The next peak of HDB resale price index

[phantom_opera]

After posting immigration, income, rental information, it is time to switch from fundamental to technical analysis

HDB resale price doubled from 1993 to 1996, from 69 to 138

After breaking resistance at 138, it should double to 276 in a few more years

However, government was late in introducing CMs during 1992-1996 steep increase of property prices

Now, government has introduced so many CMs, that's why the price index is moderated, however...

[carbuncle]

however... question is will it ever crash past 200?

[phantom_opera]

first resistance will appear at 223 ... which is 61.8% Fibonacci level from 138

we are now at about 200 ... if each quarter goes up by 5-6 points, will take another 1y to hit 223, if this level is broken will take another 2y to rise to 276, 100% from 138

2015 to die for

:cheers4:

[Allthepies]

first resistance will appear at 223 ... which is 61.8% Fibonacci level from 138

we are now at about 200 ... if each quarter goes up by 5-6 points, will take another 1y to hit 223, if this level is broken will take another 2y to rise to 276, 100% from 138

2015 to die for

:cheers4:

huat ah :cheers4:

[Vincegoh]

first resistance will appear at 223 ... which is 61.8% Fibonacci level from 138

we are now at about 200 ... if each quarter goes up by 5-6 points, will take another 1y to hit 223, if this level is broken will take another 2y to rise to 276, 100% from 138

2015 to die for

:cheers4:

unfortunately linear progression is seldom reflected in reality. cannot be one way traffic forever into stratosphere. :D

[phantom_opera]

unfortunately linear progression is seldom reflected in reality. cannot be one way traffic forever into stratosphere. :D

in HDB market rental leads the resale price due to COV

median monthly rental for 5r HDB at Tampines is now 2,540,near MRT probably 2,800 to 3,000

I know Bedok South/Chai Chee far from MRT rental for 4r already reach 2.6k, 3r already hit 2.3k

Since rental approaching 3k, there will be big jump in HDB resale price again as ppl die die will buy

[AK47]

in HDB market rental leads the resale price due to COV

median monthly rental for 5r HDB at Tampines is now 2,540,near MRT probably 2,800 to 3,000

I know Bedok South/Chai Chee far from MRT rental for 4r already reach 2.6k, 3r already hit 2.3k

Since rental approaching 3k, there will be big jump in HDB resale price again as ppl die die will buy

With distortion from undersupply and CMs. Technical is probably useless.

[Vincegoh]

in HDB market rental leads the resale price due to COV

median monthly rental for 5r HDB at Tampines is now 2,540,near MRT probably 2,800 to 3,000

I know Bedok South/Chai Chee far from MRT rental for 4r already reach 2.6k, 3r already hit 2.3k

Since rental approaching 3k, there will be big jump in HDB resale price again as ppl die die will buy

i think the primary trend is up but there could be minor pullbacks in the secondary trends. sky high COV is starting to taper off so maybe will plateau and dip before resuming an uptrend.

my guess is that COV will be on a reduced trend in coming periods as valuation starts to pick up.. i.e. in the past 3rm RCR HDB valued at 400k but owner wants 450k so COV is 50k.. maybe in future valuation will be 430k and COV 30k = 460k (still 10k higher but COV looks far more appealing to new home buyers).

[phantom_opera]

Let's take a look at July BTO subscription rate, as usual, only 3 BTOs are hot, one is in Clementi but far from MRT, second is Punggol far from MRT but got canal view

4-room Clementi 4.2 (first timers) 42.7 (2nd timers)

4-room Depot Heights/Telok Belangah 2.7 (first timers) 23.2 (2nd timers)

Punggol
Waterway Cascadia
(Premium Contract)
5-room

4.1 (first timers)
23.3 (2nd timers)

how is that for improving 2nd timer chance?? All above 20 times oversubscribed and none of them is near MRT

And the Depot Height/Telok Belangah project less 1st timers why ?? Because it is so expensive for 1st timers, 4r pricing is $458,000 - $549,000

[carbuncle]

TO THIS I CAN ONLY SAY

Huat ahhHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!! to vested bros n sis

[phantom_opera]

TO THIS I CAN ONLY SAY

Huat ahhHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!! to vested bros n sis

What the government does not want to tell u is that lands near MRT that can be used for BTOs/ECs are running SUPER THIN now, DTL2/DTL3 will take too long to materialize ... meanwhile no more lands near MRT

[phantom_opera]

when Simei HDB mntly rental is more than a fresh grad starting pay, you know we have reached a milestone in rental

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listing/hdb-for-rent-107-simei-street-1-10689527


best ad ... summarize everything in a nutshell

[latour]

when Simei HDB mntly rental is more than a fresh grad starting pay, you know we have reached a milestone in rental

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listing/hdb-for-rent-107-simei-street-1-10689527


best ad ... summarize everything in a nutshell

Indeed, every HDB units in Simei is consider near MRT, Mall etc. therefore the rental is wulalar... Huat ah! and the condo rental should have been, or will eventually move up.

$3200 for 5i after negotiate maybe will be at least $3k to $3.1k, then 4A units min also $2.8k since 4rm and 5rm HDB has 3 bedrooms.

[latour]

This one for a 5i Simei HDB even better (actually pic shows same unit as the one posted before) and its $3.5k ...... Huat :scared-1:!

[phantom_opera]

“One relocation company, Orientations, said the number of expatriates opting to rent an HDB flat has gone up by 30 per cent, between 2010 and 2011. Many of them are mid-level professionals from Asia who are receiving smaller housing allowances compared to previous years. Orientations chairman Beverly Mayhew noted that the amenities in some public housing estates - such as swimming pools, transport hubs and recreational centres - make them very appealing to foreigners.”

=> so HDB near public swimming pool near MRT bestest :p

[phantom_opera]

The hottest HDB BTO for this year will be in September just besides the previous DBSS AMK

http://www101.hdb.gov.sg/hdbvsf/eampuadp.nsf/0/SA_BTO_201209/$file/AMKMAP.pdf

Lands near MRT station is getting less and less ... with Centro Residences running at 1500psf this BTO will again hit a record subscription rate

Let me guess

FT 20
ST 50

4r will be priced from 500k to 600k

[phantom_opera]

2001-2008 less than 40k
2009 9k
2010 16k
2011 25k
2012 25k
2013 20k only ??

Total BTO flats since 2001 = 95,440 ...
Total DBSS flats within the same period = 7,773 ...

So total in 12y+ is 95440 + 7773 = 103,213 ... about 8.6k per year, let's include 2013/2014 40k it should then come up to 10k per year for 14y ... it is still not matching up to number of marriages which averages about 25k per year ...may be average divorce of 6-7k per year reduce the need :p

Don't forget our SPRs grow by 350k since 2005 and new SC grows by 100k, that is about 30k new SCs going to buy BTOs and another 100k SPRs looking to rent + buy resale

With Mr Khaw being on the conservative side, it is going to end with a loud BANG for sure. Since this year BTO took 4y to build, 2016 will be the year to watch out.

Mr Khaw biggest fallacy is to average out all the ulu ulu BTOs FT subscription rate and then conclude that demand for HDB BTO is down. He is DEAD WRONG. Let's see the September AMK MRT plot ... if FT subscription rate up to 20 it actually will invalidate all his previous assumptions about weak demand.

[phantom_opera]

I am a statistics guy:

Number of Marriages (2006-2011)
23,706
23,966
24,596
26,081
24,363
27,258
Number of Divorces & Annulments (2006-2011)
6,904
7,110
7,134
7,280
7,338
7,604

[phantom_opera]

# of HDBs per town

http://i769.photobucket.com/albums/xx336/Teoalida/HDBStatistics.png

biggest is Jurong West - 70k

followed by Tampines and Bedok about 60k each .. Punggol still around 20k only

since 2009, new BTOs of 9k + 16k + 25k + 25k (2012) ... supply will start kicking in in 2013 for 2009 BTOs, 2015 / 2016 will see 50k units TOP

[carbuncle]

I orady give up on hdb long ago... never manage to get the supply / demand right it seems. n then the ministry wanna kaypo the private resi somemore. when ur own backside.. I mean backyard havent finish pulling the weeds u wanna kaypo go decorate ur neighbour front yard.

[carbuncle]

看��头蛇还蛮普�化的。。。
seems like double headed snakes are rather common afterall...

[phantom_opera]

surprisingly the highest subscription rate this July BTO is Clementi 2nd timers (44X)
both Punggol and Depot Road/Telok Belangah 2 timers subscription rate around 24X

looks like HDB 2nd timers dun know Depot/Telok Belangah is more prime than Clementi & Punggol

or they are prudent ... Mr Khaw must be happy

[kane]

surprisingly the highest subscription rate this July BTO is Clementi 2nd timers (44X)
both Punggol and Depot Road/Telok Belangah 2 timers subscription rate around 24X

looks like HDB 2nd timers dun know Depot/Telok Belangah is more prime than Clementi & Punggol

or they are prudent ... Mr Khaw must be happy

More hot than IPo. But first timers leh?

[carbuncle]

2nd timer want super super matured estate

[phantom_opera]

More hot than IPo. But first timers leh?

hottest is Punggol and Clementi, both far from MRT

I think Clementi is to stay near parents, Punggol 5r far from MRT is not cheap also man

4-Room $310,000 - $379,000
5-Room $390,000 - $485,000

but as I said ... September AMK one will be BESTEST this year, situated besides DBSS AMK and near park / MRT

[kane]

hottest is Punggol and Clementi, both far from MRT

I think Clementi is to stay near parents, Punggol 5r far from MRT is not cheap also man

4-Room $310,000 - $379,000
5-Room $390,000 - $485,000

but as I said ... September AMK one will be BESTEST this year, situated besides DBSS AMK and near park / MRT

Can't seem to access the numbers of application at hdb's website.

[phantom_opera]

first resistance will appear at 223 ... which is 61.8% Fibonacci level from 138

we are now at about 200 ... if each quarter goes up by 5-6 points, will take another 1y to hit 223, if this level is broken will take another 2y to rise to 276, 100% from 138

2015 to die for

:cheers4:

HDB’s flash estimate of the 4th Quarter 2012 Resale Price Index (RPI) is 202.9, a 2.5% increase over 3rd Quarter 2012 :D

[phantom_opera]

HDB resale price up 6.4% (subject to estimate correction) in 2012

IMO, without any further CM, Q1 2013 HDB resale price will most likely go up by at least 3%

HDB resale price index is now some 46.5% above 1997's peak and about 100% from low of SARS crisis

[mcmlxxvi]

HDB’s flash estimate of the 4th Quarter 2012 Resale Price Index (RPI) is 202.9, a 2.5% increase over 3rd Quarter 2012 :D

So how long to reach 223... 2 yrs?

[Shanhz]

HDB resale price up 6.4% (subject to estimate correction) in 2012

IMO, without any further CM, Q1 2013 HDB resale price will most likely go up by at least 3%

HDB resale price index is now some 46.5% above 1997's peak and about 100% from low of SARS crisis

should it be adjusted for inflation to compare against 1997 peak?

[phantom_opera]

should it be adjusted for inflation to compare against 1997 peak?

the tough part about inflation adjustment is which # you believe, the garmen published inflation # of course will be lower than the reality

one possible way is to take M3 growth minus GDP growth

M3 (DBU)
1997
Jan 150,098.9
2012
Nov 480,263.2

GDP at 2005 market price (ok lah I am not statistician, just blindly take)
1997
145,964.8

2012
302,000 (just estimated)

so GDP growth 1997 to 2012 roughly X 2 (about 72/15y ... 4.8% pa)

while M3 X3, the rate is about (114/15y = 7.6%pa)

so naive calculation, inflation rate = 7.6-4.8% pa = 2.8%pa

now ... if you take peak 1997 HDB resale price index of 138, compound it at 2.8%pa for 15y, you have 210 ... about the same as current level

so HDB resale price index growth rate matches inflation growth rate ... MBT did an excellent job :rolleyes:

so bros and sisters, if HDB is your own roof, you effectively gain nothing if you bought in 1997 :banghead:

[mcmlxxvi]

Means what? Values did not appreciate AT ALL?

[phantom_opera]

Means what? Values did not appreciate AT ALL?

bro mcm ... only our 1st generation can enjoy real value gain due to high GDP growth years:

1969 Tiong Bahru 3r flat 6.9k, now 300k+ ... which is 9%pa compound for 43y

now let's check M3 / GDP growth:

1969 14,550
2012 302,000

GDP grows by 7.3% pa ... which explains why your Tiong Bahru flat can appreciate so much

if you bought in 1997, you bought at the peak, in fat, MBT did such an excellent job of rescuing these people by maintaining property value :rolleyes:
you must be DAFT not voting for MBT ;)

[mcmlxxvi]

Cant vote for mbt liao la, backbencher nia. Fat or no fat. Lol


bro mcm ... only our 1st generation can enjoy real value gain due to high GDP growth years:

1969 Tiong Bahru 3r flat 6.9k, now 300k+ ... which is 9%pa compound for 43y

now let's check M3 / GDP growth:

1969 14,550
2012 302,000

GDP grows by 7.3% pa ... which explains why your Tiong Bahru flat can appreciate so much

if you bought in 1997, you bought at the peak, in fat, MBT did such an excellent job of rescuing these people by maintaining property value :rolleyes:
you must be DAFT not voting for MBT ;)

[Shanhz]

thanks bro phantom for the analysis... does give us an idea of where we stand. well, those who are vested will thank MBT, but those who are not, will curse him, because time reference is different for diff pple.

for those age 30, means they only measure between 2013 and 1983. but those age 60 will be 2013 and 1953. haha. obviously the age 60 one will be happier, but only provided he got >1 ppty.

[phantom_opera]

now, I would like to highlight another disturbing stats:

GDP
2005 208,763
2012 302,000

5.3%pa for 7y

M3

2005 Nov 225,206.3
2012 Nov 480,263.2

10.3%pa for 7y

inflation = 10.3 - 5.3 = 5% pa!!!

:banghead:

[phantom_opera]

http://property.zaobao.com.sg/ssi/images11/hdb130103.jpg

median COV is gaining momentum

[phantom_opera]

now above 202 liao, on the way to my target of 276


http://www.tremeritus.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/HDBrpi1.jpg

[phantom_opera]

1975 lkk Holland HDB worth 920k :scared-3:

21 Holland Dr 21 to 25 119.00
Standard 1975 $920,000.00

same price as this (but this was built in 2003):

20 Jln Membina 21 to 25 110.00
Improved 2003 $930,000.00

5 Tg Pagar Plaza 11 to 15 139.00
Adjoined Flat 1977 $965,000.00

122 Lor 2 Toa Payoh 16 to 20 121.00
Improved 1999 $928,000.00

78 Marine Dr 21 to 25 122.00
Standard 1977 $910,000.00

[Jaykj]

1975 lkk Holland HDB worth 920k :scared-3:

21 Holland Dr 21 to 25 119.00
Standard 1975 $920,000.00same price as this (but this was built in 2003):

20 Jln Membina 21 to 25 110.00
Improved 2003 $930,000.00

5 Tg Pagar Plaza 11 to 15 139.00
Adjoined Flat 1977 $965,000.00

122 Lor 2 Toa Payoh 16 to 20 121.00
Improved 1999 $928,000.00

78 Marine Dr 21 to 25 122.00
Standard 1977 $910,000.00

There is a similiar unit to this trying to break the record and asking for $980k with full view of Bukit Timah Hill. A lower floor unit is asking $870k. I'm very curious who are these buyers? Downgraders from neighbouring condos? New citizens? Neu Rich? What's the attraction of Holland here :confused:

It used to be the 5Rm here is around 20% cheaoer than those at Holland Close/ Ave (Blk 3, 30). Does that mean those can break the $1m barrier.....that is if there were sellers in the first place?

[phantom_opera]

There is a similiar unit to this trying to break the record and asking for $980k with full view of Bukit Timah Hill. A lower floor unit is asking $870k. I'm very curious who are these buyers? Downgraders from neighbouring condos? New citizens? Neu Rich? What's the attraction of Holland here :confused:

It used to be the 5Rm here is around 20% cheaoer than those at Holland Close/ Ave (Blk 3, 30). Does that mean those can break the $1m barrier.....that is if there were sellers in the first place?

Toyota is now 150k .... what is 900k ?? :banghead:

[eng81157]

wait till pinnacle hits 5 year old :scared-5: :scared-5:

[phantom_opera]

wait till pinnacle hits 5 year old :scared-5: :scared-5:

how come I have a feeling when first Pinnacle is transacted, market about to crash ?

when is first MOP over for P@D ???

[eng81157]

how come I have a feeling when first Pinnacle is transacted, market about to crash ?

when is first MOP over for P@D ???

1 more year to go. it's a crazy bubble

[Jaykj]

Toyota is now 150k .... what is 900k ?? :banghead:

Used to be 1.5 peanut. I guess now it's peanuts to some....i seriously feel sad for the younger generation :(