View Full Version : How much drop do u expect in next 24 mths
true enough EU stronger countries and other asia economies will not let EU fail...
why? it is all about confidence of public at large ...ppl..a run on bank those days or could lead to a run on gahmen pension funds. When anyone hears of their country going bankrupt., human nature is naturally to head towards your pension savings or banks and withdraw all $$$. if rejected, riots and protests will kick in...those extremes you will probably see more increasingly in western part at the moment
like I see this in the west- interim measure to cool the heat but long term solutions still need to be in place
these measures will take time running the processes through the cabinets and parliaments
then you have the stronger EU economies demanding for more if lend helping hand to weaker economies. everything can nego but what's the price
i hope the happening in middle east is not intentionally blown out of proportion for a different agenda. war normally benefits certain economies
sad if that happens
just looked at URA transactions - still very low checked D11.
sellers are not budging on price to try luck..but buyers have better advantages and not taking the baits.
or maybe not..when market tightens....is it too late to jump through the window for seller and buyer?
let's see next 2 weeks before christmas break. western economies actions
pressure will build and climb stronger upwards after mid Jan nearing to lunar new year esp. in east asia.
the decline in prices are inevitable - resale market in private properties
forget the new launch in east - different market because of hdb dynamics and upgraders preference
but questions of how much and when? those who say prices will be up - i really cant see and understand the logic. look ard
been monitoring the asking psf versus transacted psf, although there's a time lag it is showing...
there may be plenty of investors but as i said before moment the shit hits the fence, they will take care of what's happening in their home country...or those who plan to abscond from home country. those would not show the real situation..
Private equity players smell once-in-50-years opportunities
The search is on for solid, performing assets in a distressed eurozone looking a lot like Asia 1997-98
By VIKRAM KHANNA
(SINGAPORE) Never waste a crisis - especially a big one. That's been the credo of many savvy investors throughout history. The current crisis in the eurozone is no exception.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/media/image/launched/2011-12-05/BT_IMAGES_VKEUROEQUITY.jpg (http://forums.condosingapore.com/)Eurozone stars: Pemberton is selling its story to potential investors to raise a US$1b fund to buy promising European assets. To begin with, the London firm is talking to institutions, SWFs and family investment offices in the Middle East, Singapore, Malaysia and South Korea. Although it has yet to reach its tipping point, some private equity investors are already diving in to sniff out deals.
'This is a once-in-50- years opportunity,' says Symon Drake-Brockman, managing partner at Pemberton Capital Advisors, a London-based private equity firm, which is about to launch special funds stuffed with assets cherry-picked from the wreckage of the eurozone crisis. Their first fund - to be called Pemberton Service Sector Fund One - is to be launched in January.
Mr Drake-Brockman, who ran ING's markets business in Asia from 1994-1999, is familiar with crisis investing; and the situation in the eurozone looks very deja vu.
'If you go back to the Asian crisis, in late 1997 and 1998, there were no buyers for anything in Asia,' he says in an interview with BT. 'But by 1999, a number of fantastic opportunities had emerged. Basically, many companies were forced to sell very good businesses or assets because they needed capital for their core businesses. There were opportunities you would never see in normal times.
'The same dynamic is playing out in the eurozone. From a value investor's perspective, the eurozone today is, in many ways, Asia 1997-98.'
He explains that in a pre-crisis boom - as in 1995-96 in Asia or 2006-07 in the West - the holder of the assets typically has the upper hand in any negotiation. But during a crisis, it is the one with the capital who drives the negotiation.
Mr Drake-Brockman is not talking about buying distressed assets: 'The trouble with distressed assets is you might end up buying crap. Yes, you can buy stocks of some eurozone banks in public markets at 30-40 per cent of book. But there's lots of speculation about future write-downs. Besides, markets may not come back anytime soon. I would certainly not want to punt on a bank in southern Europe right now.'
His company is interested only in solid, performing assets, he says. 'We buy only those that are clean. And we do not invest in anything unless we know the balance sheet of the company inside out.'
Where does he get these assets? A major source is banks - for example, the German Landesbanks, which lend to Germany's dynamic and highly profitable small and medium- sized enterprises, the companies that dominate the German economy.
'These banks are being forced to shrink their balance sheets,' says Mr Drake-Brockman. 'Facing the prospect of higher capital requirements, scaling back their balance sheets is one way to boost their core capital ratios. So, many of them are forced to sell assets they would not normally want to sell.'
The need for more capital is only one reason why eurozone banks are shrinking their loan books; some are forced to do so because they took state aid. 'Under EU rules, if Bank A takes state aid and it is competing with Bank B that did not take state aid, Bank A has to pay a penalty - and that means it has to shrink its balance sheet,' he explains.
In other cases, eurozone banks with overseas operations are cutting back their exposure abroad simply because they want to take money back to their home countries to shore up their core operations.
Pemberton Capital's strategy is to cherry-pick the loans on the banks' books. 'Some of them are high-quality loans to companies that have a return on equity of 30 per cent plus,' says Mr Drake-Brockman. 'We go through the balance sheets of every single company we look at.' Many of them are unlisted private companies, though some may be listed.
The strategy, he says, is to buy loans from several banks and then put them all into a portfolio. Later, either the whole portfolio can be sold to another buyer, or what can be listed from that portfolio is listed. Meanwhile, Pemberton's investors get dividends.
Banks aside, there are also pickings to be had from Europe's asset management industry, which is facing consolidation, according to Mr Drake-Brockman. He notes that in Europe, mutual funds have about US$37 trillion in assets under management (AUM), spread across some 35,000 funds. In comparison, the US mutual fund industry has about US$38 trillion in AUM spread across 7,000 funds. The much smaller average fund size in Europe is creating pressure to downsize, to reduce costs. This too presents an opportunity for private equity players to pick out parts of investment portfolios.
Pemberton also sees opportunity in the telecommunications sector, where the acquisition strategy is masterminded by Jean-Pierre Vandromme, the other managing partner of the firm and a former CEO of Golden Telecom in Russia.
He points out Europe has several relatively small, new telecom companies, which in recent years have been taking market share away from incumbents. Being small in a capital-intensive business, they can't tap the bond markets, so they are saddled with a lot of short-term debt. They too will be affected by European banks downsizing their loan books. Mr Vandromme explains: 'It's not easy for banks to shrink their exposure to, say, Daimler-Benz. But they can go to a small telco and say 'we have to cut your 20 million euro credit line to 10 million euros'. But that little telco really needs the 20 million euro credit line, to be able to expand its offerings. So there lies the opportunity: to buy and merge assets of smaller telcos.'
And there are some very good assets around, he adds. Some segments of the telecom markets being served by the smaller telcos are growing 20-25 per cent a year - such as VOIP services to SMEs, virtual mobile networks, managed data, and fibre to buildings. 'We believe we can create emerging market-sized returns out of this,' says Mr Vandromme.
Armed with their compelling story, the Pemberton partners are scouting around for investors to raise a US$1 billion fund to buy European assets. They are targeting institutions, sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and family investment offices in the Middle East, Singapore, Malaysia and South Korea, to begin with.
They would not disclose whom they met in Singapore, however. 'Let's just say we're talking to the obvious players you would expect to see,' says Mr Drake-Brockman.
The response has been 'extremely positive', he says. 'Investors recognise there are opportunities in the eurozone, but they're trying to analyse what vehicles they can use to capture those opportunities. We think we have one.'
What's more, with the eurozone crisis not about to be resolved anytime soon, Pemberton believes time is on its side. 'The beauty is, we are under no pressure to buy right now,' says Mr Vandromme. 'If we can't strike a deal we like, we just say: 'see you later'.'
ublished December 5, 2011http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
High-end home deals fewer this year: study
But share of non-PR foreigners in such sales are up, thanks partly to Chinese
By KALPANA RASHIWALA
(SINGAPORE) Transactions in Singapore's high-end residential market, such as upmarket apartments/condos in choice districts and bungalows on Sentosa Cove, have fallen this year, but non-permanent resident foreigners' share has gone up for both categories of properties, according to Savills Singapore.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/media/image/launched/2011-12-05/krforeign5A.jpg (http://forums.condosingapore.com/)
Analysts attribute the increase partly to mainland Chinese fleeing restrictions on property buying in their home market and instead parking their monies in Singapore's property market. As well, some investors may be inclined to escape the economic gloom in Western economies and to favour the relatively healthier economies in Asia. Singapore stands out as a property buying destination in Asia for its transparency, political stability and relative safety.
Savills' analysis found that in the first 11 months of this year, 1,285 caveats were lodged for apartments and condos in districts 1, 4, 9, 10 and 11 priced at least $2,000 per square foot of strata area - down 33 per cent from the same year-ago period. The figure for full-year 2010 was 2,156.
However, non-PRs' share of purchases of non-landed homes in these five districts priced at over $1,951 psf (or $21,000 per square metre) has increased from 28.4 per cent last year to 37.8 per cent in the first 11 months of 2011.
The latest figure surpasses the31.1 per cent in 2007 and 33.2 per cent in 2008 - during the earlier foreign buying frenzy. Savills' analysis, which was based on URA Realis caveats data as of Nov 30, also showed that on the total foreign buying pool (PRs and non-PRs combined), Indonesians have been the top buyers since 2007.
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/quoteTop.gif Traditionally Indonesians have been the predominant buyers of high-end apartments in Singapore. But recently, the Chinese and Indians have increased their presence in this segment, as wealth levels rise on the back of strong economic growth.
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/quoteBot.gif Their share of the total number of caveats (including purchases by Singaporeans and companies) edged up from 15.4 per cent in full-year 2010 to 16.4 per cent during Jan-Nov 2011. However, the 236 upmarket apartments/condos they have bought this year is about 35 per cent shy of the 363 units they acquired in full-year 2010.
On the other hand, the number of upmarket apartments picked up by mainland Chinese has risen from 136 for full-year 2010 to 170 in Jan-Nov 2011. Their share of total buying also doubled from 5.8 per cent to 11.8 per cent.
A longer-term comparison reflects a similar picture. The number of high-end apartments bought by Indonesians has roughly halved from 438 in 2007 to 236 in Jan-Nov 2011, while the number of caveats lodged by mainland Chinese has quadrupled from 43 to 170.
Indians - who did not even feature among the top five nationalities of foreign buyers in 2007 - were the fourth largest foreign buyers of high-end apartments in Jan-Nov 2011, with 31 caveats or a 2.2 per cent share of total purchases.
Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui observed that traditionally Indonesians have been the predominant buyers of high-end apartments in Singapore. But recently, the Chinese and Indians have increased their presence in this segment, as wealth levels rise on the back of strong economic growth.
As well, property buying curbs in China are driving some mainland Chinese to park monies in Singapore, he added. 'Overseas Chinese buyers are also finding that they fit hand-in-glove in Singapore because of the ethnic similarity. When they walk into a showflat here, they find sales people speaking to them in Mandarin, and sometimes even entertaining them with a nice Chilli crab dinner,' he quipped.
Over at Sentosa Cove (where foreigners don't need to be PRs to qualify to buy landed homes), the Chinese are the biggest foreign buyers (PRs and non-PRs combined) of bungalows. They purchased five of the total 20 bungalows transacted in Jan-Nov this year. Singaporeans bought eight bungalows.
As a whole, non-PR foreigners picked up seven bungalows in the upscale waterfront housing district in January-November 2011, giving them a 35 per cent share of total purchases, up from their 33.3 per cent share in full-year 2010.
Savills' analysis found that the average price of bungalows transacted on Sentosa Cove has risen 11.1 per cent from $1,910 psf on land area for full-year 2010 to $2,122 psf for January-November 2011. In absolute dollar quantum, the average price per bungalow transaction has appreciated 7.7 per cent from $17.1 million to $18.4 million. The total number of Sentosa Cove bungalows transacted has slipped from 54 last year to 20 in Jan-Nov 2011.
Steven Ming, executive director of Savills Prestige Homes, expects transaction activity in Singapore's high-end residential sector to remain subdued in the next few quarters against the backdrop of a turbulent global economy.
'But the market should continue to attract regional and global high net worth clientele interest, as they look for safe havens to store their wealth. Singapore is one of the two AAA-rated countries in Asia,' he added.
My observations:
1. The number of Singaporeans and PRs with this buying power have dropped (probably due to 60% LTV), and they could be targetting other districts with lower psf.
2. Due to MRT and developments (e.g. mega shopping malls with cinemas) in other districts, these traditional prime districts have lost their shine among Singaporeans and PRs.
3. More foreign buyers partly to more aggressive marketing by property agents and developers overseas.
Published December 6, 2011
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/c.gif
S'pore retains top spot in property investment survey
But, in surprising trend, Reits lose shine despite attractive yields
By MICHELLE TAN
(SINGAPORE) Singapore tops the chart once again in the Asia-Pacific region for its commercial real estate investment and development prospects in 2012, according to a survey jointly published by the Urban Land Institute (ULI) and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/media/image/launched/2011-12-06/tmre6.jpg (http://forums.condosingapore.com/)
Comparing Singapore's lead over Hong Kong - which has fallen out of the top 10 - ULI chief executive officer Patrick Phillips said: 'Singapore is optimising its position. It's a good place to invest for the future and also a good place to develop properties now, whereas Hong Kong is a very different story as it's difficult to develop.'
The veteran property expert also pointed out that properties in Hong Kong are increasingly viewed as being 'fully-priced', making the risk-reward profile of its real estate sector less compelling. Hence its slide in the investment rankings.
However, although Singapore has retained its lead in terms of future prospects, investors are seen to be increasingly risk averse and leaning towards core investments that typically have lower capital appreciation but 'strong solid' cash flows, such as commercial properties that tend to possess longer rental lock-ins.
Elaborating on the trend away from risk, Mr Phillips said: 'What is happening is a return to core investment strategies. People are focusing on the highest quality assets at the best markets with the least amount of risk. It's not quite a flight to quality but it's more of a transition towards less risky investment strategies.'
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/quoteTop.gif People are focusing on the highest quality assets at the best markets with the least amount of risk. It's not quite a flight to quality but it's more of a transition towards less risky investment strategies.
- Mr Phillips
http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/mnt/static/image/ax/quoteBot.gif But there has been one interesting development amid this growing attraction to 'safer' investment options.
Real estate investment trusts (Reits) seem to be losing their charm with the investment public, with many seeing significant declines in market capitalisation in the third quarter of 2011 despite offering attractive yields of about 6 per cent in this 'yield-starved' environment.
This is particularly surprising as locally-listed Reits have long been perceived as relatively low-risk products that offer decent cash flows. Moreover, with low interest rates expected to continue into 2012, things seem to be more positive than negative on the refinancing front for the sector, which was once a key concern.
Expressing surprise over this rising trend, Choo Eng Beng, real estate leader at PwC Singapore, noted that Singapore and Asian Reits continue to trade well below their net asset values despite possessing a portfolio of high quality assets, posing a 'puzzling' situation to many professional investors.
'We've gone from a glass half-full in 2011 to a glass half-empty. Many say we are in a twilight zone where something has got to give,' said Mr Choo.
At the macro level, the emergence of domestic capital is another key theme that is gaining traction in Singapore as well as the rest of Asia-Pacific.
Giving his take on the matter, Mr Phillips said: 'Local sources of capital are stepping up in a way they have never before. I think this bodes very well for the region because now when offshore capital markets are favourable, they can be accessed, but when they are not, the domestic capital sources will step up.'
That said, although cities such as Singapore and Jakarta are cited as prime examples of capital availability, the situation in other parts of the region - such as Australia, China, India and Hong Kong - is getting more challenging.
But a challenging environment does not mean the absence of good opportunities in the year ahead.
Notably, cities that are viewed by the survey respondents - more than 360 internationally renowned real estate professionals - to be attractive investment propositions going forward include the likes of Ho Chi Minh, Jakarta, Shanghai and Sydney.
What are the chances recession will be 10 year? Since cannot post in other thread, I ask here? Last 32 years got see b4 recession that last so long?
Recession sup post to flush out the lousy companies, companies come back more efficient , more lean n more profitable ?
Since business cycle is as always a cycle, y would it be down for 10 years? Furthermore in growing Asia? What u guys think?
Recession for 2 years already very bad Liao.... Usually last one year....
Recession for 2 years already very bad Liao.... Usually last one year....
recession is 2 quarters contraction right......
depression is 2 years contraction right...
if only last 1 year price hardly got time to correct much right.....
recession is 2 quarters contraction right......
depression is 2 years contraction right...
if only last 1 year price hardly got time to correct much right.....Technical recession is 2 continuous quarters of contraction. Anything more is a full recession... :scared-4:
Such thread must have feature to re vote.
yeah, i think the results will be more interesting during the re vote.
No need. Just call for another voting session so we have pre-measure readings to compare with post-measure readings... :D
devilplate
10-12-11, 11:04
Nid to hf 2 different poll
How much correction with cm5 alone: my vote will be 20%
how much correction gg forward.....well at least 20%.... if eu burst 40-50% ;)
How strange that people here are screaming collapse in property prices.....but the same people are paying 70K for COE each month for Cat 1 cars....validity(10yrs) x 9.9 = almost 700K for 99 years with guarantee losses once a car is bought......
a 1 million property would cost additional 30K if locals bought a 3rd one or foreigners an 100K ........divide by 9.9 = only 3K and 10K per 10 years.......
minority screams like babies
majority rationalize and check ....experts' views on drop in prices. so these bunch of ppl breathe and live on property market, are totally out on their views?
everyone agrees that there will be correction on prices?
questions are how bad will the impact be and for how long?
Geylang OKT
11-12-11, 20:27
The consensus among the property agency bosses is a 20% drop for pte properties and for HDB a 10% to 15% drop in 2012. :p
And everyone knows these property folks are the most bullish of the lot! :scared-4: :doh: :banghead:
Geylang OKT
11-12-11, 20:29
Nid to hf 2 different poll
How much correction with cm5 alone: my vote will be 20%
how much correction gg forward.....well at least 20%.... if eu burst 40-50% ;)
60% to 70% easily :D
The consensus among the property agency bosses is a 20% drop for pte properties and for HDB a 10% to 15% drop in 2012. :p
And everyone knows these property folks are the most bullish of the lot! :scared-4: :doh: :banghead:
They are adding fuel, so that sellers will panick and firesale and vultures come in to scoop up the bargains.
They are adding fuel, so that sellers will panick and firesale and vultures come in to scoop up the bargains.
agreed.. panick owners, please dont sell at discount, to benefit the buyers.
but who know if anyone secretly dump before you, you might be the last one standing holding!! die more ugly
Geylang OKT
11-12-11, 21:28
agreed.. panick owners, please dont sell at discount, to benefit the buyers.
but who know if anyone secretly dump before you, you might be the last one standing holding!! die more ugly
you are so evil :D :D :D
you are so evil :D :D :D
nope, im being honest.
when pple ask u to buy, they are secretly selling.
*human nature. u die, ur own business.
nope, im being honest.
when pple ask u to buy, they are secretly selling.
*human nature. u die, ur own business.
your friends all so jia luk ah
your friends all so jia luk ah
i got some agent frds, say flamingo valley 517sqft abt 750k.. abt there price.
good buy!!!
each for himself, human nature
not all frds are suckers, i filtered out sucker frds long ago
blackjack21trader
13-12-11, 10:45
landed will drop the most. previously only 5 years ago ,a landed terrace is equivalent to a small private condo in CCR which is about S$700psf. Now it is asking for more than S$1200psf. This group should drop the most, likely more than 30% if lucky.
landed will drop the most. previously only 5 years ago ,a landed terrace is equivalent to a small private condo in CCR which is about S$700psf. Now it is asking for more than S$1200psf. This group should drop the most, likely more than 30% if lucky.
what abt D 9,10.. for a gd size 2 bedder 900sqft min..??
blackjack21trader
13-12-11, 10:50
what abt D 9,10.. for a gd size 2 bedder 900sqft min..??
CCR private condo should drop max 10%. CCR and OCR private condos should be max 5%. landed will be the most hit. You know why?
1) Now developers cannot buy landed in congested lane for high density build liao.
2) CCR prices will dictate the price of this group as in previous cycles. The recent cycle is really out of proportion- that is the imbalance here, of about 30% overdone in landed.
blackjack21trader
13-12-11, 10:52
we should see a sudden stop in landed enbloc. developers will turn to older condos which are not condemned ones. now many choices and ample land banks on hand. With the missing 18%-20% foreign speculators, developers have a lot of time on hand to wait.
devilplate
13-12-11, 10:53
CCR private condo should drop max 10%. CCR and OCR private condos should be max 5%. landed will be the most hit. You know why?
1) Now developers cannot buy landed in congested lane for high density build liao.
2) CCR prices will dictate the price of this group as in previous cycles. The recent cycle is really out of proportion- that is the imbalance here, of about 30% overdone in landed.
yeah
which landed estate u eyeing? whahahaha
blackjack21trader
13-12-11, 10:54
come 2012, we will see many acquistion & mergers aka makan of small developers by the huge ones.
blackjack21trader
13-12-11, 10:55
yeah
which landed estate u eyeing? whahahaha
D10 & D11, what about you?
come 2012, we will see many acquistion & mergers aka makan of small developers by the huge ones.
For all parties, developers, individual sellers and buyers, the watchword for 2012 will be "STAYING POWER". ;)
phantom_opera
13-12-11, 11:12
Kübler-Ross model
DABDA, include:
Denial — "I feel fine."; "This can't be happening, not to me."
Anger — "Why me? It's not fair!"; "How can this happen to me?"; '"Who is to blame?"
Bargaining — "May be I can still sell off with minimal loss..."
Depression — "I'm so sad, why bother with anything?";
Acceptance — "It's going to be okay. Just hold"
phantom_opera
13-12-11, 11:26
The Asian twin pillars are badly hit this time:
Shanghai textile/machinery firms down 3.86% 纺织机械板块下跌3.86%
The Indian rupee sank to a record low of 53.21 per dollar making loans in USD harder to repay for Indian firms
blackjack21trader
13-12-11, 18:43
Kübler-Ross model
DABDA, include:
Denial — "I feel fine."; "This can't be happening, not to me."
Anger — "Why me? It's not fair!"; "How can this happen to me?"; '"Who is to blame?"
Bargaining — "May be I can still sell off with minimal loss..."
Depression — "I'm so sad, why bother with anything?";
Acceptance — "It's going to be okay. Just hold"
very true... i am at stage 2 now and is doing something about it :)
blackjack21trader
13-12-11, 18:44
For all parties, developers, individual sellers and buyers, the watchword for 2012 will be "STAYING POWER". ;)
yes indeed, brother lordhawk! you are very intelligent and wise to see this !
blackjack21trader
13-12-11, 18:45
CCR private condo should drop max 10%. CCR and OCR private condos should be max 5%. landed will be the most hit. You know why?
1) Now developers cannot buy landed in congested lane for high density build liao.
2) CCR prices will dictate the price of this group as in previous cycles. The recent cycle is really out of proportion- that is the imbalance here, of about 30% overdone in landed.
A reminder bump- no more landed enblocking. I think what basic really refer to on the 50% drop is this group.
A reminder bump- no more landed enblocking. I think what basic really refer to on the 50% drop is this group.
errr..... you do know that a LOT of landed areas originally cannot enbloc anyway....
I think it is only those "special" plots with a plot ratio that are affected by the new ruling.
you must get your facts straight first.
Most people buy landed not for "enbloc".... because it is just not possible for most plots of land.
blackjack21trader
13-12-11, 18:58
errr..... you do know that a LOT of landed areas originally cannot enbloc anyway....
I think it is only those "special" plots with a plot ratio that are affected by the new ruling.
you must get your facts straight first.
Most people buy landed not for "enbloc".... because it is just not possible for most plots of land.
Oic...thanks for telling me.
Then let me remind you guys that last time when I was a property agent to sell one GCB, it took something like 10 years hor.
WOAHAHAHAAHAHAHHA
blackjack21trader
13-12-11, 19:01
errr..... you do know that a LOT of landed areas originally cannot enbloc anyway....
I think it is only those "special" plots with a plot ratio that are affected by the new ruling.
you must get your facts straight first.
Most people buy landed not for "enbloc".... because it is just not possible for most plots of land.
Thanks for ur enlightenment. Go and take a look at Telok Kurau Lor A to H. Developers have been combining smaller plots into bigger plots.STOP Them now !
WOAHAHAHAAHAHHAHA
blackjack21trader
13-12-11, 19:03
50% to 100% landed drop Maybe ( maybe only lah ) coming your way !
Geylang OKT
13-12-11, 21:16
crash pain! pain! :D :D :D
1 more nail to the coffin....
no more QE3...
FED rate hike next year.....
Fed May Revise Zero-Rate Vow as Bond-Buying Need Fades
By Joshua Zumbrun - Dec 13, 2011 1:00 PM GMT+0800
Enlarge image http://www.bloomberg.com/image/isZ2gG6QRUGE.jpg (http://www.bloomberg.com/photo/u-s-federal-reserve-chairman-ben-s-bernanke-/131559.html)
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. Photographer: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
The Federal Reserve (http://topics.bloomberg.com/federal-reserve/) will probably revise its pledge to keep interest rates close to zero through mid-2013 as the need for large scale asset purchases diminishes, according to economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
The Fed will alter the interest rate (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=FDTR:IND) commitment before June, according to 64 percent of economists surveyed, with 51 percent saying the central bank will abandon the option of a third round of buying bonds, or so-called QE3.
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke (http://topics.bloomberg.com/ben-s.-bernanke/) and his policy-making colleagues plan to meet today to discuss the outlook for an economy that has strengthened since their November meeting, lowering the jobless rate to 8.6 percent from 9.1 percent. Altering the low- rate commitment would give central bankers the flexibility to adjust monetary policy without resorting to a third round of large-scale bond purchases, also known as quantitative easing.
“The base case is that QE3 probably will not unfold,” said Sam Bullard, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte (http://topics.bloomberg.com/charlotte/), North Carolina (http://topics.bloomberg.com/north-carolina/). “We’ve got some momentum here. The data that’s been coming in has been stronger than expected and prior months’ data have been revised up.”
Before the Fed’s November gathering, 69 percent of economists in a Bloomberg News survey said they believed the Fed would begin more purchases, as did 16 of the 21 primary dealers of U.S. government securities in a survey last month.
The Federal Open Market Committee (http://topics.bloomberg.com/federal-open-market-committee/) is set to release a statement at around 2:15 p.m. Washington time, following its last scheduled meeting of the year.
one buddy from HK just spoke to me
sellers dumping esp. those with few units - reduce leverage
10-15% discount
low number of transactions
1 more nail to the coffin....
no more QE3...
FED rate hike next year.....
thanks for the good news :cheers4:
BJ21T y u vote for 30% cut lost and get out? Do u actually practice that discipline?
just read some property ads..
either the agents are trying their luck or the owners are pushing their luck
10-15% above last transacted ura prices
last 2 months no resale market somemore
is it a tan ku ku(wait long long) case?
Geylang OKT
13-12-11, 22:18
just read some property ads..
either the agents are trying their luck or the owners are pushing their luck
10-15% above last transacted ura prices
last 2 months no resale market somemore
is it a tan ku ku(wait long long) case?
The sellers are really pushing their luck :doh:
Buyers, please offer 50% below their asking prices :D
devilplate
13-12-11, 22:33
thanks for the good news :cheers4:
Gd news indeed.....shows tat US is recovering?
Print more qe only means bubble grow bigger
Gd news indeed.....shows tat US is recovering?
Print more qe only means bubble grow bigger
Maybe it is recovering under the radar. All that euro shit and Dow can stay above 12k? Hsi got whack until blue black.
just read some property ads..
either the agents are trying their luck or the owners are pushing their luck
10-15% above last transacted ura prices
last 2 months no resale market somemore
is it a tan ku ku(wait long long) case?I also observed in some of the properties and noticed that the price actually went up recently, higher than in Oct and Nov. Wow! These agents have that naive idea that by raising price and then offering to give up to 3% or 4% discount will entice potential buyers? Oh yes its a tan ku ku case. :D
I also observed in some of the properties and noticed that the price actually went up recently, higher than in Oct and Nov. Wow! These agents have that naive idea that by raising price and then offering to give up to 3% or 4% discount will entice potential buyers? Oh yes its a tan ku ku case. :D
Asking prices are mostly maintained or gone up slightly for those near TOP.
Asking prices are mostly maintained or gone up slightly for those near TOP.This is just sad... Parc Vera already absorbing the 3% for buyers who are affected.. but PV is not going to TOP yet.. :cheers6:
blackjack21trader
14-12-11, 07:00
BJ21T y u vote for 30% cut lost and get out? Do u actually practice that discipline?
For stocks I will practise that. But for property investment, so far never encounter a 30% drop.
However, if that really happens in the near future, I will definately cut la..since from 10 years ago, the price had already appreciated more than 30% already. It is good to take some money off the table.
Anyway, this will not apply to me liao because I already unloaded all except for own stay properties.
Good Luck, brother DaytonaSS :)
blackjack21trader
14-12-11, 07:01
This is just sad... Parc Vera already absorbing the 3% for buyers who are affected.. but PV is not going to TOP yet.. :cheers6:
See lah...like that sure drop one la...landed will drop the most.
blackjack21trader
14-12-11, 07:03
Asking prices are mostly maintained or gone up slightly for those near TOP.
still early days mah, bro :) In our market, it only needs 3 kancheong spiders. One to start, one to panic and one to action.:banghead:
For stocks I will practise that. But for property investment, so far never encounter a 30% drop.
However, if that really happens in the near future, I will definately cut la..since from 10 years ago, the price had already appreciated more than 30% already. It is good to take some money off the table.
Anyway, this will not apply to me liao because I already unloaded all except for own stay properties.
Good Luck, brother DaytonaSS :)
whahahahahahaaha.........
blackjack21trader
14-12-11, 07:04
whahahahahahaaha.........
u are amazing... u come out from nowhere anytime of the day....u must be stalking every single post in this forum 24/7. :doh:
phantom_opera
14-12-11, 07:36
Judging fr developer action it seems high ％ of new sales buyer already has two properties
See lah...like that sure drop one la...landed will drop the most.
Those landed with MM zone restrictions will drop the most. Overnight the enbloc demand was wiped out about 1 month ago.
I heard from yesterday news that container terminals will be expanded in Pasir Panjang and *Changi* (new). Landed in these areas may hold their prices.
Kovan ran up quite a bit in anticipation that it will follow the telok kurau model. Reality sets in there.
errr..... you do know that a LOT of landed areas originally cannot enbloc anyway....
I think it is only those "special" plots with a plot ratio that are affected by the new ruling.
you must get your facts straight first.
Most people buy landed not for "enbloc".... because it is just not possible for most plots of land.
This really shows how much he knows about landed properties.
lol
devilplate
14-12-11, 10:00
all ppty will not be spared
all ppty will not be spared
i agree. but for me condos will plunge the most.
look out for D9,10,11
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45656701
Fed Repeats Rate Pledge, Hints More Easing Possible
Published: Tuesday, 13 Dec 2011 | 2:24 PM ET
The Federal Reserve on Tuesday left monetary policy on hold but said financial market turbulence posed threats to economic growth, leaving the door open to further easing next year.
....
phantom_opera
14-12-11, 11:26
Plunge normally preceded by low volume, perhaps all sellers are waiting for next land bid result, next OCR land bid is Bedok South near Tanah Merah MRT?
The December sales figures any guess? 488?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45656701
Fed Repeats Rate Pledge, Hints More Easing Possible
Published: Tuesday, 13 Dec 2011 | 2:24 PM ET
The Federal Reserve on Tuesday left monetary policy on hold but said financial market turbulence posed threats to economic growth, leaving the door open to further easing next year.
....
One report say they relooking at their pledge, then this report say they are open, getting mixed signals.
Business Times - 14 Dec 2011
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/mnt/media/image/launched/2011-12-14/hlinterest.jpg
Taking stock of interest rates
As demand for funds continues to outpace deposits, spreads - including mortgage spreads - may rise, reports TEH HOOI LING
WHILE Singapore interest rates are generally expected to remain low next year, there might be a chance that mortgage rates will rise as banks begin to charge higher spreads should demand for funds continue to outpace deposits, economists Executive Money surveyed said.
Rising mortgage rates, if that comes to pass, will be yet another piece of bad news to hit property owners and investors in Singapore following a slew of tightening measures introduced by the government this year.
Most of the forecasts for the three- month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate, or 3M Sibor, ranged from 0.38 per cent to 0.5 per cent.
Barclays puts the probability of Sibor falling below 0.5 per cent next year at 75 per cent. 'With Europe now likely to embark on quantitative easing on a larger scale to fight recession, we expect that could accentuate the liquidity excesses around the world,' said its economist Leong Wai Ho. 'Flush liquidity conditions worldwide, coupled with the perception of Singapore as a safe haven, could put pressure on money market rates here to move even lower.'
While the base case scenario of most economists is that short-term rates would stay low, there are possible events that could trigger interest rates to spike.
OCBC's Selena Ling said: 'Our base case scenario is that short-term interest rates will probably be fairly well-anchored, with the 3M Sibor likely to stick to a 10 to 15 basis point range from the current 0.39 per cent fixing. Our end-2012 forecast for 3M Sibor is 0.49 per cent. We put 50 per cent probability on this scenario.'
This is predicated on the following:
No double-dip recession for the US, but a sub-par growth with a stagnant labour market. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) sticks to its very low rates for an extended period of time, at least until mid-2013;
Meanwhile, Europe continues to 'muddle through' with no disorderly default by any of the financially weaker countries, and policymakers bite the bullet and adopt the necessary policy measures and economic reforms;
China decelerates but there's no hard landing (defined as GDP growth falling to below 7 per cent) and it manages its policy risks well. The risks are well-known - property markets, the informal banking sector (for example, Wenzhou) and local government financing vehicles.
'Essentially no policy mistakes,' said Ms Ling, 'else the downside caveat is risk of global recession or financial crisis.'
She reckons there is at least a 25 per cent probability attached to two tail risks which could cause funding costs to spike. One, the worst-case scenario materialises in the eurozone, and we get a Lehman-type event. Two, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) eases monetary policy again in April 2012 in an environment where global risk-off sentiment dominates.
This could cause some capital outflows that could temporarily impact domestic liquidity and drive short- term Singapore dollar rates higher, she said.
The possible easing of the MAS policy, via a shift to neutral (i.e. zero per cent appreciation) stance, was also flagged by Citi and UOB.
Citi's economist Kit Wei Zheng said 3M Sibor could rise to the 0.6 to 0.7 per cent range, depending on how MAS policy and USD Sibor rates evolve.
UOB's Chow Penn Nee noted that swap offer rates - which are more sensitive to market movements - may move up if the MAS shifts its monetary policy stance to neutral from the current gradual appreciation stance.
The probability of MAS shifting to a neutral stance is growing, she said, given the much slower domestic growth outlook for 2012 - 2.5 per cent based on UOB's projection - and continuing uncertainties and weakness in the external economy. Also, inflation is moderating.
But even if short-term rates stay low, mortgage rates could increase gradually by 0.5 to 1 per cent over the next two to three years, said Bank of America Merrill Lynch's economist Chua Hak Bin.
'We expect the banks to charge higher spreads (including mortgage spreads) as the loan-to-deposit ratio has climbed to a five-year high of 86 per cent. The ratio was 68 per cent in April 2007. The bargaining position of banks increases as the loan-to-deposit ratio rises,' he said.
While loan growth going forward will probably cool, given the slowing economy and strict property measures in Singapore, growth in demand for loans may continue to exceed deposit growth for quite some time, Mr Chua said.
MAS reported that domestic banking non-bank loans grew 31.1 per cent year on year in the third quarter of this year. This compares with deposit growth of just 12 per cent.
'China's monetary tightening and European banks' deleveraging have introduced opportunities and gaps for Singapore banks to step in,' said Mr Chua.
While rising interest rates are a possibility, OCBC Bank's Ms Ling reckons that 'the bigger headwind for property investors could be the recent slew of property curbs which have cooled market sentiment'.
In a report yesterday on the impact of additional stamp duties on property purchases in Singapore, DMG & Partners' chief regional strategist Craig Irvine said: 'We are clearly reminded of cooling measures applied in early 1996. After that policy intervention, residential prices in Singapore fell by over 40 per cent over the next three years.
'Then, as now, the government had acted strongly to dampen speculative activity after a particularly 'frothy' period. This time, the measures primarily (and rightly, in our view) target foreign liquidity, which has become a key driver of incremental demand.
'We think the impact will go beyond the foreign money to overall sentiment.'
Copyright © 2010 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.
blackjack21trader
14-12-11, 15:11
Those landed with MM zone restrictions will drop the most. Overnight the enbloc demand was wiped out about 1 month ago.
I heard from yesterday news that container terminals will be expanded in Pasir Panjang and *Changi* (new). Landed in these areas may hold their prices.
now we have a sensible brother here who did his homeworks! :)
devilplate
14-12-11, 15:13
now we have a sensible brother here who did his homeworks! :)
Container expand....landed nearby gain meh? I tot the opposite?
blackjack21trader
14-12-11, 15:27
Container expand....landed nearby gain meh? I tot the opposite?
true also.
In hk investors are deleveraging
Bitten badly before. They are faster? What about us?
In banks risks have a price$ which is interest rate. So if risks are perceived to be higher for countries or corporates/ companies interest rate should go up up UP.....
Survival of fittest. Expect some big corporates to go down chapter 11 next Q1 2012 like airlines retail .....obvious our gahmen is prepared ....singtel fund raising exercise.....standby to acquire.
Good move to increase Singapore coffer
my buddy in hong kong told that the agents are wising the sellers. so sellers run and they view current property market in china - not that great
agents usual la - market up also ask you to sell
market slow like now = worst....push enough transactions at least can cover advertising costs & petrol
phantom_opera
14-12-11, 17:27
MILAN (Reuters) - Italy paid a euro era record yield of 6.47 percent to sell five-year paper at its first auction of longer-term debt after the EU moved towards greater fiscal integration at last week's summit, but failed to convince markets it can solve the debt crisis.
The average yield at Wednesday's sale compares with an auction rate of 6.29 percent Italy paid a month ago, which was also a euro lifetime record high.
Rome sold 3 billion euros (2.5 billion pounds) of the September 2016 BTP bond, the top of an unusually small range of 2 billion to 3 billion euros for the sale.
Italy has trimmed the size of its auctions in reaction to market pressure but it will have to step up issuance in coming months if it is to meet a gross funding goal of around 440 billion euros next year.
singapore government bonds/those bonds issued by singtel/hdb should pay lower yield but still better than FDs..
probably better to invest in bonds.
back to topic - would not italian corporates be borrowing at cost similar to their government in general.
ferrari/lambo up for sale? it may be able to save the country
rattydrama
14-12-11, 17:59
container moving out....
moving out to where?
rattydrama
14-12-11, 18:05
singapore government bonds/those bonds issued by singtel/hdb should pay lower yield but still better than FDs..
probably better to invest in bonds.
back to topic - would not italian corporates be borrowing at cost similar to their government in general.
ferrari/lambo up for sale? it may be able to save the country
last week...Porche in swiss selling 73k swiss frac or about 100kSGD and delivery is half yr later...
rattydrama
14-12-11, 18:19
i agree. but for me condos will plunge the most.
look out for D9,10,11
i hope to see the plunge but seriously not very sure.
for those who bou in 2009 or earlier, chao chao 30% gain or some even 100% gain. a 30% drop is nothing. some already took profits to have a balance portfolio so not in hurry to sell but in fact will buy! LOL
for those who bou after the cooling measure, downpayment is 30-40% if they are not first time buyer, meaning they are also not poor.
for those who are paying just 20%, it is for their own roof.
speculators already stop buying since jan 2011.
so how many people left to fire sale their property?
i think the main driver of 30% drop will be retrenchment where pple are not consuming. a 30% drop could only last for 1Q - hit and run. When the time comes, our gov will surely re-introdce job credit, re-training, create more jobs (ie. train more teachers) and release more contract to upgrade our infrastructure.
last week...Porche in swiss selling 73k swiss frac or about 100kSGD and delivery is half yr later...
waiting period same globally for porsche...germany still ok
italian marques ...sell the companies lambo/ferrari to bail the country
india /china may be interested.
The sellers are really pushing their luck :doh:
Buyers, please offer 50% below their asking prices :D
Bigger gap, so dun waste time. Govt less revenue. Developer dun sell. Agents eat grass. Banks dun loan. Economy stall. All go fly kite. :D
gahmen plenty reserves.
rich with alot of properties less richer but still rich...not full glass but prices drop now 3/4 glass full...
middle class can afford better
least better family - gahmen subsidies more lah
foreigners more choices to rent because more supply
PRs go back and build big houses back home..India rupee weaker ..more rupees when bring home. alot of buddies all changing SG$ into rupees
Judging fr developer action it seems high ％ of new sales buyer already has two propertiesCannot dismiss the fact that there are also many with single or no properties but anxiously waiting for prices to tumble big time... :cheers6:
many vultures with plenty of cash waiting by the side
singaporeans without property...would have gone through hdb public process. shld have new hdb or resale hdb.
PRs - my buddy was quoting PRs as ball-less. one foot here one foot there. he quoted should abolish such class for those being PRs too long. why? PR is considered probation period...once comfortable decide to give up and convert. his ball-less analogy - no loyalty to country...his analogy probably a bit harsh.
fence sitter probably - best of both world with great view at the fence but heart will be in their own motherland
many vultures with plenty of cash waiting by the side
singaporeans without property...would have gone through hdb public process. shld have new hdb or resale hdb.
PRs - my buddy was quoting PRs as ball-less. one foot here one foot there. he quoted should abolish such class for those being PRs too long. why? PR is considered probation period...once comfortable decide to give up and convert. his ball-less analogy - no loyalty to country...his analogy probably a bit harsh.
fence sitter probably - best of both world with great view at the fence but heart will be in their own motherlandDifferent PRs have different stories to tell lah... cannot have blanket description to cover all. My friend also PR but not sitting on fence. He won't take citizenship but also won't go back to his country for now. He got married here and setting up his family and business here... not fence sitter... :cheers5:
Different PRs have different stories to tell lah... cannot have blanket description to cover all. My friend also PR but not sitting on fence. He won't take citizenship but also won't go back to his country for now. He got married here and setting up his family and business here... not fence sitter... :cheers5:
he has not decided where to retire....once he finds one he would move everything out from the country
one foot here one foot there..looking to set his other foot somewhere else LOL
but in general look around. Heart is neither here nor there...sorry if you are a PR. no offence but my take to you. Decide as you will confuse the kids. In schools unless international, will they sing Majulah Singapura. Please ask your friend not to take PR for the sake of business or backdoor in event his country goes south
he has not decided where to retire....once he finds one he would move everything out from the country
one foot here one foot there..looking to set his other foot somewhere else LOL
but in general look around. Heart is neither here nor there...sorry if you are a PR. no offence but my take to you. Decide as you will confuse the kids. In schools unless international, will they sing Majulah Singapura. Please ask your friend not to take PR for the sake of business or backdoor in event his country goes southHahaha... think its more a case of not confronting the issue yet coz like what you said, he's not decided where to retire... he's still in 30s lah... stayed here since 13 (I think). Me citizen here lah.. no offence taken... Lol! :o
phantom_opera
14-12-11, 21:15
tonight will be quite exciting, big move in EURUSD as well as oil ...EURUSD will close at which level tonight? 1.293 anyone?
Geylang OKT
14-12-11, 21:19
all ppty will not be spared
definitely not spared!
phantom_opera
14-12-11, 21:28
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/t?s=CLF12.NYM&lang=en-US®ion=US&width=300&height=180
oil
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=EURUSD%3dX&t=5d&q=&l=&z=l&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US®ion=US
EURUSD
Gd news indeed.....shows tat US is recovering?
Print more qe only means bubble grow bigger
U hit the nail on the head. That kind of QE only create more liquidity n inflate the bubble bigger. Y can't they print $$$ n use it on infrastructure building n let the $$$ pass thru the system, create employment.
I rather they don't print
U hit the nail on the head. That kind of QE only create more liquidity n inflate the bubble bigger. Y can't they print $$$ n use it on infrastructure building n let the $$$ pass thru the system, create employment.
I rather they don't print
I believe e US government officials r being held hostage by e banks. So they wld rather save e banks tt helped them in their earlier campaigns.
I believe e US government officials r being held hostage by e banks. So they wld rather save e banks tt helped them in their earlier campaigns.Not so straight forward lah... Obama will save himself for re-election next year 1st... Lol! ;)
you see further changes in landscape
the other day i was reading an article where US companies/corporates are moving operations back from China
unions cycle ...those days strong now weak as no jobs...
china now infant stage on union...later stronger and stronger.
if US plans for that in next 5 years, china has to grow GDP internally
makes sense
developers are great in posting positive outlook driving up sentiments.
just checking with singaporean/PR buddies...all have 1 property and investment properties and waiting to place $$ in new projects
when i asked what if interest rate goes up and EMI increases to 2 times....most would say would cover using cashflow but ultimately sell to realize profits.....
Am just pondering on demand forces as quoted by most forumers and developers
demand defined as demanding condos for own stay/ demanding condos for investment.. Confused with the word "demand"
What would forumers do...
1) if rent yield is not sufficient to cover EMI as LTV low at 60%..no problem as only lose out on opportunity costs
2) those with LTV at 80% - rare
would fellow forumers have different views
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