period - shorter.
That's why this time IT'S DIFFERENT! :cool:
Whatever shit hits the fan, SG property will NEVER be affected. Govt will ride into the rescue if property price softens and banks get into trouble.
They already hinting they wanna stop building flats liao.
HUAT AH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
then have you considered that the government's target for the island's population is 6m? whatever new supply there is, it won't be enough to soak up the demand from another 600-700k new immigrants
Do note the govt. aim to bring population up to 6mil is inclusive of FWs, Work permits, S-pass and E-pass. Of these, the FWs are usually housed in dormotories, the WPs shared 4-8pax per HDB unit and only the minority(in terms of %) of S & E pass soaked up the condo rentals (but some S-pass also rent HDB)
do note the 600k increment is over a number of years, not instantly. So 5yrs average will be more like 150k .. and out of the 150k, you still need to figure out the % who will rent what type of units and how many pax per unit.
Oh btw, i agreed that crash is a big word... with all the CMs, i think correction sounds more plausible.
Secretariat
19-10-12, 17:53
it must take an event bigger than 2008's meltdown to clobber prices. recalling that period, the drop was less drastic than i hoped, and the period - shorter.
Aiyo, you need to see the URA chart again.
But doubtlessly, it was a v-shaped recovery but still more than a few kena.
Why "you hoped"?
Its really not my fault that you dont like to read content before replying and there is really nothing misleading if you understand the meaning of CRASH.
Property always move in cycle and with SSD, even bullish also must anticipate what is going to happen to our investment during bad times.
Just a friendly suggestion to help iron out the inconsistency between your thread title and content. Its not my fault if you choose not to accept it.
Luckily, I am just an old man with close to zero gearing and enough liquidity to take advantage of bad times. A 'crash' is never pretty for any segment. Good luck on your investments..;)
Very hard to know which PC will crash first.
What I know now is ... if ANY property suddenly drop 5% below last done, people rush down with a cheque!
If you dont believe, just advertise your property at 5% below last done and see how many calls u get from all over the shop!
People not stupid one, they learn. See what happens last time we recession ?
Prices dropped for ... 2 quarters (I think) then quickly rebounded strongly.
So, I predict that if there is a recession in Q4, people will rush to buy properties !
DKSG
Do note the govt. aim to bring population up to 6mil is inclusive of FWs, Work permits, S-pass and E-pass. Of these, the FWs are usually housed in dormotories, the WPs shared 4-8pax per HDB unit and only the minority(in terms of %) of S & E pass soaked up the condo rentals (but some S-pass also rent HDB)
do note the 600k increment is over a number of years, not instantly. So 5yrs average will be more like 150k .. and out of the 150k, you still need to figure out the % who will rent what type of units and how many pax per unit.
Oh btw, i agreed that crash is a big word... with all the CMs, i think correction sounds more plausible.
as long as the word is out, there is a good chance of grabbing rental, regardless of what kind of tenants there are since demand is outstrips supply at this moment.
all we need is an inflow of 30000-50000 a year and voila, that takes care of any excess supply
Aiyo, you need to see the URA chart again.
But doubtlessly, it was a v-shaped recovery but still more than a few kena.
Why "you hoped"?
the shape was V but prices didn't crash. looking to invest at that time
stock mkt will crash first? hopefully at least for one day :D :D
stock mkt will crash first? hopefully at least for one day :D :D
Would tend to agree with you however, hate tp break it to you but it seems that title of thread is not in sync with TS' intentions. Like you, I was misled by the title and had suggested to TS to change it but according to him, its your own fault for not reading through his thread from beginning.
condo.singapore forum website..will crash first...:D
No of condos/apt for rent in propguru - 35,439
No of landed for rent in propguru - 5,610
I haven't even started on supply coming on-stream in next few years. Who do you think will blink first?
interest at 1% so no pain in holding my guess...:cool:
No of condos/apt for rent in propguru - 35,439
No of landed for rent in propguru - 5,610
I haven't even started on supply coming on-stream in next few years. Who do you think will blink first?
Did u check how many is repeat listing? Meaning many agent listing for one unit.. & how many is play play only etc... So finally what is the figure :D
Did u check how many is repeat listing? Meaning many agent listing for one unit.. & how many is play play only etc... So finally what is the figure :D
I was told at least 70% are duplicate or obsolete
phantom_opera
09-01-13, 18:27
of course COE first loh
COE for cars up to 1,600cc soars to new high of $92,100
of course COE first loh
COE for cars up to 1,600cc soars to new high of $92,100$4k more you get bigger car COE... just buy bigger car lah...
So if citizens complain the cost of cars in Singapore will others say these complainers are expecting too much? I think prices of cars are climbing beyond the reach of a typical citizen... :doh:
I will surely ask govt to look into the COE system again... :scared-2:
Wrong thread... :p
of course COE first loh
COE for cars up to 1,600cc soars to new high of $92,100
Unlikely, Cars are a necessity for many and not an investment, even for MM cars. COEs will always in short supply and any plunge would be very shortlived.
In contrast, almost all in Singapore already owned a home, people are talking about the luxury of upgrading to PCs and additional investments for prosperity for their future generations. Hard to equate the two even though their prices can move in tandem.
jacelynchia
09-01-13, 19:09
Anyone worried that market might go down for private properties subsale due to high numbers of Ecs launched?
High Numbers of Ecs launched at super reasonable and relatively low prices compared to private properties.
In the long term after 5-10 years, many more Ecs come to play in subsale market, may play a big threat because Ecs are so much cheaper, much bigger than many newly launched projects.
Will future buyers see that as value for money in the future?
Price gap between Ecs and private are huge. Much more lucrative compared to buying a smaller property and at more expensive prices.
Any thoughts on this?
I was told at least 70% are duplicate or obsolete
Called 5 separate listings, all marketing same unit. and another one told me the listing is done by his office and not sure whether unit is still available as he has not checked the status for sometime. :banghead:
Got very confused, bec not sure whether these listings are real or not or the so called unit is actually available. Maybe thats why a lot of people go for new launches, the lisitings you see on the spot are what you can really get and not made to go round a wild goose chase.
blackapple
09-01-13, 20:13
Anyone worried that market might go down for private properties subsale due to high numbers of Ecs launched?
High Numbers of Ecs launched at super reasonable and relatively low prices compared to private properties.
In the long term after 5-10 years, many more Ecs come to play in subsale market, may play a big threat because Ecs are so much cheaper, much bigger than many newly launched projects.
Will future buyers see that as value for money in the future?
Price gap between Ecs and private are huge. Much more lucrative compared to buying a smaller property and at more expensive prices.
Any thoughts on this?
Except for some ECs launched by MBT have good locations, the rest launched by Khaw is quite ulu... So you choose big ec at ulu place or small property at better location..
Anyone worried that market might go down for private properties subsale due to high numbers of Ecs launched?
High Numbers of Ecs launched at super reasonable and relatively low prices compared to private properties.
In the long term after 5-10 years, many more Ecs come to play in subsale market, may play a big threat because Ecs are so much cheaper, much bigger than many newly launched projects.
Will future buyers see that as value for money in the future?
Price gap between Ecs and private are huge. Much more lucrative compared to buying a smaller property and at more expensive prices.
Any thoughts on this?
valid concern but seriously 14 years (3/4 years built + MOP) from now.. nobody can see. no need think so far. think so much better stay put, invest in stocks and bonds
jacelynchia
10-01-13, 12:48
valid concern but seriously 14 years (3/4 years built + MOP) from now.. nobody can see. no need think so far. think so much better stay put, invest in stocks and bonds
Stocks and bonds? I don't really know much....maybe you can advise.
But Seriously if population going over 6 million in singapore, going to be extremely crowded, space will become priceless.
Ecs will take the lead due to space and low prices.
Stocks and bonds? I don't really know much....maybe you can advise.
But Seriously if population going over 6 million in singapore, going to be extremely crowded, space will become priceless.
Ecs will take the lead due to space and low prices.
i never think too much. else i wun be vested. my stocks and shares all sold leow.
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