View Full Version : Economy and Property Market during the 08/09 Global Recession
Slow day in the office today, business has been slowing down. More free time, thought I post some articles during the 08/09 global recession to show how bad the property market was heading before being rescued by QEs from major economies. Could be a useful reference if a new global recession hits us, history may repeat itself. Moreover the fall could be greater in a new global recession as Singapore's property prices and supply are now much greater than in 2008.
To understand how bad Singapore's economy was heading in the 08/09 global recession, please watch this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ie9SzMSkq5k and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DF91NOnYEXU&feature=relmfu. The PAP Govt was forecasting 9% contraction in 2009 for Singapore's economy, a long term recession and high unemployment. Fortunately Singapore was saved from the severe recession by FED's QE, ECB's LTRO and China's huge stimulus. But these central banks have already used most of their bullets in the last global recession and more QE increases debt which does not solve their fundamental economic problem of too much debt.
Which industry are you in?
Slow day in the office today, business has been slowing down. More free time, thought I post some articles during the 08/09 global recession to show how bad the property market was heading before being rescued by QEs from major economies. Could be a useful reference if a new global recession hits us, history may repeat itself. Moreover the fall could be greater in a new global recession as Singapore's property prices and supply are now much greater than in 2008.
To understand how bad Singapore's economy was heading in the 08/09 global recession, please watch this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ie9SzMSkq5k and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DF91NOnYEXU&feature=relmfu. The PAP Govt was forecasting 9% contraction in 2009 for Singapore's economy, a long term recession and high unemployment. Fortunately Singapore was saved from the severe recession by FED's QE, ECB's LTRO and China's huge stimulus. But these central banks have already used most of their bullets in the last global recession and more QE increases debt which does not solve their fundamental economic problem of too much debt.
Singapore property articles during the 08/09 global recession.
River Valley condo Luma relaunches with prices halved
The Business Times (http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/) - November 16, 2008
By: Seow Li Sen
[SINGAPORE] The big property sale has begun – although, in this case, it could reflect the situation of the developer rather than the state of the market.
Prices have been slashed by half at Luma, a 75-unit freehold luxury condominium at River Valley Grove.
Relaunching this weekend, units at Luma are being offered at $1,450 per square foot, down almost 50 per cent from $2,800 psf when it was first launched last year.
About 6 units had been sold, mainly in Dubai and Hong Kong.
SISV-Realink data shows two units on the 25th floor changed hands at $2,837 psf and $2,586 psf in April this year.
These prices were already much lower than those for two units on the 20th and 26th floors, which went for $3,349 psf and $3,291 psf in August last year.
At the time, some speculated that prices could soon reach $4,000 psf.
Luma (which will be completed in 2011) has three units on each floor, ranging from 743 sq feet to 1,173 sq feet. The developer behind the project is the mid-sized Novelty Group, which is also in the department store business. Luma sits on an en-bloc site at River Valley Grove which Novelty bought in 2006 for $27 million, or about $450 psf per plot ratio.
The relaunch of Luma is believed to be the first among luxury condominiums as other developers are holding back, given the weak market.
Nicholas Mak, director of research and consultancy at Knight Frank, said more of the smaller developers could be relaunching at lower prices.
“The bigger ones are discreetly offering soft discounts, such as lifestyle vouchers,” he said.
“I think the chief aim is to move units, to increase sales. They’ve probably done their sums – they expect to do a level of sales to achieve breakeven point, which will lower their borrowings and feel more comfortable,” Mr Mak added.
Banks are probably repricing loans, and some developers that have revolving facilities or variable-rate loans may feel the pinch.
“More smaller developers will be doing this if the economic situation worsens,” said Mr Mak.
The Novelty Group also bought White House Park Apartments in Stevens Road for $22 million from Asia General Holdings. It also has developments in Pasir Panjang, Geylang, Yio Chu Kang and Pasir Ris.
Which industry are you in?
Not comfortable to say exactly which industry but it is related to maritime, 80% of our business are exports to overseas customers.
Not comfortable to say exactly which industry but it is related to maritime, 80% of our business are exports to overseas customers.
could have FOOLED me looking at ur nick i thought u were in AEROSPACE....:D....nice thread CANT wait for it to EVER EVER come true...:p
Singapore property articles during the 08/09 global recession.
Prices of private homes falling
Developers offer soft discounts, for example, by absorbing legal fees
The Straits Times (http://www.straitstimes.com/) - December 28, 2008
By: Joyce Teo
Private home prices are falling - and they will fall even more next year.
Property developers may disagree, but there is no question about it, if you ask industry observers.
The economy has slowed considerably and there have been retrenchments and wage cuts.
Sales volume of new homes looks set to reach an 18-year low this year, while supply is far from lacking.
'In every bear market, no matter what the developers say, it will happen,' Mr Leong Sze Hian, the president of the Society of Financial Service Professionals, said of the price falls.
The only unknown, he added, is the extent of the fall.
Manpower Ministry data already shows that average monthly real earnings - pay minus the effect of inflation - fell by 17 per cent from $3,982 in the first quarter to $3,307 in the third quarter.
Also, on an annualised quarter-on-quarter basis, gross domestic product growth in the third quarter declined by 6.8 per cent, continuing the 5.3 per cent contraction experienced in the second quarter.
'All these will filter through to the property market,' said Mr Leong.
Right now, most buyers are remaining on the sidelines. New launches are few, and there are not many desperate sellers out there yet.
'Most are not feeling any pain from the recession yet. In the secondary market, many sellers are still hoping to do sub-sale at a profit,' said Knight Frank's director of research and consultancy, Mr Nicholas Mak.
The result? There are no major price reductions yet, he said.
Going forward, though, there could be more speculators desperate to get rid of their properties because they do not want to be saddled with huge loans, experts say.
These are people who bought properties when the market was booming under the deferred payment scheme, which means they will have to pay the full sum for the property upon completion.
The Government has said some 10,450 units of private homes sold under the deferred payment scheme have yet to be completed. Some 2,540 units - largely bought during last year's boom - will be completed in 2010.
In the new homes market, there will be more new property launches or re-launches after Chinese New Year late next month, consultants say.
Frasers Centrepoint, for one, has plans to release Caspian, its 700-unit condo near the Lakeside MRT station.
'The smaller projects or those in less attractive locations will likely need to offer more discount,' said Mr Mak.
'Others may offer soft discount, so that the prices reflected in the caveats will not be reduced.'
Soft discounts can take the form of furniture vouchers or the absorption of legal fees or stamp duty.
There could be price cuts in some mid-tier or prime developments where prices are 'fairly toppish', Mr Mak said. 'They would, thus, have to adjust their prices to a more reasonable level.'
Novelty Group, for one, last month cut its price for the 75-unit Luma at River Valley Grove from $2,800 per sq ft (psf) to $1,450 psf.
Recently, City Developments adjusted its price for the 77-unit Shelford Suites in Shelford Road to $1,400 psf from a preview price of $1,600 psf on average in June. The price then was already lower than expected, as two units were sold in March at $1,869 psf and $1,905 psf.
Those seeking information on new launches can check out the Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA's) website, which offers monthly sales and price data on the 15th of every month.
It shows the number of units sold in the past month, as well as the median, lowest and highest prices done.
The URA website also has information on individual caveats lodged for properties sold, so you can find out the prices done at a particular condo.
The problem here is that the information is not very up-to- date because deals take time to complete and caveats take time to lodge.
The price data can easily be two to three months old, which can be a long time in today's fast-moving market.
Potential buyers should check with their agents to ascertain the previous price levels done or check classified advertisements for the latest asking prices, experts say.
They should also try to get a bank valuation on the property they are eyeing, said HSR Property Group executive director Eric Cheng.
Those who want to buy a resale property now can bid below individual sellers' asking prices. They could aim for 5 per cent to 8 per cent below asking levels, said Mr Cheng.
Also, buyers should look for tenanted resale properties that can offer a 4 per cent to 5 per cent rental yield for at least the next year, said Mr Ku Swee Yong, the director of marketing and business development at Savills Singapore.
'In today's market, it is wise to buy something that you can see and profit from immediately,' he said.
The risk with new projects is that they could be delayed or their prices could fall from today's levels, he said.
But, be prudent and patient, warned Mr Cheng. 'Don't buy on impulse.'
since u got time bro and i got PLENTY more time..:D...happy reading this is what happened in 08/09...:D
http://eleaston.com/chicken.html
phantom_opera
28-08-12, 14:30
with Baltic Dry Index at such low level, shipping will be in bad shape ..I am not sure maritime is related
actually we must thank Bernanke, he rescued all of us from brink in 2009 ... I still remembered MM Lee spoke about -9% GDP :scared-1:
and he will be remembered in history as hero I can guarantee you
Not comfortable to say exactly which industry but it is related to maritime, 80% of our business are exports to overseas customers.
WA.. in the frontline of the economy..
The pulse of the economy is at your fingertips..
So can share how your industry and company doing now? Slowing? Picking Up?
could have FOOLED me looking at ur nick i thought u were in AEROSPACE....:D....nice thread CANT wait for it to EVER EVER come true...:p
Seletar, because I grew up there when it was ulu kampong farmland and I still live around that area and playing at seletar country club.
NB!! MISSED THE BOAT EXPERT SELETAR airbase (aka MR B).. Your still act blur try to predict again??!!
Over at MR B's Useless thread you said pty price will crash "next month" since few months ago.. Crash till now no news.. End up act blur create your own thread hah!!:doh:
Singapore property articles during the 08/09 global recession.
Time to lower home prices
Property developers should consider this step to lure back buyers.
The Straits Times (http://www.straitstimes.com/) - December 31, 2008
By: Fiona Chan
WHEN a property boom here ends, the first casualty is usually home supply.
Sure enough, the Government put a stop to new land sales early this month, as it did in the last two downturns, making it as good an indicator as any that a property slump had arrived.
Developers have also been cutting supply throughout the year, pushing back en bloc redevelopments and putting some launches on hold indefinitely.
But though reducing supply is necessary to prevent the market from collapsing, it is clearly inadequate as a cure at this point. No land plots have changed hands for months, new launches have slowed to a trickle - and yet buyers are still not biting. Property ads have dried up and showflats are starting to resemble ghost towns.
When sales came to a standstill this year, developers blamed the financial crisis and government policy actions, such as the removal of the deferred payment scheme. But house hunters pointed to just one reason: Home prices are still too high.
The economy has shrunk for the first time since 2001, mass retrenchments are on the cards, and monthly sales of new homes have plummeted so much that experts warn total sales this year could reach an 18-year low. Yet private home prices - at least according to the Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA) price index - have not dropped by much.
In the third quarter, the URA's price data registered a fall of 2.3 per cent from the second quarter, after rising about 4 per cent in the first half of the year. This means prices in September were still higher than in January.
Anecdotally, analysts estimate that prices in the fourth quarter fell by up to 20 per cent in some developments. But prices jumped so much in the recent upturn - 31 per cent last year alone - that even if the URA's index does log an unlikely 20 per cent drop this quarter, prices at year-end would still be higher than at the start of last year, and far above the pre-boom levels in 2005.
Not all developers can cut prices for their projects without incurring big losses, especially those who bought plots at the peak of the boom last year. But developers who were canny enough to pick up land at the trough of the market have plenty of room to manoeuvre.
One example is CapitaLand's Latitude condominium at Jalan Mutiara. The developer bought the site for about $500 per sq ft (psf) in 2005 and sold units up to last month at $2,400 to $2,500 psf.
But down the road, Mutiara View is going for under $1,200 psf, while across the street, the new boutique condo RV Suites has been sold for $1,300 to $1,400 psf. According to agents, CapitaLand has quietly lowered prices recently to $2,000 to $2,100 psf.
Hong Leong's Aalto along Meyer Road is another example. The site was bought for about $410 psf in 2005, but units were sold for well over $2,000 psf last year and this year. No new units have been sold since May, according to URA data.
To be sure, there are valid reasons for developers not to cut prices.
For one thing, selling homes at lower prices could result in a fall in the valuations of their properties, which could in turn hurt their balance sheets and make it more difficult for them to raise funds in an already tight credit market. And some argue that slashing prices could also set off a price war.
But there are also compelling reasons to start lowering prices. Key among them is that the see-who-blinks-first game is clearly turning in favour of buyers. Prices are already falling, pushed down by smaller developers squeezed for cash and individual home sellers anxious to offload their units.
A boutique condominium in the Novena area reportedly gave significant discounts - from over $1,300 psf down to just under $1,000 psf - after the financial crisis hit hard in October. At soon-to-be-completed developments such as City Square Residences in Kitchener Road, prices have fallen from a high of over $1,000 psf last year to less than $800 psf for some units in recent months.
Developers have said for months that they will maintain prices and ride out the storm. But the situation is set to worsen sharply for sellers as the economy contracts sharply. Even developers who can hold out are likely to find their property valuations hit anyway as prices come down throughout the market.
Lowering prices will bring buyers back into the market. Many have been waiting on the sidelines since early last year, when prices starting shooting up beyond their means.
Evania, a 35-unit condo in Upper Paya Lebar, moved 15 units last month after dropping prices from nearly $900 psf in March to just above $600 psf.
More positive news like this is exactly what is needed to restore sentiment in the market.
As for the threat of price wars, there is little basis in the argument. Prices are going to fall in any case, with or without a price war. The suggestion here is not for steep price cuts, just 'realistic' prices that will tempt buyers back into the market.
City Developments took some flak from its rivals after it priced its mass market condo Livia in Pasir Ris at an attractive $650 psf on average. But the launch was a huge success - and it has not caused a downward spiral.
Industry players have suggested that the Government step in with demand-boosting measures such as waiving, discounting or deferring stamp duty; resurrecting a fine-tuned version of the deferred payment scheme; and tweaking CPF rules to allow buyers more financing leeway.
Developers themselves have already started absorbing stamp duty and interest for selected projects, and rolled out gimmicks such as renovation allowances and vouchers for electrical appliances.
These measures might help make the buying environment more conducive, but nothing would speak more persuasively to potential buyers than a discount.
In a year when everything is going to go on sale, property developers should consider joining the crowd.
Singapore property articles during the 08/09 global recession.
Q4 private home price slide is worst in decade
Some consultants notice yawning bid-ask gaps leading to distressed transacted prices.
The Business Times (http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/) - January 3, 2009
By: Kalpana Rashiwala
IN its worst showing since Q4 1998, the official private home price index slid 5.7 per cent in Q4 last year over the preceding quarter. For full-year 2008, the index fell 4.3 per cent, reversing a 31.2 per cent jump in 2007.
Property consultants are predicting a further decline of 10-20 per cent this year in the benchmark index, with upmarket homes continuing to be the worst hit, as in 2008. This sector was the most overheated during the run-up in 2006 and 2007.
'The bid-ask gap is very high; any buyer that comes in now wants to make sure he's buying at very attractive prices to cushion against future risk. As a result, most transacted prices are quite distressed,' said DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah.
BT understands buyers are looking at prices at least 20 per cent below Q3 2008 levels before they are willing to commit.
URA's non-landed private home price index for Core Central Region (CCR) fell 6.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter in Q4, or a full-year drop of 5.5 per cent. CCR includes the prime districts, financial district and Sentosa Cove. In the Rest of Central Region, the price drop was 5.5 per cent for Q4, and 4 per cent for the full year. Outside Central Region, a proxy for suburban mass-market locations, suffered the smallest declines, of 4.7 per cent in Q4 and 1.6 per cent for the whole year.
The declines in URA's indices were far smaller than the price drops estimated by property consultants. CB Richard Ellis said that last year, average prices of new luxury homes under construction fell 30 to 35 per cent for prime districts 9 and 10, while those in Marina Bay and Sentosa Cove eased 10-13 per cent.
URA's price indices are weighted according to the moving average mix of transactions for the preceding 12 quarters, and this tends to make changes in the indices more muted during sharp market swings.
For this year, JP Morgan analyst Chris Gee said: 'The critical factor that will affect private home prices in 2009 - probably more importantly than the economy and jobs market - will be banks' financing of property. Banks seem happy to lend to the right type of buyers, but they're more conservative on valuations and tighter on loan-to-value.'
As for developers, smaller players have already started to chop prices. 'Among bigger developers, some are restructuring their portfolios and re-evaluating their risk positions,' DTZ's Mrs Ong noted.
A seasoned developer pointed to a diversity of strategies among developers, according to their financial strength, profit margin for each project and their view of when the recovery will take place. 'Some will cut and sell; some will package things that effectively give more discounts; some will lease instead of selling; some will just sit it out and wait for better times.
'Projects will be slowed down or delayed, stretching out the supply coming into the market, which in itself is a regulating mechanism,' he said.
In the public housing segment, the Housing & Development Board's (HDB) resale flat price index still inched up 1.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter in Q4 to scale a new peak. But this was slower than the 4.2 per cent rise posted in Q3.
ERA Asia Pacific associate director Eugene Lim said: 'We've been seeing more transactions with decreasing cash-over-valuations (COVs). The days of transactions with above $50,000 COVs are over.'
He is predicting a sub-1 per cent rise in the HDB resale flat price index for each of Q1 and Q2 this year. 'If the recovery takes longer, we may see the price index flatten in H2 2009 before decreasing, if the situation worsens.'
Knight Frank director Nicholas Mak predicted a 5 to 10 per cent correction in HDB resale flat prices this year, as the weakening economic conditions filter into the HDB market.
ERA's Mr Lim noted that 'in uncertain times, home buyers go for the 'safer' option of HDB flats to ease their financial burden'. He estimated 30,000 to 31,000 HDB resale transactions were done in 2008 - surpassing the 29,436 in 2007.
As for the private housing sector, CBRE predicted developers may sell 5,000-6,000 units in 2009, as falling prices boost take-up. It put the figure for last year at 4,300 to 4,400 units - just 30 per cent of 2007's record volume. Sales also slowed in the secondary market. CBRE estimated about 7,400 to 7,600 resale deals were done last year - against nearly 21,000 transactions in 2007. The 1,600 to 1,650 subsale deals it estimated for 2008 were also a far cry from the 2007's figure of 4,863.
phantom_opera
28-08-12, 14:54
really meaningless to look back in 2008/2009 .. might as well quote 2003/2004 to see how low it can go
BISHAN 8 Condominium Bishan Street 21 144sqm 770k 496.77psf 02-Mar-03
for this to happen land price must crash to 150psf for Bishan from a high of 8xxpsf bought by our Liew Mun Leong
u need a world wide depression ... for many years to see that kind of price
Singapore property articles during the 08/09 global recession.
Bargain hunting starts in tepid property market
Four recent sub-sales have been transacted at 20% below launch prices.
The Business Times (http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/) - January 9, 2009
By: Arthur Sim
THE hunting season seems have begun in the property market, with at least four buyers making a killing.
A UBS report says that according to URA data, four recent sub-sales have been transacted at 20 per cent below launch prices.
Two units at Ardmore II were sub-sold for $2,000 per sq ft, compared with the last-transacted price of $2,400 psf. One unit at Scotts Square was sold at $3,050 psf, compared with the last-transacted price of $3,850 psf in the second quarter of last year.
And one unit at Sky @ Eleven was sold at $880 psf, compared with the last transacted price of $1,270 psf in Q2 2007.
'Prior to this, we believe there has not been a single sub-sale transaction more than 11 per cent below the new sale price for the same unit,' said UBS analyst Regina Lim.
UBS believes that the sharply lower sub-sale prices signal a major change in buyers' risk appetite and the outlook for Singapore residential property.
It noted that some projects sold in 2006 and expected to be completed by Q4 this year could be the subject of defaults by buyers if sub-sale prices fall 30 per cent below launch prices.
'This is especially as 40 per cent of buyers of new apartments above $1.5 million were foreigners or companies in 2006 and 2007, and it may be difficult not to repudiate the sale-and-purchase agreements for these buyers if they default,' UBS said.
Cushman and Wakefield managing director Donald Han said that he does not expect many sub-sales to be transacted at big losses because developments that will receive their temporary occupation permit (TOP) this year - and hence, requiring loan draw-downs - are likely to have been launched in 2006 before prices peaked.
But he added: 'People that bought in 2007 and 2008 will want to get out of the market.'
Knight Frank director (research and consultancy) Nicholas Mak said that 'not all sub-sales lose money'. Some recent sub-sales showed price increases, he noted.
Still, prime properties are likely see the biggest drop in prices, as these rose the most in the past few years, he said.
In its report, UBS says that prices in the primary market have also been cut.
Among new launches, the 104-unit Newton Edge, priced at $1,201 psf, is some 23 per cent cheaper than Viva, where 15 units were sold in Q3 last year for around $1,550 psf. And at RV Suites in River Valley Road, 19 units have been sold at $1,350 psf, which is 15 per cent below Wharf Residences at $1,600 psf and 38 per cent below Martin 38.
Singapore property articles during the 08/09 global recession.
Developer sales plumb new depths
Home sales hit record lows in 2008 but new launches are on the cards.
The Business Times (http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/) - January 16, 2009
By: Arthur Sim
(SINGAPORE) The year gone by was one to forget for developers as they managed to sell just 4,351 homes in 2008, representing the lowest figure in at least 10 years - diving beyond the previous troughs of 5,156 and 5,520 units in 2003 and 1998 respectively.
The sales in 2008 were also significantly lower than the annual 10-year average (1998-2007) of 8,200 units.
Developer sales fizzled out in the last month of 2008, registering just 131 transactions - less than five a day.
The number of projects with licences for sale in December has, however, risen to 8,350 units, up from 6,512 units in the previous month.
Only 157 new homes were launched in December, the lowest figure since developer data was made available in mid-2007. CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho said: 'This shows that developers kept their launch activity to a minimum as they monitored the market.'
But not all developers held back.
Macly Capital sold 43 units of the 104-unit Newton Edge on Makeway Avenue at the median price of $1,200 psf. Mr Li said the strength of the project lay in the affordable quantum of $500,000 to $900,000 for a majority of the units due to their small sizes ranging from 440-915 sq ft.
Pricing is likely to have been a factor also. An earlier report by UBS noted that Newton Edge was priced lower than VIVA at Suffolk Walk nearby, where 15 units were sold in Q3 2008 for around $1,550 psf.
Hayden Properties' The Ritz-Carlton Residences in Cairnhill also chalked up healthy sales at what appeared to be discounted prices. Eight units were sold at a median price of $3,086 psf.
Hayden Properties director (sales and marketing) David Neubronner revealed that the buyers comprise project shareholders and directors, with just one third-party transaction.
'The purchase prices by the related parties are preferential rates, and the purchase price paid by the third party reflects current market pricing,' he said.
Mr Neubronner added that the unit purchased by the third party is located on a lower floor and was priced at $3,700 psf, which is only an 8 per cent decrease from the initial launch price of $4,000 psf.
Colliers International director for research and advisory Tay Huey Ying noted that mid-tier projects in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) dominated launches in December, accounting for 72 per cent of the units launched during the month. 'This, following the domination of high-end projects in recent months, could be an indication of the weakening holding power among small and mid- tier developers,' she added.
RCR projects that sold in the month include 10 units at Nova 88 at a median price of $988 psf and nine units of The Aristo @ Amber at a median price of $1,002 psf.
'This decline in demand has led to the contraction in the islandwide URA property price index (PPI) of some 5.6 per cent as the market attempts to generate more activity through price reductions,' said Jones Lang LaSalle local director and head of research (South East Asia) Chua Yang Liang. 'Historically, take-up has been leading the PPI. On the back of this contraction in take-up in Q4'08, we can expect the PPI to contract further, possibly by another 5-7 per cent in Q1'09,' he said.
Nevertheless, some developers have been continuing to prepare developments for launch.
UOL is expected to launch a 646-unit development at Simei Street 4 billed as a luxury condominium for upgraders in the first half of 2009.
Frasers Centrepoint is also preparing to launch a development on Boon Lay Way. A spokesman said: 'Caspian, our 712-unit development on Boon Lay Way, is launch-ready. At this point, we are still finalising several details, with regard to the actual launch period, pricing, etc, and will announce them once we are ready.'
It is also understood that Far East Organization is preparing to launch a development in Choa Chu Kang this year.
Notably, all developments are in the Outside Central Region where property prices are not expected to fall as significantly as in the mid-tier and high-end segments.
Singapore property articles during the 08/09 global recession.
Resale flats going below valuation
Less cash needed now for bigger flats as market weakens amid financial crisis.
The Straits Times (http://www.straitstimes.com/) - February 1, 2009
By: Joyce Teo
A recent classified advertisement in The Straits Times offered a five-room flat near Ang Mo Kio Hub for a whopping $50,000 below its valuation of $640,000. Another one was offering five-room flats in Jurong for $10,000 to $15,000 below valuation.
These days, there are more and more advertisements for resale Housing Board flats going for zero cash or below valuation.
Indeed, the cash-over-valuation (COV) portion of an HDB resale flat deal - this is the amount over and above the flat's valuation that is payable only in cash - is falling faster than ever since it peaked a year ago.
Typically, the more desirable a resale flat is, the higher its COV.
In the fourth quarter of last year, the median COV for all HDB estates fell 21 per cent to $15,000, compared with a 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent decline in the previous three quarters, according to recently released HDB data.
Today, the COV has already moved lower, agents said. Not only is less upfront cash needed for resale deals, it is now also fairly easy to land a deal without forking out any COV or even find a flat that is priced below valuation.
Recent HDB data shows that about 85 per cent of all resale deals done in the fourth quarter last year required COV, which is 4 percentage points less than in the third quarter.
Some bigger flats selling at or below valuation
If you are aiming for a deal that falls within the remaining 15 per cent - deals done at valuation or below - you will have a high chance of success if you choose a five-room or an executive flat, property agency heads said.
Many of the bigger executive flats, in particular, are priced at or below valuation.
HSR Property Group's executive director, Mr Eric Cheng, said his agent sold an executive maisonette in Bukit Batok about three weeks ago for $55,000 below the valuation of $460,000.
'The seller's valuation report was going to expire. If he were to do a new one, the value would be lower,' he said.
There are more sellers than buyers for the bigger flats now, said Mr Steven Tan, executive director of OrangeTee's residential division.
'Affordability is an issue as the quantum is very high,' he said. Not many HDB buyers can easily afford a flat that costs $500,000 or more.
Ironically, flats in 'hot' areas such as Tiong Bahru and Queenstown are commanding less COV now because their values had appreciated a lot, he said.
For instance, the median COV for five-room flats in the once-hot town of Bukit Merah, which reached $61,000 in the third quarter of 2007, has since slipped to $10,000 in the fourth quarter of last year.
Overall, the COV for five-room flats registered a 35 per cent fall to $11,000 in the fourth quarter, from $17,000 in the third. This compares with a smaller 25 per cent fall in the COV of four-room flats.
Lower COV seen
As the market continues to weaken, buyers will want to pay less and less cash.
'What has happened lately is that people are resistant to paying high COV because valuation has gone up so much, easily by 20 per cent in the past year,' said PropNex chief executive Mohd Ismail.
'People are also a little hesitant to commit to a big monthly instalment because of such a gloomy economic outlook.'
Deals are now taking a little longer to close as buyers are negotiating harder, while sellers are taking longer to come to terms with falling COV, said ERA Asia-Pacific associate director Eugene Lim.
Given the weak economic outlook and the time lag between the private and HDB markets, there is no doubt that COV will continue to slide, with a bigger decline seen for bigger flats.
'Psychologically, people will avoid the bigger flats because the commitment is high,' said Mr Ismail.
In a downturn, demand for the smaller three- to four-room flats may also come from those downgrading from a private home, agency heads said.
Thus Mr Ismail is predicting that the overall median COV for bigger flats will easily drop to below $10,000 in the first half of the year, while the COV for the three- to four-room flats may drop only slightly.
Mr Lim said that as COV falls in general, HDB resale prices will also go down.
Singapore property articles during the 08/09 global recession.
Property sector needs govt help in refinancing $12b of debt
Government assistance is needed to get liquidity moving and reduce the risk of plummeting property values & pressure on the capital positions of lenders.
The Straits Times (http://www.straitstimes.com/) - February 5, 2009
By: Joyce Teo
The Government has been asked to help listed property firms here, especially real estate investment trusts (Reits), to refinance an estimated $12 billion in debt, given the frozen state of credit markets.
The appeal comes from the Singapore-based Asian Public Real Estate Association (Aprea), a body set up to represent the listed real estate sector in Asia.
“Government assistance is needed to get liquidity moving and reduce the risk of plummeting real estate values and pressure on the capital positions of lenders,” said a background paper by Aprea. “Its help is needed to restart the credit markets for commercial real estate debt.”
“This is an issue for the general commercial real estate market and, by extension, the broader real estate market and the broader economy,” said its chief executive Peter Mitchell yesterday.
Aprea has been submitting a series of proposals since last November to regulators in Singapore and Japan, seeking assistance in these unusual times, he said.
One assistance option would be a lending facility being implemented in Australia, said Aprea. The country announced a A$4 billion (S$3.86 billion) fund with four Australian banks to support lending in the commercial property sector.
The Singapore Government has unveiled measures to free credit to businesses here but nothing specifically aimed at listed real estate entities.
Inability to raise credit and refinance could lead to foreclosures, bankruptcies and forced sales, leading to market instability and a potential downward spiral, the paper said. “The more that real estate loans can’t get refinanced, the more risk there will be of losses for the banks, some of which can ill afford more losses.
“Banks’ jobs are to make loans, not own real estate. There is a risk that banks will not be able to absorb, manage and turn around properties at this scale if they come back to the lenders,” it said.
“The collapse of an otherwise healthy real estate market caused by general credit paralysis has the potential to significantly aggravate recessionary pressures.”
There is a risk of default being forced upon property owners that hold property with good cashflows, a risk that would not exist in a normally functioning credit market, it said.
The current negligible activity in commercial real estate market is a particular issue for Reits, which the paper described as a “handle with care” product.
Ratings agencies are talking about downgrading Singapore Reits because of refinancing concerns. But it is because of the dysfunctional credit environment and should not happen, said Mr Mitchell.
“It is not the Reits themselves having problems. They are just being impacted by the freezing of credit.”
Of the estimated $12 billion of refinancing needs this year, one-third is attributed to Reits. It is important to help Reits through the turmoil as they are what will attract investors as Singapore moves out of this downturn, he said.
“Investors are going to be risk-averse and will look for things that are liquid, transparent and lowly geared, equity-oriented investment. That’s what Reits are.”
Singapore property articles during the 08/09 global recession.
Property agents exit in droves
...but there's no dearth of recruits though; as housewives and those fearful of losing jobs queue up.
The Straits Times (http://www.straitstimes.com/) - February 6, 2009
By: Joyce Teo
Thousands of property agents have fled the industry over the past year amid the real estate slump but the tight job market here has forced new recruits to try their hand despite the lean pickings.
The number of people attending recruitment courses – anyone from housewives to sacked bankers have turned up – has leapt in recent months and property agencies believe the trend will continue.
But the loss of personnel has been dramatic, with industry experts estimating that around 8,000 to 10,000 have quit in the past 12 months, leaving about 18,000 to 20,000 active agents.
More are expected to drop out as the property market worsens but the extent of the fall is being offset by new recruits.
“In the trough of the property cycle, the attrition rate is higher but the bulk of those who exit are ‘opportunist agents’ who came in during the peak,” said Dr Tan Tee Khoon, head of KF Property Network, a Knight Frank subsidiary.
During the 2007 property boom, many people jumped into the market, hoping to make a quick buck as property agents.
Agencies were swamped with hopefuls from all corners of the economy, with new hires that included retirees, administrative staff, teachers, white- collar professionals and accountants.
Some property firms doubled their number of new hires from a year earlier.
“It was the all-time peak when the market was at its crazy stage. We used to have 200 people joining our courses every month,” said PropNex chief executive Mohd Ismail.
PropNex now has 4,000 active agents – defined as one who has closed at least one deal in the past year – after it terminated nearly 3,900 inactive agents over the past year.
Major agencies regularly axe agents who have not been active in 12 months.
ERA Asia-Pacific, with 2,500 active agents, had record recruitment in 2007.
“We had 300 people on average a month (in training courses) but now we get 150 to 180 a month; back to normal,” said associate director Eugene Lim.
While many more agents may drop out or be axed if they cannot seal deals, new ones will arrive.
“This market is really challenging but there’s new blood...You don’t need an educational background to get in,” said HSR Property Group executive director Eric Cheng. HSR has about 8,500 agents, with just over half who are active.
There is no fixed commission rate, though sellers may now pay 2 per cent, which works out to $10,000 for a $500,000 home.
The larger agencies – HSR, PropNex, ERA, Dennis Wee Group – all reported increased interest in recent recruitment drives and training courses which cost several hundred dollars.
A recent course attendee, who wanted to be known only as Kelvin, told The Straits Times: “I am in the manufacturing line. The market is pretty bad so I feel this is the right time to join the industry and learn so that I am ready when the market recovers.”
He did not want to give his surname as he is still in his full-time job.
“As unemployment increases, we notice that more people are taking an interest in our free recruitment seminars,” said Mr Lim.
“We also have agents from other small companies joining us since a year ago. These are the five-man, 10-man shows.”
Mr Chris Koh, director of Dennis Wee Properties, said his recent training courses attracted housewives who were worried that their husbands may lose their jobs.
“This time round, we are seeing a lot of people who are preparing for the worst. In the 1997 downturn, many who joined us had already been retrenched,” said Mr Koh.
HSR’s Mr Cheng said several people who attended its course have not joined the industry. “Some people want a stand-by job in case they lose their jobs,” he said.
C&H Realty managing director Albert Lu added: “During downturns, we usually see people who are retrenched come in and join us on a full-time basis.”
In recent days, he has recruited three agents. One was once a top performer at the agency who has made a comeback as his brother’s transport business has turned “very bad”.
The second agent was a small-time businessman in the construction field while the third was a retrenched banker.
C&H Realty has about 1,000 agents.
Agencies said the one good thing about a down cycle is the high chance of recruiting serious agents who will work hard and stay on in the industry.
really meaningless to look back in 2008/2009 .. might as well quote 2003/2004 to see how low it can go
MISSED THE BOAT EXPERT SELETAR airbase (aka MR B) just wanted to prove that he is right to sell away all his properties in the mid 2008.. Cos MR B (aka SELETAR airbase) Useless thread is going to close shop soon).. :D
Singapore property articles during the 08/09 global recession.
Sibor dives, but home loan rates go up
Most banks have raised their spreads to make up for increased risk and higher capital costs.
The Straits Times (http://www.straitstimes.com/) - February 19, 2009
By: Fiona Chan
A KEY interest rate that sets the cost of interbank lending has plunged in recent weeks, but those taking out new mortgages will be no better off.
The three-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate, or Sibor, dived to 0.68 per cent this month, bringing it near the all-time low of 0.63 per cent reached in June 2003.
The rate at which banks lend to one another has been dropping since September last year, and is expected to stay low.
But new home buyers expecting interest rates for Sibor-linked housing loans to fall in tandem will be disappointed.
To compensate for increased risk and the higher cost of capital, most banks have upped the spreads that they charge above Sibor, making Sibor-pegged home loans more expensive.
At DBS Bank, a home buyer taking a loan of 80 per cent of his property's value in July last year would have paid a rate of Sibor plus 1.25 percentage points. Now, a new buyer has to pay Sibor plus 1.75 percentage points.
Even though Sibor fell from 1 per cent to 0.68 per cent between last July and now, the rate charged has actually risen from 2.25 per cent to 2.43 per cent.
The margin on HSBC's standard Sibor-pegged package now stands at 1.25 points, up from 0.7 point last July. The rate has effectively risen to 1.93 per cent, from 1.7 per cent.
However, at least one bank - Citibank - has not raised its spreads on Sibor-linked loans. A customer applying for a loan now would get the same rate as last July's.
The bank's head of secured finance solutions, Ms Vibha Coburn, said it has remained consistent in the pricing of spreads on Sibor-linked packages.
Its range of spreads is still between 0.8 percentage point and 1.25 percentage points, 'depending on the extent of the customer's relationship with the bank and the type of home loan package', she added.
Rising spreads will affect a growing number of borrowers as Sibor-linked loans have become increasingly popular after banks introduced them about two years ago.
One reason for their popularity is their transparency when compared to loans pegged to banks' own board rates.
However, although new loan applicants will feel the pinch of the higher rates, home buyers who locked into the more competitive Sibor-pegged mortgages last year are seeing their monthly instalments fall steeply in line with the nosediving Sibor.
Loans pegged to the Singapore dollar Swap Offer Rate (SOR) - another popular benchmark interest rate - have also been hit by the increasing spreads.
OCBC Bank is now charging SOR plus 1.75 points for its home loan, compared to plus 1.25 points just two months ago, according to a news report last December. This means its rate has increased from 2.25 per cent to 2.43 per cent.
Banks said they have raised their spreads because the credit crunch has made lending more expensive and riskier.
'Unlike the period of robust property markets in 2006 and early 2007, banks now have to contend with higher capital costs and increased credit risks, given the current financial turmoil and economic crisis,' said Mr Gregory Chan, OCBC's head of consumer secured lending.
Mr Dennis Ng from mortgage broker www.HousingLoanSG.com (http://www.HousingLoanSG.com) agreed: 'Property values have fallen, so default risk has definitely gone up. It's natural for banks to increase the interest margin to cater for this higher risk of lending.'
The higher margins are also being introduced because banks are seeing fewer home loan applications as the property market softens.
'If banks reduce rates, they face not only a decline in loans growth but also a decline in margins, which could affect them quite badly,' said Mr Ng. 'So they may increase their margins to make sure revenue doesn't drop that much.'
No update was available from two other banks here that offer Sibor- or SOR-linked home loans: Standard Chartered Bank could not respond by press-time while United Overseas Bank declined to comment.
Singapore property articles during the 08/09 global recession.
Property investment sales plummet 98%
Buyers and sellers are far apart in price expectations, says CBRE.
The Straits Times (http://www.straitstimes.com/) - March 25, 2009
By: Joyce Teo
PROPERTY investment sales in Singapore have fallen off the cliff since the start of the year and could slip to levels not seen since the Asian financial crisis.
According to the latest figures from CB Richard Ellis (CBRE), sales so far this year total $184.6 million, down 98 per cent on the same period a year ago and 56.4 per cent lower than the last quarter of 2008.
For the full year, total investment sales could plummet to levels not seen for over 10 years, with buyers and sellers locked in a stalemate and far apart in terms of price expectations, the consultancy warned yesterday.
The only quarters that saw lower investment sales were the first quarter of 1998 - when they were just $49.28 million - and the third quarter of that same year - when they hit $110.62 million. So far this year, the market has witnessed isolated individual deals but there have been no public sales or collective sales.
Residential sector sales accounted for 51.5 per cent of total sales during the period in question.
Apart from $18.2 million worth of deals for three good-class bungalows, Fragrance Properties bought a freehold Pasir Panjang site for $25 million, with plans to develop it into a residential apartment building. CBRE forecasts that such development site sales will be rare this year because most developers are concentrating on their existing projects and are not looking for new sites.
There have been no minimum bid applications from developers for any of the Government land sale sites, it added.
In the commercial market, sales total $77.3 million so far this quarter, with the only major sale being the $35.8 million, or about $900 psf, deal for Le Mercier House in Mohamed Sultan Road.
There was only one transaction in the industrial sector - a Loyang Crescent site that sold for $6.2 million, or $74 psf.
The report suggests that total investment sales for this year might revisit 1998 levels when the total annual quantum was $1.35 billion.
'The lack of volume will continue to feature until such time when price expectations between buyers and sellers meet,' CBRE stated.
Real estate investment trusts are unlikely to make many new acquisitions this year as dividend yields have increased significantly and it would be extremely challenging to make purchases that are yield accretive.
Singapore property articles during the 08/09 global recession.
Mortgage payments worry Singaporeans
Job security anxieties remain the main reason.
The Business Times (http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/) - March 30, 2009
By: Siow Li Sen
A MAJORITY of Singaporeans worry about their ability to pay their mortgages, a survey by Zurich International Life (ZIL) showed.
'I wonder about the result if the survey is done now,' said Andy Robinson, ZIL Asia regional director in a recent BT interview. Singapore is experiencing its worst downturn ever with some forecasting that the economy could shrink as much as 8-10 per cent this year.
Seventy per cent of Singaporeans in the November survey were confident in their ability to save adequately while 60 per cent worry about their ability to pay mortgages. Mr Robinson thinks the Central Provident Fund mandatory contributions accounts for the optimism on savings while job security anxieties are keeping Singaporeans awake over their mortgages.
The survey which involved 212 Singaporeans and expatriates with a minimum monthly income of $4,000 revealed a general low level of confidence in economic recovery. Ninety per cent of expatriates are making changes in the allocation of their wealth, with more going to savings. Eighty two per cent of expatriates report a reduction in disposable income which warranted 62 per cent feeling the need for a change in their lifestyle.
'Part of that is buying less property,' said Mr Robinson referring to the changes in allocation of wealth by expatriates. Foreigners had been big buyers of high-end properties in the past five years. And over the past five years, more and more expatriates have increasingly switched to local terms from expensive expatriate packages, he added.
The survey also showed that priority of saving or investing remains at the top of the list of those asked. ZIL prepares two research reports a year asking Singaporeans and expatriates about their attitudes to financial planning and the correlation between their financial and lifestyle behaviour.
Singapore property articles during the 08/09 global recession.
New risks emerge for property companies
Credit crunch, price uncertainty affecting firms, says E&Y.
The Business Times (http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/) - April 1, 2009
By: Arthur Sim
(SINGAPORE) Real estate companies face new and growing risks amid the downturn in the world economy, says Ernst & Young (E&Y).
'The credit crunch, fluctuations in global economies and resultant pricing uncertainty are affecting real estate companies globally, including those in Singapore,' says E&Y Singapore's assurance partner and market leader for real estate Liew Choon Wai.
Many local developers have overseas portfolios, including in emerging markets, and a major concern is the economic vulnerability of these markets and possible changes to local regulations as a result, he says.
Another source of potential concern is the real estate investment trust (Reit) sector. 'Should the economic downturn be prolonged or worsen, we expect some form of consolidation in this sector, especially with its refinancing needs and the continuing pressure on rents.'
As for residential property, E&Y continues to see a 'rebalancing of selling prices and judicious timing of property launches', Mr Liew says.
E&Y's 2009 real estate business risk report itemises the top 10 risks faced by the industry as ranked by leading analysts.
The greatest concern is continued uncertainty and the impact of the credit crunch. As E&Y points out, the real estate sector has felt tighter credit conditions perhaps more than any other industry.
Restrictions on availability of credit and the short-term inability to deploy capital at acceptable levels of return have 'paralysed' the industry's transactions sector, says E&Y's global infrastructure and construction leader Michael Lucki.
'The only lending today is on deals with 50 per cent loan to value and at rates 200 to 400 basis points higher than six months ago, whereas towards the end of 2007 most loans were at 80-90 per cent loan to value,' he says.
But some lenders may be on the lookout to move real estate related assets off their books fast, paving the way for forward-thinking companies to develop strategies to take advantage of distressed assets and debt situations.
Besides volatility and a lack of credit, other risks for the real estate sector seen by E&Y are: the impact of ageing or inadequate infrastructure; the worldwide war for talent; changing demographics; the inability to find and exploit global and non-traditional opportunities; pricing uncertainty; the green revolution, sustainability and climate change; and volatile energy costs.
Still, E&Y's global and Americas real estate leader Howard Roth still believes there is a lot of capital on the sidelines waiting to take advantage of distressed real estate opportunities when the time is right.
'A structured, comprehensive due diligence programme will be more important than ever as buyers and sellers evaluate their opportunities,' he says.
phantom_opera
28-08-12, 15:48
Mr B's gang gone viral again ... from 1 thread spreading to another
Just received sms. Looks like business going down indeed:
Dear owner,
Is your property lease ending soon?
Don't leave it vacant! Let me do the marketing for you! I'll ensure a suitable tenant of your choice within a shortest amount of time. No need for any exclusive signing. Give me a call and see how hassle free it is for you!
Pls call me @ xxx for non-obligation discussion.
yyy
Dwg
Please don't price drop so soon, I have not saved enough vitamin M for another unit yet... :o
Bro azeo you intend to sell one of your units?
Bro azeo you intend to sell one of your units?
Dunno leh.... :beats-me-man:
Property is meant to be bought not sold!!! lol
Property is meant to be bought not sold!!! lol
No wonder SELETAR airbase.. till now still hold tight tight to his own property..
He really have confident in the property market without worrying whether it will drop 50% or even 80% by 2015.. :cheers5:
For those with debts.. no worry.. SELETAR airbase is encouraging you.. one day you will also finish you mortgage & will be same like him.. happy & carefree..
unlike rental.. pay forever also never ending one.. :D
I've been debt-free the last 6 years when I paid off my property loan, and it feels great. Life has been happy and carefree with zero debt and lots of cash.
phantom_opera
28-08-12, 20:06
Then why mr seletar still come to this property forum pasting bad news? By right holding a lot of cash, debt free, means worry free? :p
Worry about children not able to buy properties? Worry about shrinking purchasing power of cash?
i dunno who is who or what is what but read the articles really KOK stand...:D
Then why mr seletar still come to this property forum pasting bad news? By right holding a lot of cash, debt free, means worry free? :p
Worry about children not able to buy properties? Worry about shrinking purchasing power of cash?
Someone ever said this..
Low interest rate.. benefit on borrower.. pain on saver..
So even SELETAR airbase keep saying he is cash rich.. in the end.. lan lan also need to do "cut & paste" lor..
Anyway, he is also another "cut & paste" expert.. but when comes to predictions.. CANNOT MAKE IT that's all.. :D
Yes you are right.
To make money, lots of them, you need to look forward and predict what is ahead accurately, not look backwards. Everytime the cycle will appear differently. If not, everyone here will be billionaires! :p
Someone ever said this..
Low interest rate.. benefit on borrower.. pain on saver..
So even SELETAR airbase keep saying he is cash rich.. in the end.. lan lan also need to do "cut & paste" lor..
Anyway, he is also another "cut & paste" expert.. but when comes to predictions.. CANNOT MAKE IT that's all.. :D
ikan bilis
28-08-12, 20:53
alamak !!.. :beats-me-man:
- already got one thread cut-and-paste all the latest bad news for about a year
- now got another thread cut-and-paste 2008/9 old bad news
- very soon another guy will come in cut-and-paste 2002/3/4 SARS & Iraq/Afghan wars news...
:sleep:
So the correct time to buy is when all the articles from the newspaper paint a doomsday picture and all your friends and relatives kena pay cut or retrenched. So while you are struggling to find a new job and feed your family, take time off and go buy a new property.
:D
ikan bilis
28-08-12, 21:00
So the correct time to buy is when all the articles from the newspaper paint a doomsday picture and all your friends and relatives kena pay cut or retrenched. So while you are struggling to find a new job and feed your family, take time off and go buy a new property.
:D
1. buy with ca$h only arh ??.... 2. after that still got left over ca$h to feed family or not ??... :scared-2:
History is good. + we always hear base on hindsight. So we can learn and prepare when the wprst come, we can recongise and sieze the opportunity..
Why? whyyyy? S n B all posted debt-free, lots of cash, live very happy. Hur hur? Same Person?
Rental contracts and values up n uppp
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8434/7875003300_71ac496aad_k.jpg
Looks like alot of people sold their homes and renting while waiting for the crash.
:beats-me-man:
phantom_opera
28-08-12, 21:52
Looks like alot of people sold their homes and renting while waiting for the crash.
:beats-me-man:
how u know? renting can be from genuine demand from SPRs, EPs or foreigners right?
all I can deduce is vacancy rate has been stable for last 3 quarters and rental contracts has been steadily increase. Anyhow, doomsayers can always lay claim world economy buay tong gonna die already..
kskong2000
28-08-12, 22:04
2 yrs ago, there are few of my friends who really sell their property (2 of them even sell landed property) by saying that property price is reaching the peak soon and rent a place for temporary stay. Not sure they feel the pain or not by looking at the current property price. I am so tempted to cash out a bit from my current 1 to buy another unit... really in dilemma and everyday asking myself whether the next cycle is coming or not..cash left in bank with 1% interest while seeing 4 - 5% inflation rate...property price at all time high..really continue to increase??
Looks like alot of people sold their homes and renting while waiting for the crash.
:beats-me-man:
alamak !!.. :beats-me-man:
- already got one thread cut-and-paste all the latest bad news for about a year
- now got another thread cut-and-paste 2008/9 old bad news
- very soon another guy will come in cut-and-paste 2002/3/4 SARS & Iraq/Afghan wars news...
:sleep:
MISSED THE BOAT EXPERT cum YOUNG KOK cum INEXPERIENCE SMARIAN started one in Aug-2008..
But too bad.. gonna close shop soon.. after talked BIG BIG for 4-yrs! :D
http://www.sg-house.com/classifieds/buy-and-sell-private-apartment-condominium/1243648-price-decreasing-for-singapore-property.html
MISSED THE BOAT EXPERT cum TWIST & TURN.. cum DIVERT ATTENTION EXPERT DAVID LIM (aka MR B) started another thread in Oct 2010..
But too bad.. ".. coming down fast" talked from Greece to US to Spain to China to HK... go one round the world.. end up still CANNOT MAKE IT.. even SELETAR airbase he himself also tried talked around the world also gave up.. & now started his own thread with his new idea liao.. :D
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=12285
NB!! MISSED THE BOAT EXPERT SELETAR airbase (aka MR B).. Your still act blur try to predict again??!!
Over at MR B's Useless thread you said pty price will crash "next month" since few months ago.. Crash till now no news.. End up act blur create your own thread hah!!:doh:
hahaha...you are really the B hunter....:D
So the correct time to buy is when all the articles from the newspaper paint a doomsday picture and all your friends and relatives kena pay cut or retrenched. So while you are struggling to find a new job and feed your family, take time off and go buy a new property.
:D
That's how the rich get richer, they can afford to capitalise on these opportunities during bad times when valuations are cheap, and profit greatly from these investments when the economy recovers and doing well again.
MISSED THE BOAT EXPERT cum YOUNG KOK cum INEXPERIENCE SMARIAN started one in Aug-2008..
But too bad.. gonna close shop soon.. after talked BIG BIG for 4-yrs! :D
http://www.sg-house.com/classifieds/buy-and-sell-private-apartment-condominium/1243648-price-decreasing-for-singapore-property.html
MISSED THE BOAT EXPERT cum TWIST & TURN.. cum DIVERT ATTENTION EXPERT DAVID LIM (aka MR B) started another thread in Oct 2010..
But too bad.. ".. coming down fast" talked from Greece to US to Spain to China to HK... go one round the world.. end up still CANNOT MAKE IT.. even SELETAR airbase he himself also tried talked around the world also gave up.. & now started his own thread with his new idea liao.. :D
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=12285
Check it out, seletar and basically always take turn log in similar pattern.. even posting as well, debt free, live damn happy, lots of cash
http://forums.condosingapore.com/member.php?u=204033
http://forums.condosingapore.com/member.php?u=197898
At least try to be more convincing a bit lar, log in via both accounts even if dun have 2 comps, nowadays mobile phones with internet damn common, even if anti-apple. I can only atest smarian is a hardcore B-supporter
2 yrs ago, there are few of my friends who really sell their property (2 of them even sell landed property) by saying that property price is reaching the peak soon and rent a place for temporary stay. Not sure they feel the pain or not by looking at the current property price. I am so tempted to cash out a bit from my current 1 to buy another unit... really in dilemma and everyday asking myself whether the next cycle is coming or not..cash left in bank with 1% interest while seeing 4 - 5% inflation rate...property price at all time high..really continue to increase??
How's life in Mezzo? :o
new2mondrian
29-08-12, 00:13
I think there is no harm hearing both sides of the story, as long as each side's perspectives are well substantiated and constructively articulated.
Having said that, let me also offer my one cent worth of perspective. Historical behaviour is no indication of future responses. Economic data is but, at the end of the day, comprising of hard data. There are many ways to read the same data, and different conclusions drawn from it. Human behaviour, however, does not always conform to hard data, which makes market irrational. Game theorists would postulate that, humans having experienced the last recession, would draw some insights and experiences and therefore behave differently should conditions mirror the last downturn. How the next downturn, when and if it hits us, is also anyone's guess.
I recalled there were tonnes of forumers having significant dry powder looking for firesales in the 09 financial crisis. However, the firesales remained few and far between. Would there be any this time round, especially in view of the huge liquidity sloshing ard remains to be seen. :)
Slow day in the office today, business has been slowing down. More free time, thought I post some articles during the 08/09 global recession to show how bad the property market was heading before being rescued by QEs from major economies. Could be a useful reference if a new global recession hits us, history may repeat itself. Moreover the fall could be greater in a new global recession as Singapore's property prices and supply are now much greater than in 2008.
To understand how bad Singapore's economy was heading in the 08/09 global recession, please watch this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ie9SzMSkq5k and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DF91NOnYEXU&feature=relmfu. The PAP Govt was forecasting 9% contraction in 2009 for Singapore's economy, a long term recession and high unemployment. Fortunately Singapore was saved from the severe recession by FED's QE, ECB's LTRO and China's huge stimulus. But these central banks have already used most of their bullets in the last global recession and more QE increases debt which does not solve their fundamental economic problem of too much debt.
Problem is bigger doesnt mean crisis will be deeper because big problem will bring bigger QE unless a war breakout.
I think there is no harm hearing both sides of the story, as long as each side's perspectives are well substantiated and constructively articulated.
Having said that, let me also offer my one cent worth of perspective. Historical behaviour is no indication of future responses. Economic data is but, at the end of the day, comprising of hard data. There are many ways to read the same data, and different conclusions drawn from it. Human behaviour, however, does not always conform to hard data, which makes market irrational. Game theorists would postulate that, humans having experienced the last recession, would draw some insights and experiences and therefore behave differently should conditions mirror the last downturn. How the next downturn, when and if it hits us, is also anyone's guess.
I recalled there were tonnes of forumers having significant dry powder looking for firesales in the 09 financial crisis. However, the firesales remained few and far between. Would there be any this time round, especially in view of the huge liquidity sloshing ard remains to be seen. :)
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8006/6990032222_df403f6a3a_b.jpg
Drawing from past lessons, again looking at hardcore past stats, even during recession, rental contracts still doing ok [at most reduce asking price there is still demand], vacancy rate is still rather stable to the max, vacancy stocks actually reduce.. It is just these weak hands [those whose condo are left vacant], those small group who tio retrench, or those shit in pants sell b4 top at breakeven[or for a small profit] from their purchase in 05/06 benefit the new owners who bot at these so called "firesale" rates
Singapore property market's unprofitable deals
These days, everyone in Singapore seems to want to invest in properties. It is not surprising, as anyone who had bought a property several years ago would likely be sitting on good returns right now.
While you may have probably heard stories about how some investors managed to snag good deals to make a few hundred thousand dollars worth of profits, what you do not often hear about are the losses they make. And the harsh reality is that even in a boom market, there are some property owners who made losses from their properties.
Naturally, the question on everyone’s mind is how much are the losses and what are some examples of such unprofitable transactions? To answer these questions, my company’s research team went through some of the past property transaction data and uncovered some interesting findings. I will be sharing 2 of the more interesting findings in this article.
How many unprofitable transactions were there from 2009 to 2011?
We all recalled that the Singapore property market recovered during 2009 to 2011. However, during that phase of market recovery, there were about 106 unprofitable transactions. Of the 106, there were 10 units that sustained a loss of at least $1million.
The top two most unprofitable transactions saw losses amounting to $5.4million and $3.1million for detached houses at Cove Drive and Paradise Island respectively.
What is the average holding duration of unprofitable deals?
On average, the unprofitable transactions were held for about 9 months while the profitable transactions were held for 1 year 3 months. In other words, profitable transactions were held for slightly longer than unprofitable deals; in this case – about 6 months longer. This trait of unprofitable deals is consistent for all the research that we have done using different sample sizes (i.e. using data from 2003 to 2008).
Intuitively, we expect profitable transactions to have a longer holding period, as the owners are able to wait until an attractive offer comes along. In comparison, the unprofitable transactions tend to have shorter holding period as the owners could already be in some form of financial difficulty and had to quickly liquidate the property.
Conclusion
To conclude, my purpose of highlighting unprofitable transactions is to offer a more balanced view and to temper expectations some investors may have when it comes to property investing. There is no such thing as a “sure-win” investment, and even something like property has risks and some unlucky investors have lost money before. More important, it is to let investors be aware of that fact that even n a booming market, there are unprofitable deals.
However, to put things into perspective, there were a total of 65,536 residential caveats lodged from 2009 to 2011. Of these, 7,920 units were bought and flipped within the 3 years time horizon. Considering that only 106 made losses, the percentage of profitable transactions works out to be about 98.60%. It is important to note that such a good showing was due to the recovering market, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
As the global economic situation becomes more uncertain, the number of unprofitable deals would potentially increase. However, as long as you do not pay peak prices for your unit, you will stand a good chance of not adding to the unprofitable deal statistics.
Source: http://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/news/these-3-charts-show-economic-gloom-boosting-rental-demand
These 3 charts show economic gloom is boosting rental demand
Average rents for landed homes reached historical high of $2.81 psf; Imagine how much more for non-landed.
According to Savills Consultancy & Research, leasing volume leapt 11% m-o-m to 4717 leases in July 2012.
The number of leasing transactions rose 11% m-o-m for both non-landed and landed homes, showing that demand was equally strong for both segments, it said.On a y-o-y basis, total leasing volume fell marginally by 0.7%, almost matching the level seen last year.
For the first seven months of this year, the total transaction value reach 27,932 units, 5% higher y-o-y.
http://sbr.com.sg/sites/default/files/covers/image003.jpg
Median rents, meanwhile, reached historical highs for both landed ($2.81 psf pm) and non-land homes ($3.60 psf pm).
On a y-o-y basis, median rents for landed homes rose 2% while non-landed homes rose 7%.
http://sbr.com.sg/sites/default/files/covers/image002.png
The total transaction value (S$24.5 million) has reached a historical high in July. On a y-o-y basis, Savills reckons that July’s transaction value rose 0.5%. For the first seven months of this year, the total transaction value reached $136.98 million, 8% higher than the $126.44 million recorded a year ago.
http://sbr.com.sg/sites/default/files/covers/image004.jpg
" Although new incoming expatriates appear to have more constrained rental budgets these days, we would nevertheless expect rents, as measured on the $psf basis to increase as the new incomers lean towards the smaller format homes or landed properties where the absolute quantum paid is lower," said Savills analyst Alan Cheong.
According to Cheong, traditionally, July has been a seasonal peak for the rental market. Moving forward, he expects the number of leasing transactions to drop over July’s numbers, but nonetheless, when measured on a year-to-year basis, would at least hold firm or even sporadically rise for a month or two.
"Increasingly, because of the still dire Euro Zone situation, we would expect the number of new leases to stay high and even exceed 2011’s numbers. However, the rental quantum payable is expected to fall. At the moment, we are not yet witnessing the completion of the bulk of small format homes sold from 2010 onwards, and this has the effect of keeping the rental indices up. However, once more gets completed from 2013 and if the Euro Zone situation does not improve, rents may see an inflexion point," he said.
FH/999LH 1/2 bedders near MRT are still kings.
FH/999LH 1/2 bedders near MRT are still kings.
FH ok. Can stretch to 50 years loan to minimize monthly outlay.
Going forward, think it's hard to make money from rental... Oversupplied and under-demand(singles buy HDB), especially in OCR.
History is good. + we always hear base on hindsight. So we can learn and prepare when the wprst come, we can recongise and sieze the opportunity..
My sentiments exactly.
Check it out, seletar and basically always take turn log in similar pattern.. even posting as well, debt free, live damn happy, lots of cash
http://forums.condosingapore.com/member.php?u=204033
http://forums.condosingapore.com/member.php?u=197898
At least try to be more convincing a bit lar, log in via both accounts even if dun have 2 comps, nowadays mobile phones with internet damn common, even if anti-apple. I can only atest smarian is a hardcore B-supporter
That's why I've repeated 100x..
MISSED THE BOAT EXPERT MR B (aka SELETAR airbase).. over at MR B's thread..
Similarly, MISSED THE BOAT EXPERT DAVID LIM (aka MR B) over at sghouse YOUNG KOK SMARIAN's thread.. :D
http://www.sg-house.com/classifieds/buy-and-sell-private-apartment-condominium/1243648-price-decreasing-for-singapore-property-284.html
That's why I've repeated 100x..
MISSED THE BOAT EXPERT MR B (aka SELETAR airbase).. over at MR B's thread..
Similarly, MISSED THE BOAT EXPERT DAVID LIM (aka MR B) over at sghouse YOUNG KOK SMARIAN's thread.. :D
http://www.sg-house.com/classifieds/buy-and-sell-private-apartment-condominium/1243648-price-decreasing-for-singapore-property-284.html
We all know you are not happy with these people and your reason is understandable. There is not need to keep repeating the same thing. We have heard you.
FH/999LH 1/2 bedders near MRT are still kings.
FH/999LH 1/2 bedders near LRT or circle line can be queens not har? :D
We all know you are not happy with these people and your reason is understandable. There is not need to keep repeating the same thing. We have heard you.
Thanks for your understanding..
OK! I will convey your message to MISSED THE BOAT EXPERT MR B (aka SELETAR airbase) who repeated 1000x "whatever.. blah blah blah"
Maybe you have forgotten to inform him (or you totally ignore what he say).. or "overlooked".. but is ok!! :D
whatever....spore property will crash.....they can shout whatever price they want to sell.....stop buying.......
spore property will down >50% before 2015, stop buying property & property is on it's way down.....
Thanks for your understanding..
OK! I will convey your message to MISSED THE BOAT EXPERT MR B (aka SELETAR airbase) who repeated 1000x "whatever.. blah blah blah"
Maybe you have forgotten to inform him (or you totally ignore what he say).. or "overlooked".. but is ok!! :D
At the very least, he always has something refreshing to inform us. Maybe you should do likekwise.
Please be informed that I am not basically.
Please be informed that I am not basically.
Do not let that bother you.
It is absurd to suggest that anyone who is not negative toward Mr B is B himself.
I do enjoy your postings too.
Looks like Singapore is undergoing an all out construction frenzy. Everywhere you turn, you will see some kind of construction. If all goes well it will bring us to new heights. :D
...if not, it will be an unprecedented disaster. :scared-3:
Looks like Singapore is undergoing an all out construction frenzy. Everywhere you turn, you will see some kind of construction. If all goes well it will bring us to new heights. :D
...if not, it will be an unprecedented disaster. :scared-3:
do you think 1 day our poplation will hit 8m? can the infrastructure take it?
At the very least, he always has something refreshing to inform us. Maybe you should do likekwise.
Nothing to be refreshing.. but TWIST & TURN cum DIVERT ATTENTION alot..
Right from the start of your post over at MISSED THE BOAT EXPERT MR B's thread.. I already know your are just "one sided".. I know.. I already knew it.. :D
My predictions is the most accurate..
By now you should know why I totally ignored you over at MISSED THE BOAT EXPERT cum TWIST & TURN.. cum DIVERT EXPERT MR B's thread.. MR B (aka Leeds).. :D
Please be informed that I am not basically.
Basically, many ppl knew it long ago..
Cos unlike MR B who sold-off everything & go into rental.. you rather be a FOOLS.. keep it & hold tight tight to your property..
You damn smart.. knowing property is to be bought & not sold!! :eek:
No wonder you keep encouraging ppl to paid off their property loan.. and thereafter.. life will be happy and carefree..
On behalf of all properties owners.. I thank you for the advice!! :D
I've been debt-free the last 6 years when I paid off my property loan, and it feels great. Life has been happy and carefree with zero debt and lots of cash.
tons in strait times classified & propertyguru....go & ask for it, you will get, 10-20%...
I sold what I need to...only fools still keep now....in next 1-2 yrs, you will know....
My predictions is the most accurate..
By now you should know why I totally ignored you over at MISSED THE BOAT EXPERT cum TWIST & TURN.. cum DIVERT EXPERT MR B's thread.. MR B (aka Leeds)..
:D
Sad! Will not response to you anymore.
Jonathan0503
29-08-12, 23:06
At the very least, he always has something refreshing to inform us. Maybe you should do likekwise.
But his posts always repeat property price down 50% by 2015.
We also heard him loud and clear. Why didn't you ask him not to keep repeating?
We all know you are not happy with these people and your reason is understandable. There is not need to keep repeating the same thing. We have heard you.
Repeat?? U referring to that smarian or seletar or leads or B...:D
Repeat?? U referring to that smarian or seletar or leeds or B...:D
Right from the start I already knew that they are from the same boat... Oh I mean.. MISSED THE BOAT expert..:D
Basically, many ppl knew it long ago..
Cos unlike MR B who sold-off everything & go into rental.. you rather be a FOOLS.. keep it & hold tight tight to your property..
You damn smart.. knowing property is to be bought & not sold!! :eek:
No wonder you keep encouraging ppl to paid off their property loan.. and thereafter.. life will be happy and carefree..
On behalf of all properties owners.. I thank you for the advice!! :D
there are hardcore rental folks per se as the mindset maybe tune towards other better offerings out there..
the message has been consistent as well. From 2008 till now for property to go down.
while I err on the cauious side, I do feel that everyone has different reasons.
I do know of a typical case of a fren.
in 08 when I choing to buy 1. He say siao. Now world wide recession. Job not stable. Sure fall some more.
so instead of property, buy he bought lehmen bro when it drop to 12 or 15 or so. Then I ask him he hosay boh ?
he use the same phrase everyone use back then.too big to fail. The US govt will support one. So old brand name.
what happen then was even more amazing, drop to I think 5 or 6. He buy some more in the hope that it will raiise. I ask again, bro, this ship looks like sinking, you buy some more?
he just smile and say we shall see who right.
the rest as they say is history.
but then citi also slide n recover when it went to 3 dollars.
so I have learn that no 2 situation are the same n while one mirror the other, the outcome maybe different.
but then citi also slide n recover when it went to 3 dollars.
so I have learn that no 2 situation are the same n while one mirror the other, the outcome maybe different.
It was a great time to buy US stocks after the 08 crash, I bought citi stocks at under US$3 at the time when temasek sold at a huge loss. The stock went up over 900% before I sold it. Hope your friend bought US stocks during that time and sold at huge profit.
phantom_opera
30-08-12, 12:09
It was a great time to buy US stocks after the 08 crash, I bought citi stocks at under US$3 at the time when temasek sold at a huge loss. The stock went up over 900% before I sold it. Hope your friend bought US stocks during that time and sold at huge profit.
Don't bullshit lah ... Citibank share had a reverse split ,,, current price of USD29.91 is the same as 2.99 only
the lowest price was $1.x and it never reach $6 how to have 900% return??
of course you will say that your leverage 20X by having a stock loan blah blah blah ... I trust u just like I trust Ah B to short his EURUSD to buy his McDonald meals :p
I sold the stock early this year at slightly over USD40 and I never take loans to buy stock. And I don't invest in Forex, too risky.
phantom_opera
30-08-12, 12:31
I sold the stock early this year at slightly over USD40 and I never take loans to buy stock. And I don't invest in Forex, too risky.
u know what is reverse split or not?? :doh:
GIC should hire you :banghead:
u know what is reverse split or not?? :doh:
GIC should hire you :banghead:
Another TWIST & TURN cum DIVERT ATTENTION EXPERT out there??? :scared-1: :scared-1: :scared-1:
:D
u know what is reverse split or not?? :doh:
GIC should hire you :banghead:
Yes I lost some shares, but I make a profit. What has GIC got to do with this ?
Sad! Will not response to you anymore.
Someone has missed the boat on Luxus Hills, now spends his time over the many months blaming and attacking others on the internet it make himself feel better. Sad indeed.
i dunno who is who or what is what but read the articles really KOK stand...:D
nice avartar. Is that EG9
nice avartar. Is that EG9
Ek4.....:cool-punk-headbange
I sold the stock early this year at slightly over USD40 and I never take loans to buy stock. And I don't invest in Forex, too risky.
wat $40??? it was $40 coz it reverse split. if u bought before its no more than $3+. unless ur stocks can clone themselves.
Secretly, deep down inside, a lot of us are hoping that the period of 2008 and 2009 will return because we have missed some boats at those times... but we are also fearful that the current boat that we are on will sink... guess depends on whether can jump from a small boat to a bigger boat when the time comes.
Secretly, deep down inside, a lot of us are hoping that the period of 2008 and 2009 will return because we have missed some boats at those times... but we are also fearful that the current boat that we are on will sink... guess depends on whether can jump from a small boat to a bigger boat when the time comes.
prevously was banks n AIG in trouble. Now is country in trouble. It started with the idea of generating spends via printing money.
then it became a case of loaning some money to see us thru the next day. But looking at things, if don't loan sure die. Loan at least got hope.
don't know about you but the sinking ship seems quite bad if it happens. + this is the usual period where stocks plunge. So I would thunk that B man will be right for once in 50 years or was that 5 years. Whatever. Just hope that its a touch n go situation n everything is back to normal.
buttercarp
12-09-12, 08:32
Secretly, deep down inside, a lot of us are hoping that the period of 2008 and 2009 will return because we have missed some boats at those times... but we are also fearful that the current boat that we are on will sink... guess depends on whether can jump from a small boat to a bigger boat when the time comes.
I must admit I am one of those.
I will buy with a vengence should it happen.
However, it can be depressing to see others depressed.
And we won't know how things will proceed.
As for now, I am happy as it is.
I must admit I am one of those.
I will buy with a vengence should it happen.
However, it can be depressing to see others depressed.
And we won't know how things will proceed.
As for now, I am happy as it is.
mind sharing what's on yr radar?
mine is a reasonable price ccr about 1200 sqft n a new car.
buttercarp
12-09-12, 08:51
mind sharing what's on yr radar?
mine is a reasonable price ccr about 1200 sqft n a new car.
If recession, I will keep my exisiting place, shift into my new place once it TOP , then I will get a 2 BR OCR 99 LH.
If COE drops, I will definitely get the VW scirrocco, green color one.
It is really quite sad when I see people 'wishing' for recession just so they can pick up a property, car etc
Having been through a few cycles, it is definitely no fun especially when friends and loved ones are affected. It is very easy now to think that you will not be one of those affected but I have seen too many overconfident friends fall by the wayside and even now are slowly trying to get their life back together.
Talk to some of your friends in US /Europe who have had their homes foreclosed and see whether they are having a fun time picking up cheap assets.
So, my dear fellow forumers, think hard about what you wish for....
It is really quite sad when I see people 'wishing' for recession just so they can pick up a property, car etc
Having been through a few cycles, it is definitely no fun especially when friends and loved ones are affected. It is very easy now to think that you will not be one of those affected but I have seen too many overconfident friends fall by the wayside and even now are slowly trying to get their life back together.
Talk to some of your friends in US /Europe who have had their homes foreclosed and see whether they are having a fun time picking up cheap assets.
So, my dear fellow forumers, think hard about what you wish for....
Nah it's just normal investor's mentality. One man's loss is another man's gain. Sorry but I, too, am waiting for the next recession. It will come whether you wish for it or not.
only those who've missed the boat are crying for one. as much as they claim that they will strike when the recession hits, the same group of people will be standing at the sideline, not daring to take the plunge for fear that prices will drop further.
sooner than we know it, they miss the boat AGAIN cos' no one can predict when the rebound will occur.
It is really quite sad when I see people 'wishing' for recession just so they can pick up a property, car etc
Having been through a few cycles, it is definitely no fun especially when friends and loved ones are affected. It is very easy now to think that you will not be one of those affected but I have seen too many overconfident friends fall by the wayside and even now are slowly trying to get their life back together.
So, my dear fellow forumers, think hard about what you wish for....
I experienced the following :
1. Pan-E - My FIL and the entire family were in terrible mood. I sold off the clob shares and all shares perhaps just months before the crash. I was happy but looking at my FIL, it was terrible. No one dare to talk at that time. Looking around my friends...not a single one was happy.
2. 1997 : again I did not have any exposure. I sold before the crash.
3. Year 2000 : dot com, my spouse was retrenched and I became sole bread winner. Not really an issue but the mood in the family was terribly bad. And we lived without a maid for 3 years.
4. SAR 2003 : a close friend went bankrupt. We had a JV with them, we went into depth financial crisis.
4. Lehman : I was very badly hit with properties on hand. Worried my girl might be retrenched.
So please, I do not want any financial crisis. Property price high ok as we have a healthy economy and strong govt and most important....Have a job.
buttercarp
12-09-12, 09:56
It is really quite sad when I see people 'wishing' for recession just so they can pick up a property, car etc
Having been through a few cycles, it is definitely no fun especially when friends and loved ones are affected. It is very easy now to think that you will not be one of those affected but I have seen too many overconfident friends fall by the wayside and even now are slowly trying to get their life back together.
Talk to some of your friends in US /Europe who have had their homes foreclosed and see whether they are having a fun time picking up cheap assets.
So, my dear fellow forumers, think hard about what you wish for....
Agree with you.
Now I am happy as it is.
Both ways also ok.... I try to be at peace with the universe.
Nah it's just normal investor's mentality. One man's loss is another man's gain. Sorry but I, too, am waiting for the next recession.
Don't blame you but it is also normal investor's mentality that they will never be the ones who will be hardest hit by the recession when it comes.
I experienced the following :
1. Pan-E - My FIL and the entire family were in terrible mood. I sold off the clob shares and all shares perhaps just months before the crash. I was happy but looking at my FIL, it was terrible. No one dare to talk at that time. Looking around my friends...not a single one was happy.
2. 1997 : again I did not have any exposure. I sold before the crash.
3. Year 2000 : dot com, my spouse was retrenched and I became sole bread winner. Not really an issue but the mood in the family was terribly bad. And we lived without a maid for 3 years.
4. SAR 2003 : a close friend went bankrupt. We had a JV with them, we went into depth financial crisis.
4. Lehman : I was very badly hit with properties on hand. Worried my girl might be retrenched.
So please, I do not want any financial crisis. Property price high ok as we have a healthy economy and strong govt and most important....Have a job.
Laguna, I am younger then you... I only saw 1997 onwards in my working life. Here is what i remember - prior 1997.
condos and hdbs started going up.
govt started ECs to cater to those trapped in between.
last phase - landed started shotting up.
everybody said, Singapore so small, land is limited, so landed is the way to go.
Then came 1997 and the cards started dropping.
This time round, prices are higher. This is very much spurred from immigration. The key is when everyone starts talking about shares and you see the kopi uncle and aunties talk about shares, its time to run. We dont see this now. So I dont see us right at the pinnacle. But with US and Europe in shit, you should see flight to better horizon like asia. So funds will likely chase the "so called" better countries - Remember BRICs - the flavour in the past? You will not see properties shooting up a lot as the govt will definitely intervene.
but if europe and us really hit shit, we will not be spared. singapore main hirers are MNCs. We dont have natural resources.
So time for prudence.
Those of working age since 1997 have been against the wall a number of times...Asian Currency crisis, dot.com bust, 2001, 2003 and then 2008.
Such experiences, retrenchements etc can shape one's financial mindset.
I know I tend to 'upgrade' my things more slowly like cars, tv etc.
And savings are split into 'legs' of a table ...property, stocks, bonds and cash
I experienced the following :
1. Pan-E - My FIL and the entire family were in terrible mood. I sold off the clob shares and all shares perhaps just months before the crash. I was happy but looking at my FIL, it was terrible. No one dare to talk at that time. Looking around my friends...not a single one was happy.
2. 1997 : again I did not have any exposure. I sold before the crash.
3. Year 2000 : dot com, my spouse was retrenched and I became sole bread winner. Not really an issue but the mood in the family was terribly bad. And we lived without a maid for 3 years.
4. SAR 2003 : a close friend went bankrupt. We had a JV with them, we went into depth financial crisis.
4. Lehman : I was very badly hit with properties on hand. Worried my girl might be retrenched.
So please, I do not want any financial crisis. Property price high ok as we have a healthy economy and strong govt and most important....Have a job.
Don't blame you but it is also normal investor's mentality that they will never be the ones who will be hardest hit by the recession when it comes.
I lost much in rental in 1997-1998. But that's about all, no pain no gain. Wait for another recession to come to expand my portfolio :)
I lost much in rental in 1997-1998. But that's about all, no pain no gain. Wait for another recession to come to expand my portfolio :)
You are one of the lucky ones. Anyway, build up reserves/buffers and invest wisely....Huat big time!!!
I experienced the following :
1. Pan-E - My FIL and the entire family were in terrible mood. I sold off the clob shares and all shares perhaps just months before the crash. I was happy but looking at my FIL, it was terrible. No one dare to talk at that time. Looking around my friends...not a single one was happy.
2. 1997 : again I did not have any exposure. I sold before the crash.
3. Year 2000 : dot com, my spouse was retrenched and I became sole bread winner. Not really an issue but the mood in the family was terribly bad. And we lived without a maid for 3 years.
4. SAR 2003 : a close friend went bankrupt. We had a JV with them, we went into depth financial crisis.
4. Lehman : I was very badly hit with properties on hand. Worried my girl might be retrenched.
So please, I do not want any financial crisis. Property price high ok as we have a healthy economy and strong govt and most important....Have a job.
Thanks for sharing....I remember how bad the mood was during some of those dark days. Got badly hit by CLOB shares too. All of us can talk big now but back then, nobody dared to buy anything or invest even when we had the cash.
there are hardcore rental folks per se as the mindset maybe tune towards other better offerings out there..
the message has been consistent as well. From 2008 till now for property to go down.
while I err on the cauious side, I do feel that everyone has different reasons.
I do know of a typical case of a fren.
in 08 when I choing to buy 1. He say siao. Now world wide recession. Job not stable. Sure fall some more.
so instead of property, buy he bought lehmen bro when it drop to 12 or 15 or so. Then I ask him he hosay boh ?
he use the same phrase everyone use back then.too big to fail. The US govt will support one. So old brand name.
what happen then was even more amazing, drop to I think 5 or 6. He buy some more in the hope that it will raiise. I ask again, bro, this ship looks like sinking, you buy some more?
he just smile and say we shall see who right.
the rest as they say is history.
but then citi also slide n recover when it went to 3 dollars.
so I have learn that no 2 situation are the same n while one mirror the other, the outcome maybe different.
citi dropped below $1. briefly in trading.. i was on the computer screen hesitating whether to click the buy button. fingers trembling.. end up din. :doh: :o
LVS was another stock that went bazooka after it dropped to ard 1.40 in the depths of the crisis and adelson had to bail his own company out thru cash injections and stopping his macau devt just to concentrate on our very own marina bay sands. the rest is history with the stock hitting $60 earlier this year. and this without share consolidation.. :hell-hath-no-fury:
Thanks for sharing....I remember how bad the mood was during some of those dark days. Got badly hit by CLOB shares too. All of us can talk big now but back then, nobody dared to buy anything or invest even when we had the cash.
unless one is really really rich, most common folks will not dare to venture during the darkest days. human psychology... fear and greed dictate most of our investment impulses. with fear normally prevailing when in conflict with greed. :cheers1:
buttercarp
12-09-12, 10:51
I experienced the following :
1. Pan-E - My FIL and the entire family were in terrible mood. I sold off the clob shares and all shares perhaps just months before the crash. I was happy but looking at my FIL, it was terrible. No one dare to talk at that time. Looking around my friends...not a single one was happy.
2. 1997 : again I did not have any exposure. I sold before the crash.
3. Year 2000 : dot com, my spouse was retrenched and I became sole bread winner. Not really an issue but the mood in the family was terribly bad. And we lived without a maid for 3 years.
4. SAR 2003 : a close friend went bankrupt. We had a JV with them, we went into depth financial crisis.
4. Lehman : I was very badly hit with properties on hand. Worried my girl might be retrenched.
So please, I do not want any financial crisis. Property price high ok as we have a healthy economy and strong govt and most important....Have a job.
Wah Laguna... a roller coaster adventure.
I can't take that kind of life.
I prefer to ride tea cups and take part in lucky draw.
You are one of the lucky ones. Anyway, build up reserves/buffers and invest wisely....Huat big time!!!
I think most investors will make it. It's about holding power anyway. It's the speculators or specu-investors (borderline ones) that will be burnt, not true investors.
maybe I am a contrarian. during and after lehman crisis I was earning lots from my properties...
maybe I am a contrarian. during and after lehman crisis I was earning lots from my properties...
or rather, u are able to not let emotions cloud your judgement. congrats congrats..
or rather, u are able to not let emotions cloud your judgement. congrats congrats..
I knew nothing about finance industry and economics. I still don't. However, during those dark days I was very diligent trawling the property market day in day out for good buys. And I did strike gold a few times. Guess its great when everyone else were busy crying over spilt milk.
Selling was not easy though. And it was really by pure luck for many of them. Of course having a wide agent network and sms blasting helped.
If I were to sum it all up - two words. Grit and Guts.
citi dropped below $1. briefly in trading.. i was on the computer screen hesitating whether to click the buy button. fingers trembling.. end up din. :doh: :o
LVS was another stock that went bazooka after it dropped to ard 1.40 in the depths of the crisis and adelson had to bail his own company out thru cash injections and stopping his macau devt just to concentrate on our very own marina bay sands. the rest is history with the stock hitting $60 earlier this year. and this without share consolidation.. :hell-hath-no-fury:
I guess most who buy citi had a feel that it would rise. Some were prepared to loose 10k on a bet of sort. Some I know borrow to buy.
I only know of one guy who ran around the money changer to buy aud on the off chance that it would rise. Else LL go for mutiple holoday in australia :cheers5:
Secretly, deep down inside, a lot of us are hoping that the period of 2008 and 2009 will return because we have missed some boats at those times...
...err sorry, I dun... Why would any one want a crisis ? Even if u can buy low, (and that's assuming you have the guts when it happens) what makes u think the crisis will not last for a gd 5 or even 10 yrs ? Without recovery how do you realize your "profit" ? So you not only wish a crisis, you also wish you have the guts, and you wish a speedy recovery after you buy... You know, if investment is that easy no one will make a loss. Whoever had missed the boat missed it for a reason. And whoever made it onto the boat made it for a reason too.
Plus, during recession, the whole economy is so depressing. It's no fun at all.
...err sorry, I dun... Why would any one want a crisis ? Even if u can buy low, (and that's assuming you have the guts when it happens) what makes u think the crisis will not last for a gd 5 or even 10 yrs ? Without recovery how do you realize your "profit" ? So you not only wish a crisis, you also wish you have the guts, and you wish a speedy recovery after you buy... You know, if investment is that easy no one will make a loss. Whoever had missed the boat missed it for a reason. And whoever made it onto the boat made it for a reason too.
Plus, during recession, the whole economy is so depressing. It's no fun at all.
you right. Lesson learn from jp. From no retrenchement n the envy of many nation on innovation and high quality standard, to a so so average getting by country. They still doing ok perhaps , but no longer the benchmark. But then again where is the benchmark? Swiss, ? US? Or russia even?
after the jap went into a ressesson, they never really recovered'
...err sorry, I dun... Why would any one want a crisis ? Even if u can buy low, (and that's assuming you have the guts when it happens) what makes u think the crisis will not last for a gd 5 or even 10 yrs ? Without recovery how do you realize your "profit" ? So you not only wish a crisis, you also wish you have the guts, and you wish a speedy recovery after you buy... You know, if investment is that easy no one will make a loss. Whoever had missed the boat missed it for a reason. And whoever made it onto the boat made it for a reason too.
Plus, during recession, the whole economy is so depressing. It's no fun at all.
Agree with bro amk
When recession comes, everyone around you look down & gloomy. The company you work for will tell you cut cost here, cut cost there & rumors of retrenchment will circle around. You could be one of them potential candidate in the retrenchment list. Likewise for your wife's company. You will hear the same story from your friends. Relatives & friends doing business also complain to you that business is very bad nowadays. All shaking their heads. Share price tumbling down. Government warn of prolong recession & need measure to tide over this period.
When you hear all these bad news going around you everyday, you mind will tell you to be prudent & play safe. You really need a strong heart & steel mind to overcome all these to sign on the dotted line.
A good example our fellow Ah B who missed the boat big time & talk big big in his bear thread because he panic & sold all in 2008/09.
...err sorry, I dun... Why would any one want a crisis ? Even if u can buy low, (and that's assuming you have the guts when it happens) what makes u think the crisis will not last for a gd 5 or even 10 yrs ? Without recovery how do you realize your "profit" ? So you not only wish a crisis, you also wish you have the guts, and you wish a speedy recovery after you buy... You know, if investment is that easy no one will make a loss. Whoever had missed the boat missed it for a reason. And whoever made it onto the boat made it for a reason too.
Plus, during recession, the whole economy is so depressing. It's no fun at all.
wah very true leh.. during the last downtime, everybody scared here and there including me... went to offload 1 of my condo... now think back, aiyoh so kiasi and stupid...:doh:
wah very true leh.. during the last downtime, everybody scared here and there including me... went to offload 1 of my condo... now think back, aiyoh so kiasi and stupid...:doh:
its not call kiasi. Its call risk mitigation.
interedtingly, after you unload, did you feel that you work better n din have a worry about yr job n you tend to speak yr mind at work?
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