View Full Version : U.S. Housing Starts Jump 9.3%, SG Housing to Jump if not for CM5
U.S. Housing Starts Jump 9.3%, to Highest in Year
Builders broke ground in November on more houses than at any time in the past 19 months, led by a surge in multifamily units, signaling the market is stabilizing heading into 2012.
Starts (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=NHSPSTOT:IND) increased 9.3 percent to a 685,000 annual rate, exceeding the highest estimate (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=NHSPSTOT:IND) of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the most since April 2010, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington (http://topics.bloomberg.com/washington/). Building permits, a proxy for future construction, also climbed to a more than one-year high.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-20/housing-starts-in-u-s-increase-to-highest-level-in-year-in-stability-sign.html
Without CM5, I'm sure many people wouldn't hold back their X'mas shopping for property :D
U.S. Housing Starts Jump 9.3%, to Highest in Year
Builders broke ground in November on more houses than at any time in the past 19 months, led by a surge in multifamily units, signaling the market is stabilizing heading into 2012.
Starts (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=NHSPSTOT:IND) increased 9.3 percent to a 685,000 annual rate, exceeding the highest estimate (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=NHSPSTOT:IND) of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the most since April 2010, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington (http://topics.bloomberg.com/washington/). Building permits, a proxy for future construction, also climbed to a more than one-year high.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-20/housing-starts-in-u-s-increase-to-highest-level-in-year-in-stability-sign.html
Without CM5, I'm sure many people wouldn't hold back their X'mas shopping for property :DIts about time US housing market pick up... have been in the slum for many years already... its the Euro crisis that is most worrisome, not CM5 which is primarily targetted at investors. :cheers6:
Without CM5, I'm sure many people wouldn't hold back their X'mas shopping for property :D
How did you connect the dots?:scared-5:
One market is down in the dumps for several years, and one is at a multi year high. Where is the connection?
phantom_opera
21-12-11, 09:34
You guys really believe in numbers from US ... lol
It is only an excuse for short covering
Second data point this week suggesting property is stirring up in the US. Early days, but probably a small glimmer of hope. I look at those adverts that show 200k for a big home and i wonder why people still rent.
Second data point this week suggesting property is stirring up in the US. Early days, but probably a small glimmer of hope. I look at those adverts that show 200k for a big home and i wonder why people still rent.
A case of liquidity trap. USA banks are flashed with cash but are very reluctant to borrow to potential home owners. This is why home prices is still depress but rental rate is moving up fast in most states. The home mkt need to work its way thru the backlog of foreclosures before prices turn around. In the mean time, rental yield is relatively high in USA.:)
phantom_opera
21-12-11, 10:27
Seriously 2000-2010 marks the downturn of US, 2010-2020 you think US will be better off? Politics they are at its worst ever .... Wall Street are still as greedy as ever ... they are trying to tighten regulation for Wall Street ... gone are the days of fat bonus for investment banking
In China's long history, very rare a dynasty can last for 300y and maintain prosperity .. US is no exception ... rise and fall of great nations .. only accelerated due to technology / globalization
Hint: Jim Rogers already packed and left
Do you know how many Chinese children are using candles to study late at night in the poor Western Provinces ... how many American children have this kind of attitude... time will tell
rattydrama
21-12-11, 11:01
Second data point this week suggesting property is stirring up in the US. Early days, but probably a small glimmer of hope. I look at those adverts that show 200k for a big home and i wonder why people still rent.
might be they have no money to buy or they have to cash out thats why renting market is good. If US is building more as buying improves, then this is clear.
might be they have no money to buy or they have to cash out thats why renting market is good. If US is building more as buying improves, then this is clear.
If rental rises, they could be broke for an even longer period.
Seriously 2000-2010 marks the downturn of US, 2010-2020 you think US will be better off? Politics they are at its worst ever .... Wall Street are still as greedy as ever ... they are trying to tighten regulation for Wall Street ... gone are the days of fat bonus for investment banking
In China's long history, very rare a dynasty can last for 300y and maintain prosperity .. US is no exception ... rise and fall of great nations .. only accelerated due to technology / globalization
Hint: Jim Rogers already packed and left
Do you know how many Chinese children are using candles to study late at night in the poor Western Provinces ... how many American children have this kind of attitude... time will tell
China has so much money and gold. Their government is not willing to help the poor. Just look at the recent Guangzhou protests.
rattydrama
21-12-11, 12:15
If rental rises, they could be broke for an even longer period.
True, but this group generally without much savings, selling their houses could be the last resort if they are paying high mortgages.
You guys really believe in numbers from US ... lol
It is only an excuse for short covering
The "market" still believes it :D regardless of what I think.
phantom_opera
21-12-11, 15:02
The "market" still believes it :D regardless of what I think.
true, let's see market has conviction to break 12,200 resistance anytime soon ... I am pro-market as long as it either cheong or crash
true, let's see market has conviction to break 12,200 resistance anytime soon ... I am pro-market as long as it either cheong or crash
If it suddenly cheongs towards 12,800. There'll be a sudden short squeeze.
phantom_opera
21-12-11, 16:51
If it suddenly cheongs towards 12,800. There'll be a sudden short squeeze.
Quite unlikely as many people wait to offload real shares above 12,200 ...
do you notice that somehow the banking weighting in Dow is getting less and less nowadays, a crash in BAC/C/GS has very little effect on Dow ... so today's Dow of 12,200 very different from 2009 already ... it just means that certain sector of US Economy still doing ok e.g. IBM
Bill Gross thinks this Santa's rally won't last ... he is not perfect but i think he understands US more than everyone here :rolleyes:
Quite unlikely as many people wait to offload real shares above 12,200 ...
do you notice that somehow the banking weighting in Dow is getting less and less nowadays, a crash in BAC/C/GS has very little effect on Dow ... so today's Dow of 12,200 very different from 2009 already ... it just means that certain sector of US Economy still doing ok e.g. IBM
Bill Gross thinks this Santa's rally won't last ... he is not perfect but i think he understands US more than everyone here :rolleyes:
Bank stocks have bombed out. It's difficult for them to drag the index down by much but if they even rally up 50% due to liquidity squeeze, the index could shoot to 12,800 quite easily. Amdist all that, economic fundamentals remain unchanged. That's the enigma that most retail investors struggle to understand.
...due to liquidity squeeze, the index could shoot to 12,800 quite easily. Amdist all that, economic fundamentals remain unchanged. That's the enigma that most retail investors struggle to understand.
So have u taken a position to be ready to profit from it ? ;)
Almost all of my close friends are not doing anything. Th volatility is unprecedented, and fundamentals are almost irrelevant now.
Actually to be precise, some of us did do a few trades. Selling structured puts at high premium. So I do hope what you said is true :)
Contra some and take profit today.
So have u taken a position to be ready to profit from it ? ;)
Almost all of my close friends are not doing anything. Th volatility is unprecedented, and fundamentals are almost irrelevant now.
Actually to be precise, some of us did do a few trades. Selling structured puts at high premium. So I do hope what you said is true :)
I didn't do anything. Because this market as good as playing bacaraat, I give it a 50-50 chance of it going up or down by 700 points. I accept it as the rules of the current game and I hate to play 50-50 games. So I'm taking a long break from this market.
It's not really 50/50. Watch closely.:2cents:
May be I sold too early.
European stocks pared gains as the European Central Bank provided more loans to euro-area lenders than economists had predicted. Asian shares and U.S. index futures increased.
phantom_opera
21-12-11, 20:29
it is a news-driven market, buy on rumor, sell on facts, apparently yesterday's 300 point rally has nothing to do with positive US housing start, it is more to do with ECB lent out record amount of money at ultra low rate (1%) for 3y for many member banks ... kind of QE0.5 lol
But Dow futures hit the usual 12,200 resistance and reversed just now:
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/t?s=YMH12.CBT&lang=en-US®ion=US&width=300&height=180
phantom_opera
21-12-11, 20:59
ORCL poor result is something to do with fundamental :D .. premarket down 10% :doh:
Now is a good time to pick up a us properties. Of cos not anywhere in us, but go for top cities like NYC, SFO, LA etc
ECB first ever 3 year lending operation...
it's a liquidity russsshhhhh...
phantom_opera
21-12-11, 21:41
ECB first ever 3 year lending operation...
it's a liquidity russsshhhhh...
Santa Claus lending 645B @ 1% to the 500 banks ... on average each one gets 1b lol
Yea QE 0.5. 500bln not a small size. At least stabilizing banking sector for now.
I'm just wondering will some day ppl realize EU is actually not that bad... For crying out loud, Italy really to default ? It's totally a victim of "speculative" market force.
Yea QE 0.5. 500bln not a small size. At least stabilizing banking sector for now.
I'm just wondering will some day ppl realize EU is actually not that bad... For crying out loud, Italy really to default ? It's totally a victim of "speculative" market force.
It's all psychological. There will come a t e when market can't gt anymore negative, and decides to turn positive. And when sentiments change, the rally will be fast and furious.
shortist might worry on such news, imagining playing monopoly against a player who has unlimited access to the bank's money, how to lose? you end up having a couple of billions more flowing around the market stirring up some inflation somewhere in this world.
ikan bilis
21-12-11, 21:53
hur? 500bil for 3yrs ??... this $$ tsunami really got very long wavelength... it will drown you for 3 yrs... take cover first... :cutedoggy:
so maybe we can expect low interest rates from EU for the next 2 years?
phantom_opera
21-12-11, 21:57
Net flow only around 200B+ as some short terms loans are terminated / swapped
It is going to help the weaker banks to survive:
More than a dozen Italian banks, including top lenders UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo, tapped at least 49 billion euros of new three-year loans, according to data and banking sources.
However, it is no guarantee that these $$ will buy Italian garmen bond, 100+B of refinancing is required in Q1 2012 ...
Low rates for a few yrs down the road is a given.
Low rates for a few yrs down the road is a given.
it was for the US, now it's double chop and stamped that EU will follow suit. Surprising given Germany's typically hawkish stance.
ikan bilis
21-12-11, 22:05
new nintendo's mario brothers game.... => mario bros use printer to fight monsters... printed $$ notes shoot shoot shoot out from printer... :scared-4:
phantom_opera
21-12-11, 22:06
The euphoria is quickly killed by shock result from Oracle ... down 13% ... IT co with similar profile is also heavily sold e.g. IBM
Analysts have been too optimistic about NASDAQ earning
The euphoria is quickly killed by shock result from Oracle ... down 13% ... IT co with similar profile is also heavily sold e.g. IBM
Analysts have been too optimistic about NASDAQ earning
nasdaq has been holding up well in the recent selldown, not surprising that it is catching up on the selldown.
phantom_opera
21-12-11, 22:14
ORCL result and guidance has serious implication as it has global exposure and a powerful sales organization with clients across Fortune 500 ... poor result / guidance simply hinting at reduced IT spending worldwide going forward
I will be surprised if Dow can move any higher in December
devilplate
21-12-11, 23:22
It's not really 50/50. Watch closely.:2cents:
I only play when its 70-30;)
phantom_opera
22-12-11, 06:27
The Swiss franc fell sharply after Reuters reported that Switzerland's government was debating further measures to combat the strong franc, including capital controls and negative interest rates. Both are measures the country mulled earlier this year, with little follow-through.
Negative interest rates effectively charge investors for holding francs and franc-denominated assets, and could potentially be more potent than any action taken by the Swiss National Bank, which controls monetary policy.
:doh:
The Swiss franc fell sharply after Reuters reported that Switzerland's government was debating further measures to combat the strong franc, including capital controls and negative interest rates. Both are measures the country mulled earlier this year, with little follow-through.
Negative interest rates effectively charge investors for holding francs and franc-denominated assets, and could potentially be more potent than any action taken by the Swiss National Bank, which controls monetary policy.
:doh:
So they give me money when I take a loan with the bank? Mai tu liao!
devilplate
22-12-11, 07:51
So they give me money when I take a loan with the bank? Mai tu liao!
Not funny leh......:p
Not funny leh......:p
You can kaka borrow more mah. The more you borrow the more interest you receive.
phantom_opera
22-12-11, 07:59
So they give me money when I take a loan with the bank? Mai tu liao!
No la you pay them when open Swiss franc acct
Nothing to pay if I have no deposits. So just open a loan account with them?
devilplate
22-12-11, 08:01
Nothing to pay if I have no deposits. So just open a loan account with them?
Aiyo, i oredi said not funny lor
I'm trying to be sarcastic about this whole notion of negative interest rate.
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