OCBC unit sees 10-20% fall in high-end home prices

[reporter2]

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/archive/wednesday/premium/singapore/ocbc-unit-sees-10-20-fall-high-end-home-prices

Published June 27, 2012

OCBC unit sees 10-20% fall in high-end home prices

Low interest rates, higher liquidity to buoy mass-market, shoebox demand

By Mindy Tan


EVEN as the gap between high-end and mass market residential prices hits a nine-year low, high-end prices are forecast to fall between 10 and 20 per cent in FY12.

According to the latest OCBC Investment Research (OIR) report, while the historic average price premium between the high-end and mass-market segment (over Q1 2004 to Q1 2012) is 98 per cent on a psf basis, the price premium has shrunk to 82 per cent in Q1 2012.

That said, OIR forecasts that prices would fall a further 10 and 20 per cent in FY12 following the ABSD measures - of which one key consideration was an additional 10 per cent stamp duty on property purchases made by foreigners and corporate entities - implemented in December.

Stated the report: "These measures are particularly onerous as, from 1st Jan to 8th Dec 2011, we had estimated that 29 per cent of all transactions were by foreigners and corporate entities. As a result, we saw primary sales in the high-end core central region (CCR) segment dip 79 per cent year-on-year (126 units sold) in Q1 2012."

Conversely, low interest rates and increased liquidity in the system is likely to sustain demand for shoebox and mass market units.

Indeed, the fall in interest rates between 2008 and Q2 2012 translates into an increase of almost 210,000 in the number of households above the income hurdle for properties between $600,000 and $1 million.

"To offer a perspective of this magnitude, if 5 to 10 per cent of these incremental households were to purchase private property, this would be equivalent to 70 to 140 per cent of total annual primary sales," said OIR.

Coupled with the ample liquidity in the banking system, this would underpin sustained demand for shoebox and mass-market units, and unhinge prices from historical norms of affordability based on domestic wage levels and rental yields, said OIR.

"All things considered, we forecast that mass market residential prices would increase by 0 to 5 per cent over FY2012."

Shoebox units can also expect to continue enjoying a premium over non-shoebox units over FY2012 and FY2013. However, this premium could diminish or even reverse after 2015, particularly for shoebox units in the outside central region (OCR), noted OIR.

Shoebox units currently enjoy a psf premium of about 7-9 per cent.

"This phenomenon is within our expectations given the demand for units at lower price quantums, and would likely continue over FY12-13 as liquidity remains abundant," said OIR.

Indeed, OCR shoebox prices might already be overextended. OCR transactions have mostly been in the same psf band as rest of central region (RCR) new sale transactions (mostly between $1,200 and $1,300 psf). Sales in the CCR, on the other hand, have mostly transacted between $1,600 and $1,700 psf).

According to OIR estimates, the number of OCR shoebox units could grow by more than 450 per cent by 2015.

In the event of this supply glut, OCR shoebox rents could fall 10-20 per cent, assuming that rents would fall to the level of a "reasonable substitute" - a HDB flat in a similar location with around 50 per cent more space.

"Based on a sample of the current market, we estimate that current rentals of an OCR shoebox unit indicate a net rental yield of around 4.1 per cent," added OIR.

In addition to falling rents, net rental yields of OCR shoebox units, particularly 99-year leasehold units, could expand closer to those of HDB flats in an environment of rising interest rates and higher supply of completed shoebox units, said OIR.

"From our sensitivity analysis, we found that if the yield spread between OCR shoebox units and substitute HDB flats should shrink by 25 per cent, we could see a 15-30 per cent decrease in the capital values of shoebox units in a bear case scenario," said the report.

[radha08]

another RUBBISH analysis...:p

[phantom_opera]

My own version:

1. Is HDB resale price insane??

Back in 1996, average family income per month including employer CPF is around 4k while HDB resale price index peaked at 140. Now average family income per month is around 7k while the HDB resale index is at 194. Is the market as insane as 1996?? Income is up 75% but resale index is only up by 37%. So the answer is no. As long as family income continues to climb, HDB is still very affordable.

2. Immigration

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aTaS3GAY7vE/TqJB2usaAAI/AAAAAAAAAL8/5V1MPOb8L0I/s640/Singapore+PR+Rejected+Approved+2004+-+2010.png

> 300k SPRs were imported since 2005, obviously our MND/HDB has not planned for them where to stay ... need I say more?

3. Record # of marriages

http://www.straitstimes.com/STI/STIMEDIA/pdf/20120214/ST_IMAGES_LKMARRIAGE15.pdf

from about 22k in 2000/2001 to 27k in 2011 .... need I say more?

4. Many fellow Singaporeans who bought CCR in 1996 still not making profit, need I say more?

5. Since Lehman crisis, US garmen has printed 300T USD ... interest rate in G7 all near zero ... do u expect interest rate to go up in next 5y?? Hot money printed in UK, US, Japan must seek returns in Asia, need I say more??

;)

[yowetan]

My own version:

1. Is HDB resale price insane??

Back in 1996, average family income per month including employer CPF is around 4k while HDB resale price index peaked at 140. Now average family income per month is around 7k while the HDB resale index is at 194. Is the market as insane as 1996?? Income is up 75% but resale index is only up by 37%. So the answer is no. As long as family income continues to climb, HDB is still very affordable.

2. Immigration

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aTaS3GAY7vE/TqJB2usaAAI/AAAAAAAAAL8/5V1MPOb8L0I/s640/Singapore+PR+Rejected+Approved+2004+-+2010.png

> 300k SPRs were imported since 2005, obviously our MND/HDB has not planned for them where to stay ... need I say more?

3. Record # of marriages

http://www.straitstimes.com/STI/STIMEDIA/pdf/20120214/ST_IMAGES_LKMARRIAGE15.pdf

from about 22k in 2000/2001 to 27k in 2011 .... need I say more?

4. Many fellow Singaporeans who bought CCR in 1996 still not making profit, need I say more?

5. Since Lehman crisis, US garmen has printed 300T USD ... interest rate in G7 all near zero ... do u expect interest rate to go up in next 5y?? Hot money printed in UK, US, Japan must seek returns in Asia, need I say more??

;)

What is your conclusion?

[Estella83]

No wonder you are still earning 3.5k.

[ikan bilis]

What is your conclusion?

i think his conclusion is => "need I say more??"... :D





btw:
phantom, agree with your points,... but hor...
- your pt 4... like that also can ??...
- your pt 5... usa got print a lot lah... but not up to 300T...

[DKSG]

Is this the same group of analysts that says prices will be down 30% within 1-2 quarters when CM5 was introduced ?

Then later pretend nothing happened and make another prediction ?

I think they are worse that the fake fortune tellers in Arab Street, Chinatown, etc ...

Someone should hold them accountable for the things they say.

Just like we disallow developers or agents make representations that prices will CONFIRM go up by 20xx, so better buy NOW! Kinda statement.

But then if accountability rules sets in, i CONFIRM Ah B will be the first one to stay near Loyang Changi PC!

DKSG

[teddybear]

This type of analysis just can't stand up scrutiny. Let's check what they say:
"OCBC unit sees 10-20% fall in high-end home prices"

"OCR transactions have mostly been in the same psf band as rest of central region (RCR) new sale transactions (mostly between $1,200 and $1,300 psf). Sales in the CCR, on the other hand, have mostly transacted between $1,600 and $1,700 psf)."
"All things considered, we forecast that mass market residential prices would increase by 0 to 5 per cent over FY2012."

So OCR mostly transacting at about same price as RCR of $1200-1300 psf.
CCR now mostly transacting at $1600-1700 psf.
For CCR to fall 20% means to fall to 1280-1360 psf! <- Can that ever be possible when OCR expected to increase by 0-5% means increase to $1260-$1365 psf! In this case, it means OCR same price as CCR! :doh::scared-1:
Those analysts treat all property buyers as bloody stupid idiot, goodu, brain-dead to be willing to pay OCR property for same price as CCR? :banghead:




http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/archive/wednesday/premium/singapore/ocbc-unit-sees-10-20-fall-high-end-home-prices

Published June 27, 2012

OCBC unit sees 10-20% fall in high-end home prices

Low interest rates, higher liquidity to buoy mass-market, shoebox demand

By Mindy Tan


EVEN as the gap between high-end and mass market residential prices hits a nine-year low, high-end prices are forecast to fall between 10 and 20 per cent in FY12.

According to the latest OCBC Investment Research (OIR) report, while the historic average price premium between the high-end and mass-market segment (over Q1 2004 to Q1 2012) is 98 per cent on a psf basis, the price premium has shrunk to 82 per cent in Q1 2012.

That said, OIR forecasts that prices would fall a further 10 and 20 per cent in FY12 following the ABSD measures - of which one key consideration was an additional 10 per cent stamp duty on property purchases made by foreigners and corporate entities - implemented in December.

Stated the report: "These measures are particularly onerous as, from 1st Jan to 8th Dec 2011, we had estimated that 29 per cent of all transactions were by foreigners and corporate entities. As a result, we saw primary sales in the high-end core central region (CCR) segment dip 79 per cent year-on-year (126 units sold) in Q1 2012."

Conversely, low interest rates and increased liquidity in the system is likely to sustain demand for shoebox and mass market units.

Indeed, the fall in interest rates between 2008 and Q2 2012 translates into an increase of almost 210,000 in the number of households above the income hurdle for properties between $600,000 and $1 million.

"To offer a perspective of this magnitude, if 5 to 10 per cent of these incremental households were to purchase private property, this would be equivalent to 70 to 140 per cent of total annual primary sales," said OIR.

Coupled with the ample liquidity in the banking system, this would underpin sustained demand for shoebox and mass-market units, and unhinge prices from historical norms of affordability based on domestic wage levels and rental yields, said OIR.

"All things considered, we forecast that mass market residential prices would increase by 0 to 5 per cent over FY2012."

Shoebox units can also expect to continue enjoying a premium over non-shoebox units over FY2012 and FY2013. However, this premium could diminish or even reverse after 2015, particularly for shoebox units in the outside central region (OCR), noted OIR.

Shoebox units currently enjoy a psf premium of about 7-9 per cent.

"This phenomenon is within our expectations given the demand for units at lower price quantums, and would likely continue over FY12-13 as liquidity remains abundant," said OIR.

Indeed, OCR shoebox prices might already be overextended. OCR transactions have mostly been in the same psf band as rest of central region (RCR) new sale transactions (mostly between $1,200 and $1,300 psf). Sales in the CCR, on the other hand, have mostly transacted between $1,600 and $1,700 psf).

According to OIR estimates, the number of OCR shoebox units could grow by more than 450 per cent by 2015.

In the event of this supply glut, OCR shoebox rents could fall 10-20 per cent, assuming that rents would fall to the level of a "reasonable substitute" - a HDB flat in a similar location with around 50 per cent more space.

"Based on a sample of the current market, we estimate that current rentals of an OCR shoebox unit indicate a net rental yield of around 4.1 per cent," added OIR.

In addition to falling rents, net rental yields of OCR shoebox units, particularly 99-year leasehold units, could expand closer to those of HDB flats in an environment of rising interest rates and higher supply of completed shoebox units, said OIR.

"From our sensitivity analysis, we found that if the yield spread between OCR shoebox units and substitute HDB flats should shrink by 25 per cent, we could see a 15-30 per cent decrease in the capital values of shoebox units in a bear case scenario," said the report.

[richwang]

Just got my HDB Title Deed.
The first owner paid $61K for the 4-room flat in 1991. I guess fresh university graduates were paid something like S$2k / month at that time.

Now first hand HDB is selling at S$300K++
fresh graduates are paid S$3k /month.

Is HDB affordable? Need I say more?

Thanks,
Richard

[teddybear]

Wrong analysis. You should base on household income, not fresh graduate income! Last time, only 5% are graduates. Now >15% are graduates. The normal graduates are lousy graduates, that is why got paid $3k /month. The good graduates are paid >$5k pm now vs $2k pm in 1991. :p

Last time 1991 medium household income $3k+ /month? Now medium household income $8k+ /month?

Last time, $61k/($2k *12) = 2.54 years. It means a person just need to work for 2.54 years to finish paying off their new HDB flat! New HDB flat prices are just mis-priced, priced too cheap!

Now $300k / ($8k * 12) = 3.125 years! Slight increase only! It means new HDB flat prices still very cheap! In fact, too cheap!

A fairer number of years should be >=8 years, which means fair medium HDB flat prices should be at least = ($8k * 12)*8 = $768k! No wonder resale HDB flats are transacting at such prices!



Just got my HDB Title Deed.
The first owner paid $61K for the 4-room flat in 1991. I guess fresh university graduates were paid something like S$2k / month at that time.

Now first hand HDB is selling at S$300K++
fresh graduates are paid S$3k /month.

Is HDB affordable? Need I say more?

Thanks,
Richard

[phantom_opera]

i think his conclusion is => "need I say more??"... :D





btw:
phantom, agree with your points,... but hor...
- your pt 4... like that also can ??...
- your pt 5... usa got print a lot lah... but not up to 300T...
Pt 4 is pure technical analysis and it is 3trillion not 300 trillion sorry

To ruchwang, After 1992, Cpf is allowed to pay for property under the great asset enhancement program becos pap wants u to commit ur money here lol

[carbuncle]

Wrong analysis. You should base on household income, not fresh graduate income! Last time, only 5% are graduates. Now >15% are graduates. The normal graduates are lousy graduates, that is why got paid $3k /month. The good graduates are paid >$5k pm now vs $2k pm in 1991. :p

Last time 1991 medium household income $3k+ /month? Now medium household income $8k+ /month?

Last time, $61k/($2k *12) = 2.54 years. It means a person just need to work for 2.54 years to finish paying off their new HDB flat! New HDB flat prices are just mis-priced, priced too cheap!

Now $300k / ($8k * 12) = 3.125 years! Slight increase only! It means new HDB flat prices still very cheap! In fact, too cheap!

A fairer number of years should be >=8 years, which means fair medium HDB flat prices should be at least = ($8k * 12)*8 = $768k! No wonder resale HDB flats are transacting at such prices!

Bro... Full salary go to paying off the house ah? No need to eat meh...

[Rysk]

Just got my HDB Title Deed.
The first owner paid $61K for the 4-room flat in 1991. I guess fresh university graduates were paid something like S$2k / month at that time.

Now first hand HDB is selling at S$300K++
fresh graduates are paid S$3k /month.

Is HDB affordable? Need I say more?

Thanks,
Richard

Your analysis not accurate lah..
Last time army recruits wear short pant earned $20/mth.. 3-rm $20k.... now army recruits wear long pant earning $480/mth.. 3-rm should be $480k..

Wow!! :scared-5: our housing is so affordable!!! Need I say more lor.. :D

[Allthepies]

i'm intending to add 1 more to my portfolio, need I say more? :D:D

[lajia]

Your analysis not accurate lah..
Last time army recruits wear short pant earned $20/mth.. 3-rm $20k.... now army recruits wear long pant earning $480/mth.. 3-rm should be $480k..

Wow!! :scared-5: our housing is so affordable!!! Need I say more lor.. :D

Hahaha......that's correct. And furthermore, u need two fresh grad to buy a hdb which make it 6k/mth. Should be alright. And for 3rm flat should be enough for starter...and if they insist on location or bigger flat, then of course they have to be ready to pay more. :p

By the way, hdb got what title deed meh?? :confused:

[richwang]

True, there is no title deed. It is a duplicate. And it clears says I am pay $1 rental per year. I guess the original Title Deed (they call it Master Title Deed) is still with HDB?

Thanks,
Richard

[richwang]

Last time, only 5% can get U Degree. Now there are 15%.
But does that mean U Degree must worth less?

If we go down to that direction, people will be force to get masters.
And the good ones will need to get Ph D.
That's what is happening in China.
Every year, there are millions of U graduates. They are willing to be paid S$0 for the 1st job, so after one year, they are no long "fresh" graduates.
To land a good job, masters are the norm.
The biggest problem is for ladies. When they get Ph D, getting married is a real challenging. That's why some ladies declined to get a Ph D.

Life for the younger generation is not easy.

Thanks,
Richard

[teddybear]

Alamak! this is a general rule/guide that every country used to compute the affordability of house based on your salary la..

You are right to say that generally people will not/can't pay off in such as a short period because you still need to divert some money for foods/investment/maintenance/leisure.. so using this guide to see whether you can afford a house comfortably for a long run (some use 1/3 of salary rule to installment la).


Bro... Full salary go to paying off the house ah? No need to eat meh...

[richwang]

I find the army pay/allowance was a joke (and it still is).
How can you use that to justified HDB price increases.

For your information, the right price for army pay is:
around $4k for U holders
around $3k for Poly
around $2k for JC graduates.

If you don't believe it, just ask any lady who is in the BMT. (Yes, that's the right price to attract a person to join army willingly. Of course, u need other characters and fitness.)

Thanks,
Richard

[phantom_opera]

any income must take emPloyer Cpf into consideration so teddybear not that far off, the very fact is that employer Cpf was reduced to 12pc was a killer to Property market, now restored to 16pc is positive, if u factor in employer Cpf avg family income in 2001 was 4k now probably around 8k pm, since pc is for top 20 pc, it could have even higher growth relative to 2001

[richwang]

The birth rate in Singapore is dropping,
but the household size recently is increasing.
What does that tell you?
More youngsters are staying with their parents.

If someone is squeezing parents and in-laws into the same condo unit, household income just increase with the each person's pay to increase.

Young couples are forced to work in double income mode.
Housewives are disappearing.

How to increase birth rate?

Thanks,
Richard

[phantom_opera]

Due to the 27k record marriages, we have hard demand, not everyone can wait for bto which takes 4y to deliver key, ppl also marry much later comPared to 199x and thus can decide btw EC and PC, one year rollout 12k Btos and 12k ECs N PCs is just all right no oversupply

[richwang]

Sure, there are real rich kids.
If you visit NUS and think the BMW belongs to a professor, you can be wrong.
Students driving high end cars are not unheard of.

Question? Is the money really earned by them?

Thanks,
Richard

[richwang]

The record high number of marriage is once again misleading.
The number counters non-Singaporean marriages.

The truth is more and more local Singaporeans are not married.

Thanks,
Richard
PS. Agreed the marriage number (regardless local or not) will push up the property price. But is it sustainable? Can local Singaporeans accept a Singapore where locals are minority?

[richwang]

Back to the topic of high end property price.
If Reflection is of any guide, it is dropping.

Thanks,
Richard

[phantom_opera]

u want to be like Japan? First we import malaysians and indon Chinese and now Indian n mainland Chinese nothing wrong with that as India and china will be as strong as US one day, Singapore is a tiny island surrounded by Muslims, in that context life wont be easy, if u want to enjoy life work hard invest smart as there is no free lunch, losers not welcome

[teddybear]

Based on your suggested figures, JC and Poly graduates will be overpaid! :p


I find the army pay/allowance was a joke (and it still is).
How can you use that to justified HDB price increases.

For your information, the right price for army pay is:
around $4k for U holders
around $3k for Poly
around $2k for JC graduates.

If you don't believe it, just ask any lady who is in the BMT. (Yes, that's the right price to attract a person to join army willingly. Of course, u need other characters and fitness.)

Thanks,
Richard

[richwang]

In the old good days of 1980s, every HDB owner is a winner.
Just buy 1st hand HDB and sell in 2nd hand market.
So 80% was winners.

Now you need to be multiple property owners, so inflation will indeed be good news for you.
How many multiple property owners do we have in Singapore?
10% are winners?

For the next generation, maybe you need to be top 1% to be considered as winners.

If we continue with that direction, only top 1000 earners in Singapore will be winners.

Good luck!
Richard

[teddybear]

Not true lah. Scadinavian countries are known to have very high birth rates, but parents both all working at same time. This is not the problem. The problem is somewhere else as demonstrated by real-life example.


The birth rate in Singapore is dropping,
but the household size recently is increasing.
What does that tell you?
More youngsters are staying with their parents.

If someone is squeezing parents and in-laws into the same condo unit, household income just increase with the each person's pay to increase.

Young couples are forced to work in double income mode.
Housewives are disappearing.

How to increase birth rate?

Thanks,
Richard

[richwang]

Army around the world is better paid because they are indeed risking their lives.
I was double paid than my friends when I was in Chinese army.
I don't think the BMT girls here are overpaid. They are just better paid.
If you like, you can send your daughters to the army. I will complain they are getting better pay.

Thanks,
Richard

[teddybear]

Now HDB owners are winners everywhere wah. Buy HDB flats at $300k. After 5 years, easily can sell $600k, profit $300k!

Last time 1990 buy HDB flat $90k. 5 years later can sell $180k only for profit of $90k only! :beats-me-man:

Which scenario you want to be? :p



In the old good days of 1980s, every HDB owner is a winner.
Just buy 1st hand HDB and sell in 2nd hand market.
So 80% was winners.

Now you need to be multiple property owners, so inflation will indeed be good news for you.
How many multiple property owners do we have in Singapore?
10% are winners?

For the next generation, maybe you need to be top 1% to be considered as winners.

If we continue with that direction, only top 1000 earners in Singapore will be winners.

Good luck!
Richard

[richwang]

My French friends work 35-hour week. And they mean it.
We had a power failure in our French computer center, no one came in early to recover it. So we need to wait until Singapore time afternoon (French morning) to get access.

Their double income = 2 x 0.5 working hours here.

They have something like 1 year paid maternity leave, and (hold your breath) 3 years unpaid leave.

With such benefits, how to expect their birth rate to drop?

Thanks,
Richard

[teddybear]

Actually I still haven't taken into consideration other living expenses like:
1) Income Taxes & VATs (biggest ticket items in US, Europe etc, income tax easily 40-50% vs Singapore's 5% average and VATs easily 17% vs Singapore's 7%! :doh:)
2) Living expenses
3) interest rates (In US, even now still >3.5% vs Singapore's 1%!)

If we factor in above factors, Singaporeans should be able to afford higher-priced properties relative to their annual income since have much higher proportion of take-home pay after taxes and living expenses and interests! :p



Alamak! this is a general rule/guide that every country used to compute the affordability of house based on your salary la..

You are right to say that generally people will not/can't pay off in such as a short period because you still need to divert some money for foods/investment/maintenance/leisure.. so using this guide to see whether you can afford a house comfortably for a long run (some use 1/3 of salary rule to installment la).



Wrong analysis. You should base on household income, not fresh graduate income! Last time, only 5% are graduates. Now >15% are graduates. The normal graduates are lousy graduates, that is why got paid $3k /month. The good graduates are paid >$5k pm now vs $2k pm in 1991. :p

Last time 1991 medium household income $3k+ /month? Now medium household income $8k+ /month?

Last time, $61k/($2k *12) = 2.54 years. It means a person just need to work for 2.54 years to finish paying off their new HDB flat! New HDB flat prices are just mis-priced, priced too cheap!

Now $300k / ($8k * 12) = 3.125 years! Slight increase only! It means new HDB flat prices still very cheap! In fact, too cheap!

A fairer number of years should be >=8 years, which means fair medium HDB flat prices should be at least = ($8k * 12)*8 = $768k! No wonder resale HDB flats are transacting at such prices!

[carbuncle]

......delete.....

[teddybear]

Wow, if that is the case, you should tell govt about it!
The point I want to make is that women working doesn't mean birthrate will drop. This is a big discrimination to women. :p


My French friends work 35-hour week. And they mean it.
We had a power failure in our French computer center, no one came in early to recover it. So we need to wait until Singapore time afternoon (French morning) to get access.

Their double income = 2 x 0.5 working hours here.

They have something like 1 year paid maternity leave, and (hold your breath) 3 years unpaid leave.

With such benefits, how to expect their birth rate to drop?

Thanks,
Richard

[richwang]

Maybe you are qualified to pay 70% tax in France (EUR 1M annual income).
That's why Europe is not good for the super rich.

I was hunting for job reporting to Ireland Training Manager.
Guess what, a Training Manager there is only paid USD 45K per year.
And a Store Manager is also paid USD 30K per year.
A JC graduate can also be paid USD 20K per year.

Their income gap is so narrow.

Thanks,
Richard

[phantom_opera]

How can hdb owner back in 80s winner by just owning one property? They need to invest also to climb the social ladder. I am not saying PAP is perfect but if u have travelled to other countries u will know PAP is already very good in protecting naive and silly people that only know how to complain eg some taxi uncles here

There is no free lunch in this world when I was a uk student I get free dental, medical n the students there pay very little fees and just drink drunk everyday, income tax is 40 pc min, gst is 17.5pc, i also been to Italy Greece to see how they drink kopi eat ice-cream at Venice like no need to work

See what happen to them now? If sg model not sustainable? Then what else is sustainable? Bhutan or vilcabamba?

[Allthepies]

Maybe you are qualified to pay 70% tax in France (EUR 1M annual income).
That's why Europe is not good for the super rich.

I was hunting for job reporting to Ireland Training Manager.
Guess what, a Training Manager there is only paid USD 45K per year.
And a Store Manager is also paid USD 30K per year.
A JC graduate can also be paid USD 20K per year.

Their income gap is so narrow.

Thanks,
Richard
so in the above scenario, why bother to work hard, everyone is paid almost equally? the end result is all just slack together and tat what is happeninig in Europe now =) Europe still can survive becos they are big and united and can print and print....

try the European system in Singapore, are we united and big? our friendly neighbors cant wait to eat us up... can we print money like the big European nations? can we go back to farming to feed 3million hungry Sing? do we have amazing scenery to become a tourism economy?

[richwang]

When I was visiting Japan, I was so shocked to know most Japanese ladies' top dream is to get married.
The tradition is after marriage, they don't need to work. Husband's income goes to wife's account. Wife gives daily allowance to husband.

The whole modern education system was designed to best suit men. Even when a man gets his Ph D at age of 30, he is still in a good position to get married and have baby.
But the best age for ladies to give birth is indeed 25+ years old.

So the system is forcing more and more successful ladies to fail on individual lives. (And most of them don't even know why.)

There is no discriminations here, men and women are biologically different.
I respect the difference, and I particular respect ladies who spend so much efforts to raise their children.

Thanks,
Richard

[phantom_opera]

Work is not everything true, in sg u can join civil service if u want to lead family life with 3 kids, but dun expect can drink kopi eat ice-cream retire at 55 hoh, some pros no kid aim to retire at 50 with multiple props so to each his own

[richwang]

Please don't generalize "Singapore Model".
I have been here just for 20 years.
I respect LKY, he is no doubt world class leader.
When he spoke, others leaders (US, Europe, China, India, Russian) all listen.

But in the past 5-10 years, starting from putting Casinos at the heart of Singapore, has the "Singapore Model" been changed?

Thanks,
Richard

[Allthepies]

Work is not everything true, in sg u can join civil service if u want to lead family life with 3 kids, but dun expect can drink kopi eat ice-cream retire at 55 hoh, some pros no kid aim to retire at 50 with multiple props so to each his own

i beg to differ :D im planning to retire @ 35 with 1 kid. it all boils down to one's expectation. i'm from civil service too.

[phantom_opera]

i beg to differ :D im planning to retire @ 35 with 1 kid. it all boils down to one's expectation. i'm from civil service too.
There u go, I said 3 kids not one kid, to retire at 35, how many civil servants can do that unless u strike TOTO
And what is your monthly running cost when retiring at 35? Care to share?

MBS or casinos is good for sg if it is just a tool to boost tourism, eventually I will expect them to ban middle class from entering

[richwang]

Maybe we should invest in solar energy. Some US research shows it can reduce energy cost by 90%!

Thanks,
Richard

[richwang]

It is known that Casinos are linked to dirty money.
About 10 years ago, I read a Singaporean Mother so proud to say her daughter will not need to make a living like Macau girls.

But now, it is so easy to have $7k++ income to be an "escort".
Can she still be confident enough that her daughter will not go for the best paid job?

They can ban lower-income (which don't really contribute much to Casino profits) or even middle-income.

They cannot ban the destroy of a good value system. The "Singapore Model" I missed.

Thanks,
Richard

[Allthepies]

There u go, I said 3 kids not one kid, to retire at 35, how many civil servants can do that unless u strike TOTO
And what is your monthly running cost when retiring at 35? Care to share?

MBS or casinos is good for sg if it is just a tool to boost tourism, eventually I will expect them to ban middle class from entering

not tat lucky, never strike TOTO
$1500 per pax...
if want 3 kids need to work many years more...

[teddybear]

Running costs of $1500 x 3 = $4500 pm. To retire at 35 years old and say you live until 85 years old, you need total net cash $2.7m? But you don't need $2.7m now because your capital can grow, but factor in inflation, may be $1.5m now at least? :D


not tat lucky, never strike TOTO
$1500 per pax...
if want 3 kids need to work many years more...

[phantom_opera]

Running costs of $1500 x 3 = $4500 pm. To retire at 35 years old and say you live until 85 years old, you need total net cash $2.7m? But you don't need $2.7m now because your capital can grow, but factor in inflation, may be $1.5m now at least? :D

eh .. i think he expects his kid to survive on his/her own whens start work ...

also it assumes that he has 1.5m asset without any liabilities but liability can happen suddenly in next 45y (touch wood .... )

it is possible if you move to a low cost country e.g. a kampong in Malaysia, China, anywhere

[Allthepies]

Running costs of $1500 x 3 = $4500 pm. To retire at 35 years old and say you live until 85 years old, you need total net cash $2.7m? But you don't need $2.7m now because your capital can grow, but factor in inflation, may be $1.5m now at least? :D

im not so capable, don't have so much, im using ~10% ROI, slightly more than 1/3 of ur stated amount....

it exciting to test out, one life live it the way u like :D:D

[phantom_opera]

It is known that Casinos are linked to dirty money.
About 10 years ago, I read a Singaporean Mother so proud to say her daughter will not need to make a living like Macau girls.

But now, it is so easy to have $7k++ income to be an "escort".
Can she still be confident enough that her daughter will not go for the best paid job?

They can ban lower-income (which don't really contribute much to Casino profits) or even middle-income.

They cannot ban the destroy of a good value system. The "Singapore Model" I missed.

Thanks,
Richard

Don't blame the casinos. Would you give money to a disabled person selling tissue paper at MRT? Do you donate to NKF occasionally e.g. calling from home phone during NKF or Renci show?? You lead by example ... your children are watching u :-) Value must be led by example.

Nowadays brothers and sisters go to court to fight for inheritance ... again your children are watching :spliff2:

[phantom_opera]

im not so capable, don't have so much, im using ~10% ROI, slightly more than 1/3 of ur stated amount....

it exciting to test out, one life live it the way u like :D:D

it will be hard in the future to get 7% growth per annum as the G7 growth story of the past 30y is over, 10% is a dream ... unless u willing to take big risk in high growth country like China or put on right bets on technology stocks etc ... like what Michael Bloomberg said, I am willing to put all my money if you guarantee me 7% per year with minimum risk

[Allthepies]

it will be hard in the future to get 7% growth per annum as the G7 growth story of the past 30y is over, 10% is a dream ... unless u willing to take big risk in high growth country like China or put on right bets on technology stocks etc ... like what Michael Bloomberg said, I am willing to put all my money if you guarantee me 7% per year with minimum risk

trying out step by step, small player like me easier to get the required returns :D big players will be a problem...

[richwang]

My company is selling risk management systems.
We are spending lots of efforts to change our software to handle a funny situation: negative interest rate.
The system used to build in auto rejection of negative interest rate (where got such a good thing that you BORROW money, and people PAY you interests - that's giving away money for free.)
But we are living in such a mad world.

Thanks,
Richard

[amk]

richwang, do u actually read other people's reply, rebuttal , analysis, etc, AT ALL ?

[richwang]

Yes. I read the replies if it is quoted. I will get an e-mail.
But no, I don't read every single thread in this forum.
Debate? No, I normally don't get involved into direct debates.

For every single PM, I do reply.

Thanks,
Richard

[hyenergix]

Just got my HDB Title Deed.
The first owner paid $61K for the 4-room flat in 1991. I guess fresh university graduates were paid something like S$2k / month at that time.

Now first hand HDB is selling at S$300K++
fresh graduates are paid S$3k /month.

Is HDB affordable? Need I say more?

Thanks,
Richard

Congrats. You must be a very happy man after clearing the HDB loan. I think you could be on house-hunting mode again.