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as there are a number of fellow here talking about bond...
I start a new thread here for sharing and learning...
The Housing and Development Board ("HDB") has launched two new issuances of Notes under its S$12 billion Multicurrency Medium Term Note ("MTN") Programme.
http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10296p.nsf/PressReleases/34509C754E60D57E4825790D0030EB7C?OpenDocument
How to create something out of nothing.
First make them work and save, take their money and build houses give 80% a share of the housing.
Move the housing price higher, give them chance to upgrade.(leverage)
Start selling piece of paper call bond. (take the money back)
Chey, for one moment thought TS refering to this instead...
http://mi6007.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/skyfall-promotional-poster.jpg
Chey, for one moment thought TS refering to this instead...
ts is a very serious and savvy investor cannot joke joke wan...:D...i was thinking to post this picture but u beat me to it...so u are leftfield and i should be rightfield:scared-1::D
http://daily20pip.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/forex-trader-why-so-serious.jpg
http://daily20pip.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/forex-trader-why-so-serious.jpg
hang around a bit longer u will know who are the clowns i am one of them...:D...u might also bump into one or two gays...:scared-1::D...some nice sisters...;)...some story tellers...:doh:...the list goes on..enjoy ur stay...
buttercarp
16-10-12, 14:48
@leftfield
The only bond I know is James Bond :o .
I also wanted to post a picture of James Bond, but as bro radha said cannot joke one.
Scared get scolding from TS :ashamed1: .
http://i47.tinypic.com/whi738.png
These are my bonds but leverage under 5%..
Dare not leverage.. but if dare leverage.. i think i huat big big.
But just to share.. I've attended a recent pte bank presentation on how to leverage on bonds..
and I asked 2 questions :-
1) When i asked the speaker about leverage 50-80%(as shown in his examples) and if 2009 happens again, what will happen? 2 oldies in the audience sniggered and says "sure die one"... and the speaker was non-commital and says it's better to be conservative.
2) when i asked the speaker about the leverage % as conservative, he says 20%.
So food for thought. Financial instruments really cannot leverage too much. For properties, its' as long as you service your installments, no one will bother you..
Ooops
min $3,250,000 is your worth
Why die? What is the worst case senario? NAV drop? So NAV drop, bank ask for top up? Or bond kaput?
Did you get your answer? I ask because this is open ended.
During 2009, my notes which I purchased before that performed well. I sold because it was safer to maintain cash. I also converted my smart mortgage to loan.
http://i47.tinypic.com/whi738.png
These are my bonds but leverage under 5%..
Dare not leverage.. but if dare leverage.. i think i huat big big.
But just to share.. I've attended a recent pte bank presentation on how to leverage on bonds..
and I asked 2 questions :-
1) When i asked the speaker about leverage 50-80%(as shown in his examples) and if 2009 happens again, what will happen? 2 oldies in the audience sniggered and says "sure die one"... and the speaker was non-commital and says it's better to be conservative.
2) when i asked the speaker about the leverage % as conservative, he says 20%.
So food for thought. Financial instruments really cannot leverage too much. For properties, its' as long as you service your installments, no one will bother you..
hang around a bit longer u will know who are the clowns i am one of them...:D...u might also bump into one or two gays...:scared-1::D...some nice sisters...;)...some story tellers...:doh:...the list goes on..enjoy ur stay...
Thanks for the warm welcome! :D
@leftfield
The only bond I know is James Bond :o .
I also wanted to post a picture of James Bond, but as bro radha said cannot joke one.
Scared get scolding from TS :ashamed1: .
Haha, I newbie so can get away from nonsense for a start. :p
Oops, realised that there is indeed a very serious discussion going on, I shall make myself scarce! Apologies for the OT!
Ooops
min $3,250,000 is your worth
lol.. that's the bonds only in the portfolio mah and you can assumed it's all 250k each. but it can be more or less. But definitely more than $3.25mil. I think we already talked about it. So you just keep to yourself :) Don't reveal loh.
Why die? What is the worst case senario? NAV drop? So NAV drop, bank ask for top up? Or bond kaput?
Did you get your answer? I ask because this is open ended.
During 2009, my notes which I purchased before that performed well. I sold because it was safer to maintain cash. I also converted my smart mortgage to loan.
hmm.. i think 2009, got people who have their term facility recalled and need to top up. During 2009, I attended a mtg, a old man complained to the speakers that they promised them the sky and now he lose money and that is his retirement money.. As usual , speakers just assured him it's temporary and must hold for long term view.. But sometimes, retirement money is very hard to use long term to justify. But a lot of bankers always tell you think long term. Nobody talk about cashflow.
Ok, bad to worse case :-
1) Interest rate rise and your spread is narrowed which means you are receiving less than planned cashflow. Interest rate rise also caused the value of your bonds to go down and if you sell, it will be at a loss. So you can only hold onto the bonds till maturity. If say you get a 5yr bond at 5% yield and on the 3rd yr, the interst rise to 3%, you spread narrow to 2%. If you have depended on that calaculation to live off your passive income, you might have to recalculate and sell some bonds to cover your expenses(assuming again if you have only 3yrs living expenses covered from start of yr 0).
2) If crisis do happen again and Capland convertible was a perfect example, you lent at 50% LTV for the bonds at par but crisis, capland could be had for 60% par, and bank also want you to top up. You have to sell your bonds if you have no money to top up. That was the panic. No panic, bank also will not ask for top up ah. But properties, they dare not touch.. too illiquid to ask you to sell and pay them back.
3) Your bonds is one of those highly levered companies paying above market yield. It goes kaput or maybe restructuring which may be write off part or total value of the bonds, or offered a lower yielding bond in exchange for the higher yielding bond. Your loan interest is still there and your lower value yield ..again.. compromise your cashflow.
Anyway, i am speaking from a point of retiree needing cashflow. If you are working and playing for capital gains.. totally different.. :)
I am a noob too.. and too conservative.. So, i would love to learn more about bonds leverage form those more experienced like yourself :) Do share more.
lol.. that's the bonds only in the portfolio mah and you can assumed it's all 250k each. but it can be more or less. But definitely more than $3.25mil. I think we already talked about it. So you just keep to yourself :) Don't reveal loh.
yaya. promised promised..u also don't talk about me!!! deal done...
I see that ur preserving your wealth very well, getting a rate of about 1-3% above inflation.
From an another angle, ur not growing your wealthy that greatly if u did not use leverage to your advantage, be it in property or bond etc.
A prudent investor is to take calculated risk and is not NOT to take risk.
yaya. promised promised..u also don't talk about me!!! deal done...
I see that ur preserving your wealth very well, getting a rate of about 1-3% above inflation.
From an another angle, ur not growing your wealthy that greatly if u did not use leverage to your advantage, be it in property or bond etc.
A prudent investor is to take calculated risk and is not NOT to take risk.
Yes. That's why i say i am too conservative. very underleveraged.
I missed the boat for properties.. If only I met you earlier like in 2009! :) I might have gotten some wisdom to buy and maybe will have LEVELED Up by now..
So now I also dare not buy but you keep buying.. lol.. are we two opposite extremes?
So now must meet more mentors .. this thread is a good start since the poster "cbs#&$#&*&$" did an excellent summary of how he leverage up his cash for 50% LTV and get $180k.. But in the back of my mind, it's still the risk i'm scared of.. Properties on leverage somehow makes me feel safer though the calculation does not work out.
Your properties are mainly for capital gain right? The bonds are the passive income you are using.
Yes. That's why i say i am too conservative. very underleveraged.
I missed the boat for properties.. If only I met you earlier like in 2009! :) I might have gotten some wisdom to buy and maybe will have LEVELED Up by now..
So now I also dare not buy but you keep buying.. lol.. are we two opposite extremes?
So now must meet more mentors .. this thread is a good start since the poster "cbs#&$#&*&$" did an excellent summary of how he leverage up his cash for 50% LTV and get $180k.. But in the back of my mind, it's still the risk i'm scared of.. Properties on leverage somehow makes me feel safer though the calculation does not work out.
Your properties are mainly for capital gain right? The bonds are the passive income you are using.
It is never too late to start. But overall, u have done very well compared to a lot of others...
I suppose ur now a very busy daddy...enjoy the baby first....
I like this topic :)
OLAM 10y 6.1% doing now, anyone keen ?
Leveraged bond compared with leveraged pty, for yield definitely bond if you have access. Pty I always said is for capital gain not for yield. When a prolonged 2009 case comes, pty prices collapse faster than bond prices, the latter at least are liquid.
Bro, wa lau, you already answer everything on bonds already. You invest in bonds more than me.
You see, the leverage game is a double edged sword and u need to know how to manage it.
Remember 2008/9, the stock market got hamtam, even if you don't leverage, you may get jam. Stocks like Keppel Land, DBS, etc... Were doing rights issue. You don't take their rights, u also jialat. You take their rights you Need to come out almost equivalent stock price at the point of rights issue. This stunt got a lot of people into trouble. That was when cash was king.
So in any instruments you go in, you must do it w knowledge of past.
Just curious, why did u not go into properties? :confused: :confused:
I believe going into a fixed income bond fund maybe a good optiion. Its liquid and provides diversification. You can leverage up too to improve the yield. But the fall back is the high cost involved. As someone has said earlier on the sales fee can be exorbitant ~ 2 to 3 pct on the purchase value. However, should the NAV goes up the amount can be recovered though this a risk you have to take. Also not sure though whether this is a good time to go into a bond fund. The fear is bond fund may now be too high with interest rate having bottomed for quite a while already. Can anybody advise?:doh:
Fisherman : are u catching fish for me to eat? if yes, then I share...
Cost of borrowing : currently is at 1.5-1.8%
sales charge is around 3%
Of course, if you are talking about big money, then all the private bankers here are willing to sit down with u to bring down the charges. This is what happened to my friend, he just inked the deal this week.
As for timing, I will not advise...as I still want to eat good fish..
ABN lunching SGD bond on 17th Oct12. guidance 5% 10 yrs.
LTV should be around 50% to 65%. Std chart is the book runner.
Demand should be huge. Min amt 250k.
The recent launched ABN usd bond 6.25% 10 yrs on 7th sept12 was well rec'd. Price to buy is now 105.
rdgs,
Vic
It is never too late to start. But overall, u have done very well compared to a lot of others...
I suppose ur now a very busy daddy...enjoy the baby first....
Sleepless nights...
Not from helping.... but from the baby cries.. lol..
Sleepless nights...
Not from helping.... but from the baby cries.. lol..
forgot whether is a HE or SHE...
but definitely, this small one changes your life.....
bundle of joy and love
buttercarp
17-10-12, 14:58
Sleepless nights...
Not from helping.... but from the baby cries.. lol..
If you are not helping, then try sleeping in another room.
Bro, wa lau, you already answer everything on bonds already. You invest in bonds more than me.
Just curious, why did u not go into properties? :confused: :confused:
Wrong conviction.
1) Stocks was battered till so low.. how not to buy ..and how can it not be the next one to chiong.. so i Bought stocks monthly for the long term.. unfortunately, it went up and down every year to the same level.. So not much profit there.. Properties went up and up and up ... strange..
2) Guess the movement of interest rate wrongly. it was supposed to be QE1 and mass inflation and high borrowing costs to come.. It never did as QE2 came and LTRO came..and QE Infinity came. Euro did its part... and japan did its part... BOE did its part.. So interest rate is so low.. But in 2009-2010, i believed it will come up. I have never seen <3% interest rate in singapore..so my belief was this was an abornmality that will be corrected soon (since it's influenced by the US)
3) People's loss of faith in financial instruments while i kept my faith in those.
4) OVER-ANALYZING..and not using more guts. You see crisis ongoing.. how come property prices can chiong like that.. no reasons right...
5) Not meeting more property investors, like i say..if i meet laguna.. I might have changed my views earlier.
So now.. i am stuck between a rock and a hard place.. neither here nor there.
Wrong conviction.
5) Not meeting more property investors, like i say..if i meet laguna.. I might have changed my views earlier.
So now.. i am stuck between a rock and a hard place.. neither here nor there.
I doubt very much I could even influence you.
there are many people, sink in their belief so deeply and very difficult to crack and ask them to adopt others' view.
Bro, now I tell you an interesting story in 2008/9. I met up very regularly to play golf with my friend.
I told him "friend, stock market got beaten so bad, I think this is going to be prolonged. So go in monthly say 20K and accumulate over a year or 2".
Many months later, I met him and said,"Wa, you made money??? I went in big time when I saw the stocks moving up". Guess wat, kana whack by him - Why you go in big, you didnt tell me. I :scared-4:.
Same friend saw me going in props. So I explained the finer details and told him to go in. He went in 2009. Got out 2011. Made a cool 400K from a down of 200K. Thats it.
So I am very scared to give advise anymore. Give, they make - no thank you. If dont make, kana f. IF never keep them posted, also get f. Thankless job.
So I come forum to share, share but with no expectations of thanks from anyone. This is what I gladly do.
One question, do you have an investment property? If no, go in. Start with a small 1. Learn the ropes. If you are not in, how the HELL are you going to learn.
It is like me trying to show you how to swim. You watch from a tank for 1 year. After that, you jump into the pool, you think you know how to swim?
Pay to learn man. I just dont understand why you have so much cash and yet so scared???
Did you buy 10 bonds immediately???
Food for thought.
Wrong conviction.
1) Stocks was battered till so low.. how not to buy ..and how can it not be the next one to chiong.. so i Bought stocks monthly for the long term.. unfortunately, it went up and down every year to the same level.. So not much profit there.. Properties went up and up and up ... strange..
2) Guess the movement of interest rate wrongly. it was supposed to be QE1 and mass inflation and high borrowing costs to come.. It never did as QE2 came and LTRO came..and QE Infinity came. Euro did its part... and japan did its part... BOE did its part.. So interest rate is so low.. But in 2009-2010, i believed it will come up. I have never seen <3% interest rate in singapore..so my belief was this was an abornmality that will be corrected soon (since it's influenced by the US)
3) People's loss of faith in financial instruments while i kept my faith in those.
4) OVER-ANALYZING..and not using more guts. You see crisis ongoing.. how come property prices can chiong like that.. no reasons right...
5) Not meeting more property investors, like i say..if i meet laguna.. I might have changed my views earlier.
So now.. i am stuck between a rock and a hard place.. neither here nor there.
Someone mentioned Eastspring M class earlier. How is it? It has returns of 5%. Should one sell, if one has it?
Secretariat
17-10-12, 16:17
Wrong conviction.
1) Stocks was battered till so low.. how not to buy ..and how can it not be the next one to chiong.. so i Bought stocks monthly for the long term.. unfortunately, it went up and down every year to the same level.. So not much profit there.. Properties went up and up and up ... strange..
2) Guess the movement of interest rate wrongly. it was supposed to be QE1 and mass inflation and high borrowing costs to come.. It never did as QE2 came and LTRO came..and QE Infinity came. Euro did its part... and japan did its part... BOE did its part.. So interest rate is so low.. But in 2009-2010, i believed it will come up. I have never seen <3% interest rate in singapore..so my belief was this was an abornmality that will be corrected soon (since it's influenced by the US)
3) People's loss of faith in financial instruments while i kept my faith in those.
4) OVER-ANALYZING..and not using more guts. You see crisis ongoing.. how come property prices can chiong like that.. no reasons right...
5) Not meeting more property investors, like i say..if i meet laguna.. I might have changed my views earlier.
So now.. i am stuck between a rock and a hard place.. neither here nor there.
In my view, to drive the property prices higher (I am speaking of much higher), there is no doubt that there will be a stock market rally.
So hold on to the portfolio.
I doubt very much I could even influence you.
there are many people, sink in their belief so deeply and very difficult to crack and ask them to adopt others' view.
Sometimes..it is looking at people really doing it with confidence that you will be moved to re-examine your truism. :)
But of course..at this stage... i damn scared...
So I come forum to share, share but with no expectations of thanks from anyone. This is what I gladly do.
One question, do you have an investment property? If no, go in. Start with a small 1. Learn the ropes. If you are not in, how the HELL are you going to learn.
It is like me trying to show you how to swim. You watch from a tank for 1 year. After that, you jump into the pool, you think you know how to swim?
Pay to learn man. I just dont understand why you have so much cash and yet so scared???
Did you buy 10 bonds immediately???
Food for thought.
Yup. I only like to ask people what they are doing.. Will not ask them to give advice. Coz what they do is more important than what they tell you. Bankers can give advice.. the real doers INVEST! ..
Agreed. I need to go in. But I can only think of commercial in Singapore or the Australia market. I think I am seeing what is happening in singapore in 2009, happening in australia market. Their interest rate is climbing down now and people who are stuck with high loan interest for years will think the same way as me.. it is an abnormality that wil correct itself soon. But it won't..
of course.. investing is about TAKING ACTION. I talked too much.. Do too little.
Bonds was also thru a half-year purchase at different timing. Most of it was acquired after I disposed of my stocks before the august 2011 selldown. Of course, i re-acquired stocks again from jan to feb 2012.. but not as much weightage.
Well.. Too conservative loh. Now trying to open up. Anyway, Dr MIchael Leong also don't leverage .. the shareinvestor founder who sold out his company to SPH for $10mil. He's only investing in shares and properties for him is for staying not investing. Just pointing him out to share there are people like him who is rich and still don't believe in leverage and properties. While some are as rich but believe totally in properties and leverage.
I'm now swaying to the properties and leverage camp.. but a little too late in singapore perharps.
Focus, Focus
ur too focus. I recalled most of your postings, were focused on the achievements in the past, min leverage, missed here and there...etc
just take stock and decide where you want to go, what you want to do...and game move on like that...
u have the knowledge, perhaps lack of little wisdom and gut feel
Focus, specialise in something and I believe you have found it. I am in no way advocating properties.
There are people who make way more out of spotting good stocks then a person who had gone in with properties.
So you choose what you want. But please dont look at the swimming pool and keep telling yourself "wouldn't it be nice if I can swim like this guy (butterfly strokes)", but you cant even change to a swimming trunk let alone, touch the pool. It will bring you pain.
You are already doing well and I wish you well in your endeavour.
One more thing, you keep talking about leverage - I hope you are in no way referring to me. I am way under leverage !!! Hahahahaha. Why? I want to sleep well at nite but bloody problem is I keep waking up in the middle of the nite and realised, people at my age generally have this problem. Hahahaha.
Cheers !!! :cheers1:
thanks both chestnut and laguna.
yup. sitting on my butt.
Analysis paralysis. :)
That's why my nick is focus.. i realised i need focus.. and ACTION..
so maybe need a new nick.. JUSTDOIT.
Laguna.. ya.. take stock and move on .. I will do that definitely. ACTION ACTION ACTION.
chestnut, not talking about you. I'm just saying too much leverage on financial instruments is no no for me. I will be scared to sleep every nite. But maybe those who have more wisdom are using it successfully. Not me.
Focus : sharing with us your decision...
So I am very scared to give advise anymore. Give, they make - no thank you. If dont make, kana f. IF never keep them posted, also get f. Thankless job.
So I come forum to share, share but with no expectations of thanks from anyone. This is what I gladly do.
Yes, same here.
Now, I have distant quite a number of friends due to my so called "ADVICE" but they did not act on, and blamed me heavily. Somehow, itch again, made calls in REITs and BONDs early this year...got whack again.
Yes, same here.
Now, I have distant quite a number of friends due to my so called "ADVICE" but they did not act on, and blamed me heavily. Somehow, itch again, made calls in REITs and BONDs early this year...got whack again.
Poor thing. The happiest moment for me was when my 1 down bought investment properties and now happily collecting rental. But w this financial measure, I told them they cannot play anymore. If not I need to give them big increment. Then I will get shit. So sad :(
Secretariat
18-10-12, 07:37
Sometime, it is just a matter of keeping your ears on the ground.
I recalled the fateful dinner that we had in July 2009, a group of us doing the usual friendly bantering, tcss over nothing important, and the conversation veered to condo investment, which one was good to buy la, potential yields la and so on. I told them "listen, this is what my agent has been telling me...the best buy now is landed!...FH terraces in Serangoon Garden, Thomson, Sembawang Hill are being offered at about $500 psf".
And then we had the chorus of reactions, "sure or not,...not possible la,...don't bluff". At the end of more bantering, four of us decided to explore the possibility further in earnest.
We retained the agent to scout for units in these areas for our review, and eventually each bought a unit, I picked up one, my wife another, all in original condition, single storey terraces on land about 2000 sqf built in the 1960s, at prices $1.0 mil to $1.2 mil each.
We spent another $500,000 or so each, to tear down the old dwelling to reconstruct a new 2.5-storeys building in 2010. One of us, a lady in early 40s, sold her reconstructed unit at $2.0 mil just after its completion. Another, a young chap in mid 30s, he was staying in a 3-rooms HDB with her widowed mother, didn't do anything to the old house at all, but sold it off just 2 months ago at $2.0 mil, grossing him $1.0 mil in just over a year. His deployed capital? Just more than $250,000.
When we looked back, we all thought that the situation was really weird. In July 2009, the stock markets had already recovered most of its plunge, the economy was not great but ok, with still some unemployment issue, and yet this mispricing opportunity was presented to us. Once we acted on it, the rest is history.
Spoken like a champ. I keep my eyes wide open and my ears ever listening. Look at history. It always repeats somewhat w some twist here and there. If u see the climb to 1997, it is somewhat similar. Landed was last to cheong. So history repeats itself. Dig back some newspaper clippings if u can find and the same story. Landed limited. Very exclusive, blah, blah, blah...
Only for Singaporeans.
Then came 1997 Asia financial crisis. It was this that put a halt to the entire show. If not it would have continued.
But wat remains the same is: with a MAJOR crisis and huge unemployment coupled w long recession, the prices will drop big time. I have asked anyone to show me when prices drop big time and did not correlate to the long recession but none can show me proof.
That's why I keep stressing- knowledge of past is an important guide to the future. Notice I used the word GUIDE.
That's how great conquerors win the battle.
Well done mr secretary.
Sometime, it is just a matter of keeping your ears on the ground.
I recalled the fateful dinner that we had in July 2009, a group of us doing the usual friendly bantering, tcss over nothing important, and the conversation veered to condo investment, which one was good to buy la, potential yields la and so on. I told them "listen, this is what my agent has been telling me...the best buy now is landed!...FH terraces in Serangoon Garden, Thomson, Sembawang Hill are being offered at about $500 psf".
And then we had the chorus of reactions, "sure or not,...not possible la,...don't bluff". At the end of more bantering, four of us decided to explore the possibility further in earnest.
We retained the agent to scout for units in these areas for our review, and eventually each bought a unit, I picked up one, my wife another, all in original condition, single storey terraces on land about 2000 sqf built in the 1960s, at prices $1.0 mil to $1.2 mil each.
We spent another $500,000 or so each, to tear down the old dwelling to reconstruct a new 2.5-storeys building in 2010. One of us, a lady in early 40s, sold her reconstructed unit at $2.0 mil just after its completion. Another, a young chap in mid 30s, he was staying in a 3-rooms HDB with her widowed mother, didn't do anything to the old house at all, but sold it off just 2 months ago at $2.0 mil, grossing him $1.0 mil in just over a year. His deployed capital? Just more than $250,000.
When we looked back, we all thought that the situation was really weird. In July 2009, the stock markets had already recovered most of its plunge, the economy was not great but ok, with still some unemployment issue, and yet this mispricing opportunity was presented to us. Once we acted on it, the rest is history.
Secretariat
18-10-12, 10:21
Bro, what you said is so true.
In fact, what intrigued me to the landed sector, there is also an interesting case.
My wife, one of her ex-subordinate, a single lady in mid-40s, she lived in a HDB flat with her retired parents. She is a dog-lover, she has 3 purebred dogs, and so she was always complaining that, "aiyah, HDB flat ah no room for her dogs la, her dogs not enough exercise la, pangsai very troublesome la...etc". She vowed to get a landed just for the dogs, and no terrace, must be semi-d with a big compound for the dogs to run on...
And so, early 2009, she bought a semi-d, FH, at the area just a short distance from where FEO's Cabana is, a rather nice terrained place. $1.4 mil, put in another $700,000 for reconstruction, totaled $2.1 mil. Moved in with her dogs, her parents rented out the HDB, living happily seeing her happy dogs.
But where are they now?
About 4 months ago, my wife received her resignation, she sold the semi-d at $4.8 mil, and migrated everyone to Vancouver Canada, together with the dogs (she got the PR there, and her parents still on social visit passes). Bought a house there at about $300,000 Canadian, and in progress of opening a small cafe to keep herself busy while looking for a permanent job.
So, she has not been the one sophisticated about investment, parked all her money in FDs basically, indulged on her dogs etc, and the dogs led her to a decision that changed her life totally.
How many lucky people are like that? I rather be lucky then smart. But if you have both, Shiok.
This is what I call a total alignment of stars. Right time, right place, Everything fall in place. She also has done many good deeds in life and this is the return she received. I strongly believe in Karma. If people do you wrong, ignore them. If you want, do good deeds but expect no return but somehow the returns will find their way to you.
Enjoy your landed. You deserve it.
Bro, what you said is so true.
In fact, what intrigued me to the landed sector, there is also an interesting case.
My wife, one of her ex-subordinate, a single lady in mid-40s, she lived in a HDB flat with her retired parents. She is a dog-lover, she has 3 purebred dogs, and so she was always complaining that, "aiyah, HDB flat ah no room for her dogs la, her dogs not enough exercise la, pangsai very troublesome la...etc". She vowed to get a landed just for the dogs, and no terrace, must be semi-d with a big compound for the dogs to run on...
And so, early 2009, she bought a semi-d, FH, at the area just a short distance from where FEO's Cabana is, a rather nice terrained place. $1.4 mil, put in another $700,000 for reconstruction, totaled $2.1 mil. Moved in with her dogs, her parents rented out the HDB, living happily seeing her happy dogs.
But where are they now?
About 4 months ago, my wife received her resignation, she sold the semi-d at $4.8 mil, and migrated everyone to Vancouver Canada, together with the dogs (she got the PR there, and her parents still on social visit passes). Bought a house there at about $300,000 Canadian, and in progress of opening a small cafe to keep herself busy while looking for a permanent job.
So, she has not been the one sophisticated about investment, parked all her money in FDs basically, indulged on her dogs etc, and the dogs led her to a decision that changed her life totally.
So, she has not been the one sophisticated about investment, parked all her money in FDs basically, indulged on her dogs etc, and the dogs led her to a decision that changed her life totally.
走狗屎运
i sibei jealous :D
走狗屎运
i sibei jealous :D
Bro, dont be jealous. Be happy. Because got such people, there is a possibility that your turn might come.
I am always happy when I hear of people's success and sad when I hear of their failure.
Second option, keep 3 big dogs. Hahaha. Second option is just TCSS.
Secretariat
18-10-12, 11:01
走狗屎运
i sibei jealous :D
Woof, woof....hahaha
Oh yes, she is a very nice lady. Quite pretty also, but no love here in Singapore. Maybe in Canada.
how does she has so much money to buy and reno the landed ?
amazing lady
ABN Amro finds liquidity in Singapore dollar bond market
ABN Amro wades into the Singapore market with a S$1 billion tier-2 issue as banks look to shore up their capital structures.
By Denise Wee (http://www.financeasia.com/Author/337980,denise-wee.aspx) | 18 October 2012
Keywords: abn amro (http://www.financeasia.com/Tag/abn_amro.aspx) | singapore dollar bond (http://www.financeasia.com/Tag/singapore_dollar_bond.aspx) | tier 2 (http://www.financeasia.com/Tag/tier_2.aspx) | hybrid (http://www.financeasia.com/Tag/hybrid.aspx) | loss absorption (http://www.financeasia.com/Tag/loss_absorption.aspx) | dbs (http://www.financeasia.com/Tag/dbs.aspx) | ubs (http://www.financeasia.com/Tag/ubs.aspx) | standard chartered (http://www.financeasia.com/Tag/standard_chartered.aspx)
inShare (javascript:void(0);)0
With Basel III around the corner, banks worldwide are looking to shore up their capital. Last night, ABN Amro closed a S$1 billion ($822 million) tier-2 issue, and proved that there is ample demand for European hybrid paper in the Singapore dollar bond market. The deal attracted a whopping S$17 billion of orders from 170 accounts.
“It was the first public bond deal for ABN Amro in the Sing dollar market, and they achieved cost savings of about 30bp compared to the dollar market for the same structure,” said a source. “There is clearly unfulfilled demand for European bank paper in Singapore dollars.”
The Dutch bank does not do much business in Singapore — not enough to justify raising S$1 billion anyway — and the bank is expected to swap the proceeds.
The tier-2 paper has a loss-absorption feature, so it was also a test of investor appetite for such bonds. They will have statutory loss absorption only if ABN’s regulatory regime in the Netherlands calls for it.
The 10-year non-call five-year bond priced at a yield of 4.7%, at the tight end of the 4.7% to 4.8% final guidance. The hybrid priced at a spread of 379bp over the five-year swap offer rate (SOR). There is a single reset at the fifth year at a spread of 379bp over the prevailing five-year SOR if the bonds are not called, and no step up.
Singapore investors were allocated 65%, other Asian investors 31% and European investors 4%. Private banks were allocated 58%, fund managers 31%, banks 5%, insurers 3% and other investors 3%.
ABN Amro is rated A2 by Moody’s and A+ by Standard & Poor’s and Fitch, but the subordinated bond was a few notches lower and is expected to be rated BBB+ by S&P and BBB by Fitch.
DBS (http://www.financeasia.com/Tag/dbs.aspx), Standard Chartered (http://www.financeasia.com/Tag/standard_chartered.aspx) and UBS (http://www.financeasia.com/Tag/ubs.aspx) were joint bookrunners.
© Haymarket Media Limited. All rights reserved.
how does she has so much money to buy and reno the landed ?
amazing lady
and this lady is Secretariat's wife's subordinate.. if her subordinate is earning enough to do a downpayment (using 20% as the bare minimum but maybe she paid down more?) + reno of at least 1mil, then imagine how much Secretariat's wife is earning! :hell-hath-no-fury: :D
and this lady is Secretariat's wife's subordinate.. if her subordinate is earning enough to do a downpayment (using 20% as the bare minimum but maybe she paid down more?) + reno of at least 1mil, then imagine how much Secretariat's wife is earning! :hell-hath-no-fury: :D
i am sure Secretariet also richie rich as he himself also made from landed. "He and his wife bought a landed each"....
i am sure Secretariet also richie rich as he himself also made from landed. "He and his wife bought a landed each"....
poorie poor like me always admire these pple... :p hopefully when i'm 40 i can also emulate them and be able to plonk down 700k on renovation!
Secretariat
18-10-12, 11:57
and this lady is Secretariat's wife's subordinate.. if her subordinate is earning enough to do a downpayment (using 20% as the bare minimum but maybe she paid down more?) + reno of at least 1mil, then imagine how much Secretariat's wife is earning! :hell-hath-no-fury: :D
Aiyah, don't have to come up with a lumpsum of $700,000 for reconstruction one mah? Even if she has it, it still made sense to borrow since the interest rate was so low (still low today). It is called construction loan, LTV guideline applied, and after TOP obtained, convert it into an ordinary housing loan.
My wife ah, I don't know her earning leh...what she earns is hers, what I earn also hers...hahaha.
But seriously, if you know of people working for listed American MNC, their (those qualified ones) yearly stock options can be shocking. One Country Manager that I know, based in China, his stock option exercised last year grossed him $500,000. Which he promptly used as part deposits for 2 units of Watertown, before the wife or mistress got to the money.
Secretariat
18-10-12, 12:27
I think that what Chestnut has pointed out are very true; historical prices, prices correlation with interest rate, with other investment class of instrument such as stock, knowledge of finance, risk reward etc etc.
When I first studied the landed sector, financing of reconstruction etc, many times the reaction was also..."like that also can ah?". :doh:
With the knowledge, the risk of executing a plan, the downside risks, can be better measured.
Copied the following from another thread
Just to consolidate discussion on bond under this thread
if U want to simply want to better used of your >$300k cash to beat inflation. U should look into BOND. Today, OUE (4% ) 7yrs new bond is 9x oversubscribe.This OUE bond LTV is 70%. If U get allocation. U only need to come out cash $75k to buy 1 lot (min $250k). The rest $175k is borrowed @ interest rate 1.35%. So your effective yield is actually 8%. U can sell the bond anytime.
The rich people are moving into Bond, not property. U can find out more from your Std chart or DBS relationship manager. U need to wait for a stock mkt deep correction maybe next yr to be able to buy the SG bond at good price. Start to find out more about bond.
rdgs,
Vic
As for the new bond issue, SCB will not give u upfront leverage financing, ie u need to come out with the full $250,000 first, and once ur alloted, then u can apply for the leverage. Once the leverage comes, u can only buy over OTC at a min of $250,000. I am not sure about DBS as their pricing is not so attractive to me.
For the OUE case, it is over-subscribed within 10 minutes, only institution buyers, with a size of only $200m and there is no LTV given for this. With such a small sze issue, u hardly can find an OTC market. And, u cannot even get one lot if ur just a small fish of 1 lot.
On top of this, there is a custodian fee, I cannot recall the %.
BTW, u must be quite a big customer with DBS or SCB to have a cost of fund of 1.35%.
In average, the leverage cost is 1.55% to 1.8%pa, depends on who you are.
also forgot to add, there is a spread when u buy / sell at OTC, I think is 0.5%
I think chestnut have mentioned before.. what is the focus here..
if you want income, bonds might be the instrument..
but if you want capital appreciation, property will be the instrument.
But definitely agree bonds with leverage is damn good returns. Now is only how much risk appetite you have. Maybe cbsh378$784 can shed some light on how he mitigate the risks of borrowing costs going up and his risk management or money management on bonds.
Copied the following from another thread
Just to consolidate discussion on bond under this thread
Have no experience with Bond.
Could you explain what is leverage cost of 1.5-1.8%.
If one buys and sells the bond, what is the total cost involved 2.5-3.0%?
That means if Bond pays say 4% per year, if one sells within a year, does it mean its only 1% returns if Bond prices remains the same?
Any other hidden costs ivolved?
Thanks
Have no experience with Bond.
Could you explain what is leverage cost of 1.5-1.8%.
If one buys and sells the bond, what is the total cost involved 2.5-3.0%?
That means if Bond pays say 4% per year, if one sells within a year, does it mean its only 1% returns if Bond prices remains the same?
Any other hidden costs ivolved?
Thanks
This is too much to write for me.
Let Focus, Chestnut, the younger ones to share with u. They are better than me.
the only Bond I know is James Bond.
the only Bond I know is James Bond.
yaya, I am waiting for the SKYFALL......
I nvr miss any of the James Bond show...
buttercarp
23-10-12, 09:00
yaya, I am waiting for the SKYFALL......
I nvr miss any of the James Bond show...
Adele sings the theme song.
I like her.
However I think the theme song does not seem to suit her voice.
phantom_opera
23-10-12, 09:09
Bond is in a huge bubble ... underweight
extracted the following from eCO thread
I believe property will not crash due to the low interest rate. So does BOND.
If interest rate will to slowly creep up 2-3%. You have plenty of time to sell your bond. As for property, U need to wait till the 5th year to be able to sell due to the stamp duty penalty. If U cant rent out. U need to come out 30k to 40k/yr or more (50k/yr) to service your loan , property tax & maintenance fee. U really need to have a deep pocket for this property investment.
rdgs,
Vic
are you a bond salesman? you describe it like the best thing since slice bread.
and by the way, bonds aren't without their downside, because of the excessive yield compression, when interest rates rise, those low yielders are going to be hit first, and it could hit faster than you can call your broker to sell ah. And in an OTC market, bear in mind you have to deal with bid offer spreads that may widen in times of less favourable market conditions.
but please take this bond discussion to the other thread, i have no wish to continue talking about bonds in Eco's thread.
Bond and Property are illiquid. So go for stocks , forummer shld not be afraid of investing in stocks. Rule, avoid S-chip and have a balance portfolio,
Bond and Property are illiquid. So go for stocks , forummer shld not be afraid of investing in stocks. Rule, avoid S-chip and have a balance portfolio,
This is the first time I heard of bond is illiquid.
There are many type of bonds in the market, and some are well listed in various major exchanges including Singapore, NY and DAX, so please don't make a sweeping statement as such.
This is the first time I heard of bond is illiquid.
There are many type of bonds in the market, and some are well listed in various major exchanges including Singapore, NY and DAX, so please don't make a sweeping statement as such.
of course, if you refer to bond listed in US but then the administrative and takes a bit of knowledge for an average investor to get in. as u mentioned before, certain, requires minimum entry capital and blah blah...
who knows it's another minibond case where u have to scrutinised the details within 1000pages of proposal ...and gosh u have to sit down with the banker (who knows nothing more) to sell u the bond which they wrapped around with rubbish collaterals.
if u buy local bond there u can see liquidity of the bid spread in Sgx on daily market
Bond is in a huge bubble ... underweight
I wanted to write something on this topic, but just too tired..
just got a 3.5hours of massage...
going for a show tonite....
buttercarp
23-10-12, 19:19
I wanted to write something on this topic, but just too tired..
just got a 3.5hours of massage...
going for a show tonite....
Wow, what kind of massage ;) ?
Last for so long!
No wonder you feel tired......:sleep:
After show, then supper :) ?
I wanted to write something on this topic, but just too tired..
just got a 3.5hours of massage...
going for a show tonite....
3.5 hrs? Whole body massage 再加强 :D
Could you explain what is leverage cost of 1.5-1.8%.
U borrow from the bank at SIBOR plus 1.5-1.8%. Depending on your relation , the spread can be lower.
If one buys and sells the bond, what is the total cost involved 2.5-3.0%?
Depends on bid/offer spread. Banks take mkt price plus 0.5 usually. Custodian of the bond, some are charging some are not.
OUE 4.1 is considered low already. OLAM did a 6.1 not long ago.
This topic is not for every one. If you have the capacity to get leverage to buy bond, you are wealthy enough to know where to derive yield and where the risks are. Your own judgment here.
@lovelle, minibond is not a bond, it is a credit derivative. Bond itself is not a derivative. It is a simple IOU. Even added with some convertible or indexation , it is still by and large a debt. If you worry about it collapses like minibond, you just need to be extra vigilant on the issuer.
@lovelle, minibond is not a bond, it is a credit derivative. Bond itself is not a derivative. It is a simple IOU. Even added with some convertible or indexation , it is still by and large a debt. If you worry about it collapses like minibond, you just need to be extra vigilant on the issuer.
hi amk
in the past, nobody knows whether minibond was not a bond. Read the news , many poor souls were told it is safe, capital g'teed and it is a BOND by rm. One will only know that it is not a bond after going thru 1000 pages of fine details or hidden little font of statement that highlight the actual risk..
i may not know what is the risk of perpetual bond, preference bond, etc bond that were sold in the market but i do knw SGS bond is safe..
personally, i have capmall corp bond which i have to ballot for it. So it is not easy to buy if u are small fry...
That's why MAS now says derivative products can only be sold to sophisticated investors.
In any case, most bond sizes are big, no retail investor is eligible anyway.
phantom_opera
23-10-12, 22:49
hi amk
in the past, nobody knows whether minibond was not a bond. Read the news , many poor souls were told it is safe, capital g'teed and it is a BOND by rm. One will only know that it is not a bond after going thru 1000 pages of fine details or hidden little font of statement that highlight the actual risk..
i may not know what is the risk of perpetual bond, preference bond, etc bond that were sold in the market but i do knw SGS bond is safe..
personally, i have capmall corp bond which i have to ballot for it. So it is not easy to buy if u are small fry...
you can always add to your CapMall Corp bond after IPO in open market... I did just that using my SRS, but not listed under CPF OA :cheers6:
3.5 hrs? Whole body massage 再加强 :D
It supposed to be a 2 hours session, but my body condition is so bad...so just added with good essential oil...now body ache alr.
It supposed to be a 2 hours session, but my body condition is so bad...so just added with good essential oil...now body ache alr.
Hi Laguna, wheres good for massage? me need one!:rolleyes:
When I started looking into bond, I could not find a lot of information / books on bond, what to look for etc. The only thing I know is bond is related to interest.
So, I got a bond trader, gave me two hours tution in front of his Bloomberge station and then talked to a few bankers on this. But you must get a banker who is specialised in this field.
Some considerations are :
1. issuers - fundamental
2. collateral, snr or jr secured or non-secured
3. tenure eg perpetual or fixed tenure
4. cummulative or not
5. callable or not
6. credit grading
7. issue size
8. currency
9. interest rate of that particular currency
10. past dividend history and profit
11. cash position.
BTW, I don't have any straight corporate bond.
Perhaps, other bond investors can add on to my list.
Hi Laguna, wheres good for massage? me need one!:rolleyes:
I will PM u tomorrow.
I have been going to massage for at least 20 years, and become picky. I have sacked many of them within 10-20 minutes.
But for this woman, I must give her the due credit. She can spot where go wrong and use the correct type of stroke and strength.
I will PM u tomorrow.
I have been going to massage for at least 20 years, and become picky. I have sacked many of them within 10-20 minutes.
But for this woman, I must give her the due credit. She can spot where go wrong and use the correct type of stroke and strength.
thanks! i been going to 1 around siglap, Javanese type. you?
thanks! i been going to 1 around siglap, Javanese type. you?
I know this is, Javanese is shiok shiok only...but not for treatment.
This one is really VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY pain.....I shouted a few rounds and asked her to stop. But u can feel the effect of the pain spot after the massage.
alamah, off the track again...
I know this is, Javanese is shiok shiok only...but not for treatment.
This one is really VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY pain.....I shouted a few rounds and asked her to stop. But u can feel the effect of the pain spot after the massage.
alamah, off the track again...
woah u need to start another thread? haha. so urs is the traditional chinese tui na?
woah u need to start another thread? haha. so urs is the traditional chinese tui na?
pressure points + mainly tui,
Some considerations are :
1. issuers - fundamental
2. collateral, snr or jr secured or non-secured
3. tenure eg perpetual or fixed tenure
4. cummulative or not
5. callable or not
6. credit grading
7. issue size
8. currency
9. interest rate of that particular currency
10. past dividend history and profit
11. cash position.
Perhaps, other bond investors can add on to my list.
In fact, there are still quite a lot to add. I stop here unless I can get some tution fee.
buttercarp
23-10-12, 23:39
thanks! i been going to 1 around siglap, Javanese type. you?
Me too, but not very effective.
I will PM u tomorrow.
I have been going to massage for at least 20 years, and become picky. I have sacked many of them within 10-20 minutes.
But for this woman, I must give her the due credit. She can spot where go wrong and use the correct type of stroke and strength.
Hi Laguna, I also wanna know, please?
Oh pretty please you must share with me your tuina shifu...
By the way, Dow seems to be down almost 2% today.
I will PM u tomorrow.
I have been going to massage for at least 20 years, and become picky. I have sacked many of them within 10-20 minutes.
But for this woman, I must give her the due credit. She can spot where go wrong and use the correct type of stroke and strength.
Can you PM me too? I have tried many but couldn't find a satisfactory one.
you can always add to your CapMall Corp bond after IPO in open market... I did just that using my SRS, but not listed under CPF OA :cheers6:
buy from market is 1.028+0.002
pay higher
I bought my condo @ 1.2m in 2005. In 2010, valuation is @2m. I took a equity loan of
[email protected]% interest rate to buy in 3 lots (750k) DBS 4.7% pref bond. So every year, I collect (4.7%-1.3%-0.1% Custodian fee X 750k)
SGD$24.75k of dividend. The $24.75k will pay for my mortgage loan , property tax & maintenace fee.
The smart & rich investors bought a US$5m universal whole life (not term) in 2009 . They pay the min amt to be insured US$5m. Draw down a USD loan to buy USD bond fund. The yearly bond dividend (5%) will pay for the yearly premium. This is what they hv done to ensure that it the event something happen to them. Their children will not be left with little money.
rdgs,
Vic
I wanted to write something on this topic, but just too tired..
just got a 3.5hours of massage...
going for a show tonite....
I tot pple say massage best at 30 mins or else damaging to body?
Can share which expert masseur is that? Interested to bring my parents go as my dad has quite bad rheumatism.
buttercarp
24-10-12, 10:12
I bought my condo @ 1.2m in 2005. In 2010, valuation is @2m. I took a equity loan of
[email protected]% interest rate to buy in 3 lots (750k) DBS 4.7% pref bond. So every year, I collect (4.7%-1.3%-0.1% Custodian fee X 750k)
SGD$24.75k of dividend. The $24.75k will pay for my mortgage loan , property tax & maintenace fee.
The smart & rich investors bought a US$5m universal whole life (not term) in 2009 . They pay the min amt to be insured US$5m. Draw down a USD loan to buy USD bond fund. The yearly bond dividend (5%) will pay for the yearly premium. This is what they hv done to ensure that it the event something happen to them. Their children will not be left with little money.
rdgs,
Vic
Wow, you really make money work for you!
Btw, is the condo the only home you have?
If so, isn't it a bit risky to put all the 750k in one basket?
Just asking only.... want to learn more from your experience.
I bought my condo @ 1.2m in 2005. In 2010, valuation is @2m. I took a equity loan of
[email protected]% interest rate to buy in 3 lots (750k) DBS 4.7% pref bond. So every year, I collect (4.7%-1.3%-0.1% Custodian fee X 750k)
SGD$24.75k of dividend. The $24.75k will pay for my mortgage loan , property tax & maintenace fee.
The smart & rich investors bought a US$5m universal whole life (not term) in 2009 . They pay the min amt to be insured US$5m. Draw down a USD loan to buy USD bond fund. The yearly bond dividend (5%) will pay for the yearly premium. This is what they hv done to ensure that it the event something happen to them. Their children will not be left with little money.
rdgs,
Vic
was this an advice by banker ?
was this an advice by banker ?
This is not an advise by the banker. I really want to make full use whatever cash avail to buy only bond DBS pref bond at that time. I sold my DBS pref bond in 2011 & switch to OUE & Lipomall straight bond @4.95% & 5.875% respectively.
rdgs,
Vic
buttercarp
24-10-12, 11:00
This is not an advise by the banker. I really want to make full use whatever cash avail to buy only bond DBS pref bond at that time. I sold my DBS pref bond in 2011 & switch to OUE & Lipomall straight bond @4.95% & 5.875% respectively.
rdgs,
Vic
Wow, you are really an investment savy person!
Good for you!
Just by looking at the way you invest makes me dizzy.
LOL.... today I learn something new from you.
This is not an advise by the banker. I really want to make full use whatever cash avail to buy only bond DBS pref bond at that time. I sold my DBS pref bond in 2011 & switch to OUE & Lipomall straight bond @4.95% & 5.875% respectively.
rdgs,
Vic
how do u buy these stuff ?
buttercarp
24-10-12, 11:49
This is not an advise by the banker. I really want to make full use whatever cash avail to buy only bond DBS pref bond at that time. I sold my DBS pref bond in 2011 & switch to OUE & Lipomall straight bond @4.95% & 5.875% respectively.
rdgs,
Vic
Hi vic,
you said you bought the DBS preferential bond in 2010, then sold in 2011.
Usually what is the tenure of the bond?
If you redeem it earlier how much will be forfeited?
These are Preference Shares not real bonds...some bond-like attributes but not real bonds. Riskier than bonds in that they rank below bonds but above shares.
Hi vic,
you said you bought the DBS preferential bond in 2010, then sold in 2011.
Usually what is the tenure of the bond?
If you redeem it earlier how much will be forfeited?
I bought DBS pref bond @ 100. Sell @101.
OUE 4.95% 7 yrs @ 100. price now 102+
Lippomall 5.875% 5 yrs @ 100. Bond price now 105+
Check with your banker to study into bond investment.
A more simple bond investment is unit trust.
rdgs,
Vic
buttercarp
24-10-12, 12:16
I bought DBS pref bond @ 100. Sell @101.
OUE 4.95% 7 yrs @ 100. price now 102+
Lippomall 5.875% 5 yrs @ 100. Bond price now 105+
Check with your banker to study into bond investment.
A more simple bond investment is unit trust.
rdgs,
Vic
Thanks vic :) .
You got me interested.
However, it is all greek to me at the moment.
I have unit trust tagged together with my life insurance but don't understand how it really works.
Now that I am interested, I will do research to understand better.
Bro, for universal life, please make sure the insurer is super solid. In event of insolvency of the insurer, the guarantee amount is a few hundred thousand. I cannot remember the amount. U can check w your insurer. So if u take 5 mil, it is better to spread it out. There is another way to do universal life at lower premium but do tedious to explain. It is like leverage and upon death, the outstanding 'loan' is deducted from the total payout.
I bought my condo @ 1.2m in 2005. In 2010, valuation is @2m. I took a equity loan of
[email protected]% interest rate to buy in 3 lots (750k) DBS 4.7% pref bond. So every year, I collect (4.7%-1.3%-0.1% Custodian fee X 750k)
SGD$24.75k of dividend. The $24.75k will pay for my mortgage loan , property tax & maintenace fee.
The smart & rich investors bought a US$5m universal whole life (not term) in 2009 . They pay the min amt to be insured US$5m. Draw down a USD loan to buy USD bond fund. The yearly bond dividend (5%) will pay for the yearly premium. This is what they hv done to ensure that it the event something happen to them. Their children will not be left with little money.
rdgs,
Vic
Secretariat
24-10-12, 19:00
I bought my condo @ 1.2m in 2005. In 2010, valuation is @2m. I took a equity loan of
[email protected]% interest rate to buy in 3 lots (750k) DBS 4.7% pref bond. So every year, I collect (4.7%-1.3%-0.1% Custodian fee X 750k)
SGD$24.75k of dividend. The $24.75k will pay for my mortgage loan , property tax & maintenace fee.
rdgs,
Vic
You are doing all these just for the $25,000?
With borrowed money, and unhedged I suppose.
This thread getting more interesting. Universal Life also mentioned.
This thread getting more interesting. Universal Life also mentioned.
Bro, be careful of universal. The insurer must be super strong. If they go bust, Singapore only guarantee only a certain amount. Really cannot remember the amount but super small. So if u want to get big amount, better spread. Same to deposits in bank.
phantom_opera
24-10-12, 19:29
Everybody is hungry of Yield and discounting risk
Everybody is hungry of Yield and discounting risk
Fully agreed, especially in the high yield bond area
posted the write up on massage in here
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=15395&page=5
Sorry I can't believe ppl are so happy buying universal life. The ONLY purpose of universal life is to avoid estate duty / inheritance tax. Since SG had abolished estate duty, the whole purpose of universal life is moot.
@cbsh, I'm surprised you buy/sell bond like shares. Corp bond bid offer spread is not small, plus bank takes a 50bps cut. Buy sell within 1yr dun gain you much. Bond is meant to be held to maturity. Unless you need the cash. Retail bonds, those can buy at thousands, usually have lowere yield. Companies are taking advantages of the retail public since they cannot do 250k. Bond fund is even worse. Exactly because retail investors cannot do big size, they get you to invest in their fund to buy bond, and pay them fee for doing something very simple.
This is not an advise by the banker. I really want to make full use whatever cash avail to buy only bond DBS pref bond at that time. I sold my DBS pref bond in 2011 & switch to OUE & Lipomall straight bond @4.95% & 5.875% respectively.
rdgs,
Vic
Hi Vic
is that all u have done in bonds?
I think u can learn more from Focus, he has better picks than u.
Bro, for universal life, please make sure the insurer is super solid. In event of insolvency of the insurer, the guarantee amount is a few hundred thousand. I cannot remember the amount. U can check w your insurer. So if u take 5 mil, it is better to spread it out. There is another way to do universal life at lower premium but do tedious to explain. It is like leverage and upon death, the outstanding 'loan' is deducted from the total payout.
HSBC , std chart & credit sui offer this universal life plan. So it is safe.
rdgs,
Vic
Some specific Qs to ask experts here.
Does Bond value go below 100? Does this happen only when bank interest rates rise? Can issurer reduce the projected yield?
Will there be buyers everything you wish to sell?
When Bond value rises beyond 103, is it still worth getting into?
Hi Vic
is that all u have done in bonds?
I think u can learn more from Focus, he has better picks than u.
I have ABN , Banyan Tree , OUE , Lippomall , Shui On , Noble,Olam, Petra Food ,Hutchison, Cheung kong, Citi pacific etc etc. LTV ave 58%.
Coupon est 180k to 200k/yr after deducting loan interest rate & custodian fee. 80% are straight bond. The rest are perp bond.
Bank takes 0.2bps. Need to monitor closely the sign of raising rate. Will likely to sell some early 2014.
HSBC , std chart & credit sui offer this universal life plan. So it is safe.
rdgs,
Vic
They offering thru an insurer. They are not the insurer. If u have already taken, ok. If you have not and going to take, I suggest u take term but if u really want to take, spread it out. Find out if the insurer goes kaput, what is the max payout. I don't think any of the local insurance coy does universal.
Those who bought universal life related product few years ago in US$ would have their values devalue with the drop in US$ -SGD exchange rate. What if one day 1US$ = 1SGD? :beats-me-man:
HSBC , std chart & credit sui offer this universal life plan. So it is safe.
rdgs,
Vic
I have ABN , Banyan Tree , OUE , Lippomall , Shui On , Noble,Olam, Petra Food ,Hutchison, Cheung kong, Citi pacific etc etc. LTV ave 58%.
Coupon est 180k to 200k/yr after deducting loan interest rate & custodian fee. 80% are straight bond. The rest are perp bond.
Bank takes 0.2bps. Need to monitor closely the sign of raising rate. Will likely to sell some early 2014.
haha, after I said, Focus is better, then u show your true colour....with etc etc...
your coupon is in the range of 5%, net give u 3.7%, income say $200,000, so total gross bond value is $5m, LTV 58%, so your cash portion is around $2m...
well done
HSBC , std chart & credit sui offer this universal life plan. So it is safe.
rdgs,
Vic
dbs, ubs, hsbc also offer lehman bond in the past...all kaput
Those who bought universal life related product few years ago in US$ would have their values devalue with the drop in US$ -SGD exchange rate. What if one day 1US$ = 1SGD? :beats-me-man:
I dont buy the universal life plan. I said that the Smart & rich clients are borrowing in USD & invest in USD global bond fund giving 5% dividend. The dividend payout will be used to pay their yearly premium. USD $ down would effect them alot as their money are borrowed in USD.
rdgs,
Vic
haha, after I said, Focus is better, then u show your true colour....with etc etc...
your coupon is in the range of 5%, net give u 3.7%, income say $200,000, so total gross bond value is $5m, LTV 58%, so your cash portion is around $2m...
well done
I used less than 1.6m cash.I borrowed >1.6M. My coupon is in the range of 7%. If I use the cash 1.6m to buy property, how to get 180k to 200k/yr return. I need to make full used of low interest for the next 2-3 yrs (2010 to 2014) to make as much as possible. Will monitor very closely the sign of raising rate. Will probably sell some in 2014.
I told many of my friends in early 2011 that there are money to be make in bond due to the QE. When I told them they need to leverage it to get a better return. They dare not. Seem to risky to borrow.
Me too, but not very effective.
Hi Laguna, I also wanna know, please?
haha Laguna so where is ur massage parlor? urgently need a good 1!
I used less than 1.6m cash.I borrowed >1.6M. My coupon is in the range of 7%. If I use the cash 1.6m to buy property, how to get 180k to 200k/yr return. I need to make full used of low interest for the next 2-3 yrs (2010 to 2014) to make as much as possible. Will monitor very closely the sign of raising rate. Will probably sell some in 2014.
I told many of my friends in early 2011 that there are money to be make in bond due to the QE. When I told them they need to leverage it to get a better return. They dare not. Seem to risky to borrow.
when u have bond, ur looking for fixed income or yield and perhaps some capital appreciation. U buy straight bond, so the capital appreciation is not that substantial.
When in property, ur talking not about rental/yield, but on capital appreciation especially on a cash on cash return. Of course, now with lower LTV, the cash on cash return is getting lesser.
I got a friend, bot in early 2011, now the capital appreciation is 60%, u cannot get this sort of capital return in bonds.
haha Laguna so where is ur massage parlor? urgently need a good 1!
here it goes
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=15395&page=5
post 49
If u want a good relaxing one, I have another one to suggest, at Roxy Square
when u have bond, ur looking for fixed income or yield and perhaps some capital appreciation. U buy straight bond, so the capital appreciation is not that substantial.
When in property, ur talking not about rental/yield, but on capital appreciation especially on a cash on cash return. Of course, now with lower LTV, the cash on cash return is getting lesser.
I got a friend, bot in early 2011, now the capital appreciation is 60%, u cannot get this sort of capital return in bonds.
After reading through the posts, i was gonna ask for a direct comparison between bonds and properties since we're still in a Condo Forum.
another point to add to yours,
Preference shares / bonds can collapse and become 0 in value.
It is very rare that a property can become $0 as long as you have the holding power. Unless a bomb drops?
I used less than 1.6m cash.I borrowed >1.6M. My coupon is in the range of 7%. If I use the cash 1.6m to buy property, how to get 180k to 200k/yr return. I need to make full used of low interest for the next 2-3 yrs (2010 to 2014) to make as much as possible. Will monitor very closely the sign of raising rate. Will probably sell some in 2014. .
$200,000 net on a cash capital of $1.6m, ie 12.5% net. A fair return for using leverage but definitely not the top nod.
$200,000 net on a cash capital of $1.6m, ie 12.5% net. A fair return for using leverage but definitely not the top nod.
The findings I uncovered in my participation in this forum is :
1. Many do not know their objective, so don't know what to invest.
2. Many do not set objectives because they did not go into 1 as above.
3. Many expect whatever said in the forum to be true and don't do their own due diligence.
4. Many want to be spoon fed.
5. Many do contradict but don't provide evidence.
6. Many just tell u, wheni ask for proof, they tell u, go find yourself. If we can find ourselves, we would not be contradicting u in the first place. It could be a case, we don't know where to find.
What I also found is,
There are many genuine people here who really want to help and for that, I am appreciative.
So Bottomline, I do enjoy this forum.;)
The findings I uncovered in my participation in this forum is :
1. Many do not know their objective, so don't know what to invest.
2. Many do not set objectives because they did not go into 1 as above.
3. Many expect whatever said in the forum to be true and don't do their own due diligence.
4. Many want to be spoon fed.
5. Many do contradict but don't provide evidence.
6. Many just tell u, wheni ask for proof, they tell u, go find yourself. If we can find ourselves, we would not be contradicting u in the first place. It could be a case, we don't know where to find.
What I also found is,
There are many genuine people here who really want to help and for that, I am appreciative.
So Bottomline, I do enjoy this forum.;)
一种米养百种人
just enjoy lor! I do as well...
now eye big big looking at GS
BTW, I also dunno how much I said is true and how much is false as well...:doh:
this thread getting more lively, with numbers sloshing around.
chestnut, noted your point on universal life.
just to add to your list, there's another group of people in this forum, those too serious, cannot differentiate sacarsm from honest opinion.
when u have bond, ur looking for fixed income or yield and perhaps some capital appreciation. U buy straight bond, so the capital appreciation is not that substantial.
When in property, ur talking not about rental/yield, but on capital appreciation especially on a cash on cash return. Of course, now with lower LTV, the cash on cash return is getting lesser.
I got a friend, bot in early 2011, now the capital appreciation is 60%, u cannot get this sort of capital return in bonds.
Property is good hedge against inflation. But with so many CMs being introduced by our government. The potential 60% return will be rare in future. Maybe U need to hold > 10 yrs. That is why I said bond is another alternative to property investment due to the latest CM.
I myself benefited from my property investment b4. So I still believe in investing property at GOOD LOCATION for long term. But the latest CM make it dificult for potential investors to buy now. There will more CM if Fed decide to have QE4...QE5 on & on.
My focus is in bond for 2011 to 2014. May stretch due 2015 if rate is still reasonable low. 2016 to 2017 focus maybe in property.
If U have holding power for your property. U will probably beat inflation.I still believe in property investment.
rdgs,
Vic
buttercarp
25-10-12, 01:43
Yes, this thread is very lively.
Things brought up here are for consideration.
I don't think people will follow advice blindly.
If someone brings up something which interests you, I am sure you will do your own research.
I enjoy hearing opinion from different sides.
@Vic...... Thanks for sharing with us your way of investing. You have painstakingly simplified what would otherwise seem complicated for me.
@chestnut........thanks for giving advice from the other point of view n thanks for earnestly pointing out the pit falls.
1:46am Thursday (SGT) - Time in Singapore
Wow still awake.
buttercarp
25-10-12, 01:53
1:46am Thursday (SGT) - Time in Singapore
Wow still awake.
Yup..... :D .
Bro, your time is in the evening, right?
Had dinner?
Yup..... :D .
Bro, your time is in the evening, right?
Had dinner?
stay up to watch FOMC meeting??
Secretariat
25-10-12, 05:22
You are doing all these just for the $25,000?
With borrowed money, and unhedged I suppose.
There are obviously some traders in this forum.
The $800,000 equity of the property is just vapor, a mark-to-market figure purely for the purpose of facilitating a loan.
If the improbable Black Swam event is taking place as you are reading this post, the $800,000 can well become $600,000.
Since it is borrowed against, then you are down $200,000 in the equity loan.
The position that generates $25,000, in this event, can well become $550,000; so you are down $200,000 here.
Total $400,000. But don't worry, this is just an example fortunately.
In the thread The Swap, a couple of posters asked "why bother with a swap, why not equity loan...". I left them unanswered. The answer is in the above example.
A property equity is just that, a vapor. Borrowing against a vapor is not in my dictionary. If you are ultra bullish in the direction of property price, and want to take more risk, then please realize, cash, the property equity first.
The vapor will just disappear when the sun comes out.
@Vic...... Thanks for sharing with us your way of investing. You have painstakingly simplified what would otherwise seem complicated for me.
@chestnut........thanks for giving advice from the other point of view n thanks for earnestly pointing out the pit falls.
so SAd that u did not thank me despiite I put up such a long write up on bonds.
Great discussion folks. I learnt a lot. I can share on mortgage only. Spread is surely going up slowly
buttercarp
25-10-12, 09:33
so SAd that u did not thank me despiite I put up such a long write up on bonds.
@Laguna.......
Was saving the best for you, especially you are the thread starter!
It was late last night and I was using my phone to surf the web so could not post this flowers.
So this is for you and a big THANK YOU :) !
http://img-s3-01.mytextgraphics.com/sparklee/2012/10/25/1b3f687bcb707c2c8d8369ecdf49eac2.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4xkjvgjtIYw/UAytEPb9DFI/AAAAAAAAAX0/-1b8d-sQjms/s200/red+rosses+image+fb+chat+emoticon.jpg
@Laguna.......
Was saving the best for you, especially you are the thread starter!
It was late last night and I was using my phone to surf the web so could not post this flowers.
So this is for you and a big THANK YOU :) !
http://img-s3-01.mytextgraphics.com/sparklee/2012/10/25/1b3f687bcb707c2c8d8369ecdf49eac2.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4xkjvgjtIYw/UAytEPb9DFI/AAAAAAAAAX0/-1b8d-sQjms/s200/red+rosses+image+fb+chat+emoticon.jpg
My lovely Butter....
Look like I have to share some more my knowledge in Bond very soon.
Will write something...let me think think
Great discussion folks. I learnt a lot. I can share on mortgage only. Spread is surely going up slowly
Actually, you can share a lot more .. you working in mortgage industry... You will sure encountered the richies and how they fund their properties and how they got rich.. Must be interesting to hear all these stories.
So spread is going up this year or next?
The result of banks seeking more deposits to boost their basel iii requiremetns?
In fact, some banks have alr lowered the LTV for bond etc...
phantom_opera
25-10-12, 21:33
since I am lazy to find out ... can anybody answer me whether Genting perpetual bond interest is accumulative i.e. if they decide not to pay this year, next year they must pay back the payment they missed this year??
bank pref share is normally NC .. right?
since I am lazy to find out ... can anybody answer me whether Genting perpetual bond interest is accumulative i.e. if they decide not to pay this year, next year they must pay back the payment they missed this year??
bank pref share is normally NC .. right?
just google lor!
cumulative
http://www.btinvest.com.sg/markets/bonds/genting-may-be-a-sure-bet-but-know-risks-of-perpetual-bonds/
phantom_opera
25-10-12, 21:55
never say what kind of interest is payable if missed payment though .. ok lah ... i lazy to read the IPO booklet :ashamed1:
Still, the distributions are cumulative, which means investors are entitled to any missed distributions, plus interest on those payments, during a future payout.
phantom_opera
25-10-12, 22:00
and I Find this really funny:
Prices of longer-tenure bonds are more sensitive to interest rates than bonds with shorter tenures. Since perpetual bonds can have almost an unlimited tenure if the issuer chooses not to redeem them, they can be considered to be at the highest risk.
=> consider our CPF OA is 2.5% and CPF SA is 4% (but going to be 10y SGS +1% which is even lower than 2.5% now :banghead: )
Since CPF can have almost an unlimited tenure, if the garmen chooses not to redeem them, they can be considered to be at the highest risk :D
never say what kind of interest is payable if missed payment though .. ok lah ... i lazy to read the IPO booklet :ashamed1:
Still, the distributions are cumulative, which means investors are entitled to any missed distributions, plus interest on those payments, during a future payout.
not so bad lah! at least they pay dividend....
Bond coming ?
Shipping and logistics group Neptune Orient Lines Ltd said it is launching an issue of Singapore dollar-denominated notes under its US$1.5 billion Euro Medium Term Note (EMTN) programme on Monday.
In a stock filing to the Singapore Exchange, the company said: "Proceeds from the proposed transaction will be used for general corporate funding purposes and investments."
DBS Bank Ltd will act as global coordinator of the issue. The joint lead managers are DBS, HSBC, OCBC and Standard Chartered Bank.
Bond coming ?
Shipping and logistics group Neptune Orient Lines Ltd said it is launching an issue of Singapore dollar-denominated notes under its US$1.5 billion Euro Medium Term Note (EMTN) programme on Monday.
In a stock filing to the Singapore Exchange, the company said: "Proceeds from the proposed transaction will be used for general corporate funding purposes and investments."
DBS Bank Ltd will act as global coordinator of the issue. The joint lead managers are DBS, HSBC, OCBC and Standard Chartered Bank.
ISSUER: Neptune Orient Lines Limited
RATING: Unrated
STATUS: Senior, Unsecured
FORMAT: RegS, Bearer
ISSUE SIZE: SGD Benchmark
TENOR: 7 Years
PRICE: 100.00
INITIAL GUIDANCE: 4.5% area
OPTIONAL REDEMPTION: Redeemable at the Issuer's option in whole or in part:
Year 2017 at [100 + (Coupon Rate/2)]%
Year 2018 at [100 + (Coupon Rate/4)]%
COC STEP-UP 150bps step up if COC ( Change of Control ) occurs and the Notes are not redeemed
within 60 days of occurrence of such COC ( if Temasek stake < 50% ) (current Temasek stake at 67%)
DETAILS: SGD 250,000 / EMTN Programme / SGX /Singapore Law
CLEARING: Primary - CDP, Secondary - Euroclear/Clearstream
GLOBAL CO-ORDINATOR: DBS
JOINT BOOKRUNNERS: DBS, HSBC, OCBC & SCB
TIMING: As early as today
buttercarp
30-10-12, 08:26
Sorry can I ask a dumb question (cos I have no knowledge about bonds)?
- Is NOL considered SGS?
2nd dumb question:
- Since NOL sold building to Fragrance, is that a sign of something?
Do we need to take into consideration of the above?
Their rating I note is "unrated".
3rd dumber question :
What is the minimum lot that can be purchased?
Is it must buy at least $250k ?
4th dumbest question :
Where can we buy bonds in the resale market?
Must we buy through a broker?
Or can we just buy online?
TIA!!!!
Qn 1) what is SGS?
Qn 2) Real Estate is typically non core to such companies, if they want to enhance their return on assets, they could sell non core assets. If there is something more sinister, you have to be an insider to know, which I don't.
Qn 3) min denomination of $250k
Qn 4) buy through banker since this is OTC if I remember correctly.
phantom_opera
30-10-12, 08:59
SGS is Singapore government securities i.e. Singapore government bonds
NOL is not SGS
And please take note it is in EURO, not in SGD so there is foreign currency risk
Normally it will be listed in SGX for trading after successful IPO
If you know the state of shipping industry ... 7y bond at 4+% is really :banghead:
Junk bond selling as AAA ??
Secretariat
30-10-12, 09:11
If you know the state of shipping industry ... 7y bond at 4+% is really :banghead:
Junk bond selling as AAA ??
Nice one.
Any sign of life at Baltic Dry?
so nobody taking the bond ?
Capmall was 3.8% 2022. NOL 4% slightly better...but need to know if it is a perp bond?
if perp bond then forget it.
phantom_opera
30-10-12, 09:38
so nobody taking the bond ?
Capmall was 3.8% 2022. NOL 4% slightly better...but need to know if it is a perp bond?
if perp bond then forget it.
i am willing to take perpetual bond if you guarantee return of 7% pa without failure until I die :rolleyes:
buttercarp
30-10-12, 09:52
Thanks all for the answers!
I will continue to do my research on bonds.
i am willing to take perpetual bond if you guarantee return of 7% pa without failure until I die :rolleyes:
Bro ghost, got such bond available?
If have, I also want :) !
Secretariat
30-10-12, 09:56
When you go to a bank, say to buy a property, you know your risk better than the banker. The banker works simply on a model, the risk level of such and such borrower, his income, age, other liability etc.
When you buy a bond, you are the banker, so think like a banker and make sure you understand the risk of the borrower.
The bond's interest rate is a reflection of the risk of the borrower (bond issuer), because the market thinks that it is riskier to lend money to NOL than CapMall, and demands a higher interest rate.
But the market can be wrong, as it did during subprime crisis. The rating agency can be wrong as well, so the comment from Phantom, junk bond being marketed as AAA.
Will you lend to a sinking company?
phantom_opera
30-10-12, 09:59
Thanks all for the answers!
I will continue to do my research on bonds.
Bro ghost, got such bond available?
If have, I also want :) !
Got, Genting perpetual ...but 5.125% only and redeemable after 10y by issuer ... if not redeemed then increase to 6.125% (which is pretty close to 7% no guarantee of payment) :banghead:
Secretariat
30-10-12, 10:01
Got, Genting perpetual ...but 5.125% only and redeemable after 10y by issuer ... if not redeemed then increase to 6.125% (which is pretty close to 7% no guarantee of payment) :banghead:
Perpetual also means that perpetually not being redeemed leh.
phantom_opera
30-10-12, 10:06
Perpetual also means that perpetually not being redeemed leh.
Not sure, I guess perpetual to bond holders only, issuer can always return your money right ;) Imagine Genting tomorrow say it is folding and want to return your principal ... would u say no? :rolleyes:
It all depends on the inflation outlook and growth prospects of Singapore ... if you expect in next 15-20y
1. High inflation high growth - suicide to buy Genting
2. High inflation low growth - still can buy some
3. Low inflation low growth - ok lah
4. Zero inflation zero growth - mai tu liao
buttercarp
30-10-12, 10:06
Got, Genting perpetual ...but 5.125% only and redeemable after 10y by issuer ... if not redeemed then increase to 6.125% (which is pretty close to 7% no guarantee of payment) :banghead:
Hi bro, what do you mean by "no guarantee of payment"?
TIA.
phantom_opera
30-10-12, 10:08
Hi bro, what do you mean by "no guarantee of payment"?
TIA.
I must admit that I have not looked at the IPO prospectus ... from what I understand, if they don't pay dividend for shareholders they can also have the option to not paying the bond holders any interest .. however interest is cumulative i.e. they must pay later (but how long later is the key risk here)
As long as they say dun pay ... market price will crash like 15-20% ...your money is stuck perpetually :banghead:
CPF is different, though also kind of perpetual, they must pay ...the pathetic 2.5% for OA or 10ySGS +1% for SA
so I guess you can use your SRS money to buy some perpetual bond if you expect inflation to stay low with low growth in next 15y
You can checkin anytime you want, but you can never leave - Hotel California
For bonds, if you don't read the prospectus or if you read the prospectus and don't understand the contents, DON'T BUY as you don't know what you're getting into.
FYI even the bankers selling you the bonds sometimes have not understood the prospectus fully and can may not advise you properly on the terms and conditions.
If you lend people money, you will make sure that you are clear on the terms and conditions, right?
We are not talking about small money here, min investment of SGD250K is a lot of money to most people (maybe not to forum members here, but it is not to be taken lightly).
Don't look at the yield and be dazzled by it.....there is a lot of fine print to be considered.
Not sure, I guess perpetual to bond holders only, issuer can always return your money right ;) Imagine Genting tomorrow say it is folding and want to return your principal ... would u say no? :rolleyes:
It all depends on the inflation outlook and growth prospects of Singapore ... if you expect in next 15-20y
1. High inflation high growth - suicide to buy Genting
2. High inflation low growth - still can buy some
3. Low inflation low growth - ok lah
4. Zero inflation zero growth - mai tu liao
hi phantom,
perp bond is not capital protected...
Very good explanation.
Actually, property applies as well. Just that for Singapore, the govt dictates that the monies going to the progress payment is held under a certain body (cannot recall where). So in the event the developer goes bust, another contractor can be called in to complete the project and use the funds held by the body. So when buying properties in Singapore, it is safe.
If anyone has another view, by all means share. I have spoken with my lawyer on this subject matter and was advised by him of this case. This ruling was put in place by the govt after an incident whereby 1 developer went bust.
So in your pursuit of any investment, dont just simply trust say the property agent, the banker, the insurer, etc... There are certain clause they dont tell you. You need to do your due diligence.
Say for example : Insurance max payout in event of insurance coy go kaput is 50K (please correct me if I am wrong). So it is wise to spread the eggs out.
For banks, Only during Lehman Bro time, fixed deposit was full coverage in the event of bank failure (because HK implemented it and there was a fear of capital flight). Now deposits get something like 50K (again, I cannot remember the amount-so someone correct me if I am wrong). So it is better to spread out your deposits across numerous banks. Unless of course you have 100Million, then it is tough, hahaha. But if I had that kind of money, I will still spread.
When you go to a bank, say to buy a property, you know your risk better than the banker. The banker works simply on a model, the risk level of such and such borrower, his income, age, other liability etc.
When you buy a bond, you are the banker, so think like a banker and make sure you understand the risk of the borrower.
The bond's interest rate is a reflection of the risk of the borrower (bond issuer), because the market thinks that it is riskier to lend money to NOL than CapMall, and demands a higher interest rate.
But the market can be wrong, as it did during subprime crisis. The rating agency can be wrong as well, so the comment from Phantom, junk bond being marketed as AAA.
Will you lend to a sinking company?
phantom_opera
30-10-12, 10:31
hi phantom,
perp bond is not capital protected...
sure ... even your FD in the bank is not capital protected beyond certain amount :D
and bond holders normally are better off than share holders ;)
Secretariat
30-10-12, 10:42
Everytime a company organizes a Cash Call, by rights issue, bond issue, monetization of its asset such as building etc etc, better sit up and find out what it is up to.
Nice one.
Any sign of life at Baltic Dry?
http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.asp
Nowadays, cannot use BDI to correlate to stocks? Bloody confusing. But BDI do show signs of upwards from Sept onwards after QE.
in HK, Oz and many other countries, their gov has come out with inflation linked bond. Singapore was questioned why it has not come out with this bond.
Lawrence Wong is looking into this. Better hold ur horse and wait for this thing...other tools seems to be risky..
Secretariat, this 1 clearer.
http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm
Secretariat
30-10-12, 12:54
Secretariat, this 1 clearer.
http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm
Traders had a good laugh when it bounced off 666.
phantom_opera
30-10-12, 14:01
Which bond? James Bond :D
Which bond? James Bond :D
No no no. Not this one.
It's the other bond whereby you need to exchange rings and give half of your wealth when split. :D
phantom_opera
30-10-12, 14:15
No no no. Not this one.
It's the other bond whereby you need to exchange rings and give half of your wealth when split. :D
or Japs Bond
TOKYO - The Bank of Japan on Tuesday launched US$138 billion in further monetary easing as it looks to boost the country's slowing economy, following similar moves by US and European central bankers.
The BoJ said it would expand an asset-purchase programme - its main policy tool - by 11 trillion yen (US$138 billion) to 91 trillion yen, while keeping rates unchanged at zero to 0.1 per cent. - AFP
NOL Bond
I will not pick up this Bond for the following reasons:
1. the issuer has not been doing well over the last few years. And I think it will not be doing that well in the coming few years, with the increased in crude and slow down in business world wide.
2. the issue sold their building and from now on have to pay rent. So, they either pay higher rent next time or move. The cost of moving is also very high.
3. the yield is not that great.
4. currency risk
I have a friend, a firm believer of NOL, collected so many NOL shares from $4+ to $3+ and still holding till today.
Secretariat
30-10-12, 14:37
or Japs Bond
TOKYO - The Bank of Japan on Tuesday launched US$138 billion in further monetary easing as it looks to boost the country's slowing economy, following similar moves by US and European central bankers.
The BoJ said it would expand an asset-purchase programme - its main policy tool - by 11 trillion yen (US$138 billion) to 91 trillion yen, while keeping rates unchanged at zero to 0.1 per cent. - AFP
If you a fan of QE (I know that Phantom is one), but you may still lost count.
This is QE9 for Japan, and at the same time the country earns the distinction of having the highest percentage of sovereign debts over GDP.
Banzai.
If you a fan of QE (I know that Phantom is one), but you may still lost count.
This is QE9 for Japan, and at the same time the country earns the distinction of having the highest percentage of sovereign debts over GDP.
Banzai.
ya, with non-stop QE, the interest rate will stay forever low....
Secretariat
30-10-12, 14:50
Traders had a good laugh when it bounced off 666.
When Barack Obama was campaigning for the US Presidency, there was a conspiracy (< note this) theory circulating that he was Antichrist.
So during the financial meltdown, the Standard&Poor Index plunged but bounced off 666, and set off the chorus "OMG, this is unbelievable...". And recently when BDI also bounced off 666, traders were "Hey, what is going on here?".
Another side of the conspiracy (< note this) was questioning the fact how can the Anichrist be a Black? But they probably are not aware that some historians have been questioning why Christ is a White, while all the paintings left behind by ancient Egyptians only shown Blacks.
phantom_opera
30-10-12, 14:50
SINGAPORE, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Singapore is likely to see another year of lacklustre economic growth and elevated inflation in 2013 as exports remain weak and rising rents and car prices continue to push up the cost of living, its central bank said on Tuesday.
But the job market will remain tight and "resident wage growth could rise from 2-3 percent in 2012 to above 3 percent in 2013 even if overall economic growth remains sluggish," the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said in its half-yearly macroeconomic review.
Very good explanation.
Actually, property applies as well. Just that for Singapore, the govt dictates that the monies going to the progress payment is held under a certain body (cannot recall where). So in the event the developer goes bust, another contractor can be called in to complete the project and use the funds held by the body. So when buying properties in Singapore, it is safe.
If anyone has another view, by all means share. I have spoken with my lawyer on this subject matter and was advised by him of this case. This ruling was put in place by the govt after an incident whereby 1 developer went bust.
So in your pursuit of any investment, dont just simply trust say the property agent, the banker, the insurer, etc... There are certain clause they dont tell you. You need to do your due diligence.
Say for example : Insurance max payout in event of insurance coy go kaput is 50K (please correct me if I am wrong). So it is wise to spread the eggs out.
For banks, Only during Lehman Bro time, fixed deposit was full coverage in the event of bank failure (because HK implemented it and there was a fear of capital flight). Now deposits get something like 50K (again, I cannot remember the amount-so someone correct me if I am wrong). So it is better to spread out your deposits across numerous banks. Unless of course you have 100Million, then it is tough, hahaha. But if I had that kind of money, I will still spread.
Think u are right about the 50K coverage. Its in the fine print.
NOL Bond
I will not pick up this Bond for the following reasons:
1. the issuer has not been doing well over the last few years. And I think it will not be doing that well in the coming few years, with the increased in crude and slow down in business world wide.
2. the issue sold their building and from now on have to pay rent. So, they either pay higher rent next time or move. The cost of moving is also very high.
3. the yield is not that great.
4. currency risk
I have a friend, a firm believer of NOL, collected so many NOL shares from $4+ to $3+ and still holding till today.
Would buying capitalmall bond at 3.8% from the open market be a safer bet compared to NOL then?
phantom_opera
30-10-12, 15:06
Would buying capitalmall bond at 3.8% from the open market be a safer bet compared to NOL then?
CMA bond is callable at 5th year onwards ... if not redeemed coupon rate is 4.5%
Secretariat
30-10-12, 15:11
ya, with non-stop QE, the interest rate will stay forever low....
No issue with low interest rate, the lower the better.
More concern with policy risk, the what CMs are being planned. CMs just hinder the normal functioning of a free market.
Google "Florida Land Bubble of 1920s", the intervention of Federal Reserve, which historians now said was the prelude to 1929 Crash. Also Ben Bernanke's thoughts on it.
No issue with low interest rate, the lower the better.
More concern with policy risk, the what CMs are being planned. CMs just hinder the normal functioning of a free market.
Google "Florida Land Bubble of 1920s", the intervention of Federal Reserve, which historians now said was the prelude to 1929 Crash. Also Ben Bernanke's thoughts on it.
I tot 1929 was the selling of stocks whereby now they install circuit breaker. Bro, you hamtam or real one. I read 1929 until like crazy right after Lehman leh. Is it a conspiracy theory or real one ???? Hahahaha
Secretariat
30-10-12, 15:22
I tot 1929 was the selling of stocks whereby now they install circuit breaker. Bro, you hamtam or real one. I read 1929 until like crazy right after Lehman leh. Is it a conspiracy theory or real one ???? Hahahaha
Real history.
I always qualify the conspiracy one.
Real history.
I always qualify the conspiracy one. Oh, my theory was stocks crashed and everyone wanted out. Then came people queuing at banks which cause banks to run out of money which caused another scare and it became spiral effect.
Point me to your theory. I need to read leh.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression
Secretariat
30-10-12, 17:58
Oh, my theory was stocks crashed and everyone wanted out. Then came people queuing at banks which cause banks to run out of money which caused another scare and it became spiral effect.
Point me to your theory. I need to read leh.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression
Yes, but these were the results. But what caused the stocks to crash?
My point to Laguna is, at this stage, the risk is with policy maker (MAS) coming out with ridiculous CMs.
I read Bernanke's speech many years ago, on the Federal Reserves actions that contributed to, first the pop in the Florida Land Bubble, and second, Wall Street crash. Both were caused by a series of tightenings which aimed specifically bring down the bubble and stock rally.
The 1987 crash was also caused by Greenspan specific action in raising the interest rate, the famous "irrational exuberance" comments.
Of course, Bernanke didn't talk about 1987, Greenspan is still alive, but I can remember when he said in this speech.."lest anyone of you still doubt the capability of Federal Reserves in bring down a market." Something like that.
(I will post the link of Bernanke's speech when I find it. Otherwise, you can search here http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/2008speech.htm)
Secretariat
30-10-12, 18:27
And if you really, really, want to get close to the 1929 crash, then you have to read about Jesse Livermore.
Secretariat
31-10-12, 09:29
Chestnut,
Here is what Bernanke said:
"The market crash of October 1929 showed, if anyone doubted it, that a concerted effort by the Fed can bring down stock prices."
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/200403022/default.htm
Chestnut,
Here is what Bernanke said:
"The market crash of October 1929 showed, if anyone doubted it, that a concerted effort by the Fed can bring down stock prices."
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/200403022/default.htm
Thanks. Will read it.
OK. Read the lead up to the crash. Agreeable with you on that. But the stocks were already in pure speculative mode and the bubble was humongous. If the implementation was done prior to the bubble being that big, the great crash would not have happened.
I will post how much speculation was involved in a while. Stay tune.
Secretariat,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929
The key note is
"By August 1929, brokers were routinely lending small investors more than two-thirds of the face value of the stocks they were buying. Over $8.5 billion was out on loan,[17] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929#cite_note-16) more than the entire amount of currency circulating in the U.S. at the time."
So the key point is when interest rate increase, what will happen??? Bottomline, the bubble was too huge.:doh:
Secretariat,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929
The key note is
"By August 1929, brokers were routinely lending small investors more than two-thirds of the face value of the stocks they were buying. Over $8.5 billion was out on loan,[17] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929#cite_note-16) more than the entire amount of currency circulating in the U.S. at the time."
So the key point is when interest rate increase, what will happen??? Bottomline, the bubble was too huge.:doh:
so, does not mean that if interest rate is near zero, the bubble will grow even bigger...
so, does not mean that if interest rate is near zero, the bubble will grow even bigger...
Are u joking with me or pulling my leg... You so sophisticated leh...
Ok, I think you teasing me... but I give my explanation for fun.
Take stocks for example. Qualification : we take 100% of those who will play the market. Not 100% of the population.OK.
So if market going up and only 30% in market, the market will continue to go up (assume economy well, people spending etc...), another 20% looking at the uptrend, will buy, then another 20% and it continues..... If all 100% bought, that's it.... right? But if everyone thinks hey, this one surely make money and interest rate is so low, must as well leverage. So the leverage at low interest rate causes the price to go up to way above its value. It will break one day. So interest rate go up and govt stop this leverage, stocks cannot go up and stay flat, you are now losing money (say interest rate shoot to 3%). So now when u hold the stocks, you lose 3% every year. So people start selling and it causes a crash.
So, with interest rate low, the govt is afraid of run away prices of property prices.
If say property today at 1mil and shoot to 2 mil and salary cannot catch up and so many people bot that no more can buy, then how. Supply outstrips demand, prices will drop.
I really do not see prices to be beyond its real value because you need to take in inflation. So if you ask me, is the govt correct to implement CM. My view is yes, if not prices will over run. So it is for a better cause. At the same time, people who invest in properties and make money will become lazy with passive income and will cause productivity to drop.
But if you are a smart trader, you will be frustrated. You hope prices will rise and quickly get out. The issue is, many think they are smart traders but greed will overcome them.
As I type, I keep drifting. Sorri, very difficult to share because typing is not my forte. I am only good in talking. Hahahahaha
The key is to understand the human behaviour and market dynamics to stay on top. There are just too many variables here to list to watch out for. Interest is just 1.
It is like driving, you need to do multiple things just to drive. How to describe???
I give u some variables to think about
- fear of inflation
- low interest rates
- Job stability
- fear of losing out on the bull run
- aspiration
- Supply/Demand
- GLS
- etc....
And the list goes on. You just need to put all of it together to get a holistic view.
:cheers4:
bro/sis, did I drift? Your views please. Must share leh. I quite goondoo you know.
Are u joking with me or pulling my leg... You so sophisticated leh...
Ok, I think you teasing me... but I give my explanation for fun.
I was just back from a good facial...(men go facial is normal nowadays) and about to get into the pool, so in between just posted a short question without thinking much.
Anyway, will give some time to think...I am now in holiday mood alr....
I used less than 1.6m cash.I borrowed >1.6M. My coupon is in the range of 7%. If I use the cash 1.6m to buy property, how to get 180k to 200k/yr return. I need to make full used of low interest for the next 2-3 yrs (2010 to 2014) to make as much as possible. Will monitor very closely the sign of raising rate. Will probably sell some in 2014.
I told many of my friends in early 2011 that there are money to be make in bond due to the QE. When I told them they need to leverage it to get a better return. They dare not. Seem to risky to borrow.
wah i miss this thread as was away travelling for nearly a month.
you got time to drink beer... all on me... you can teach me as I am plannng to take up equity loan and do some 'bonding' like you... no joke.. pls pm me when you got time... when it comes to all these, i still blur blur :D
wah i miss this thread as was away travelling for nearly a month.
you got time to drink beer... all on me... you can teach me as I am plannng to take up equity loan and do some 'bonding' like you... no joke.. pls pm me when you got time... when it comes to all these, i still blur blur :D
pl include me as well.....
pl include me as well.....
swee... i buy beer..
swee... i buy beer..
I buy nuts
I buy nuts
can i join in? i crack and peel nuts :D:cheers6:
can i join in? i crack and peel nuts :D:cheers6:
Walau... can i join in as well!
You all can throw on the floor .. i sweep the floor and clear up after you guys!
PM ME!!
ya, just came back from Skyfall...
I think, we shall start a SIG in bond
ya, just came back from Skyfall...
I think, we shall start a SIG in bond
i was reading some old posts, read that u were organising a CondoSG BBQ. anymore of such coming up? :D:cheers6:
i was reading some old posts, read that u were organising a CondoSG BBQ. anymore of such coming up? :D:cheers6:
I just put in a bottle of white wine in the fridge for u.
No one responded to my BBQ.
I just put in a bottle of white wine in the fridge for u.
No one responded to my BBQ.
can have a potluck gathering instead lol
can have a potluck gathering instead lol
potluck : no problem
Signature dish here from Laguna is Popiah....
I just put in a bottle of white wine in the fridge for u.
No one responded to my BBQ.
thanks a lot! let's organise another one!
thanks a lot! let's organise another one!
gd idea haha :)
East Lover
03-11-12, 13:43
potluck : no problem
Signature dish here from Laguna is Popiah....
Do u want to invite ah tan??? :D
wah i miss this thread as was away travelling for nearly a month.
you got time to drink beer... all on me... you can teach me as I am plannng to take up equity loan and do some 'bonding' like you... no joke.. pls pm me when you got time... when it comes to all these, i still blur blur :D
I started to invest in Bond only 2010. So I am not a expert in bond.
I aggressively buy bond due to the QE2 , QE3....Likewise many investors buy property due to the QE.
An equity loan is a mortgage loan in which the borrower receives cash. The loan is secured by real estate already owned outright.
Assume your property bought in 2005 @ $1m is now worth $1.7m
Mortgage loan interest rate fixed 3 yrs @ 1.5%. The bank may allow a drawdown of a 500k @ 1.5% interest rate base on your current property value. If U dont use the 500k, no interest is being paid to the bank. Only when U starting using it.
U can use the 500k to buy stock , unit trust, bond etc etc. If U mismanage your 500k investment by buying speculative stock , high risk unit trust , FX etc . U will be in deep trouble if mkt turn against U .U need to top up cash if there is a MARGIN CALL. The very Worst case is that U need to sell away your property. Your relationship manager will explain to U.
I suggest U buy short dated (2015/16) STRAIGHT , quality & liquid bond (size >$300M). All depend on your risk level. I suggest buy IPO bond or wait till next year when there is a big correction in the stock mkt. The bond price may drop 1-3%. Get your ONLY EXPERIENCE relationship mgr to advise U. U can refer to THE EDGE Magazine for the list of ONLY SG dollar corporate bond pricing.
My bond holding.
ABN , OLAM , Noble , Banyan Tree , OUE , Lippomall . Shui ON , PETRA Food , Cheung Kong , Hutchison , Citi pacific etc etc.
I do have CapitaLand & Capital commerical trust yielding 3% to 3.9%.. But hv sold off last yr to seek higher yield.
Rdgs,
Vic
Thanks Vic. I will do some reading.
Do u want to invite ah tan??? :D
Ah tan has already calculated the transport cost of bringing 9 to my place is far exceeding the cost of food I am providing even for him to come empty handed.
I suggest U buy short dated (2015/16) STRAIGHT , quality & liquid bond (size >$300M). All depend on your risk level. I suggest buy IPO bond or wait till next year when there is a big correction in the stock mkt. The bond price may drop 1-3%. Get your ONLY EXPERIENCE relationship mgr to advise U. U can refer to THE EDGE Magazine for the list of ONLY SG dollar corporate bond pricing.
If u are looking for liquid, then $300m is still considered as a small issue.
For short dated straight bond, unless u got it during IPO, then at par. If not, u always have to pay quite a higher premium over OTC.
Question to Vic : why u think there could be a big correction is the stock market and causing bond to drop 1-3%? are u reading a up in the interest rate?
If u are looking for liquid, then $300m is still considered as a small issue.
For short dated straight bond, unless u got it during IPO, then at par. If not, u always have to pay quite a higher premium over OTC.
Question to Vic : why u think there could be a big correction is the stock market and causing bond to drop 1-3%? are u reading a up in the interest rate?
The US fiscal cliff , European debt crisis & Iran Crisis etc will be in the focus again after US election. So I beieve the mkt will be due for correction, NOT CRASH. If US mkt really CRASH. The Fed will start printing money again. I think interest rate will remain low till 2014 as many government are printing money that including the recent Bank of Japan additional monetary easing measure.
Bond price may drop between 1-3% if base on last yr crisis. I do monitor the bond price movement since last yr. It did drop around 1-3%. Some perp bond may drop (>5%) even more. Pls take note that I am not the expert in bond.
rdgs,
Vic
The US fiscal cliff , European debt crisis & Iran Crisis etc will be in the focus again after US election. So I beieve the mkt will be due for correction, NOT CRASH. If US mkt really CRASH. The Fed will start printing money again. I think interest rate will remain low till 2014 as many government are printing money that including the recent Bank of Japan additional monetary easing measure.
Bond price may drop between 1-3% if base on last yr crisis. I do monitor the bond price movement since last yr. It did drop around 1-3%. Some perp bond may drop (>5%) even more. Pls take note that I am not the expert in bond.
rdgs,
Vic
Thanks Vic for the sharing.
If the price drops 1-3%, it is not that significant.
Regarding fiscal cliff, somehow, I find that it is not going to be that big event, and I believe, they will raise the debt ceiling again as they are given no choice.
For the European crisis, the bond issues in Italy and Spain have been rather stablised these few months.
We have just to keep our fingers cross, and hope for the best.
US President : we will know the result very soon
this is what I wrote on the other thread, copied over here as I just want to have issues concerning bonds be captured in the same thread
Perhaps let me share my :2cents: in interest rate. I am not an economist, just a layman / laywoman's view.
Why interest rate goes up? Some of the main reasons are :
1. tight credit during economy expansion
2. high inflation
3. change in monetary reserve requirement due to over-heating
4. central bank policy.
Next we examine the foreign reserve of Singapore.
http://www.mas.gov.sg/Statistics/Res...-Reserves.aspx (http://www.mas.gov.sg/Statistics/Reserve-Statistics/Official-Foreign-Reserves.aspx)
Without much of breakdown, my :2cents: told me that main currency in our foreign reserve is in US$, those with IMF and gold is for sure. US$ is still the world currency.
Will Singapore Interest rate goes up?
the answer is definitely YES as we are now almost at all time low, cannot be much lower, the only way is sideway or up. But longer term is definitely up. When and How much are the questions to be answered.
When Singapore Interest Rate will go up?
No one know. But MAS in the last two years, is allowing S$ to appreciate and keep interest rate low to fight inflation. Strong S$ hurts our export badly. Even with that in mind, why MAS still prefer stronger S$ than higher interest rate? The only reason I have is, with such low interest rate, S$ is already so strong, if S$ interest rate goes up, our S$ is going to be much stronger and attracting even more hot money which Sg Govt does not want.
On top of that, Sg is earning peanut interest from US$ reserve, so, look at the latest HDB bond, that is the rate Sg Govt willing to pay.
We can afford to have very low bond yield for the Govt Securities as Sg is being graded as AAA.
Next US$ interest rate.
US debt now is running at US$16.3T, some of the US 30 years treasury was issued at 7% years back. The ghost bro sent a link that US Govt is paying US$4b daily on interest. My calculation is around US$2.6B daily. So, does US Govt has the money to pay more interest if rate goes up?
US is now printing themselves out of debt and recession. So does ECB and BOJ.
Stop writing here.
this is the risk of straight bond. This bond when issued, OLAM was a big name.
Olam's unrated US$500 million of 5.75 per cent, five-year notes issued at par in September have tumbled to 85.059 cents on the dollar to yield 9.716 per cent as of 5.02pm in Singapore, according to prices compiled by Bloomberg.
Sept : I think refer to 2012 Sept
Olam bond prices sink to record low
Investors waiting to see how battle with Muddy Waters will pan out
By alvin foo
OLAM International's share price may have rallied in recent days, but the same cannot be said of its bonds.
Some of them hit all-time lows yesterday and on Thursday as investors awaited more clarity on its ongoing battle with research firm Muddy Waters.
Olam's perpetual bond, issued at par with a 7 per cent yield, traded at a record low of 75.439 cents to a dollar on Thursday, according to Bloomberg data. Barely a day earlier, this bond was done at 93.421 cents. Yesterday, it was changing hands at 76.442 cents with a yield of 14.661 per cent.
Bond yields rise as prices fall.
Yields on Olam's five-year bond, issued at par with a 5.75 per cent coupon, climbed to a record of 10.034 per cent yesterday. It was trading at just 83.997 cents to a dollar.
A bond expert who declined to be named said: "The liquidity is still quite low, which means that not many people are willing to sell. Most are waiting on the sidelines to see if there will be more clarity."
But market experts cautioned that Olam's bond prices could head further south next week as the firm's confrontation with the short-seller has escalated.
Yesterday, Muddy Waters stepped up its war of words with Olam with a provocative challenge to the company over its debt levels and a stinging attack on its boss Sunny Verghese.
"Bond investors scrutinise the company's balance sheet more, especially the fine print, while equity investors look more at the profit and loss statement," said APS Asset Management chief investment officer Wong Kok Hoi, whose firm does not own any Olam bonds.
"The selling looks likely to continue next week because of balance sheet concerns. Bond investors are concerned about the company's ability to refinance the short-term loans and bonds, the much higher interest costs the company has to bear," he added.
Olam shares closed at a recent low of $1.50 on Wednesday, but rebounded to $1.575 yesterday. They are down 26 per cent for the year.
Olam, whose debt is not rated by any agency, has US$5.8 billion (S$7 billion) in outstanding debt, of which US$2.89 billion is in bonds, according to Bloomberg.
A fund manager said: "The short-term bonds seem a worthwhile bet currently. The risk of not getting back the principal seems low, given the strong, convicted defence by Olam's board."
Mr Verghese on Thursday said his firm was "willing and ready" to support the bonds if there is "panic". Olam bonds have been generally well subscribed. For instance, its $100 million issue in July last year was subscribed more than 10 times, receiving $1.1 billion in orders and so was upsized to $250 million.
[email protected] (
[email protected])
Copyright © 2012 Singapore Press Holdings. All rights reserved.
[QUOTE=Laguna]Olam bond prices sink to record low
Investors waiting to see how battle with Muddy Waters will pan out
Hey laguna,
Can buy this bond if the price drop by another 10 to 20 cents?
Muddy Waters stepped up its war of words with Olam with a provocative challenge to the company over its debt levels and a stinging attack on its boss Sunny Verghese.
this is worry me.
fierce & furious attack...
what kind of document can sunny produce to counter?
muddy waters already mentioned about aggressive accounting technique by olam .. this sux so much.
:tsk-tsk:
[quote=Laguna]Olam bond prices sink to record low
Investors waiting to see how battle with Muddy Waters will pan out
Hey laguna,
Can buy this bond if the price drop by another 10 to 20 cents?
It is the risk that u have to consider. I know it is now a fire sale case.
I did not follow the case closely. Now is whether OLAM will take up the challenge of getting a credit rating from Moody or S&P. The insiders are buying up the shares, but this will not help.
OLAM so far, cannot give a very positive assurance as such, the bond price, especially the prep, have gone down even more yesterday.
Now, reading the outstanding bonds that OLAM has, the only way to pay off the existing bond is thru new bonds, and I think, the new bonds will have to carry a rate of at least 10%, (ie junk bond rate) and this will add on to the financial burden of the company.
I am not a fan of straight bonds at all. If you ask my opinion, I will not buy this bond, I am only taking calculated risk and this one the risk is at the higher side.
If you are serious in it, don't take the prep bond, and look into the collateral first, consider those only with senior secure bonds.
I will drop u a PM later when I look into their financial statement.
BTW, look like the short sellers are not squaring their position. It seems to me that, these are very big short sellers, and have instrumented this for a few months.
[quote=moneytalk]
It is the risk that u have to consider. I know it is now a fire sale case.
I did not follow the case closely. Now is whether OLAM will take up the challenge of getting a credit rating from Moody or S&P. The insiders are buying up the shares, but this will not help.
OLAM so far, cannot give a very positive assurance as such, the bond price, especially the prep, have gone down even more yesterday.
Now, reading the outstanding bonds that OLAM has, the only way to pay off the existing bond is thru new bonds, and I think, the new bonds will have to carry a rate of at least 10%, (ie junk bond rate) and this will add on to the financial burden of the company.
I am not a fan of straight bonds at all. If you ask my opinion, I will not buy this bond, I am only taking calculated risk and this one the risk is at the higher side.
If you are serious in it, don't take the prep bond, and look into the collateral first, consider those only with senior secure bonds.
I will drop u a PM later when I look into their financial statement.
BTW, look like the short sellers are not squaring their position. It seems to me that, these are very big short sellers, and have instrumented this for a few months.
Thanks Laguna, I am not in a hurry to take position. Staying at the sideline to watch, and if yield is very high, like greater than 10%, then may toss with the idea of gambling on this bond. I did mention before that I don't like gambling.;)
[quote=moneytalk]
BTW, look like the short sellers are not squaring their position. It seems to me that, these are very big short sellers, and have instrumented this for a few months.
Yup, very unwise to go against the big fishes.
One rule of thumb for me when going for straight bonds or perp bonds is to buy only companies who are not leveraged aggressively (SWIBER and OLAM IS OUT for ME). Buy bonds of companies who do not need the money. Their yields might be lower but it is precisely because they do not need the money. Market rates it as such.
If you want to buy leverage companies, go for their stocks. It is more a bet on the growth phase of the company.
One rule of thumb for me when going for straight bonds or perp bonds is to buy only companies who are not leveraged aggressively (SWIBER and OLAM IS OUT for ME). Buy bonds of companies who do not need the money. Their yields might be lower but it is precisely because they do not need the money. Market rates it as such.
If you want to buy leverage companies, go for their stocks. It is more a bet on the growth phase of the company.
Good and prudent advice. The other one to look at is the collateral.
SWIBER was so hot and fully sold out within hours as the yield is very attractive.
Usually block of 250k for bonds? Is it good?
Usually block of 250k for bonds? Is it good?
that is one of the reasons why I don't like straight bonds.
Maybe bought earlier during lethman have been getting more than 5% return and their values have all gone up. Lucky did not buy OLAM but bougth another one.
that is one of the reasons why I don't like straight bonds.
a crisis is brewing among sg listed companies.
is this the beginning of something big ???
time will tell
a crisis is brewing among sg listed companies.
is this the beginning of something big ???
time will tell
what sort of crisis?
creative accounting ....
repeat of s-chips counters we encounter in the past
creative accounting ....
repeat of s-chips counters we encounter in the past
I fail to understand the issue on the governance despite of all the so called independent directors and audit committee...
I fail to understand the issue on the governance despite of all the so called independent directors and audit committee...
in the past, all the ID was just a 'requirement' and act as a puppet to the paying co.
SGX can implement many governance checks but it is only a passive checks and does not served any purpose if a company decided to go aggressive with their accounts.
creative accounting ....
repeat of s-chips counters we encounter in the past
i never know got another method of accounting which is acceptable in business reporting..
:o
OLAM INTERNATIONAL ANNOUNCES PROPOSED US$750 MILLION
RENOUNCEABLE UNDERWRITTEN BOND-CUM-WARRANT RIGHTS ISSUE
100% of the issue to be sub-underwritten by Temasek
http://olamonline.com/wp-content/files_mf/1354533129PressRelease_BondRightsIssue.pdf
Retirement age going to be raised again?
wtf?
going to raise money again?
who will trust them now?
and is this perpetual bond?
i read that olam share shoot back up to 1.69 c
killing alot of short seller..:o
i read that olam share shoot back up to 1.69 c
killing alot of short seller..:o
they have grossly under-estimated the power of the institutional short sellers.
IMO, the neatest way is let S&P has the debts graded, afterall, they are not paying the cost of the rating. This is the only way, IMHO, to come out clean.
they have grossly under-estimated the power of the institutional short sellers.
IMO, the neatest way is let S&P has the debts graded, afterall, they are not paying the cost of the rating. This is the only way, IMHO, to come out clean.
Can't wash dirty linen in public lah:cool:
Can't wash dirty linen in public lah:cool:
failed to understand why Tamasek lend them such a strong support.
The only reason I can figure out, if they dont's give them support, then Tamasek will have a big chunk to write down, in term of bonds and shares
failed to understand why Tamasek lend them such a strong support.
The only reason I can figure out, if they dont's give them support, then Tamasek will have a big chunk to write down, in term of bonds and shares
The head is wet , might as well take a bath:cool:
Another boo-boo. Temasek will need a major overhaul.
failed to understand why Tamasek lend them such a strong support.
The only reason I can figure out, if they dont's give them support, then Tamasek will have a big chunk to write down, in term of bonds and shares
Its a lesson to never short someone who has a deep pocket
Its a lesson to never short someone who has a deep pocket
Muddy say that china protect fraudulent companies,
that's y he give up on china link companies.
May soon have to give up GLC companies here too.:cool:
buttercarp
04-12-12, 12:23
This Olam company, is the bond under SGS?
Allthepies
04-12-12, 13:31
muddy mud has its own motive la, muddy mud makes money from short selling la, a very unethical act if u ask me. so whatever muddy mud says it is for its own short selling gain.
not vested.
buttercarp
04-12-12, 13:36
I know nothing about Olam until now :o .
Now also I only know a bit about the company after reading about it on wikipedia and that Temasek is one of its major investors.
May I how will this company affect our economy?
I know nothing about Olam until now :o .
Now also I only know a bit about the company after reading about it on wikipedia and that Temasek is one of its major investors.
May I how will this company affect our economy?
Little impact even if it is busted, is just a listed company.:cool:
buttercarp
04-12-12, 14:12
Little impact even if it is busted, is just a listed company.:cool:
Ok, good.
Thanks.
So Mr B's prediction about property is unlikely to come true.
muddy mud has its own motive la, muddy mud makes money from short selling la, a very unethical act if u ask me. so whatever muddy mud says it is for its own short selling gain.
not vested.
Why short sellers are very unethical?
U can short commodities, index, call/put, etc etc. In a more perfect market, shorting is a good machanism to balance the risk and at time, protect the long term investors where they take a short position to cover their longs.
Why the market is only LONG then that is ethical? all short sellers are carrying their fair share of risks.
If the company is sound, and well supported, then why should they be concerned of short-sellers?
Little impact even if it is busted, is just a listed company.:cool:
I don't think it is of little impact,
all the banks with lendings to them, bond holders and shareholders running in billions of dollars, don't forget Tamasek is a major shareholders, and that is our taxpayers' monies.
On top of their, their suppliers as well.
I don't think it is of little impact,
all the banks with lendings to them, bond holders and shareholders running in billions of dollars, don't forget Tamasek is a major shareholders, and that is our taxpayers' monies.
On top of their, their suppliers as well.
Yup. When Enron went down, Arthur Anderson went down as well.
The head is wet , might as well take a bath:cool:
Yup.. best of all .. the bathtub , the water, the shampoo, the body foam all provided for BY taxpayers money(oh no..it's not.. it is from Ministry of Finance.. so not accountable to you). You just need to dip in and enjoy the process. This is like most fund managers, take a bet with others money.. You bet and win, you are hero. You bet and lose..oh well..it's not my money. another day of being a hero perharps.
I don't think it is of little impact,
all the banks with lendings to them, bond holders and shareholders running in billions of dollars, don't forget Tamasek is a major shareholders, and that is our taxpayers' monies.
On top of their, their suppliers as well.
Life still goes on, look at the many bad investment , merrill lynch, ABC learning, etc....
They just need to raise GLS , COE , ERP , CPF. etc:cool:
Yup.. best of all .. the bathtub , the water, the shampoo, the body foam all provided for BY taxpayers money(oh no..it's not.. it is from Ministry of Finance.. so not accountable to you). You just need to dip in and enjoy the process. This is like most fund managers, take a bet with others money.. You bet and win, you are hero. You bet and lose..oh well..it's not my money. another day of being a hero perharps.
Is like betting horses, hopefully u bet on the right one:cool:
www.muddywatersresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/MW_OLAM_12042012.pdf (http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/MW_OLAM_12042012.pdf)
new follow up from muddy.
very interesting read. you guys check it out.
olam still refuse to get S & P to do a bond rating check..:o
still go 'drag' more people down.. so evil!
well, Tamasek by full under-writing, makes all the banks as under writers, managers, superb happy, to have the 2% com without any efforts.
Quite sad to see how our money is invested these days. Does Olam give such as good return or is it really so strategic to invest in a commodity company to secure our food supply chain? The money can be better invested. No wonder graduates nowadays want to go into finance because big money is so easy to earn.
Quite sad to see how our money is invested these days. Does Olam give such as good return or is it really so strategic to invest in a commodity company to secure our food supply chain? The money can be better invested. No wonder graduates nowadays want to go into finance because big money is so easy to earn.
Then what to invest now?
The yield is so low , with so much liquidity.
:cool:
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