View Full Version : ARE THERE MANY SPECULATORS OUT THERE?
Some Bears have beeing shouting Bears coming and property price drop
jiat luck jiat luck.
My gut feel is that most speculators have long been gone hiding after few rounds of CMs. So all buyers now are genuine buyers with holding power.
Hence price may not drop that easily. Developers also have accumulated quite a bit for the past 2 to 3 boom years and so may able to hold long.
I have prepared some bullets in case Bear is right. Lasting 2 years is it enough? How about the rest? If most are prepared, then Bear may have wasted his time shouting.:scared-2:
devilplate
29-12-11, 00:59
Some Bears have beeing shouting Bears coming and property price drop
jiat luck jiat luck.
My gut feel is that most speculators have long been gone hiding after few rounds of CMs. So all buyers now are genuine buyers with holding power.
Hence price may not drop that easily. Developers also have accumulated quite a bit for the past 2 to 3 boom years and so may able to hold long.
I have prepared some bullets in case Bear is right. Lasting 2 years is it enough? How about the rest? If most are prepared, then Bear may have wasted his time shouting.:scared-2:
no major retrenchment yet in SG.....now dun hf doesnt mean will not happen
many might kancheong and let go at a discount (still make profit) if shyt strikes
Geylang OKT
29-12-11, 06:14
I would say easily a price drop of easily 40%-70% going forward :scared-3: :scared-3: :scared-3:
I would say easily a price drop of easily 40%-70% going forward :scared-3: :scared-3: :scared-3:Bear is speaking... :o
Allthepies
29-12-11, 06:57
I would say easily a price drop of easily 40%-70% going forward :scared-3: :scared-3: :scared-3:
wow! 70% drop is not impossible but need hdb to drop this amount first : P u can't expect freehold city condo to cost less than hdb in punngol?
Allthepies
29-12-11, 07:04
I have prepared some bullets in case Bear is right. Lasting 2 years is it enough? How about the rest? If most are prepared, then Bear may have wasted his time shouting.:scared-2:
yup 2 years of reserve is a good safety net. i have about 5years of bullets : )
I would say easily a price drop of easily 40%-70% going forward :scared-3: :scared-3: :scared-3:
Geylang area probably the first few places to drop first.
Given the steep rise in the MM units there.:confused:
wow! 70% drop is not impossible but need hdb to drop this amount first : P u can't expect freehold city condo to cost less than hdb in punngol?
300k-400k HDB 5rm in punggol drop to 90k-120k.
Is it possible? :confused:
If 70% drop , then probably Singapore is in a very bad situation. :confused:
:2cents:
C d 2012-2014 projects TOP..nxt yr 2012 si liao
2 yrs ago too many new projects sold. all investors wun 2 rent out. nt own stay.
companies oredi cut new hires
frens in banks just asked 2 leave.....banks oredi cutting. they c problems faster
Some Bears have beeing shouting Bears coming and property price drop
jiat luck jiat luck.
My gut feel is that most speculators have long been gone hiding after few rounds of CMs. So all buyers now are genuine buyers with holding power.
Hence price may not drop that easily. Developers also have accumulated quite a bit for the past 2 to 3 boom years and so may able to hold long.
I have prepared some bullets in case Bear is right. Lasting 2 years is it enough? How about the rest? If most are prepared, then Bear may have wasted his time shouting.:scared-2:
C d 2012-2014 projects TOP..nxt yr 2012 si liao
2 yrs ago too many new projects sold. all investors wun 2 rent out. nt own stay.
companies oredi cut new hires
frens in banks just asked 2 leave.....banks oredi cutting. they c problems faster
A lot of financial institutions are located in CCR. I suppose the units there will be suffering from the double impact from CM5 and retrenchments...
300k-400k HDB 5rm in punggol drop to 90k-120k.
Is it possible? :confused:
If 70% drop , then probably Singapore is in a very bad situation. :confused:
:2cents:Not possible lah... 30% already very unlikely, less 70% drop.
Not possible lah... 30% already very unlikely, less 70% drop.
my thought is outskirts 20% down the most for resale...but those that depends on foreigners buying hard to say...:o
rattydrama
29-12-11, 08:37
my thought is outskirts 20% down the most for resale...but those that depends on foreigners buying hard to say...:o
70% down even with big patio, aricon ledge, balcony penthouses also very unbelievable. Or we are referring to the Marq?
OKT could be eyeing many units now and is eager to see the price move South.
I think for OCR we will not see this happening. If there is a drop of 20-30% by developer, I would think alot will jump in.
:D :D
If developers blink first, they will not dish out 20% at one go... they will probably test market with 10% discount at most and by then, some might enter already... if 10% after 3 to 6 months still dry, they may then push for 15%. :D
devilplate
29-12-11, 09:36
If developers blink first, they will not dish out 20% at one go... they will probably test market with 10% discount at most and by then, some might enter already... if 10% after 3 to 6 months still dry, they may then push for 15%. :D
lets monitor winning land bids going forward
so far about 50psf lower liao.....more to come
For New launch very hard to say for outskirts...notice those upgraders and not affected by CM5 some still got bullets enough to buy high price as with low interest rate now (myopic as hard to say when it will raise at 5 yrs horizon) and also they may worry more CM dish out that will affect them later so still cheong in BUT at NEW launch not resale...
it will be interesting to Watch for the new EC launches...the first one to launch in 2012 will be Rainforest, next week will go and see look see look:o
I retired from Speculator status since cm4...
Some Bears have beeing shouting Bears coming and property price drop
jiat luck jiat luck.
My gut feel is that most speculators have long been gone hiding after few rounds of CMs. So all buyers now are genuine buyers with holding power.
Hence price may not drop that easily. Developers also have accumulated quite a bit for the past 2 to 3 boom years and so may able to hold long.
I have prepared some bullets in case Bear is right. Lasting 2 years is it enough? How about the rest? If most are prepared, then Bear may have wasted his time shouting.:scared-2:
As long rental still can cover mortgage, even without profit still can hold for long term capital gain... No reason to fire sale.
As long rental still can cover mortgage, even without profit still can hold for long term capital gain... No reason to fire sale.
Most of the firesales happened within 3 days of CM5. I just got back from a long trip and it seems that the anticipated sharp fall has not happened?
devilplate
29-12-11, 14:36
Most of the firesales happened within 3 days of CM5. I just got back from a long trip and it seems that the anticipated sharp fall has not happened?
i did not manage to sniff any landed firesale....:(
devilplate
29-12-11, 14:37
I retired from Speculator status since cm4...
tats natural....how to speculate since cm4? whaha
prior to tat, always tempted to 'speculate' bcoz px rise so quickly
i did not manage to sniff any landed firesale....:(
There were a few landed owners that were willing to let go at 10-15% below valuation. They are mostly LH though. Anyway, i have exercised my options for BR and both landed. The project manager of BR actually asked if I am willing to let go my 4BR at BR as there is another "eager" buyer who has ready cheque of 50 PSF more. This is really weird given CM5.
Waiting for the much anticipated drop of 20-30% in the near future if it ever happens.
East Lover
29-12-11, 16:03
I retired from Speculator status since cm4...
why? 炒房炒成房东？炒股炒成股东？？:D :D :D
May be die die must stay near the parents or in-laws.
There were a few landed owners that were willing to let go at 10-15% below valuation. They are mostly LH though. Anyway, i have exercised my options for BR and both landed. The project manager of BR actually asked if I am willing to let go my 4BR at BR as there is another "eager" buyer who has ready cheque of 50 PSF more. This is really weird given CM5.
Waiting for the much anticipated drop of 20-30% in the near future if it ever happens.
devilplate
29-12-11, 16:23
why? 炒房炒成房东？炒股炒成股东？？:D :D :D
long term investor la
wakakaka
There were a few landed owners that were willing to let go at 10-15% below valuation. They are mostly LH though. Anyway, i have exercised my options for BR and both landed. The project manager of BR actually asked if I am willing to let go my 4BR at BR as there is another "eager" buyer who has ready cheque of 50 PSF more. This is really weird given CM5.
Waiting for the much anticipated drop of 20-30% in the near future if it ever happens.
That is why I was bullish about Bedok Residences. The next one to look out for is the one next to Jurong East MRT.
The two landed owners must be glad that you exercise your option.
There were a few landed owners that were willing to let go at 10-15% below valuation. They are mostly LH though. Anyway, i have exercised my options for BR and both landed. The project manager of BR actually asked if I am willing to let go my 4BR at BR as there is another "eager" buyer who has ready cheque of 50 PSF more. This is really weird given CM5.
Waiting for the much anticipated drop of 20-30% in the near future if it ever happens.
Developers are speculators.;)
devilplate
29-12-11, 16:52
The two landed owners must be glad that you exercise your option.
mabe now banging their balls!! wakakaka
Next year may have to commit suicide.:scared-1:
mabe now banging their balls!! wakakaka
long term investor la
wakakaka
Well said... Teeheehee
Next year may have to commit suicide.:scared-1:
Bedok Reservoir welcomes them. :rolleyes:
buttercarp
29-12-11, 18:21
Bedok Reservoir welcomes them. :rolleyes:
Bedok reservoir got so many life buoys, every 50 metre got one.
The two landed owners must be glad that you exercise your option.
Don't think so. One of them was really desperate to buy back the option at 30 land psf. I kindly said no as I do not want him to take more losses next year.
Based on the three fundamental issues of historical behaviour, we have argued that large residual demand and long-term population growth targets will likely support the housing market going forward. While our view is based on the assumption that the Singapore economy will remain fairly stable, should conditions worsen beyond that of a technical recession, we could expect the PPI to decline. We are, however, confident that the PPI would recover in the mid- to longer-term in line with the underlying fundamentals of residual demand and new immigration growth. The outlook beyond 2015 will then depend largely on the state’s immigration policy.
http://www.joneslanglasallesites.com/appd/featured-article/new-stock-arriving-in-the-singapore-residential-market
Bedok reservoir got so many life buoys, every 50 metre got one.What's the purpose of life buoys for those who are determined to end it all? For those who can't swim but want to save the drowning? In the end got two bodies instead of one? :scared-4:
devilplate
29-12-11, 20:07
Don't think so. One of them was really desperate to buy back the option at 30 land psf. I kindly said no as I do not want him to take more losses next year.
So kind of u.....hehehe
There were a few landed owners that were willing to let go at 10-15% below valuation. They are mostly LH though. Anyway, i have exercised my options for BR and both landed. The project manager of BR actually asked if I am willing to let go my 4BR at BR as there is another "eager" buyer who has ready cheque of 50 PSF more. This is really weird given CM5.
Waiting for the much anticipated drop of 20-30% in the near future if it ever happens.
did a get the VVIP discount for the BR?
Unlike other countries, singapore property market is still very much controlled by Govt and unique. We have the public housing (HDB) to form the buffer.
As one of them mentioned, how can pte property falls close to or below HDB prices. Govt cannot allow HDB to crash. It will affect 80% of the population. Hence there is a limit for the private property prices to drop. Geylang OKT may have eaten too much bear's meat recently.:D
If I am not wrong, it was mentioned 20% of the population live in private property. So 20% with high income and can afford pte property is not surprising.
To make more happy, EC is introduced for borderline cases. Again govt comes in. I dont think there are such thing in any other country.
The current problem we faced is more of HDB being pushed up too high that even the 80% cannot swallowed anymore and not so much of the 20% cannot afford Pte property. Just my thot.
If our govt have layed so many layers of "protection" , the ones who jump in blindly has only himself to blame. I cant imagine someone can still speculate with the 4 yrs SSD. Govt is telling u make sure you can hold 4 years before you buy.
Has there been a recession that last more than 4 years in the past?
Only a depression will cause market all hell break loose- possible?:confused:
Don't think so. One of them was really desperate to buy back the option at 30 land psf. I kindly said no as I do not want him to take more losses next year.
Sellers remorse. It happens.
did a get the VVIP discount for the BR?
I managed to get the VVIP discount plus another small discount for the bulk buy with some bros from here who PMed me. The good news was that we did not need to queue up.
Sellers remorse. It happens.
That's definitely the case especially with the 17% discount given right after the announcement of CM5. After a week or so, he realised that the situation wasn't so bad after all.
Currently waiting eagerly for CM6.
devilplate
30-12-11, 09:23
That's definitely the case especially with the 17% discount given right after the announcement of CM5. After a week or so, he realised that the situation wasn't so bad after all.
Currently waiting eagerly for CM6.
urs damn gd deal.....17% off mid 2010 valuation rite?
so power....u can actually flip for immediate gain if there is no ssd
urs damn gd deal.....17% off mid 2010 valuation rite?
so power....u can actually flip for immediate gain if there is no ssd
Yes bro. That will be equivalent to buying at start 2010 price. Not a bad deal.
Currently in consolidation mode and will be looking to buy and hold landed for long term (at least 10 years). Will be taking up long term fixed rates mortgage as well.
That's definitely the case especially with the 17% discount given right after the announcement of CM5. After a week or so, he realised that the situation wasn't so bad after all.
Currently waiting eagerly for CM6.
I remember seeing one 3+S around serangoon after CM4. Hesitated in pulling the trigger. Otherwise sitting very pretty now.
I remember seeing one 3+S around serangoon after CM4. Hesitated in pulling the trigger. Otherwise sitting very pretty now.
Ahhhh..... Life is full of regrets my friend. I shudder to think of the missed opportunities in the end 2008 to mid 2009 run up. I had limited resources, and faced with so many options. I learnt from it and realised that as long as the numbers stack up, one can commit.
Lots of people are waiting on the sideline waiting to pounch when property market corrects. Wonder how many will really act or just NATO. Great opportunities are far and few. It boils down to guts.:D
Lots of people are waiting on the sideline waiting to pounch when property market corrects. Wonder how many will really act or just NATO. Great opportunities are far and few. It boils down to guts.:D
...and lots of patience :D :D
Yup! Good things must wait! :)
...and lots of patience :D :D
Lots of people are waiting on the sideline waiting to pounch when property market corrects. Wonder how many will really act or just NATO. Great opportunities are far and few. It boils down to guts.:D
From my observation, most people just NATO. I remember that during start 2009. Icon was going at around 750 k per studio. Rental was at amazing $3500 to $4000. Thats nearly 6.5 -7 % rental yield at a time when interest was at historical low. In many cases, the 2 years rental lease were fresh and corporate. Still, many were waiting on sidelines, waiting for a fall to 2006 prices of $400k. What happened next is well known history.
There are also a few who acted and went to max leverage, myself included; and not forgetting the Devil.
devilplate
30-12-11, 15:48
From my observation, most people just NATO. I remember that during start 2009. Icon was going at around 750 k per studio. Rental was at amazing $3500 to $4000. Thats nearly 6.5 -7 % rental yield at a time when interest was at historical low. In many cases, the 2 years rental lease were fresh and corporate. Still, many were waiting on sidelines, waiting for a fall to 2006 prices of $400k. What happened next is well known history.
There are also a few who acted and went to max leverage, myself included; and not forgetting the Devil.
during tat early 09, Icon 1bdr rental ever drop to 2.8k......i saw the TA ;)
Icon not very goodie leh....
can get clift below 650k :D
Stop buying since early 2009. Looking for other investment opportunities.
tats natural....how to speculate since cm4? whaha
prior to tat, always tempted to 'speculate' bcoz px rise so quickly
devilplate
30-12-11, 17:29
Stop buying since early 2009. Looking for other investment opportunities.
u mean early 2010?
Yup. 2010.
u mean early 2010?
during tat early 09, Icon 1bdr rental ever drop to 2.8k......i saw the TA ;)
Icon not very goodie leh....
can get clift below 650k :D
Yes that's true about the 2.8k rental. Sail rental was about 2.5-3.5k then. I am not advocating that Icon was best buy then, I was just using icon as an example that people tend to NATO and wait, even when the tenancy has already been confirmed for 2 years with a steady yield of 6.5% to 7%.
I remember there were 2 clift units selling at at 1100-1200 psf at that time. A studio and a 2 BR. I was at the bank auction at Amara Hotel. I picked up a bigger unit in D9 and a landed. I remember a young guy bidded for the low floor studio, maybe its you? :D
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