View Full Version : Medium Term Investment Strategy
Medium term here refer to 2-5 years, with the SSD, now perhaps is 5 years.
With the QE3 and the EU crisis, I sum up the following :
1. US$ is trending down, with interest rate near zero for the next 3 years
2. too much hot monies, and the hot monies, will flow to the countries with strong growth and currencies
3. inflation will stay high
4. with lower consumption in Europe and US, China economy will slow down, perhaps at 7-8% GDP, still good, not so over heating
In Sg, I see the over-supply of properties if the GDP growth and FT import is slow down.
So, what will be a good choice of asset class for medium term.
1. commodities : gold in particular, but not the base commodities
2. properties
3. bond and equities
I am looking at the asset allocation for medium term at
Property : 50%
Gold : 10%
Equity : 20%
Bond : 20%
I am also keen to know. Please do share the information. TIA.
i am more pro equity at this pt now. Property upside is limted. if u are looking at capital gain.
I rather equity 1st. make $$$ sell out by end Dec and put some profit in property then
i am more pro equity at this pt now. Property upside is limted. if u are looking at capital gain.
I rather equity 1st. make $$$ sell out by end Dec and put some profit in property then
Property 50%
Equity 20%
Cash 10%
Gold 20%
phantom_opera
17-09-12, 14:42
China-A still very weak ... be very careful ... I would rather play safe and do a 5y bond @ 3.5-4% yield
Of course, the problem of bond is inflation risk and interest rate risk (which is minimal for a 5y bond as US Fed already said zero rate till end 2015) ..
http://img2.quotes.ws.126.net/chart/timechartb/0000001.png
China-A still very weak ... be very careful ... I would rather play safe and do a 5y bond @ 3.5-4% yield
ya, China market is still weak, but seeing a base formation around this level and perhaps another 5% down side risk
phantom_opera
17-09-12, 14:45
ya, China market is still weak, but seeing a base formation around this level and perhaps another 5% down side risk
The key problem is we do not know whether we are at the base already or still at the 10 th floor :scared-3:
If US / Japan goes into economic war over Senkaku ... a Black Swan could happen
And the sentiment post QE3 is just too bullish ... when everybody is bullish, I am scared :scared-1:
The key problem is we do not know whether we are at the base already or still at the 10 th floor :scared-3:
If US / Japan goes into economic war over Senkaku ... a Black Swan could happen
And the sentiment post QE3 is just too bullish ... when everybody is bullish, I am scared :scared-1:
If it is a 80 storey building, 10th floor is not so bad...
If it is just a 15 storey, then it is scary
Property : 50%
Gold : 10%
Equity : 20%
Bond : 20%
I don't know about 5 years but QE3 should tell you(at least for short term) to invest most in Gold and commodities and least in bonds. I am 0% for bonds currently.
phantom_opera
17-09-12, 14:58
上证指数2078.22-2.15%
招商地产19.30-7.12%
万 科Ａ8.05-3.48%
中国平安40.05-2.39%
I have no stocks right now ... still waiting for China-A to go below 2k
phantom_opera
17-09-12, 15:09
CapitaLand Limited announced that CapitaLand Treasury Limited (the "Issuer"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of CapitaLand, has priced the offering of US$400,000,000 4.076% notes due 2022 (the Notes).
10y but EUR SGD currency risk
上证指数2078.22-2.15%
招商地产19.30-7.12%
万 科Ａ8.05-3.48%
中国平安40.05-2.39%
I have no stocks right now ... still waiting for China-A to go below 2k
Tomorrow, shall be a crisis day for them...perhaps can buy some for short term trade
Allthepies
17-09-12, 19:03
dont be scared, equity is king now, the only short point is it has no leverage.most of my portfolio stocks up more than 10% since last week : ) too bad no leverage, can only earn peanuts.
East Lover
17-09-12, 19:12
Found this blog
美联储本轮QE3是一场骗局
这年头真的很乱。
美国驻利比亚大使遭遇枪袭，三人遇难，全球震惊。美国派出50名特种兵前往叙利亚，是派兵吗？不是，因为他们连番号都没有。不是派兵吗？显然不用小瞧这支连番号都没有的50名美国大兵，他们的作战能力一定很强。这事可能搞大了。这是真的战火，因为利比亚给美国留下很多口实。
本朝大城市近日不是深圳烧警车，就是上海砸日产车，说是抵制日货，实乃发泄而已。钓鱼岛这事，官方亦宣势主权，更加挑起民众的爱国热情，很多军事战略家正在呼吁开火，有的放出狠话一天就可以结束战斗，让日本亡国。这火哪里开的起来？日本也亡不了，这是人人皆知的事，偏偏就有那么一伙专家借机挑逗。说不定是官方为了回避日益尖锐的社会矛盾而借此转移视线，掺合进去的都是受蒙骗的民众。
真假QE3。
很多投机客在欢呼，美联储推出QE3，全球各大央行都开动印钞机，什么资产都会上涨。果真如此吗？9月14日凌晨，美联储麾下联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)在结束为期两天的会议后宣布，0-0.25%的超低利率的维持期限将延长到2015年中，联储将从周五开始推出进一步量化宽松政策(QE3)，每月采购400亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)，现有扭曲操作(OT)等维持不变。
抵押贷款支持证券的作用和美国国债的作用完全不同，上两次QE全部用于购买国债是以美国国债的信誉背书，向全球释放货币，在美联储的操作上，每当释放货币就会购买国债，这些钱可以打压美元指数，拉动风险货币上涨，给资本市场释放流动性推动大宗资产价格上涨。在第一轮QE中，美联储从2008年11月开始购买了共计1.25万亿美元按揭证券、1750亿美元机构债和3000亿美元国债，并于2008年12月将基准利率下调至零。第二轮QE中，联储从2010年11月到2011年6月间共购买了6000亿美元国债。而本次小批量的印钞，主要是购买MBS，那么，将帮助降低中长期贷款利率，以帮助美国本土房地产和制造业迅速复苏。
在货币战略上起的作用有三点：
第一点短期推动大宗资产价格和风险货币上涨，因为市场会跟风炒作QE3，这一点已经收到效果，给全球萎靡不振的经济打一次鸡血。第二点反击中国央行在今年56月间一个月的时间里连续两次降息刺激楼市泡沫，购买MBS的主要作用就是给房地产的贷款进行降息，与中国争夺房地产的资金。上周，万科宣布去美国开发房地产，我就看出事出有因，大骂万科煞笔，很多网友不解，现在问题来了，中国房地产商赚够了中国百姓的钱，现在都将纷纷流入美国。第三点推动美国本土的经济复苏和就业增长，因为这些小批量的印钞增强了美国本土的流动性，为美国股市和制造业的回归创造了一个良好的金融环境。这是一箭三雕。
伯南克本人就表示，本次QE主要目的是：1失业率年初至今未有丝毫改善；2新量宽对储蓄者长期有益；3美联储无意推高通胀；4不会为失业率设定目标；5正在考虑其他工具提振就业；6允许联储内部不同声音。
所以，本次QE3是一次假的QE，不是为全球输出通胀的，也根本不需要，因为美元和美元资产和制造业正在返回本土，需要大量的流动性支撑。这样一来，2013年14年美国经济复苏的势头更加迅猛，所以，本次联储会议19名官员中有12名官员预期2015年开始加息，一名预期2016年加息。
i am more pro equity at this pt now. Property upside is limted. if u are looking at capital gain.
I rather equity 1st. make $$$ sell out by end Dec and put some profit in property then
x 10..:cheers4::cheers4::cheers4::cheers4::cheers4:
dont be scared, equity is king now, the only short point is it has no leverage.most of my portfolio stocks up more than 10% since last week : ) too bad no leverage, can only earn peanuts.
CFD...........:cheers4:
East Lover
17-09-12, 19:52
x 10..:cheers4::cheers4::cheers4::cheers4::cheers4:
Bro, how is your house hunting?? :D
U move back after PSLE?
Allthepies
18-09-12, 07:32
CFD...........:cheers4:
CFD need to pay right : ) the longer u hold the panicker u become : ) : ) : ) : )
Found this blog
美联储本轮QE3是一场骗局
这年头真的很乱。
美国驻利比亚大使遭遇枪袭，三人遇难，全球震惊。美国派出50名特种兵前往叙利亚，是派兵吗？不是，因为他们连番号都没有。不是派兵吗？显然不用小瞧这支连番号都没有的50名美国大兵，他们的作战能力一定很强。这事可能搞大了。这是真的战火，因为利比亚给美国留下很多口实。
本朝大城市近日不是深圳烧警车，就是上海砸日产车，说是抵制日货，实乃发泄而已。钓鱼岛这事，官方亦宣势主权，更加挑起民众的爱国热情，很多军事战略家正在呼吁开火，有的放出狠话一天就可以结束战斗，让日本亡国。这火哪里开的起来？日本也亡不了，这是人人皆知的事，偏偏就有那么一伙专家借机挑逗。说不定是官方为了回避日益尖锐的社会矛盾而借此转移视线，掺合进去的都是受蒙骗的民众。
真假QE3。
很多投机客在欢呼，美联储推出QE3，全球各大央行都开动印钞机，什么资产都会上涨。果真如此吗？9月14日凌晨，美联储麾下联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)在结束为期两天的会议后宣布，0-0.25%的超低利率的维持期限将延长到2015年中，联储将从周五开始推出进一步量化宽松政策(QE3)，每月采购400亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)，现有扭曲操作(OT)等维持不变。
抵押贷款支持证券的作用和美国国债的作用完全不同，上两次QE全部用于购买国债是以美国国债的信誉背书，向全球释放货币，在美联储的操作上，每当释放货币就会购买国债，这些钱可以打压美元指数，拉动风险货币上涨，给资本市场释放流动性推动大宗资产价格上涨。在第一轮QE中，美联储从2008年11月开始购买了共计1.25万亿美元按揭证券、1750亿美元机构债和3000亿美元国债，并于2008年12月将基准利率下调至零。第二轮QE中，联储从2010年11月到2011年6月间共购买了6000亿美元国债。而本次小批量的印钞，主要是购买MBS，那么，将帮助降低中长期贷款利率，以帮助美国本土房地产和制造业迅速复苏。
在货币战略上起的作用有三点：
第一点短期推动大宗资产价格和风险货币上涨，因为市场会跟风炒作QE3，这一点已经收到效果，给全球萎靡不振的经济打一次鸡血。第二点反击中国央行在今年56月间一个月的时间里连续两次降息刺激楼市泡沫，购买MBS的主要作用就是给房地产的贷款进行降息，与中国争夺房地产的资金。上周，万科宣布去美国开发房地产，我就看出事出有因，大骂万科煞笔，很多网友不解，现在问题来了，中国房地产商赚够了中国百姓的钱，现在都将纷纷流入美国。第三点推动美国本土的经济复苏和就业增长，因为这些小批量的印钞增强了美国本土的流动性，为美国股市和制造业的回归创造了一个良好的金融环境。这是一箭三雕。
伯南克本人就表示，本次QE主要目的是：1失业率年初至今未有丝毫改善；2新量宽对储蓄者长期有益；3美联储无意推高通胀；4不会为失业率设定目标；5正在考虑其他工具提振就业；6允许联储内部不同声音。
所以，本次QE3是一次假的QE，不是为全球输出通胀的，也根本不需要，因为美元和美元资产和制造业正在返回本土，需要大量的流动性支撑。这样一来，2013年14年美国经济复苏的势头更加迅猛，所以，本次联储会议19名官员中有12名官员预期2015年开始加息，一名预期2016年加息。
google translate for radha :D
Fed the current round QE3 is a hoax
This year is really a mess.
U.S. Ambassador to Libya suffered the shooting, three people were killed, the world shocked. Sent 50 U.S. special forces to Syria sent troops do? Not because they successive numbers are not. Not to send troops to do? Obviously do not look down upon this successive numbers are not the 50 American soldiers, their ability to fight certain strong. This may make great. This is really war, because Libya to the United States left many an excuse.
This towards the big cities recently burned a police car, not Shenzhen Shanghai smashing Nissan cars, said the boycott of Japanese goods, an exercise in vent only. This matter of the Diaoyu Islands, the official Fang Yixuan potential sovereignty, more to provoke people's patriotic enthusiasm, many military strategists are calling "fire", some released relentless "day to end the fighting, let Japan subjugation". Where the fire opened up? Japan, death can not, this is well known, but why there is a group of experts the opportunity to tease. Might official in order to avoid the increasingly sharp social contradictions to pass the line of sight, blending into the people are deceived.
True and false QE3.
A lot of speculators in the cheers, the Fed launched QE3, the world's major central banks are printing money, what assets will rise. This really true? In the early morning of September 14, the Federal Reserve under the command of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced after the end of the two-day meeting ,0-0.25% of ultra-low interest rates to maintain the deadline will be extended to 2015, the Federal Reserve will start on Friday launched further quantitative easing (QE3), monthly purchases of $ 40 billion of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), the the existing distortions operation (OT) remain unchanged.
The mortgage support the role of the securities and U.S. Treasury bonds is completely different from the two previous QE used exclusively for the purchase of government bonds based on the credibility of the endorsement of the U.S. Treasury bonds, to release to the global currency, whenever the release of the currency will buy bonds in the Fed's operating the money can be weighed on the dollar index, pulling risk currencies rose, releasing liquidity to the capital markets to promote bulk asset prices. In the first round of QE, the Fed started from November 2008 to purchase a total of $ 1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities, $ 175 billion of agency debt and 300 billion U.S. dollars of treasury bonds and benchmark interest rates to zero in December 2008. In the second round of QE, the Fed from November 2010 to June 2011, purchased a total of 600 billion dollars in bonds. The small quantities of Banknote Printing, mainly to buy the MBS will help reduce the medium-and long-term lending rates, real estate and manufacturing sectors of the United States to help rapid recovery.
Monetary strategy on the role of three things:
The first point of the short-term to promote bulk asset prices and the risk of currency to rise, because the market will follow the trend of speculation QE3, it has received to the effect of every chicken blood to the flagging global economy. The second point to fight back in a month's time in the 56 months of this year, the Chinese central bank twice cut interest rates to stimulate the property market bubble, buy MBS's main role is to cut interest rates for real estate loans, to compete with the Chinese real estate funds. Last week, China Vanke announced the development of real estate to the United States, I see not accidental and accusing Wanke Shabi, many users did not understand the question now comes the Chinese real estate business to earn enough money from the Chinese people now are flowing into the United States. The third point is to promote the economic recovery and employment growth in the United States, because these small quantities of Banknote Printing and enhance liquidity in the United States, to create a good financial environment for the return of the U.S. stock market and manufacturing. This is to kill three birds.
Bernanke himself said the main purpose of the QE: an unemployment rate so far this year has not the slightest improvement; the 2 wide amount of new long-term beneficial savers; 3 Fed does not intend to push up inflation; 4 will not set a target for the unemployment rate ; 5 are considering other tools to boost employment; 6 allows the Fed different voices within.
So, the QE3 is a false QE, not output global inflation, but also do not need, because of the dollar and dollar-denominated assets and manufacturing are returning to the local community, requires a large amount of liquidity support. Thus, the more rapid the momentum of the recovery of the U.S. economy in 2013, 14 years, 12 officials, 19 officials of the Fed meeting is expected to start raising interest rates in 2015, one in 2016 is expected to raise interest rates.
My allocation
gold 10%
Bond 70%
Equity 20%
dont foresee qe4, will pare down gold and bond
and allocate to equity
phantom_opera
18-09-12, 21:11
property overweight
bond underweight
stocks none (but waiting to buy China-A)
property overweight
bond underweight
stocks none (but waiting to buy China-A)
how to buy China-A????
sori to ask...
phantom_opera
18-09-12, 21:41
how to buy China-A????
sori to ask...
DBXT CSI300 10US$
UETF SSE50China10
3024 if you have HK trading account
Waiting for US Fiscal Cliff
phantom_opera
18-09-12, 22:24
China and Japan now almost holding the same amount of US Treasuries
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/09/China%20and%20Japan_0.jpg
DBXT CSI300 10US$
UETF SSE50China10
3024 if you have HK trading account
Waiting for US Fiscal Cliff
can share ur view on the fiscal cliff???
phantom_opera
18-09-12, 22:33
the effect of printing trillions on US housing market so far
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2012/09/16/opinion/091612krugman1/091612krugman1-blog480.jpg
phantom_opera
18-09-12, 22:38
can share ur view on the fiscal cliff???
Actually I kind of agree with Paul Krugman that in order to pump prime the economy, US garmen must spend more (just like China garmen)... but now fiscal cliff becomes a political issue ... and if u observe the stock and oil market, some people start to bet that fiscal cliff might be a problem that could neutralize QE3's inflationary effort
This WSJ article sums it up nicely
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120918-706558.html
phantom_opera
18-09-12, 23:26
Fedex QE3 excitement is short-lived
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=FDX&t=5d&q=l&l=on&z=l&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US®ion=US
Fedex QE3 excitement is short-lived
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=FDX&t=5d&q=l&l=on&z=l&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US®ion=US
this is expected...experience from all the QE...
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120918-706558.html
did not subscribe lah!
Nobody has position in oil and/or other cmdty ?
Myself already 50% pty, 30% bond, 10% cmdty, 10% standby, once a while some structural products just for fun... No equities for me either.
Anyone tried Genevva gold? Or other similar schemes?
Anyone tried Genevva gold? Or other similar schemes?
they are in MAS's Investor Alert List.
Anyone tried Genevva gold? Or other similar schemes?
Are you kidding ? This is such a scandal it's really a shame MAS still hasn't banned it outright !
What it does is, it sells you a put option on gold with a huge premium. As long as gold price keeps on going up, customers will not put it back, and it earns the 20 to 30% premium paid. The moment gold price drops, customers will want to put back, and will face huge counterparty risk. The company can simply declare insolvent and all customers will be screwed.
I talked some one out of this some time ago. Please if you have friends still in it, ask them to get out ASAP !
phantom_opera
20-09-12, 23:15
Today, China stock index probably more reflective of actual economy than index of US/Europe
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/09/20120920_china_SPX_0.png
Are you kidding ? This is such a scandal it's really a shame MAS still hasn't banned it outright !
What it does is, it sells you a put option on gold with a huge premium. As long as gold price keeps on going up, customers will not put it back, and it earns the 20 to 30% premium paid. The moment gold price drops, customers will want to put back, and will face huge counterparty risk. The company can simply declare insolvent and all customers will be screwed.
I talked some one out of this some time ago. Please if you have friends still in it, ask them to get out ASAP !
But looks like gold (vs S$) likely to climb...
How about this?
http://www.asiaplantationsingapore.com/
Investing in agarwood commercial plantations...
Genevva in trouble now.
The Gold Guarantee next? Anyone into their scheme?
phantom_opera
04-10-12, 15:25
Barclays sells gold vault now to secure your gold bar lol
How about this?
http://www.asiaplantationsingapore.com/
Investing in agarwood commercial plantations...
dont invest unless you are physically present. Other will harvest the wood before you do. 6 years of waiting down the drain.
dont invest unless you are physically present. Other will harvest the wood before you do. 6 years of waiting down the drain.
But they "promise" 100% returns over 6 years...:beats-me-man:
But they "promise" 100% returns over 6 years...:beats-me-man:
If it's too good to be true... it probably isn't... look at those who got into genneva gold...:tongue3:
If it's too good to be true... it probably isn't... look at those who got into genneva gold...:tongue3:
But Lim Song Teck rescuing them leh.. His face big big in STimes..
But Lim Song Teck rescuing them leh.. His face big big in STimes..
Going from 1 scheme to another.... :tsk-tsk:
But Lim Song Teck rescuing them leh.. His face big big in STimes..
i read that article, is like self portraying as "hero to the rescue"...
really beats me :beats-me-man:
But they "promise" 100% returns over 6 years...:beats-me-man:
unfortunately, there are those who want 1000% return, they get something from nothing. and possession is 9 tenths of the law.
plantations are usually located in remote area.
u confront company or u confront the villagers also no point. money gone is money gone.
u can read all the fine prints in their contract meh?
But Lim Song Teck rescuing them leh.. His face big big in STimes..
I am not sure how is he going to do it with genneva gold.
The Gold Guarantee is working on the same model as genneva gold, as such, the risk is equally high.
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