Property price is coming down fast

[basic]

many 28-38 yrs old borrow S$1-3mil this round to buy property, this group never go thru' 1997 asia financial crisis, think property will never come doen, even if come down will go back up fast.......

very nice....these are the group of people will suffer this round....we will never see today price again in next 15 yrs if LUCKY, it should be 20-25 yrs to see current price again based on my model, let see....

If they are retrenched in between, then force sell or bankrupt, very very likely...even if they are not retrenched, life will be super tough to pay back loan as pay cut will sure kick in due to recession....they will lead a miserable life of paying DEBT for whole life, depress, stress & feel no meaning to live, family broken....they deserve it due to their greediness....

market needs such weak holders, then can make money, then there is market, then market can go on, just like US foreclosure, those sold & make the money, left those with big debt, their poprerty kena auction away eventually.....

A good govt will burst the bubble as early as possible, our greedy govt hang on will cause more to su.ck in, govt themselves are buyers & collector, then make spore sink back to 3rd world country once attacked by foreign funds due to spore gigantic property bubble.....once carry trade reverse totally, US$ raise....that is it....S$ back to $1.3 again, it will trigger as fear accumulating now & rush for US$ safe haven again, whether is war or recession or depression or OWS......

no bailout from govt in 1997, no bailout this round too, if any bailout, govt will be out in 2016.....time for them to burst it now OR the burst will be worse later, 3 banks already have housing loan of >60% to their total loan, 300% higher than China yet china property already plunging.....market force will do it, not me, time will tell....good luck....

[basic]

2 day ago I said here once STI go below 2750, then we will see STI back to 2500 fast, let see can happen today or next week, if not has to wait a while....

once global debt trigger STI to go below 2000, then my job is done as I don't have to post anything many will jump in here like they are god know market will crash much earlier like me eg. liar king will say he predicted 14/1/2011, that is tot.....up to them, shameless.......& they will takeover from me to shally outout market crash everyday....all become bears, the most bull in earlier this thread turn BEARs......they will slap their own face.....

will still reply those nice one PM me on what to do....still have some time before we see all these but time flies, it will come sooner than everyone think...now water is calm before the perfect storm is here.....

[Allthepies]

im not sure what the actual situation is liked, but strangely with all the bad news coming from china property market, some ultra rich people which basic coined as "fools" have just raised their stakes in a china property company! a strange world indeed.me still scratching head why these ultra rich buy now instead of waiting for the company to fall another 50% in a year or two.

[basic]

for carry trade to reverse....look out for US$ index, if cross 80, then will see US$ flies up strongly.....
now US$ index at 78.5, quite close to 80, possible to cross next week if US budget deficit has a big cut of US$1.5trillion.....let see....

[basic]

earlier I expect 150,000 job cut in global financial sector, now they claim 200,000, more than I expect.....more retrenchment coming....
problem is not job cut, is banks shrink they business, loan....they are going to recover most loan, call back most money loan out to meet Besel III requiremnt.....very nice....this will push global interest rate higher, no money liao, all chase for money, dump all asset & everything to raie funds...


環球金融業裁員20萬

事實上，歐洲銀行業已減少參與區內政府發債，並導致國債孳息不斷攀升，可能對經濟造成惡性循環。國際金融協會（IIF）警告，如果銀行紛紛保留資本以達資本標準，將導致歐元區信貸收縮5%，並出現類似○九年的嚴重衰退。
收縮業務規模亦是銀行業保留實力途徑之一。據彭博社統計，截至周三止，環球金融業今年裁員近20萬，已超越○九年全年的17.4萬。
消息透露，瑞信結束台灣定息收入部門，會削減約20個職位，亦放棄在台灣發展私人銀行業務。另有報道指，法巴繼周三宣布裁減1,400個企業及投資銀行職位後，昨內部削減279個資產管理職位。

[basic]

HK #1 newspaper reported below, worse than what I posted here....Beijing & many cities in China, those completed property needs 10 yrs to digest....to complete selling & utilised....10 yrs of inventory & stocks of property....very very nice....haha.....let see how property price going to drop in next 10 yrs, like Japan down 80-90%, why not, with 1 kid policy, every couple will inherit 2-4 property from their parent & grandparent....excess is unlimited....haha......


京瓊樓盤積壓恐需十年消化

在持續調控下，內地樓市成交萎縮不再是新鮮事，而日積月累的庫存壓力亦逐漸加大，多個受限購影響的城市所積壓的供應量更是驚人，其中北京、海南目前的庫存，市場估計需要約十年時間才可消化

[proud owner]

http://hereisthecity.com/2011/11/16/its-a-bloodbath-thousands-more-bank-jobs-axed/

[basic]

received this.......... "For you info, my friends told me local developers are going give discount between 10-25% anytimes from now as discreet because every developers now are high mode rushing to launch weekly new project or 2nd phase."

[proud owner]

received this.......... "For you info, my friends told me local developers are going give discount between 10-25% anytimes from now as discreet because every developers now are high mode rushing to launch weekly new project or 2nd phase."

in singapore or china ?

[devilplate]

developers giving up to 20% discount.....

[Eastboy]

developers giving up to 20% discount.....
FEO lor, what's new?

Anyway some people think that by spouting nonsense on this forum will create panic....LOL....they think we high sch kids is it?

[jeaprp]

received this.......... "For you info, my friends told me local developers are going give discount between 10-25% anytimes from now as discreet because every developers now are high mode rushing to launch weekly new project or 2nd phase."
Think Yr discreet may be referring to shopping vouchers, reno discount etc.
but they did not cut price outrightly,
so caveat lodged may still be same price.
Con job, man.
My guess only, no reference to any project ok.

[marktkt22]

The greed of banker will have to be repay someday.
No more head u win, tail i lost ...




so now is NY time Nov 17, 9am....OWS will start their action soon, tenth of thousands will walk to NY Stock Exchange today.....
They have no choice....hope they succeed....will probably see violence due to the crowd & police force....they are doing good thing for the world & human being....god bless them, they will succeed eventually....

[basic]

2 day ago I said here once STI go below 2750, then we will see STI back to 2500 fast, let see can happen today or next week, if not has to wait a while....

once global debt trigger STI to go below 2000, then my job is done as I don't have to post anything many will jump in here like they are god know market will crash much earlier like me eg. liar king will say he predicted 14/1/2011, that is tot.....up to them, shameless.......& they will takeover from me to shally outout market crash everyday....all become bears, the most bull in earlier this thread turn BEARs......they will slap their own face.....

will still reply those nice one PM me on what to do....still have some time before we see all these but time flies, it will come sooner than everyone think...now water is calm before the perfect storm is here.....




shout what you like, just don't slap your own face later.....
STI just breaks 2750.....let see how it moves from here in next 1-2 weeks....
just a matter of time....:)

[devilplate]

shout what you like, just don't slap your own face later.....
STI just breaks 2750.....let see how it moves from here in next 1-2 weeks....
just a matter of time....:)

shout all you want....

time will tell

[basic]

shout all you want....

time will tell


hahahaha...time will tell now huh...lol lol....:):)

[gn108]

Pure gold ..no wonder this is the most active thread...
Not alot of useful discussion though...

[basic]

Think Yr discreet may be referring to shopping vouchers, reno discount etc.
but they did not cut price outrightly,
so caveat lodged may still be same price.
Con job, man.
My guess only, no reference to any project ok.



better for them to run early & fast, last one to run will get nothing....
be realistic....look at China & HK, price keep going down...once fund recall, dump all asset at any price, if price here is still good they will dump here 1st before HK & China.....hongkies react before fund take action.....
Europe is super tight now....anytime when runs, US$ shoot up, nobody buy illiquid property instead, all dump to run road..... :)

[Worsty]

Think Yr discreet may be referring to shopping vouchers, reno discount etc.
but they did not cut price outrightly,
so caveat lodged may still be same price.
Con job, man.
My guess only, no reference to any project ok.


Would the caveat lodged be the gross price before the reno discounts/ vouchers etc?

For my case, i'm only allowed to loan from the bank 80% of the net amount. Not only that, this affect how much i'm allowed to take out from my OA for the 20%. Have to come up with more cash upfront to make up for the shortfall in valuation (80% of the voucher value) before having the 'locked' up CPF of the same amount released in the next batch of payment.

Or did i 'tio pian' by CPF and the bank in the treatment of vouchers?

[devilplate]

hahahaha...time will tell now huh...lol lol....:):)

now only shows u r panicky and desperate

only u willing to put in the effort to cut and paste diligently....LOL

nothing new to cut and paste, u simply repeat old news....LOL so funny

previously, geylang OKT is the most bearish guy in this forum and he dun even bother to cut and paste like wat u did...LOL

[devilplate]

Pure gold ..no wonder this is the most active thread...
Not alot of useful discussion though...

this thread is not meant for discussion in the first place

its a one way thread lah......must agree and follow TS, if not u r deemed as fools....LOL

[devilplate]

better for them to run early & fast, last one to run will get nothing....
be realistic....look at China & HK, price keep going down...once fund recall, dump all asset at any price, if price here is still good they will dump here 1st before HK & China.....hongkies react before fund take action.....
Europe is super tight now....anytime when runs, US$ shoot up, nobody buy illiquid property instead, all dump to run road..... :)

developer oredi giving up to 20% discount

[basic]

now only shows u r panicky and desperate

only u willing to put in the effort to cut and paste diligently....LOL

nothing new to cut and paste, u simply repeat old news....LOL so funny

previously, geylang OKT is the most bearish guy in this forum and he dun even bother to cut and paste like wat u did...LOL



haha...big liar, talk so much huh, you sooooo worry....hahaha....:):)

[basic]

this thread is not meant for discussion in the first place

its a one way thread lah......must agree and follow TS, if not u r deemed as fools....LOL

so are you one?....:)

[devilplate]

Would the caveat lodged be the gross price before the reno discounts/ vouchers etc?

For my case, i'm only allowed to loan from the bank 80% of the net amount. Not only that, this affect how much i'm allowed to take out from my OA for the 20%. Have to come up with more cash upfront to make up for the shortfall in valuation (80% of the voucher value) before having the 'locked' up CPF of the same amount released in the next batch of payment.

Or did i 'tio pian' by CPF and the bank in the treatment of vouchers?

furniture vouchers = cash rebate

i checked wif projects giving furniture rebates b4.....the purchase px tats gona be caveated is still the px u bot before the rebate BUT u can only take up to 80 or 60% loan of the purchase px after less the rebate

[yaozong7]

Hi hi Mr Basic,

I have been following your threads here and I just realise the same info is posted in CNA forum by "Yang".

Isn't it a bit tiring to post the same thing on both threads?

[devilplate]

so are you one?....:)

TS is the biggest fool without knowing it himself....:D

time will tell:D

[devilplate]

Hi hi Mr Basic,

I have been following your threads here and I just realise the same info is posted in CNA forum by "Yang".

Isn't it a bit tiring to post the same thing on both threads?

it just further affirms tat he is panicky and desperate

[devilplate]

haha...big liar, talk so much huh, you sooooo worry....hahaha....:):)

u r the most worrying and panicky bear....LOL

a Liar calls another liar! whahaha....desperado:D

time will tell:D

[jeaprp]

Would the caveat lodged be the gross price before the reno discounts/ vouchers etc?

For my case, i'm only allowed to loan from the bank 80% of the net amount. Not only that, this affect how much i'm allowed to take out from my OA for the 20%. Have to come up with more cash upfront to make up for the shortfall in valuation (80% of the voucher value) before having the 'locked' up CPF of the same amount released in the next batch of payment.

Or did i 'tio pian' by CPF and the bank in the treatment of vouchers?

Those discount will not be considered. that's why is discreet.
Otherwise the caveat will show a lower transacted price.
The developer very smart lor. lower pr without ppl knowing,
only the ones that bought. haha

[basic]

TS is the biggest fool without knowing it himself....:D

time will tell:D


liar king, try to twist now......:)

[devilplate]

liar king, try to twist now......:)

u r the bestest twister....:D

[Eastboy]

Basic will be very happy to read this:

Housing market set for prolonged downturn: Daiwa
04:45 AM Nov 18, 2011
SINGAPORE - The housing market in Singapore is heading for a prolonged downturn and overall private home prices are forecast to fall between 22 and 26 per cent in the next three years, Daiwa Research said. "We believe the residential property market could remain depressed for several years, triggered initially by a likely forthcoming gross domestic product slowdown (in 2012) and lingering global economic uncertainty," it said.
From late next year, Daiwa said, structural issues such as the rapid build-up in unsold inventory in the primary market and vacant rental units will take centre stage and keep home prices and rents in check for several years.
The mass-market segment will hold up slightly better than high-end properties, supported by better affordability and the resilience in the resale prices of Housing and Development Board flats, Daiwa said.
The house has downgraded its view of Singapore's property sector to "Negative" from "Neutral", adding that "it is hard for us to see the developer shares outperforming the Straits Times Index over the next six months" despite their underperformance in the year to date. DOW JONES
URL http://www.todayonline.com/Business/Property/EDC111118-0000050/Housing-market-set-for-prolonged-downturn--Daiwa

[Worsty]

furniture vouchers = cash rebate

i checked wif projects giving furniture rebates b4.....the purchase px tats gona be caveated is still the px u bot before the rebate BUT u can only take up to 80 or 60% loan of the purchase px after less the rebate

Ah...okay. Something new i wouldn't know if not for you experienced home buyers.

Thanks!

[basic]

u r the bestest twister....:D

how to beat liar king....king, you know....:):)

[devilplate]

Those discount will not be considered. that's why is discreet.
Otherwise the caveat will show a lower transacted price.
The developer very smart lor. lower pr without ppl knowing,
only the ones that bought. haha

furniture rebate is openly advertised by agents and documenented...so i dont tink its even discreet so to speak.....

discreet wud be like secret under table cash rebate, possibly to submit chq to nego px etc......oredi got projects allowed to negotiate the px since last yr.....

its logical for the purchase px to be caveated b4 rebate.....bcoz the rebate got terms and condition to be met.....rebate will only be given upon TOP to the first original buyer and its not transferable

[devilplate]

how to beat liar king....king, you know....:):)

u only know how to cut and paste and bullshyt .....wat else u know? LOL

[gn108]

I stand corrected ...I also learn something new.


Ah...okay. Something new i wouldn't know if not for you experienced home buyers.

Thanks!

[basic]

u only know how to cut and paste and bullshyt .....wat else u know? LOL


you know nut, that is why you don't understand anything....:):)

[devilplate]

you know nut, that is why you don't understand anything....:):)

u r the biggest NUT

whahaha:D

[basic]

u r the biggest NUT

whahaha:D


liar king becomes PARROT....hahahaha.....:)

[devilplate]

liar king becomes PARROT....hahahaha.....:)

ok lah...enuff of my fun today on u liao.....:D :D :D

[basic]

ok lah...enuff of my fun today on u liao.....:D :D :D
I have fun with my stupid panic parrot today.....:)

[gn108]

Will all these name calling ...just how many investment properties do you guys have? 1 to 2, 3 to 5 or more than 5?

I reckon leverage and quantity matters in how we manage risk - similar to Equities/FX.

[devilplate]

I have fun with my stupid panic parrot today.....:)

parrot in disguise?:D :D :D

[SpinCity]

I want I want! Don't need to down 50%, genuine down 10% I will buy! But must be prime location, high floor and good facing lah! :D

Hi hi, teddybear, do you mind naming a few developments that you will buy if you can get 10% discounts?

[devilplate]

Will all these name calling ...just how many investment properties do you guys have? 1 to 2, 3 to 5 or more than 5?

I reckon leverage and quantity matters in how we manage risk - similar to Equities/FX.

doesnt matter how many ppty u haf

u nvr answer my question too

perhaps u wana answer now?

wats the % of your total portfolio are on ppty(both local and overseas)

[devilplate]

Hi hi, teddybear, do you mind naming a few developments that you will buy if you can get 10% discounts?

teddy mentioned b4 he loves paterson area

[SpinCity]

teddy mentioned b4 he loves paterson area

Paterson area may have rubbish according to his standard mah, that's why need him to name a few so I may help lor

[basic]

Paterson area may have rubbish according to his standard mah, that's why need him to name a few so I may help lor


deal with rubbish get rubbish....
wasting time only.....:)

[gn108]

I'm very conservative by your standards....

20% cash, 30% shares (more into REITS/Pref sh for yield), 50% into a few properties. Very little debt though ...very low leverage.


doesnt matter how many ppty u haf

u nvr answer my question too

perhaps u wana answer now?

wats the % of your total portfolio are on ppty(both local and overseas)

[amk]

A bloomberg article today says it expects "4 biggest cities in china will register a MASSIVE drop of 0.3% in October" ( ok i added the word "massive" :cool: )

Note this is the usual bloomberg analyst poll before official data. The official data is out tomorrow.

Now in this thread some one has been posting prices in china already dropped by 20 or 30%. we will see how true it is tomorrow. :cool:


The official china property px data for Oct is out. 33 out of 70 cities recorded a drop; Beijing price unchanged ; the BIGGEST drop is in Wenzhou , a massive 4.6% ! "more than 10 times the average drop for the cities that register a drop", so it means the avrage drop is less than 0.5%.

The biggest liar here, what do you have to say ? :tongue3:

[thomastansb]

Ignore him la. He can't even tell us where he got that 76k TOP units in 2-3 years from.



The official china property px data for Oct is out. 33 out of 70 cities recorded a drop; Beijing price unchanged ; the BIGGEST drop is in Wenzhou , a massive 4.6% ! "more than 10 times the average drop for the cities that register a drop", so it means the avrage drop is less than 0.5%.

The biggest liar here, what do you have to say ? :tongue3:

[basic]

Ignore him la. He can't even tell us where he got that 76k TOP units in 2-3 years from.


already copy URA website for you....
ignore me, you can get lost from my thread...camp here day & night just show that you are so worry of property price plunging, worry or panic or stressful, price will still drop >50% in next 2-3 yrs.....




why property will crash, all information already in this thread, read thru' it, you will know....already started, from China to HK to Spore, already too late to get out now....tons of sellers out there, nobody buy ILLIQUID property now....haha......:)

[gn108]

Here we go again ...

[amk]

Ignore him la. He can't even tell us where he got that 76k TOP units in 2-3 years from.

I am ignoring him. The post is for ppl like Spin City, who is still not convinced this guy's only purpose is to spread rumor. This forum is a mature place where valuable information and opinions are exchanged and discussed. But we must not tolerate this place being used as a breeding ground for malicious rumors and false market informations. Opinion is opinion, fact is fact. The TS is turning this into yet another notorious China Internet site, where fake news are everywhere !

[basic]

many 28-38 yrs old borrow S$1-3mil this round to buy property, this group never go thru' 1997 asia financial crisis, think property will never come doen, even if come down will go back up fast.......

very nice....these are the group of people will suffer this round....we will never see today price again in next 15 yrs if LUCKY, it should be 20-25 yrs to see current price again based on my model, let see....

If they are retrenched in between, then force sell or bankrupt, very very likely...even if they are not retrenched, life will be super tough to pay back loan as pay cut will sure kick in due to recession....they will lead a miserable life of paying DEBT for whole life, depress, stress & feel no meaning to live, family broken....they deserve it due to their greediness....

market needs such weak holders, then can make money, then there is market, then market can go on, just like US foreclosure, those sold & make the money, left those with big debt, their poprerty kena auction away eventually.....

A good govt will burst the bubble as early as possible, our greedy govt hang on will cause more to su.ck in, govt themselves are buyers & collector, then make spore sink back to 3rd world country once attacked by foreign funds due to spore gigantic property bubble.....once carry trade reverse totally, US$ raise....that is it....S$ back to $1.3 again, it will trigger as fear accumulating now & rush for US$ safe haven again, whether is war or recession or depression or OWS......

no bailout from govt in 1997, no bailout this round too, if any bailout, govt will be out in 2016.....time for them to burst it now OR the burst will be worse later, 3 local banks already have housing loan of >60% to their total loan, 300% higher than China yet china property already plunging.....market force will do it, not me, time will tell....good luck....






those big housing loan owner....let them be....a good lesson learn, 1 in his lifetime...if he is above 40, his life gone case liao, no more chance in his life to fight back, pay debt for the rest of his life, that is all.....
nobody wants this way, but market is like that, trap naive & weak holder, profit from them...but some lesson is too expensive, especially property, highly leverage & super high risk, look at US & Japan, you know....
ILLIQUID....super hard to run now unless willing to lose everything & cut lost instead of holding DEBT for life.... :):):):)

[amk]

The official china property px data for Oct is out. 33 out of 70 cities recorded a drop; Beijing price unchanged ; the BIGGEST drop is in Wenzhou , a massive 4.6% ! "more than 10 times the average drop for the cities that register a drop", so it means the avrage drop is less than 0.5%.

The biggest liar here, what do you have to say ? :tongue3:

(and he is trying to drown this post again..)

[basic]

2 day ago I said here once STI go below 2750, then we will see STI back to 2500 fast, let see can happen today or next week, if not has to wait a while....

once global debt trigger STI to go below 2000, then my job is done as I don't have to post anything many will jump in here like they are god know market will crash much earlier like me eg. liar king will say he predicted 14/1/2011, timing is totally out.....up to them, shameless .......& they will takeover from me to shally outout market crash everyday....all become bears, the most bull in earlier this thread turn BEARs......they will slap their own face.....

will still reply those nice one PM me on what to do....still have some time before we see all these but time flies, it will come sooner than everyone think...now water is calm before the perfect storm is here.....




haha....all these people buy property buy till worry, stressful, panic, cannot sleep & eat...you are over-committed yourself....
easy lah...whatever will be will be....bankrupt or family broken...face it...you have to responsible to your own act.....
of course you can act now....when price tumble down like Cosco from $8 to $2, alreday too late, by then can only regret & sit all pile of DEBT......that makes the difference between a successor & born loser......

[basic]

Here we go again ...


another worry one....:):)

[amk]

The official china property px data for Oct is out. 33 out of 70 cities recorded a drop; Beijing price unchanged ; the BIGGEST drop is in Wenzhou , a massive 4.6% ! "more than 10 times the average drop for the cities that register a drop", so it means the avrage drop is less than 0.5%.

The biggest liar here, what do you have to say ? :tongue3:

(and he is trying to drown this post again..)

[basic]

The official china property px data for Oct is out. 33 out of 70 cities recorded a drop; Beijing price unchanged ; the BIGGEST drop is in Wenzhou , a massive 4.6% ! "more than 10 times the average drop for the cities that register a drop", so it means the avrage drop is less than 0.5%.

The biggest liar here, what do you have to say ? :tongue3:

(and he is trying to drown this post again..)


this is my thread, I need to drown my thread??...only rubbish bulls so worry everyday camp in my thread & post nonsense to drown my postings....

go ahead & buy 1 now if you can, I don't think you are affordable....

whatever my posting is all from china govt website, all screen thru', not only in internet, discussed by govt people in CCTV, CBN......china porperty market is clear, china govt signal is clear, that is why all developers are dumping now....

you want to challenge data in my posting, we can go lawyer firm to make a bet...amount, you state....:):)

[basic]

2 day ago I said here once STI go below 2750, then we will see STI back to 2500 fast, let see can happen today or next week, if not has to wait a while....

once global debt trigger STI to go below 2000, then my job is done as I don't have to post anything many will jump in here like they are god know market will crash much earlier like me eg. liar king will say he predicted 14/1/2011, that is tot.....up to them, shameless.......& they will takeover from me to shally outout market crash everyday....all become bears, the most bull in earlier this thread turn BEARs......they will slap their own face.....

will still reply those nice one PM me on what to do....still have some time before we see all these but time flies, it will come sooner than everyone think...now water is calm before the perfect storm is here.....



this morning, BB trying so hard to support at this level, STI 2750, they know once this level break convincingly, it will move back to 2500....if more bad news after that...it will go below 2000...that is it...by then no need me to post here, tons of people will convert & shout here for me....
don't worry, still have some time based on my timeline...but getting very closed now....
US$ index, once break 80, that is it.....all funds will be recall & carry trade unwinding fully....

[Worsty]

this is my thread, I need to drown my thread??...only rubbish bulls so worry everyday camp in my thread & post nonsense to drown my postings....

go ahead & buy 1 now if you can, I don't think you are affordable....

whatever my posting is all from china govt website, all screen thru', not only in internet, discussed by govt people in CCTV, CBN......china porperty market is clear, china govt signal is clear, that is why all developers are dumping now....

you want to challenge data in my posting, we can go lawyer firm to make a bet...amount, you state....:):)
Your 76k example is about units in pipeline not to TOP. I just bought a unit in 1 Aug. I say this unit will not TOP in 1095 days (I give you max of your estimation and counting from today and not from date of your intial posting date).

You want to challenge that the unit will be ready (get TOP) by then?

[amk]

The official china property px data for Oct is out. 33 out of 70 cities recorded a drop; Beijing price unchanged ; the BIGGEST drop is in Wenzhou , a massive 4.6% ! "more than 10 times the average drop for the cities that register a drop", so it means the avrage drop is less than 0.5%.

The biggest liar here, what do you have to say ? :tongue3:

(and he is trying to drown this post again..)

There is no 20% crash of China pty market in Oct. This guy is caught lying and fabricating rumours, again, :cool: and see how he reacts.

Whoever still feels sympathetic for him should wake up.

[basic]

Your 76k example is about units in pipeline not to TOP. I just bought a unit in 1 Aug. I say this unit will not TOP in 1095 days (I give you max of your estimation and counting from today and not from date of your intial posting date).

You want to challenge that the unit will be ready by then?


hold tight tight to your Aug 1 purchased...come back here to repent in 1-2 yrs time......hahaha....another 1.......:):)

[jeaprp]

this is my thread, I need to drown my thread??...only rubbish bulls so worry everyday camp in my thread & post nonsense to drown my postings....

go ahead & buy 1 now if you can, I don't think you are affordable....

whatever my posting is all from china govt website, all screen thru', not only in internet, discussed by govt people in CCTV, CBN......china porperty market is clear, china govt signal is clear, that is why all developers are dumping now....

you want to challenge data in my posting, we can go lawyer firm to make a bet...amount, you state....:):)

Aiyoh basic, no need to be so serious lah, get lawyer.
this is just a forum to TCSS, exchange views, post nice pics.
Life is already so hard, y be so serious.
:cool:

[basic]

There is no 20% crash of China pty market in Oct. This guy is caught lying and fabricating rumours, again, :cool: and see how he reacts.

Whoever still feels sympathetic for him should wake up.



no need to shout here...forumers know who is liar...fact is all there, you just make yourself a fool here.....:):)

[SpinCity]

I am ignoring him. The post is for ppl like Spin City, who is still not convinced this guy's only purpose is to spread rumor. This forum is a mature place where valuable information and opinions are exchanged and discussed. But we must not tolerate this place being used as a breeding ground for malicious rumors and false market informations. Opinion is opinion, fact is fact. The TS is turning this into yet another notorious China Internet site, where fake news are everywhere !

Thanks bro. To me Basic's posts are generally right in direction but the numbers may be incorrect, that why I said the information he provided is not "totally" lie, but can be exaggerating
As for China property market, I just had a trip to a few tier 1 & 2 cities in China recently, and also talked to some investors/fanciers for my business venture, at the same time visited a few showflats
Frankly, the Bloomberg number does not reflect the real market situation completely. My impression is, showflats are deadly empty. Developers of those completed or under construction (with certain % of the units sold) projects do not publicly announce price cut, but always say the price is negotiable, and can help with tax records to satisfy the regulatory requirement. Although I didn't make an offer, my sense is that 10% discount shall not be a problem at the moment.
Also quite a few financiers, private and government-linked, have already completely withdraw fund from property market.
I have been bullish on China property for long time and am still vested in China. However, I believe this time the government really want to put its hand on the market to prevent riot. Am considering exit

[gn108]

I got lawyer friend ...can leave your stakes with him...his first name is David....

[basic]

Aiyoh basic, no need to be so serious lah, get lawyer.
this is just a forum to TCSS, exchange views, post nice pics.
Life is already so hard, y be so serious.
:cool:

he wants to give money to me, just take....
who is the one started? go to them, don't come to me...
they shouted 1st....you pick me...haha...I don't care lah....

look at market today....getting more interesting & closer....stock, gold, Euro, oil, CDS, commodity $....all moving accordingly.....:):)

[gn108]

This is informative ...I reckon China is so big and their info gathering mechanism is not that developed/enforced that being on the ground is paramount to understanding the situation.

Good post - thanks.


Thanks bro. To me Basic's posts are generally right in direction but the numbers may be incorrect, that why I said the information he provided is not "totally" lie, but can be exaggerating
As for China property market, I just had a trip to a few tier 1 & 2 cities in China recently, and also talked to some investors/fanciers for my business venture, at the same time visited a few showflats
Frankly, the Bloomberg number does not reflect the real market situation completely. My impression is, showflats are deadly empty. Developers of those completed or under construction (with certain % of the units sold) projects do not publicly announce price cut, but always say the price is negotiable, and can help with tax records to satisfy the regulatory requirement. Although I didn't make an offer, my sense is that 10% discount shall not be a problem at the moment.
Also quite a few financiers, private and government-linked, have already completely withdraw fund from property market.
I have been bullish on China property for long time and am still vested in China. However, I believe this time the government really want to put its hand on the market to prevent riot. Am considering exit

[Worsty]

hold tight tight to your Aug 1 purchased...come back here to repent in 1-2 yrs time......hahaha....another 1.......:):)

No la, if you take up my challenge, then we wager the remaining mortgage la. Price correct 50% also you fork up.

The challenge is on the integrity of your data. At this juncture, you're saying units purchased today can TOP in 2-3 years and count towards the number of supplies leading to oversupply of housing. I'm giving you chance, it's not something that i purchase today but already a few months past. That's a discount of 164 days. Almost 1/2 a year extra advantage given to you.

[basic]

Thanks bro. To me Basic's posts are generally right in direction but the numbers may be incorrect, that why I said the information he provided is not "totally" lie, but can be exaggerating
As for China property market, I just had a trip to a few tier 1 & 2 cities in China recently, and also talked to some investors/fanciers for my business venture, at the same time visited a few showflats
Frankly, the Bloomberg number does not reflect the real market situation completely. My impression is, showflats are deadly empty. Developers of those completed or under construction (with certain % of the units sold) projects do not publicly announce price cut, but always say the price is negotiable, and can help with tax records to satisfy the regulatory requirement. Although I didn't make an offer, my sense is that 10% discount shall not be a problem at the moment.
Also quite a few financiers, private and government-linked, have already completely withdraw fund from property market.
I have been bullish on China property for long time and am still vested in China. However, I believe this time the government really want to put its hand on the market to prevent riot. Am considering exit

my forecast & predicted number is my prediction...exagerate or not time will tell, till now, this is all I can say here, detailed will not be shared with forumers here....just give you a general direction to help you.....
official data or copy report...from official, all china paper & TV station said accordingly....I have spent 1.5 month in China in last 2 months....it's all fact....
relax lah, weather is so nice in china now...go holiday, leaves just turn yelllow & red now, later will botak liao....good food, shopping, drinks....haha...:)

[samuelk]

haha....all these people buy property buy till worry, stressful, panic, cannot sleep & eat...you are over-committed yourself....
easy lah...whatever will be will be....bankrupt or family broken...face it...you have to responsible to your own act.....
of course you can act now....when price tumble down like Cosco from $8 to $2, alreday too late, by then can only regret & sit all pile of DEBT......that makes the difference between a successor & born loser......

Bro .. The people here may not be appreciative of your vast knowledge and experience . Maybe u should try to start one thread at mycarforum.com u probably get a group of like minded people to have a healthy discussion

[teddybear]

I mind hahaha!


Hi hi, teddybear, do you mind naming a few developments that you will buy if you can get 10% discounts?

[avo7007]

all funds will be recall & carry trade unwinding fully....

During QE1 and QE2, Nouriel Roubini was shouting about the dangers of USD carry trade. Nobody listened. Looks like his prediction might be coming true afterall.:doh:


Since March there has been a massive rally in all sorts of risky assets – equities, oil, energy and commodity prices – a narrowing of high-yield and high-grade credit spreads, and an even bigger rally in emerging market asset classes (their stocks, bonds and currencies). At the same time, the dollar has weakened sharply, while government bond yields have gently increased but stayed low and stable.

This recovery in risky assets is in part driven by better economic fundamentals. We avoided a near depression and financial sector meltdown with a massive monetary, fiscal stimulus and bank bail-outs. Whether the recovery is V-shaped, as consensus believes, or U-shaped and anaemic as I have argued, asset prices should be moving gradually higher.
But while the US and global economy have begun a modest recovery, asset prices have gone through the roof since March in a major and synchronised rally. While asset prices were falling sharply in 2008, when the dollar was rallying, they have recovered sharply since March while the dollar is tanking. Risky asset prices have risen too much, too soon and too fast compared with macroeconomic fundamentals. So what is behind this massive rally? Certainly it has been helped by a wave of liquidity from near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing. But a more important factor fuelling this asset bubble is the weakness of the US dollar, driven by the mother of all carry trades. The US dollar has become the major funding currency of carry trades as the Fed has kept interest rates on hold and is expected to do so for a long time. Investors who are shorting the US dollar to buy on a highly leveraged basis higher-yielding assets and other global assets are not just borrowing at zero interest rates in dollar terms; they are borrowing at very negative interest rates – as low as negative 10 or 20 per cent annualised – as the fall in the US dollar leads to massive capital gains on short dollar positions.
Let us sum up: traders are borrowing at negative 20 per cent rates to invest on a highly leveraged basis on a mass of risky global assets that are rising in price due to excess liquidity and a massive carry trade. Every investor who plays this risky game looks like a genius – even if they are just riding a huge bubble financed by a large negative cost of borrowing – as the total returns have been in the 50-70 per cent range since March.
People’s sense of the value at risk (VAR) of their aggregate portfolios ought, instead, to have been increasing due to a rising correlation of the risks between different asset classes, all of which are driven by this common monetary policy and the carry trade. In effect, it has become one big common trade – you short the dollar to buy any global risky assets.
Yet, at the same time, the perceived riskiness of individual asset classes is declining as volatility is diminished due to the Fed’s policy of buying everything in sight – witness its proposed $1,800bn (£1,000bn, €1,200bn) purchase of Treasuries, mortgage- backed securities (bonds guaranteed by a government-sponsored enterprise such as Fannie Mae) and agency debt. By effectively reducing the volatility of individual asset classes, making them behave the same way, there is now little diversification across markets – the VAR again looks low.
So the combined effect of the Fed policy of a zero Fed funds rate, quantitative easing and massive purchase of long-term debt instruments is seemingly making the world safe – for now – for the mother of all carry trades and mother of all highly leveraged global asset bubbles.
While this policy feeds the global asset bubble it is also feeding a new US asset bubble. Easy money, quantitative easing, credit easing and massive inflows of capital into the US via an accumulation of forex reserves by foreign central banks makes US fiscal deficits easier to fund and feeds the US equity and credit bubble. Finally, a weak dollar is good for US equities as it may lead to higher growth and makes the foreign currency profits of US corporations abroad greater in dollar terms.
The reckless US policy that is feeding these carry trades is forcing other countries to follow its easy monetary policy. Near-zero policy rates and quantitative easing were already in place in the UK, eurozone, Japan, Sweden and other advanced economies, but the dollar weakness is making this global monetary easing worse. Central banks in Asia and Latin America are worried about dollar weakness and are aggressively intervening to stop excessive currency appreciation. This is keeping short-term rates lower than is desirable. Central banks may also be forced to lower interest rates through domestic open market operations. Some central banks, concerned about the hot money driving up their currencies, as in Brazil, are imposing controls on capital inflows. Either way, the carry trade bubble will get worse: if there is no forex intervention and foreign currencies appreciate, the negative borrowing cost of the carry trade becomes more negative. If intervention or open market operations control currency appreciation, the ensuing domestic monetary easing feeds an asset bubble in these economies. So the perfectly correlated bubble across all global asset classes gets bigger by the day.
But one day this bubble will burst, leading to the biggest co-ordinated asset bust ever: if factors lead the dollar to reverse and suddenly appreciate – as was seen in previous reversals, such as the yen-funded carry trade – the leveraged carry trade will have to be suddenly closed as investors cover their dollar shorts. A stampede will occur as closing long leveraged risky asset positions across all asset classes funded by dollar shorts triggers a co-ordinated collapse of all those risky assets – equities, commodities, emerging market asset classes and credit instruments.
Why will these carry trades unravel? First, the dollar cannot fall to zero and at some point it will stabilise; when that happens the cost of borrowing in dollars will suddenly become zero, rather than highly negative, and the riskiness of a reversal of dollar movements would induce many to cover their shorts. Second, the Fed cannot suppress volatility forever – its $1,800bn purchase plan will be over by next spring. Third, if US growth surprises on the upside in the third and fourth quarters, markets may start to expect a Fed tightening to come sooner, not later. Fourth, there could be a flight from risk prompted by fear of a double dip recession or geopolitical risks, such as a military confrontation between the US/Israel and Iran. As in 2008, when such a rise in risk aversion was associated with a sharp appreciation of the dollar, as investors sought the safety of US Treasuries, this renewed risk aversion would trigger a dollar rally at a time when huge short dollar positions will have to be closed.
This unraveling may not occur for a while, as easy money and excessive global liquidity can push asset prices higher for a while. But the longer and bigger the carry trades and the larger the asset bubble, the bigger will be the ensuing asset bubble crash. The Fed and other policymakers seem unaware of the monster bubble they are creating. The longer they remain blind, the harder the markets will fall.
The writer is a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business and chairman of Roubini Global Economics

[basic]

Bro .. The people here may not be appreciative of your vast knowledge and experience . Maybe u should try to start one thread at mycarforum.com u probably get a group of like minded people to have a healthy discussion


thanks, Samuel....may be will go over to discuss on car some other time, saw so many nice cars in US & China, but not available in Spore....
at the meatimes, I don't want to spend too much time in forum, just read some report, waiting for next big thing to come for some good short to mid term investment....Nov 23, US budget deficit is a big thing, a good time to enter.....
they appreciate or not, I dont care, just put my view & what I have read, relax & holiday, act when opportunity is here, anything you can PM me....:)

[basic]

During QE1 and QE2, Nouriel Roubini was shouting about the dangers of USD carry trade. Nobody listened. Looks like his prediction might be coming true afterall.:doh:


Since March there has been a massive rally in all sorts of risky assets – equities, oil, energy and commodity prices – a narrowing of high-yield and high-grade credit spreads, and an even bigger rally in emerging market asset classes (their stocks, bonds and currencies). At the same time, the dollar has weakened sharply, while government bond yields have gently increased but stayed low and stable.

This recovery in risky assets is in part driven by better economic fundamentals. We avoided a near depression and financial sector meltdown with a massive monetary, fiscal stimulus and bank bail-outs. Whether the recovery is V-shaped, as consensus believes, or U-shaped and anaemic as I have argued, asset prices should be moving gradually higher.
But while the US and global economy have begun a modest recovery, asset prices have gone through the roof since March in a major and synchronised rally. While asset prices were falling sharply in 2008, when the dollar was rallying, they have recovered sharply since March while the dollar is tanking. Risky asset prices have risen too much, too soon and too fast compared with macroeconomic fundamentals. So what is behind this massive rally? Certainly it has been helped by a wave of liquidity from near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing. But a more important factor fuelling this asset bubble is the weakness of the US dollar, driven by the mother of all carry trades. The US dollar has become the major funding currency of carry trades as the Fed has kept interest rates on hold and is expected to do so for a long time. Investors who are shorting the US dollar to buy on a highly leveraged basis higher-yielding assets and other global assets are not just borrowing at zero interest rates in dollar terms; they are borrowing at very negative interest rates – as low as negative 10 or 20 per cent annualised – as the fall in the US dollar leads to massive capital gains on short dollar positions.
Let us sum up: traders are borrowing at negative 20 per cent rates to invest on a highly leveraged basis on a mass of risky global assets that are rising in price due to excess liquidity and a massive carry trade. Every investor who plays this risky game looks like a genius – even if they are just riding a huge bubble financed by a large negative cost of borrowing – as the total returns have been in the 50-70 per cent range since March.
People’s sense of the value at risk (VAR) of their aggregate portfolios ought, instead, to have been increasing due to a rising correlation of the risks between different asset classes, all of which are driven by this common monetary policy and the carry trade. In effect, it has become one big common trade – you short the dollar to buy any global risky assets.
Yet, at the same time, the perceived riskiness of individual asset classes is declining as volatility is diminished due to the Fed’s policy of buying everything in sight – witness its proposed $1,800bn (£1,000bn, €1,200bn) purchase of Treasuries, mortgage- backed securities (bonds guaranteed by a government-sponsored enterprise such as Fannie Mae) and agency debt. By effectively reducing the volatility of individual asset classes, making them behave the same way, there is now little diversification across markets – the VAR again looks low.
So the combined effect of the Fed policy of a zero Fed funds rate, quantitative easing and massive purchase of long-term debt instruments is seemingly making the world safe – for now – for the mother of all carry trades and mother of all highly leveraged global asset bubbles.
While this policy feeds the global asset bubble it is also feeding a new US asset bubble. Easy money, quantitative easing, credit easing and massive inflows of capital into the US via an accumulation of forex reserves by foreign central banks makes US fiscal deficits easier to fund and feeds the US equity and credit bubble. Finally, a weak dollar is good for US equities as it may lead to higher growth and makes the foreign currency profits of US corporations abroad greater in dollar terms.
The reckless US policy that is feeding these carry trades is forcing other countries to follow its easy monetary policy. Near-zero policy rates and quantitative easing were already in place in the UK, eurozone, Japan, Sweden and other advanced economies, but the dollar weakness is making this global monetary easing worse. Central banks in Asia and Latin America are worried about dollar weakness and are aggressively intervening to stop excessive currency appreciation. This is keeping short-term rates lower than is desirable. Central banks may also be forced to lower interest rates through domestic open market operations. Some central banks, concerned about the hot money driving up their currencies, as in Brazil, are imposing controls on capital inflows. Either way, the carry trade bubble will get worse: if there is no forex intervention and foreign currencies appreciate, the negative borrowing cost of the carry trade becomes more negative. If intervention or open market operations control currency appreciation, the ensuing domestic monetary easing feeds an asset bubble in these economies. So the perfectly correlated bubble across all global asset classes gets bigger by the day.
But one day this bubble will burst, leading to the biggest co-ordinated asset bust ever: if factors lead the dollar to reverse and suddenly appreciate – as was seen in previous reversals, such as the yen-funded carry trade – the leveraged carry trade will have to be suddenly closed as investors cover their dollar shorts. A stampede will occur as closing long leveraged risky asset positions across all asset classes funded by dollar shorts triggers a co-ordinated collapse of all those risky assets – equities, commodities, emerging market asset classes and credit instruments.
Why will these carry trades unravel? First, the dollar cannot fall to zero and at some point it will stabilise; when that happens the cost of borrowing in dollars will suddenly become zero, rather than highly negative, and the riskiness of a reversal of dollar movements would induce many to cover their shorts. Second, the Fed cannot suppress volatility forever – its $1,800bn purchase plan will be over by next spring. Third, if US growth surprises on the upside in the third and fourth quarters, markets may start to expect a Fed tightening to come sooner, not later. Fourth, there could be a flight from risk prompted by fear of a double dip recession or geopolitical risks, such as a military confrontation between the US/Israel and Iran. As in 2008, when such a rise in risk aversion was associated with a sharp appreciation of the dollar, as investors sought the safety of US Treasuries, this renewed risk aversion would trigger a dollar rally at a time when huge short dollar positions will have to be closed.
This unraveling may not occur for a while, as easy money and excessive global liquidity can push asset prices higher for a while. But the longer and bigger the carry trades and the larger the asset bubble, the bigger will be the ensuing asset bubble crash. The Fed and other policymakers seem unaware of the monster bubble they are creating. The longer they remain blind, the harder the markets will fall.
The writer is a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business and chairman of Roubini Global Economics






everything go in cycle...up/down, wind/unwind, rate down/hike.....
US$ alreay loan out so much, time to unwind & buy back for US$ to shoot to sky....
rate already at bottom, can only go up from here, simple....everybody knows...nobody can change it, whether is govt fiscal or monetary policy....it still has to go up 1 day, just when....coming lah.....this is where your skill & knowledge count.......:)

[avo7007]

It's quite amazing that he predicted the ensuing global asset bubble cause by QE so far back .......

Roubini: "This unraveling may not occur for a while, as easy money and excessive global liquidity can push asset prices higher for a while. But the longer and bigger the carry trades and the larger the asset bubble, the bigger will be the ensuing asset bubble crash."

[amk]

Thanks bro. To me Basic's posts are generally right in direction but the numbers may be incorrect, that why I said the information he provided is not "totally" lie, but can be exaggerating

A 0.5% correction to a 20% crash is mere exaggerating ?

He is simply feeding on rumors, and fabricate, spread rumors, claiming that is fact, to suit his own agenda. ( which is wishing a crash of SG market, so he can enter). The tone of his 1st post is clear.

And so far he has not found a single SG property market correction news , other than his own "15%" rumor. So he continue to post chinese Internet "news".

And for every other opinion or even FACT that is presented in his face, instad of counter-analysis and discuss, he resorts to name calling, shouting, accusing and all sorts of foul languages.

I'm shocked you find this behavior acceptable.

I wish to have a closer discussion on this strange market situation now. But

[basic]

It's quite amazing that he predicted the ensuing global asset bubble cause by QE so far back .......

Roubini: "This unraveling may not occur for a while, as easy money and excessive global liquidity can push asset prices higher for a while. But the longer and bigger the carry trades and the larger the asset bubble, the bigger will be the ensuing asset bubble crash."


all bubble will burst....property, currency, bond, technology, stock....
that is how & where weak holders get caught....
too bad, spore is market economy, govt don't act, foreign force will do it, just like Thailand/Indonesia in 1997, lehman in 2008, Greece, Italy & PIIGS now....france, Germany, china, Japan, US all will be in....
that is why this round is super gigantic big.....:)

[basic]

Payback Time – The Coming Decade Of Deleveraging


November 18th, 2011


That leverage enabled consumption and capex to rise quicker and with less capital but obviously with more risk. With the current balance-sheet recession stymieing monetary policy and fiscal policy hardly supportive, it seems the private deleveraging hole will be difficult to fill with public borrowing excess. It seems that credit markets (the ubiquitous source of all that leverage) have again and again sung from a different song-sheet with regard to the way we escape from the inevitable deleveraging we are currently undertaking. Matt King, of Citigroup, provides a thought-provoking (and all-encompassing) slide-deck on the coming decade of deleveraging and how now is time for payback.






deleveraging means pay back time for all DEBT, housing loan or credit card or ....whatever loan & debt......this is the decade to settle all the debt in this world, will stretch to next decade....
when interets rate shoot up like 1980s...then debt is difficult to settle liao....blood flows, going to be very ugly, time to repent & pay back....

[amk]

It's quite amazing that he predicted the ensuing global asset bubble cause by QE ...

For every policy, there are always academics on either side. You get famous when you theory turned out right.

Andy Xie got famous when he "predicted" HK 97 crash.

And from 2001 Andy Xie had been predicting china pty bubble to burst. For 11 yrs now.

The old man in Omaha put money where his mouth is. The academics dun. I have respect for the former.

[SpinCity]

I mind hahaha!

Not a problem at all as no one here need to prove or guarantee their posts
So many people said they will buy when price fall but at the end who know if they really do that

[avo7007]

A 0.5% correction to a 20% crash is mere exaggerating ?



Not trying to defend basic, but there is a real disconnect between what's happening on the ground and the official stats in China. Check out this China housing study from NUS:

http://www.ires.nus.edu.sg/workingpapers/IRES2011-017.pdf

[ahkongkid]

kinda interesting that whenever someone posts news / opinions which even has a hint of bearish-ness it has to be caveated that he / she is not defending basic. :D




Not trying to defend basic, but there is a real disconnect between what's happening on the ground and the official stats in China. Check out this China housing study from NUS:

http://www.ires.nus.edu.sg/workingpapers/IRES2011-017.pdf

[basic]

Not trying to defend basic, but there is a real disconnect between what's happening on the ground and the official stats in China. Check out this China housing study from NUS:

http://www.ires.nus.edu.sg/workingpapers/IRES2011-017.pdf



no need to explain...they will never understand...living in denial now....
If you say property will go up...what nonsense also can.....:)

[basic]

kinda interesting that whenever someone posts news / opinions which even has a hint of bearish-ness it has to be caveated that he / she is not defending basic. :D

very sensitive & dangerous you know...if you show face, die also don't know what is going on.....haha....:):)

[avo7007]

kinda interesting that whenever someone posts news / opinions which even has a hint of bearish-ness it has to be caveated that he / she is not defending basic. :D

Haha. I am in no position to defend basic's EQ or rather his lack of.:)

[basic]

Haha. I am in no position to defend basic's EQ or rather his lack of.:)


I have lots of good friends all over...go china from north to south...just a call, all ready.....
this forum.....haha...both ways lah.....:):)

[SpinCity]

A 0.5% correction to a 20% crash is mere exaggerating ?

He is simply feeding on rumors, and fabricate, spread rumors, claiming that is fact, to suit his own agenda. ( which is wishing a crash of SG market, so he can enter). The tone of his 1st post is clear.

And so far he has not found a single SG property market correction news , other than his own "15%" rumor. So he continue to post chinese Internet "news".

And for every other opinion or even FACT that is presented in his face, instad of counter-analysis and discuss, he resorts to name calling, shouting, accusing and all sorts of foul languages.

I'm shocked you find this behavior acceptable.

I wish to have a closer discussion on this strange market situation now. But
Frankly, if you talk about the price correction in the China property market, I would think that 0.5% is as exaggerating as 20%, if not more

I don't agree name calling, shouting, accusing, and the the rest, but frankly, he is not the first and only one who do it, and he gets his fair share of being called, shouted and accused at , right?

Many forumers here say that if the government open the FT tap the price will shoot up, property price will only go up in long term, to me this is no better than "the Europe debt will cause 50% correction in SG property price in 2-3 years". But we are more tolerant toward overly optimistically bullish comments (these we call them personal view) than exaggerating bearish views (these we call them lies). It is fair enough as most of us are all vested in Singapore through jobs, investments, and other ways. But come on, just give this guy a break. What do you expect from him? disappear from the thread he started? apologize for the information/opinion he posted? apologize for calling names on those who also called on him?

I would think for the benefits of all the forumers here, it shall be fine as long as corrective information is provided by him or others. There is really no need to nail down on him for each word he said in this forum. At the end of the day, it is his reputation and credibility at stake, isn't it?

Once again, I am not defending him, just we shall all have the freedom of speech, at least in a cyber forum

[Worsty]

*crickets*

[ahkongkid]

haha.. and no one would wanna be in the way of a lynching mob :tsk-tsk:



Haha. I am in no position to defend basic's EQ or rather his lack of.:)

[jeaprp]

Not a problem at all as no one here need to prove or guarantee their posts
So many people said they will buy when price fall but at the end who know if they really do that

Don't think I will buy now, still monitoring.
but if >20% drop within 1-2yr, maybe will become buyer also.
but if EU breakdown/crisis, then all bets are off

[basic]

Frankly, if you talk about the price correction in the China property market, I would think that 0.5% is as exaggerating as 20%, if not more

I don't agree name calling, shouting, accusing, and the the rest, but frankly, he is not the first and only one who do it, and he gets his fair share of being called, shouted and accused at , right?

Many forumers here say that if the government open the FT tap the price will shoot up, property price will only go up in long term, to me this is no better than "the Europe debt will cause 50% correction in SG property price in 2-3 years". But we are more tolerant toward overly optimistically bullish comments (these we call them personal view) than exaggerating bearish views (these we call them lies). It is fair enough as most of us are all vested in Singapore through jobs, investments, and other ways. But come on, just give this guy a break. What do you expect from him? disappear from the thread he started? apologize for the information/opinion he posted? apologize for calling names on those who also called on him?

I would think for the benefits of all the forumers here, it shall be fine as long as corrective information is provided by him or others. There is really no need to nail down on him for each word he said in this forum. At the end of the day, it is his reputation and credibility at stake, isn't it?

Once again, I am not defending him, just we shall all have the freedom of speech, at least in a cyber forum



no need to talk so much....time will tell....
the bull go to their bull thread & shout property will up 100% from here in 1-2 yrs time if they think so....give their reasons & opinion.....

even porperty down>50% in 2-3 yrs time, I know I will not get credit here too, I know someone will grab the credit....I dont bother, I know what is next is good enough....be happy......

as I said I don't need anything from them....who care about them.....:)

[basic]

nice article...If you understand what is systematic risk.....means if Europe banks is down, US banks will down together, no exception at all....whether FED print money or stimulus...nothing can help.....
go & look at global banks share, DBS going to below 12 soon...UOB from 22 to below 16 now.....more to come....wait for ang mo to whack later due to their housing loan rate....



歐債對沖不可靠　銀行風險大暴露

意大利及西班牙國債孳息居高不下，市場恐慌不斷上升，評級機構惠譽國際再度扮演「黑嘴」，針對美國六家大銀行在歐債危機中所面對的風險，發表報告預警，引發金融股急瀉。

[basic]

no money liao, how to lend...now only collect loan money back...cut jobs, cut spending....time for Europe banks to recall all loans from asia back for rescue....all will be affected....
interest rate sure surges up under such high risk situation plus short of liquidity now.....
no money how to do business?? if your business partner is Europe company will you give credit to them?? many stop shipment now to avoid bad debts....business will slowdown a lot later....



European firms face lending woes – WSJ

By Gerry Davies (http://www.forexlive.com/blog/author/redbarron99/) || November 18, 2011 at 06:09 GMT

Companies struggle as banks lend less, at higher rates (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204517204577044161188844928.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories), forcing businesses into public markets with selective investors.

[devilplate]

I'm very conservative by your standards....

20% cash, 30% shares (more into REITS/Pref sh for yield), 50% into a few properties. Very little debt though ...very low leverage.

another one 50% into ppty,.....

mabe i shdnt say 50% is the tipping point.....bcoz all dunwan to be identified as a bull or bear....LOL

[devilplate]

no need to shout here...forumers know who is liar...fact is all there, you just make yourself a fool here.....:):)

we all noe who is the BIGGEST LIAR! whahahahhaa

the biggest liar is the one who call others liar!

[devilplate]

my forecast & predicted number is my prediction...exagerate or not time will tell, till now, this is all I can say here, detailed will not be shared with forumers here....just give you a general direction to help you.....
official data or copy report...from official, all china paper & TV station said accordingly....I have spent 1.5 month in China in last 2 months....it's all fact....
relax lah, weather is so nice in china now...go holiday, leaves just turn yelllow & red now, later will botak liao....good food, shopping, drinks....haha...:)

KING OF TWISTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[devilplate]

Bro .. The people here may not be appreciative of your vast knowledge and experience . Maybe u should try to start one thread at mycarforum.com u probably get a group of like minded people to have a healthy discussion

u r too naive and innocent liao!!!

wats the point of spreading bear rumours in a bear forum????

[gn108]

You asked, I answered.
Just happens to be at the 50% mark now coz I sold a unit recently.
Else it wld higher with more debt.
If you add my propery holdings in shares then it goes up significantly.



another one 50% into ppty,.....

mabe i shdnt say 50% is the tipping point.....bcoz all dunwan to be identified as a bull or bear....LOL

[devilplate]

It's quite amazing that he predicted the ensuing global asset bubble cause by QE so far back .......

Roubini: "This unraveling may not occur for a while, as easy money and excessive global liquidity can push asset prices higher for a while. But the longer and bigger the carry trades and the larger the asset bubble, the bigger will be the ensuing asset bubble crash."

i tot the side effects of QE is well known to everybody since day 1???:confused: :confused: :confused: :beats-me-man: :beats-me-man: :beats-me-man:

u tink MBT enforce all the CMs for fun meh?

[devilplate]

You asked, I answered.
Just happens to be at the 50% mark now coz I sold a unit recently.
Else it wld higher with more debt.
If you add my propery holdings in shares then it goes up significantly.

no worries....itsok

bcoz so far 2 replied mah.....both 50% lor....hehe:D

u haf quite a big portion on equities....although it may sounds like zai zai bcoz its reits/pref shares.....u shd try to put a stop loss hor....oh ya pref shares no stop loss thingy rite

[devilplate]

everything go in cycle...up/down, wind/unwind, rate down/hike.....
US$ alreay loan out so much, time to unwind & buy back for US$ to shoot to sky....
rate already at bottom, can only go up from here, simple....everybody knows...nobody can change it, whether is govt fiscal or monetary policy....it still has to go up 1 day, just when....coming lah.....this is where your skill & knowledge count.......:)

u tok machiam like nvr tok.....

everybody knows u got only one skill.....bullshyting!!!!!!!!!!! whahahahha

[gn108]

Not sure what is the point of all this but alot also depends on whether its 50% at cost or valuation. That's why I favour CDL vs the others...




no worries....itsok

bcoz so far 2 replied mah.....both 50% lor....hehe:D

u haf quite a big portion on equities....although it may sounds like zai zai bcoz its reits/pref shares.....u shd try to put a stop loss hor....oh ya pref shares no stop loss thingy rite

[devilplate]

For every policy, there are always academics on either side. You get famous when you theory turned out right.

Andy Xie got famous when he "predicted" HK 97 crash.

And from 2001 Andy Xie had been predicting china pty bubble to burst. For 11 yrs now.

The old man in Omaha put money where his mouth is. The academics dun. I have respect for the former.

Fully agreed

great minds tink alike....

in simpler words, TALK IS CHEAP! whahahah

action speaks louder den words;)

[devilplate]

Not sure what is the point of all this but alot also depends on whether its 50% at cost or valuation. That's why I favour CDL vs the others...

always based on current valuation.....portfolio grows.....certain portion outperform and tats y we nid constant portfolio balancing;)

[basic]

u tok machiam like nvr tok.....

everybody knows u got only one skill.....bullshyting!!!!!!!!!!! whahahahha



just reversed what lair king shout is correct, that is why you r liar king...:):)

[SpinCity]

For every policy, there are always academics on either side. You get famous when you theory turned out right.

Andy Xie got famous when he "predicted" HK 97 crash.

And from 2001 Andy Xie had been predicting china pty bubble to burst. For 11 yrs now.

The old man in Omaha put money where his mouth is. The academics dun. I have respect for the former.

Agree. Cannot follow analyst blindly as they make money from their reports anyway, but we as investors put our money at stake.

But even the Oracle in Omaha can make mistakes. Those followed him for BYD and still hold on to the shares may have gotten burnt. The Oracle can afford the loss, or less profit, but the followers may not

Again, it's our money at stake so be cautious and careful!

[basic]

KING OF TWISTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

our LIAR KING....:):)

[basic]

Fully agreed

great minds tink alike....

in simpler words, TALK IS CHEAP! whahahah

action speaks louder den words;)


this liar king still hold tight tight few property with tons of debt & loan to pay...bull supporter quietly.....SWEE!!!!.....going to die pain pain in next few years.......:):)

[devilplate]

Agree. Cannot follow analyst blindly as they make money from their reports anyway, but we as investors put our money at stake.

But even the Oracle in Omaha can make mistakes. Those followed him for BYD and still hold on to the shares may have gotten burnt. The Oracle can afford the loss, or less profit, but the followers may not

Again, it's our money at stake so be cautious and careful!

AMK haf respect for the oracle but tat doesnt mean he follows exactly wat he did mah

u noe, buffet had always been my idol since the very first day i start to fry equities....but i nvr follow closely wat he did....i simply dun bother.....i just grab some of the essence from the books he published;)

[Worsty]

Fully agreed

great minds tink alike....

in simpler words, TALK IS CHEAP! whahahah

action speaks louder den words;)

Just like how someone talk about got free money take lo, but when challenge issued, diam diam. Twist again. :D

Take up challenge leh. I want to be free of this mortgage before SSD even up.

[devilplate]

this liar king still hold tight tight few property with tons of debt & loan to pay...bull supporter quietly.....SWEE!!!!.....going to die pain pain in nest few years.......:):)

how u get the connection from tat post???

u r the ultimate LIAR KING LOL....

i tink u lie until u duno wats truth and lies liao.....poor thing....confused kid

[devilplate]

Just like how someone talk about got free money take lo, but when challenge issued, diam diam. Twist again. :D

Take up challenge leh. I want to be free of this mortgage before SSD even up.

he got money to pay u anot in the first plc?

[SpinCity]

AMK haf respect for the oracle but tat doesnt mean he follows exactly wat he did mah

u noe, buffet had always been my idol since the very first day i start to fry equities....but i nvr follow closely wat he did....i simply dun bother.....i just grab some of the essence from the books he published;)

Yes, it is the investment principles to be followed but not the investment itself

[gn108]

gotta take a break from this ....can't wait till I return to this forum ... hoot la

[basic]

how u get the connection from tat post???

u r the ultimate LIAR KING LOL....

i tink u lie until u duno wats truth and lies liao.....poor thing....confused kid



parrot..don't be shy lah....
so you admit you are liar king now..hahaha......:)

[basic]

gotta take a break from this ....can't wait till I return to this forum ... hoot la

ok covered my short in those banks for today....
return to this forum to have some fun.....:)

[devilplate]

parrot..don't be shy lah....
so you admit you are liar king now..hahaha......:)

u r bestest at diverting attention....twisting.....name calling....bullshyting

ignore questions tat u duno how to answer and use name calling!

i rightfully pointed out tat u r the first one who call ppl fools, and wat u reply was....Liar.....despite i highlighted in red and expanded the font.....dun tell me u r both color blind and extreme short sighted?

u noe wat.....u will either drown my post or say LIAR again...LOL:D

[basic]

u r bestest at diverting attention....twisting.....name calling....bullshyting

ignore questions tat u duno how to answer and use name calling!

i rightfully pointed out tat u r the first one who call ppl fools, and wat u reply was....Liar.....despite i highlighted in red and expanded the font.....dun tell me u r both color blind and extreme short sighted?

u noe wat.....u will either drown my post or say LIAR again...LOL:D


cool lah, LIAR KING CUM PARROT.....:):)

[Worsty]

ok covered my short in those banks for today....
return to this forum to have some fun.....:)

Better cover the short and take in some profits and accumulate whatever you have.

Even though my mortgage is peanuts compared to most posters here but i suppose every little bit counts if the unit didn't TOP in 1095 days.

[basic]

with such, how US going to solve their unemployment problem?? without jobs, how to solve debt, demand, property, food.....problems...print money also not use, feed fish instead of fishing themselves....

only way they will go is TRADE WAR with China...impose 1000% tax to all china import, so that they can steal some jobs back from china or move factory back from china to US, local build, no tax....

With US complain about china currency manipulation, end result is to start a trade war....let see, next yr.....
same to Spore...tax manipulation...export will also be affected due to protectionism....


Did you know that an average of 23 manufacturing facilities were shut down every single day in the United States last year?


November 18th, 2011


Did you know that an average of 23 manufacturing facilities were shut down every single day in the United States last year? As World War II ended, the United States emerged as the greatest industrial power that the world has ever seen. But now America’s industrial might is being gutted like a fish and both political parties seem totally unconcerned. Yes, we will always need trading relationships that are fair and balanced with other countries that have economic systems that are similar to our own. However, the truth is that most of our trading relationships are neither “fair” nor balanced. For example, China manipulates currency rates so that Chinese products are much cheaper than they should be, they brazenly steal our technology and we let them get away with it, they deeply subsidize their most important industries and they exploit their citizens by allowing them to be paid slave labor wages. How in the world does that resemble the “free market” at work?

[Hamilton]

with such, how US going to solve their unemployment problem?? without jobs, how to solve debt, demand, property, food.....problems...print money also not use, feed fish instead of fishing themselves....

only way they will go is TRADE WAR with China...impose 1000% tax to all china import, so that they can steal some jobs back from china or move factory back from china to US, local build, no tax....

With US complain about china currency manipulation, end result is to start a trade war....let see, next yr.....
same to Spore...tax manipulation...export will also be affected due to protectionism....





Did you know that an average of 23 manufacturing facilities were shut down every single day in the United States last year?


November 18th, 2011


Did you know that an average of 23 manufacturing facilities were shut down every single day in the United States last year? As World War II ended, the United States emerged as the greatest industrial power that the world has ever seen. But now America’s industrial might is being gutted like a fish and both political parties seem totally unconcerned. Yes, we will always need trading relationships that are fair and balanced with other countries that have economic systems that are similar to our own. However, the truth is that most of our trading relationships are neither “fair” nor balanced. For example, China manipulates currency rates so that Chinese products are much cheaper than they should be, they brazenly steal our technology and we let them get away with it, they deeply subsidize their most important industries and they exploit their citizens by allowing them to be paid slave labor wages. How in the world does that resemble the “free market” at work?

BASIC, you are the best!:cheers1: how you manage to get all this info so fast and updated every now and then?

[basic]

BASIC, you are the best!:cheers1: how you manage to get all this info so fast and updated every now and then?


many here said all these fake one lah...rumour...bullshyt....haha...those jokers.....these are good for you to have a feel if you are not there yourself....

there are much more interesting one, not to post here...
all these for fun reading, those serious stuff, still need a lot of hardwork to derive....:)

[proud owner]

the biggest french bank ... just retrenched some in singapore and hk office ...

[devilplate]

the biggest french bank ... just retrenched some in singapore and hk office ...

any1 happen to be their landlord?

[Hamilton]

many here said all these fake one lah...rumour...bullshyt....haha...those jokers.....these are good for you to have a feel if you are not there yourself....

there are much more interesting one, not to post here...
all these for fun reading, those serious stuff, still need a lot of hardwork to derive....:)

No worries, Basic, the truth will prevail, it is up to them to read and digest, furthermore:cheers1:, your information from the internet, can track back, even though is cut and paste, how to lie, i doubt so.

Please continue with your update, the rest is up to us to decipher. It has been very informative. The facts you provided have cautioned us to be more discerning on the general information which we can only get from our local news. Thanks!:cheers5:

[basic]

the biggest french bank ... just retrenched some in singapore and hk office ...


more to come for almost all US & Europe banks here.....
local & Asian banks, let see....all linked & tied together....:)

[devilplate]

more to come for almost all US & Europe banks here.....
local & Asian banks, let see....all linked & tied together....:)

a panicky and desperado trying his best to create panic again

well done:cheers1:

[basic]

No worries, Basic, the truth will prevail, it is up to them to read and digest, furthermore:cheers1:, your information from the internet, can track back, even though is cut and paste, how to lie, i doubt so.

Please continue with your update, the rest is up to us to decipher. It has been very informative. The facts you provided have cautioned us to be more discerning on the general information which we can only get from our local news. Thanks!:cheers5:



thanks...at least got 1 forumer appreciate....
I copy & paste to force myself to read some detailed, also update some fact & data in my minds....:)

[devilplate]

No worries, Basic, the truth will prevail, it is up to them to read and digest, furthermore:cheers1:, your information from the internet, can track back, even though is cut and paste, how to lie, i doubt so.

Please continue with your update, the rest is up to us to decipher. It has been very informative. The facts you provided have cautioned us to be more discerning on the general information which we can only get from our local news. Thanks!:cheers5:

the cut and paste....yes...gd to read them....

but i wud advise u to skip his bullshyt comments....LOL

[basic]

a panicky and desperado trying his best to create panic again

well done:cheers1:



only fools panic.......:)

[devilplate]

thanks...at least got 1 forumer appreciate....
I copy & paste to force myself to read some detailed, also update some fact & data in my minds....:)

more will appreciate if u dun add in ur personal forecast and opinions....just keep it to urself or those who PMed u

[basic]

the cut and paste....yes...gd to read them....

but i wud advise u to skip his bullshyt comments....LOL

LIAR KING, you read??....no integrity....
why I comment?? I only paste 10%, the rest I summarise for myself, my comment is better than original..haha....:)

[devilplate]

LIAR KING, you read??....no integrity....
why I comment?? I only paste 10%, the rest I summarise for myself....:)

dun say i nvr warn u all hor.....;)

[basic]

dun say i nvr warn u all hor.....;)

my comment is better than original.....:):)

[basic]

more will appreciate if u dun add in ur personal forecast and opinions....just keep it to urself or those who PMed u

who are you?.......:):)

[devilplate]

who are you?........:):)

u r the best!!!:D

[avo7007]

Some quotes from MAS's annual report out today :

"External shocks and financial contagion could trigger funding stresses and cause financial institutions to reprice risks.

This could, in turn, lead to higher borrowing costs and curtail lending, especially in foreign currencies.

While cooling measures have been implemented by the government, there is also a need to be cautious and vigilant about the property market.

MAS is monitoring developments closely and stands ready to address such concerns."

[devilplate]

Some quotes from MAS's annual report out today :

"External shocks and financial contagion could trigger funding stresses and cause financial institutions to reprice risks.

This could, in turn, lead to higher borrowing costs and curtail lending, especially in foreign currencies.

While cooling measures have been implemented by the government, there is also a need to be cautious and vigilant about the property market.

MAS is monitoring developments closely and stands ready to address such concerns."

tats the key reason y we nid huge reserves....

ok end of OT:D

[avo7007]

"MAS is monitoring developments closely and stands ready to address such concerns."

Haha, I remember seeing this kind of phrasing before.:scared-4:

[devilplate]

"MAS is monitoring developments closely and stands ready to address such concerns."

Haha, I remember seeing this kind of phrasing before.:scared-4:

common motherhood statement mah

[basic]

Some quotes from MAS's annual report out today :

"External shocks and financial contagion could trigger funding stresses and cause financial institutions to reprice risks.

This could, in turn, lead to higher borrowing costs and curtail lending, especially in foreign currencies.

While cooling measures have been implemented by the government, there is also a need to be cautious and vigilant about the property market.

MAS is monitoring developments closely and stands ready to address such concerns."



haha...they are always late...I said it long ago....
local 3 banks are in trouble with their housing loan risk due to interest spread.....no banks will commit suicide this way...if based on 50% drop in property price, most likely fail the test.....
WHATEVER NO BAILOUT....be responsible....wait for foreign funds to whack them hard when dowhgraded.....
specifically mentioned property.....go ho lan liao...better lower price fast to save more casualties.....to avoid blurred sotong will jump in....whatever, downtrend already there, down>50% in 2-3 yrs......

[proud owner]

a panicky and desperado trying his best to create panic again

well done:cheers1:

well

i just 'whatsapp'ed some friends in singapore ...the mood is not good ...

not that they have read Basic's contribution ..

but we (banking sector) know whats going on ... and the fear is real .. more will be on the road ...

i am not spreading fear .. but hope to give some unpublished sentiments among bankers ...

although someone said that bankers are not the smartest when it comes to prop investments... but i say they a major contributor to this run up in prop prices ..

and if we take them away .. the base is weakened somewhat ..

[basic]

u r the best!!!:D


thank you....:):)

[devilplate]

thank you....:):)

best at bullshyting, twisting, lying....LOL:D

[devilplate]

well

i just 'whatsapp'ed some friends in singapore ...the mood is not good ...

not that they have read Basic's contribution ..

but we (banking sector) know whats going on ... and the fear is real .. more will be on the road ...

i am not spreading fear .. but hope to give some unpublished sentiments among bankers ...

although someone said that bankers are not the smartest when it comes to prop investments... but i say they a major contributor to this run up in prop prices ..

and if we take them away .. the base is weakened somewhat ..

we r reasonable folks.....we noe who is spreading fear and who is giving us a frenly warning;)

[devilplate]

looks like forummers r afraid to get connected for defending/supporting/mimicking basic....

[devilplate]

haha...they are always late...I said it long ago....
local 3 banks are in trouble with their housing loan risk due to interest spread.....no banks will commit suicide this way...if based on 50% drop in property price, most likely fail the test.....
WHATEVER NO BAILOUT....be responsible....wait for foreign funds to whack them hard when dowhgraded.....
specifically mentioned property.....go ho lan liao...better lower price fast to save more casualties.....to avoid blurred sotong will jump in....whatever, downtrend already there, down>50% in 2-3 yrs......


to proudowner,

this is wat we call spreading fear:D

[basic]

best at bullshyting, twisting, lying....LOL:D

this is you, LIAR KING....:)

[basic]

looks like forummers r afraid to get connected for defending/supporting/mimicking basic....


due to people like you...all the hooligan & rubbish....:):)

[avo7007]

MAS-"External shocks and financial contagion could trigger funding stresses and cause financial institutions to reprice risks."

If our banks start to have a negative view of the pty mkt, I think our borrowing cost will go up on the basis of a higher risk premium......:doh:

[basic]

to proudowner,

this is wat we call spreading fear:D


this is my comments & opinion...go & read my earlier post....no country in the world with 1% interest spread...only spore banks, they are committing suicide themselves...go & read lah..LIAR KING...hahahaha......:):)

[basic]

we r reasonable folks.....we noe who is spreading fear and who is giving us a frenly warning;)


liar king, so personal.....no standard....:):)

[proud owner]

to proudowner,

this is wat we call spreading fear:D

another friend just whatsapped me ..

asked for my view ... he has 2 units at D10.. total within the family they ahve 7 units .. though all rented out and bought in 2007 ..
they are thinking of selling .. to cash in and see how the mkt developes ..

if mkt falls ..they can pick up something better later ..
if mkt doesnt.. they are happy to have taken profit ..


i actually told him to keep ... since he only has 2 units . though both rented out .. since the family lives in a 7000 sqft townhouse .. he need to worry about falling prices (if any) ..

but i feel he wants to cash in

[devilplate]

this is my comments & opinion...go & read my earlier post....no country in the world with 1% interest spread...only spore banks, they are committing suicide themselves...go & read lah..LIAR KING...hahahaha......:):)

i am familiar in the banking sector particularly in the mortgage dept....

who r u?:rolleyes:

[Hamilton]

another friend just whatsapped me ..

asked for my view ... he has 2 units at D10.. total within the family they ahve 7 units .. though all rented out and bought in 2007 ..
they are thinking of selling .. to cash in and see how the mkt developes ..

if mkt falls ..they can pick up something better later ..
if mkt doesnt.. they are happy to have taken profit ..


i actually told him to keep ... since he only has 2 units . though both rented out .. since the family lives in a 7000 sqft townhouse .. he need to worry about falling prices (if any) ..

but i feel he wants to cash in

The :2cents:Rich are wise people, that's how they become richer.:tongue3:

[devilplate]

MAS-"External shocks and financial contagion could trigger funding stresses and cause financial institutions to reprice risks."

If our banks start to have a negative view of the pty mkt, I think our borrowing cost will go up on the basis of a higher risk premium......:doh:

it has to go up....the current bank spread making me look like a carrot head.....:(

[SpinCity]

haha...they are always late...I said it long ago....
local 3 banks are in trouble with their housing loan risk due to interest spread.....no banks will commit suicide this way...if based on 50% drop in property price, most likely fail the test.....
WHATEVER NO BAILOUT....be responsible....wait for foreign funds to whack them hard when dowhgraded.....
specifically mentioned property.....go ho lan liao...better lower price fast to save more casualties.....to avoid blurred sotong will jump in....whatever, downtrend already there, down>50% in 2-3 yrs......


Cannot agree with you on the "no bailout" if bail out is necessary to save the country's banking system. If banks fail, we all will be hurt
MAS is not GOD to judge banks by justice, but a government agency who theoretically acts for the interest of the country and its people

[SpinCity]

another friend just whatsapped me ..

asked for my view ... he has 2 units at D10.. total within the family they ahve 7 units .. though all rented out and bought in 2007 ..
they are thinking of selling .. to cash in and see how the mkt developes ..

if mkt falls ..they can pick up something better later ..
if mkt doesnt.. they are happy to have taken profit ..


i actually told him to keep ... since he only has 2 units . though both rented out .. since the family lives in a 7000 sqft townhouse .. he need to worry about falling prices (if any) ..

but i feel he wants to cash in
Frankly, it is hard to sell now at the last transacted price unless priced to sell with a good discount (even 10% is not enough I reckon). May be too late.

May ask Teddy if your friend's units are in Prime location (D10 seems to be prime), high floor, good facing, and not rubbish according to his standard. He will buy at 10% discount of market price

[avo7007]

Frankly, it is hard to sell now at the last transacted price unless priced to sell with a good

Haha, even pty buyer want a higher risk premium.:doh: Looks like things going to get interesting...................

[Laguna]

Frankly, it is hard to sell now at the last transacted price unless priced to sell with a good discount (even 10% is not enough I reckon). May be too late.

May ask Teddy if your friend's units are in Prime location (D10 seems to be prime), high floor, good facing, and not rubbish according to his standard. He will buy at 10% discount of market price

yes, it is now very difficult to sell
when I started selling in late last year and early last year, alr had a feeling of that....

[devilplate]

another friend just whatsapped me ..

asked for my view ... he has 2 units at D10.. total within the family they ahve 7 units .. though all rented out and bought in 2007 ..
they are thinking of selling .. to cash in and see how the mkt developes ..

if mkt falls ..they can pick up something better later ..
if mkt doesnt.. they are happy to have taken profit ..


i actually told him to keep ... since he only has 2 units . though both rented out .. since the family lives in a 7000 sqft townhouse .. he need to worry about falling prices (if any) ..

but i feel he wants to cash in

they bot it in 07...and assuming all in prime districts, not much capital gain rite to sell now rite?

ask him how much % of cash his family is holding.....more den 20% is safe in my opinion:2cents:

highlighted in red: market dun crash meaning stays flat or rise further rite? how can they be happy?:confused:

[basic]

Cannot agree with you on the "no bailout" if bail out is necessary to save the country's banking system. If banks fail, we all will be hurt
MAS is not GOD to judge banks by justice, but a government agency who theoretically acts for the interest of the country and its people


be responsible...we cannot set such rule to bailout anyone....
they choose to operate this way....take S$Bil/yr of salary for so many yr, if default, want to use taxpayers' money, go & fly kite...

since day 1 they already know this is wrongdoing yet did it....if govt bail them out, then govt is the mastermind behind all these wrongdoing, then govt should be down instead.....

let see....will not be so simple...even in Spore....60.1% daft will be awaken this time..... :):)

[SpinCity]

Haha, even pty buyer want a higher risk premium.:doh: Looks like things going to get interesting...................

If you refer to me, I am not in the buying mode at the moment. Actually, just sold an investment property not long ago
Although been doing some shopping and viewing, I will need at least 20% discount from the current price to consider buying, or I would rather miss the boat

[avo7007]

I will need at least 20% discount from the current price to consider buying, or I would rather miss the boat

That's what i mean, a higher risk premium.........:) With higher risk premium, banks want higher interest rate and buyers want deeper discount. Seller kana double squeeze.

[devilplate]

Frankly, it is hard to sell now at the last transacted price unless priced to sell with a good discount (even 10% is not enough I reckon). May be too late.

May ask Teddy if your friend's units are in Prime location (D10 seems to be prime), high floor, good facing, and not rubbish according to his standard. He will buy at 10% discount of market price

r u currently selling a unit now? the resale market is not as bad as of last wk....last wk la....mabe today or tmr vy bad....hehe

i got offer for a unit at market px leh last wk....(test market) ....cant tell u which project hor....scarly the agt also reading this....LOL

[SpinCity]

yes, it is now very difficult to sell
when I started selling in late last year and early last year, alr had a feeling of that....
Yeap, put two on the market early this year, one got offers but below my target so I decided to keep; the other one got viewings but only one offer after quite a few months so I decided to let go even the offer was slightly below my target

[basic]

have u tried selling urself now? the resale market is not as bad as of last wk....
i got offer for a unit at market px leh last wk....(test market) ....cant tell u which project hor....scarly the agt also reading this....LOL


haha...LIAR KING.....slap yourself....:):)

[devilplate]

yes, it is now very difficult to sell
when I started selling in late last year and early last year, alr had a feeling of that....

mabe depends on projects and quantum?

[devilplate]

haha...LIAR KING.....slap yourself....:):)

???

u dun haf to resort to such comments rite?

nothing to post den keep quiet lor....if not u making a fool out of urself...LOL

[devilplate]

Yeap, put two on the market early this year, one got offers but below my target so I decided to keep; the other one got viewings but only one offer after quite a few months so I decided to let go even the offer was slightly below my target

ur target px is market px or 5-10% above market px?

and may i noe the quantum?

[SpinCity]

r u currently selling a unit now? the resale market is not as bad as of last wk....last wk la....mabe today or tmr vy bad....hehe

i got offer for a unit at market px leh last wk....(test market) ....cant tell u which project hor....scarly the agt also reading this....LOL
No, I am not selling now. decided to keep and wait. Hope it will not drop more than 50% as Basic predicted, hahahah

Yes, I think it is related to project and quantum. New developments with quantum around 1m+ shall be easier to move, I reckon

[SpinCity]

ur target px is market px or 5-10% above market px?

and may i noe the quantum?

Price was around market price, quantum was below 3m

[devilplate]

No, I am not selling now. decided to keep and wait. Hope it will not drop more than 50% as Basic predicted, hahahah

Yes, I think it is related to project and quantum. New developments with quantum around 1m+ shall be easier to move, I reckon

resale not as bad but hor its still bad hor....

offers dun come in so often liao.....and i tink its near impossible to get above market rate now

mabe i shd try to test market using one of my bigger sized and higher quantum unit ......i tink may only get jokers low balling....

[basic]

???

u dun haf to resort to such comments rite?

nothing to post den keep quiet lor....if not u making a fool out of urself...LOL

real liar king, hold tight tight with your big mortgage loan.....still hold so many....panic liao...hahahahaha...:):)

[devilplate]

Price was around market price, quantum was below 3m

below 3m meaning above 2.5mio? high quantum to me.....mabe not comparable bcoz the one i test was below 2mio

[SpinCity]

below 3m meaning above 2.5mio? high quantum to me.....mabe not comparable bcoz the one i test was below 2mio

Yes, now above 2.5m is hard to move. The lower the quantum, the easier to move. But this may change soon, just my opinion only

[devilplate]

If you refer to me, I am not in the buying mode at the moment. Actually, just sold an investment property not long ago
Although been doing some shopping and viewing, I will need at least 20% discount from the current price to consider buying, or I would rather miss the boat

slowly shop.....i started window shopping since 1yr plus :o

view so many landed ppty....till now haven buy any...LOL....den see px up and up....:banghead: LOL!!!!!!!!!!

[devilplate]

Yes, now above 2.5m is hard to move. The lower the quantum, the easier to move. But this may change soon, just my opinion only

bigger sized and higher quantum unit will get more popular only if LTV rise back to 80% and/or ppty px drop by 20-30% or more....:2cents:

[devilplate]

That's what i mean, a higher risk premium.........:) With higher risk premium, banks want higher interest rate and buyers want deeper discount. Seller kana double squeeze.

u nid more den tat to see gd correction

coe cat b drop by half at least and unemployment rate rise above 3%

cat B coe pls drop leh! next yr feb/march new bmw 3series launching liao! i want 328i!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[sh]

u nid more den tat to see gd correction

coe cat b drop by half at least and unemployment rate rise above 3%

cat B coe pls drop leh! next yr feb/march new bmw 3series launching liao! i want 328i!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

cat B drop by half.... buy car 1st.... hehehe....:D

[SpinCity]

bigger sized and higher quantum unit will get more popular only if LTV rise back to 80% and/or ppty px drop by 20-30% or more....:2cents:
Actually what I meant that the smaller and lower quantum units may become difficult to sell if economy turns south.

[samuelk]

u r too naive and innocent liao!!!

wats the point of spreading bear rumours in a bear forum????

sometimes things are not what it seems..

all in the name of research of course.

[dmonddd]

Downturn sentiments are obvious. Otherwise this forum won't be that exciting. If it's a clear cut uptrend I would not see such heated debates.

[dmonddd]

Same experience. I put up property in market since oct 2010. I was asking for a much higher psf but finally settled for a 3% discount in June 2011

Lucky because of buyer bought for p1 registration

It's a matter of how much margin one would want to let go
See the glass as half full instead of always looking at the glass half empty



Yeap, put two on the market early this year, one got offers but below my target so I decided to keep; the other one got viewings but only one offer after quite a few months so I decided to let go even the offer was slightly below my target

[dmonddd]

Advices to friends are great but when it involves $$$ always better to stay clear

Like I mentioned before I have seen 2 good buddies turned into enemies
Your friend has a point - more downside than upside
I see rent will be stressed going forward as developers will compete for tenants
Further tenants will be spoilt with choices or they already have plenty of choices. But any property can be rented out but at what price
And whether you can get a good tenant is another question and whether tenant will pay rent on time

So far I have not heard any bad experiences of landlord having terrible tenants



another friend just whatsapped me ..

asked for my view ... he has 2 units at D10.. total within the family they ahve 7 units .. though all rented out and bought in 2007 ..
they are thinking of selling .. to cash in and see how the mkt developes ..

if mkt falls ..they can pick up something better later ..
if mkt doesnt.. they are happy to have taken profit ..


i actually told him to keep ... since he only has 2 units . though both rented out .. since the family lives in a 7000 sqft townhouse .. he need to worry about falling prices (if any) ..

but i feel he wants to cash in

[Rosy]

Downturn sentiments are obvious. Otherwise this forum won't be that exciting. If it's a clear cut uptrend I would not see such heated debates.
This thread is hot due to one person

[dmonddd]

but others still debate with him

This thread is hot due to one person

[dmonddd]

my agent was telling me that majority of resale units are those un-tenanted


i thought otherwise. majority of resale units should be those tenanted

[dmonddd]

anyone finds the ura database slow.

Now its already 18 Nov and D11 showed only 2 transactions

[dmonddd]

d15 has 8 transactions on condo/apartment..better

[buttercarp]

anyone finds the ura database slow.

Now its already 18 Nov and D11 showed only 2 transactions

Extremely delayed and slow.
Look at Luxus hills.... i tot all units of phase 5 sold out, but only 1 transaction reflected in the caveat lodged.

[dmonddd]

D10 also has 8 transactions - not bad?

[Rosy]

Extremely delayed and slow.
Look at Luxus hills.... i tot all units of phase 5 sold out, but only 1 transaction reflected in the caveat lodged.
Developer sales take longer time than resale

[dtrax]

d15 has 8 transactions on condo/apartment..better

Is not URA DB slow, is the info you have on hand not accurate enough based on public info by URA. First 4 days of NOV already close to 100 caveats log

[dmonddd]

info from URA.

looking at wrong link? i'm looking at district-by-district, not singapore in total


Is not URA DB slow, is the info you have on hand not accurate enough based on public info by URA. First 4 days of NOV already close to 100 caveats log

[dtrax]

info from URA.

looking at wrong link? i'm looking at district-by-district, not singapore in total

ah i see, more than 10 for D10 as I can see

[dtrax]

anyone finds the ura database slow.

Now its already 18 Nov and D11 showed only 2 transactions

You're right on this one, 2 transactions so far

[dmonddd]

ah i see, more than 10 for D10 as I can see

10 if including the landed
8 transactions only on condo/apartment

i cant ascertain if lower transactions compared to other months are due to
1) slower updates in URA database
2)market is slow

checking if same for other favorite districts

[Arcachon]

http://youtu.be/07N-Pxdm1Qg

[basic]

he predicts S&P to hit 700 next yr, in 3/2009 low is 666, STI at 1465...so if STI can go back to 1500 in 2012....then will see STI below 1000 in 2013....quite close to my call of property price down>50% in 2-3 yrs time...
will see property down >30-40% in early 2013....>50-60% in 2014....after that....talk later....



Bob Janjuah: “Germany Will Walk, And The S&P Will Undershoot To 700 In 2012″


November 18th, 2011

From Bob Janjuah of RBSNomura




1 – My secular views remain unchanged. I see no (fundamental) developments or market (price action) developments that warrant a change of view. My very negative view of the latest (late October (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bob-his-bearish-best-fudge-fantasy-and-fiction-my-target-sp-remains-800900)) round of eurozone “shock and awe? appears to have been quite accurate. All those European policymakers and sell-side commentators who told us on 27-28 October to great fanfare that the solution was now finally in place and that it was now “all fixed?, seem to have gone extremely quiet. The October deal was, as I said in my previous note, a confidence trick that has failed. And as a result it has made things a lot worse. At some point I hope that enough lessons will have been learnt, and we can finally move into the long endgame – hard (non-voluntary) default in the eurozone. Q1 2012 and the €80bn payment to Greece should be the focal point.


2 – My short-term view is also proving correct. Since the 27-28 October meeting, it has been a bad month for risk, especially in the case of peripheral eurozone debt, French debt, credit spreads, and the euro itself. Also as forecast, the dollar has done well, as have core government bond yields (bunds, USTs and Gilts). I expand further on my short-term view in point 2 below, as there are some very short-term risks to the views I set out in my last note regarding the very back end of 2011.

[basic]

I think this is a good advice, hide for few yrs, enjoy a easy life....German controlled Euro, then controlled the world now....they are tough & discipline people, they live within their mean, they have principle...unlike those rubbish keep printing $$ to live easy life....
so Germany will stay strong to defend the right value for the world to remember...those print easy $$ will be rubbish in history....



Deutsche Bank: If Merkel Doesn’t Budge, ‘Our Investment Advice Is To Dig A Hole In The Ground And Hide’


November 18th, 2011



Line of the day from Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid on Angela Merkel (http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/angela-merkel), and German refusal to back ECB bond buying…

[basic]

7% interest for Italy & 250% interest of Greece....you think they can pay next yr if they borrow now?? problem of kick can down the road, can will become each time each week, month & yr....
Spore hard to survive with 1% interest rate...you think Italy can survive 7%? Spore economy so weak, can even hike rate above 1%??....

pay out 7%+pricinciple next yr...got money...thye are bankrupt now, all know, so desperate, got money grab now, but they know what are they doing today?? DONT KNOW...like borrow from big ear....end result, DEBT bubble even bigger then burst.....

China will be hit harder by Euro zone than US...also emerging country & Asia stock market will perform even worse than Europe...so what to expect in STI & Property?.....


施羅德：意債4厘已難捱

近日意大利10年期國債孳息推升，一度令環球股市急挫。施羅德投資首席經濟 師Keith Wade強調：「不要說7厘，意大利長期來說難以承受其10年期國債孳息率處4厘水平。若沒有有效拯救方案出台，明年意國或出現債務違約。」他補充，倘若 歐元區進入衰退，中國的受影響程度會較美國大，因中國對歐元區的出口貨值高，佔中國GDP約7%，美國對歐元區出口貨值，則只佔其GDP約2%。



新興市短線表現料遜歐美

Keith Wade指，環球經濟的衰退風險仍然存在，而全球股市近月跌勢已反映經濟衰退，其中英美不少高息股具防守性，有吸納價值，但看淡新興市場股票。

[basic]

is below indicate that next week US budget deficit will not be closed by next wednesday?.....then get ready for US rating downgrade by S&P next week....followed by big plunged in stock market....let see....



BREAKING: House rejects balanced-budget amendment, failed on a vote of 261-165 – Marketwatch


November 18th, 2011
[/URL]


By Robert Schroeder
WASHINGTON ([URL="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/house-rejects-balanced-budget-amendment-2011-11-18-135960?link=MW_home_latest_news"]MarketWatch (http://forums.condosingapore.com/)) — House lawmakers rejected a balanced-budget amendment to the Constitution on Friday, in a fresh example of the partisan battle over fiscal issues in Congress. The amendment, which needed a two-thirds majority to pass, failed on a vote of 261-165.

[basic]

this news seem not important but think of it under current no money & high unemployment in western world, many business will be closing down, default bank payment & suppliers' payment....this increases bank burden on sovereign debt, also their suppliers' mainly are asian, china & spore....

this is single case now, will spread fast once triggered by bank to tighten credit & loan due to write off & bad debt by PIIGS, France & many....


General Maritime filed for bankruptcy yesterday. So far it has been treated as a non event, but it may actually be start of another wave of bank write-downs


November 18th, 2011


Via Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors (http://www.tfmarketadvisors.com/)
General Maritime filed for bankruptcy yesterday. So far it has been treated as a non event, but it may actually be start of another wave of bank write-downs.
The shipping industry still relies heavily on the banks for financing.


You can see that of the 1.5 billion of debt, the majority of it is in loan form. This is important because many of the banks will have held this loan and other shipping loans at par. The better banks will have taken provisions against these positions, but the weakest banks are (once again) the most likely to have hoped for the best and not marked their exposure to market.
Since General Maritime is now in default, those loans will have to be written down. That isn’t a big deal, but will banks be forced to take provisions against their other shipping loans? A lot of shipping loans would trade well below par. The banks that avoided taking charges before may have to now that one of the loans has defaulted. This could create a wave of selling and another source of losses for banks in the near term.
And guess who is involved in shipping lending? All the usual suspects….

[basic]

4 months seems far these days...too mny thing may explode within 4 months...this just for information, many US town, city, state are on the way...don't surprise when suddenly pop up, US is bankrupt...why dont they just print now & give to all states?? so easy, but can they??....
same here all the printed $$ are tied into all these debt....once 1 down, all will be down, systematic risk is super high.....


Economist: Detroit Will Default In 4 Months


November 18th, 2011
Tweet (http://twitter.com/share) [/URL]


[URL="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-18/eu-banks-face-270-billion-goodwill-hangover-for-past-purchases.html"]EU Banks Face $270 Billion Goodwill Hangover for Past Purchases (http://forums.condosingapore.com/)
Illinois Gets $1 Billion Surprise as Pension Demands Jump (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-18/illinois-gets-1-billion-surprise-as-pension-demands-jump.html)
Egypt May Seek $3 Billion Loan From IMF as Debt Costs Soar (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-18/egypt-may-seek-3-billion-loan-from-imf-as-debt-costs-soar.html)
Virginia faces potential budget shortfall of $1 billion (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/nov/17/virginia-faces-potential-budget-shortfall-of-1-bil/)
Spain’s ‘Unsellable’ Real-Estate Assets Threaten Smaller Banks (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/11/18/bloomberg_articlesLUTEJU1A1I4H.DTL)
Forecast: Washington faces nearly $1.4B deficit (http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9R2N7102.htm)
Detroit City Council rushing to devise harder-hitting plan (http://www.freep.com/article/20111118/NEWS01/111180424/Detroit-City-Council-rushing-devise-harder-hitting-plan?odyssey=mod%7Cnewswell%7Ctext%7CFRONTPAGE%7Cs)(Could run out of cash by April)
Economist: Detroit Will Default In 4 Months (http://www.wlky.com/r/29797372/detail.html)
America’s Oldest Old: 90-Year-Old Population Is Booming (http://healthland.time.com/2011/11/18/americas-oldest-old-90-year-old-population-is-booming/)
Portugal Heading for ‘Shock’ Year as Crisis Deepens: Euro Credit (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/11/18/bloomberg_articlesLUUMXB1A74E9.DTL)
Marin County: Pension tab forces service cutbacks (http://www.marinij.com/marinnews/ci_19358438)
Property values in metro Detroit down but not taxes, analysis shows (http://www.freep.com/article/20111118/NEWS05/111180394/Property-values-metro-Detroit-down-not-taxes-analysis-shows?odyssey=tab%7Ctopnews%7Ctext%7CFRONTPAGE)
Italian Banks May Need $8.2 Billion in Capital (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-18/italian-banks-may-need-8-2-billion-more-capital-as-government-bonds-slump.html)
$600 million still missing in MF Global books:WSJ (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/600-million-still-missing-in-mf-global-bookswsj-2011-11-18)

[basic]

within next 3 weeks, S&P will have big downgrade on global banks from Asia to Europe to US.....question here will our 3 local banks in the list?? with their 1% interest spread for past few yrs & >60% of total loan are property loan, super high risk in coming global crisis & recession, they should be downgraded....let see.....



銀行3周內爆驚變

繼日前惠譽警告美國銀行業或受累歐債危機蔓延，外電報道，評級機構標準普爾計劃在3周內檢討全球30家大型銀行的評級。分析員揣測美銀、花旗及部分歐洲銀行會遭降級，而且部分降級或會大出市場意料，故有機會令本已惶恐不安的全球債市進一步陷入恐慌。


滙控外圍低見58.4

受歐債危機可能拖累部分銀行信貸評級的負面影響，手持55億美元歐豬五國債務風險的滙控昨日股價失守60元關口，由於滙控所持歐債風險敞口大。標普即將公布的全球三十大銀行的最新評級，市場相信滙控將會榜上有名。

[Komo]

...that's the nature of shipping business, but with so many big ones going bankrupt believe is quite unheard of. Not just bankers, many suppliers and ship service providers etc will be hit hard as well, impact will likely be far and deep. :o

[hyenergix]

within next 3 weeks, S&P will have big downgrade on global banks from Asia to Europe to US.....question here will our 3 local banks in the list?? with their 1% interest spread for past few yrs & >60% of total loan are property loan, super high risk in coming global crisis & recession, they should be downgraded....let see.....



銀行3周內爆驚變

繼日前惠譽警告美國銀行業或受累歐債危機蔓延，外電報道，評級機構標準普爾計劃在3周內檢討全球30家大型銀行的評級。分析員揣測美銀、花旗及部分歐洲銀行會遭降級，而且部分降級或會大出市場意料，故有機會令本已惶恐不安的全球債市進一步陷入恐慌。


滙控外圍低見58.4

受歐債危機可能拖累部分銀行信貸評級的負面影響，手持55億美元歐豬五國債務風險的滙控昨日股價失守60元關口，由於滙控所持歐債風險敞口大。標普即將公布的全球三十大銀行的最新評級，市場相信滙控將會榜上有名。

Downgrading our local banks is an insult to the power behind them! Get ready to drink kopi :tsk-tsk:

[amk]

but we (banking sector) know whats going on ... and the fear is real .. more will be on the road ...
..

Obviously with euro crisis, bankers are all worried. They are worried not because of SG fundamentals. But because of external factors, that will eventually hit SG hard. Among my expat friends who have bought SG pties, none is selling. But all expect price to stagnant or drop a bit, but not crash. One said would be 5%. And mortgage lending will be tightened, especially by foreign banks. That means spread will go up. SIBOR will stay low, but new loan spreads will move up. That's why it's good to secure throughout low spreads.

Bankers' real concern is Euro. SG property price level by itself reflects its status as 2nd HK. Rich chinese buying is real. The recent nassim trade was done by a Chinese. However if euro tanks, SG as a trading base will be hit hard. But this euro game has not been fully played out yet. Every one is betting ECB will do it at the very very last minute

[avo7007]

Downgrading our local banks is an insult to the power behind them! Get ready to drink kopi :tsk-tsk:

Financial opinions are now against the law?:scared-5: Are you kidding me?:doh:

[DC33_2008]

3 local banks will become two banks. Surely you will know which are the two bank?
Cannot agree with you on the "no bailout" if bail out is necessary to save the country's banking system. If banks fail, we all will be hurt
MAS is not GOD to judge banks by justice, but a government agency who theoretically acts for the interest of the country and its people

[DC33_2008]

Have stayed out of shipping related shares for a long while.
...that's the nature of shipping business, but with so many big ones going bankrupt believe is quite unheard of. Not just bankers, many suppliers and ship service providers etc will be hit hard as well, impact will likely be far and deep. :o

[basic]

MAS yesterday already said interest rate is on the way up now...probably they heard S&P going to downgrade many global banks, definitely all 3 local banks are in very bad position on interest spread of 1%, global standard is 4%, lost big big in last few yrs....
US FED at 0% rate, mortgage loan is 4.5%...HKD ties to US$, housing loan also at 4%....for Spore housing loan rate at 4% is norm, may not be profitable...
All the 3 banks should hike mortgage loan to 4% immediately....
for the past few yrs 1% loan...they have to find way fast before foreign fund whack them hard or downgrade them....package them & sell away....



資金貴渣打再加按息

繼九月底之後，渣打香港再度宣布調高按揭息率，下周一起銀行同業拆息（H） 按揭計劃息率，由H加2至2.5厘，調整為H加2.5至3厘，為現有提供H按銀行中最高，而該行最優惠利率（P）按揭計劃息率，則調整為P減2至2.4 厘。有銀行主管表示，至年底按息依然有上漲空間。

[hyenergix]

Financial opinions are now against the law?:scared-5: Are you kidding me?:doh:

Juz joking here :D Our 3 local banks will not go down unless HDB prices go down drastically. All r interlinked to govt policies.

[basic]

be responsible...we cannot set such rule to bailout anyone....
they choose to operate this way....take S$Bil/yr of salary for so many yr, if default, want to use taxpayers' money, go & fly kite...

since day 1 they already know this is wrongdoing yet did it....if govt bail them out, then govt is the mastermind behind all these wrongdoing, then govt should be down instead.....

let see....will not be so simple...even in Spore....60.1% daft will be awaken this time.....:):)


If recession hit in next 1-2 yrs, property price plunges, local banks loan out tons of mortgage at 1% in big trouble....bank default, NO BAILOUT from govt.....let them die....
If govt bailout, pay them $mil salary again, then govt is robbing taxpayers' money....will have way to deal with this....
when porperty bubble burst....all money evaporated....DEBT is still there...If property price average down 50%, how much wealth wipe of, anyway these wealth come from thin air & no where too.....eventually wealth wipe off, still need to pay for debt for the rest of the life....
the world in next few yrs will be totally different from now & before....jobless, cut pay...deflation cycle cut in.....next yr is a better time to discuss on this......:)

[basic]

MAS yesterday already said interest rate is on the way up now...probably they heard S&P going to downgrade many global banks, definitely all 3 local banks are in very bad position on interest spread of 1%, global standard is 4%, lost big big in last few yrs....
US FED at 0% rate, mortgage loan is 4.5%...HKD ties to US$, housing loan also at 4%....for Spore housing loan rate at 4% is norm, may not be profitable...
All the 3 banks should hike mortgage loan to 4% immediately....
for the past few yrs 1% loan...they have to find way fast before foreign fund whack them hard or downgrade them....package them & sell away....



資金貴渣打再加按息

繼九月底之後，渣打香港再度宣布調高按揭息率，下周一起銀行同業拆息（H） 按揭計劃息率，由H加2至2.5厘，調整為H加2.5至3厘，為現有提供H按銀行中最高，而該行最優惠利率（P）按揭計劃息率，則調整為P減2至2.4 厘。有銀行主管表示，至年底按息依然有上漲空間。


MAS said spore rate follow US at 0.25%...then US mortgage rate at 4.5%-5%, why not follow??...
anyway....rate is on the way up now....let say eventually same as HK & US at 4% NEXT YEAR to avoid S&P & BIS or .....investigation....for a hike of 3% for every $1mil loan is $2.5k/m extra on interest part only.....not bad....monthly payment around S$6k/m, rental can cover??.....haha....
more to come in 2013.....hope to see an explosive one...double digits....

[DC33_2008]

Old timers have gone through all this. Younger investors with no deep pockets have to be prepared for it if it comes. There are already vultures out there looking asking for discount. They must be crazy. Not time yet.
MAS said spore rate follow US at 0.25%...then US mortgage rate at 4.5%-5%, why not follow??...
anyway....rate is on the way up now....let say eventually same as HK & US at 4% NEXT YEAR to avoid S&P & BIS or .....investigation....for a hike of 3% for every $1mil loan is $2.5k/m extra on interest part only.....not bad....monthly payment around S$6k/m, rental can cover??.....haha....
more to come in 2013.....hope to see an explosive one...double digits....

[dmonddd]

sentiments now similar to pre 2008

[devilplate]

MAS said spore rate follow US at 0.25%...then US mortgage rate at 4.5%-5%, why not follow??...
anyway....rate is on the way up now....let say eventually same as HK & US at 4% NEXT YEAR to avoid S&P & BIS or .....investigation....for a hike of 3% for every $1mil loan is $2.5k/m extra on interest part only.....not bad....monthly payment around S$6k/m, rental can cover??.....haha....
more to come in 2013.....hope to see an explosive one...double digits....

so u r trying to say our banks cook their accounts isit?

u guys deposit $$ in banks and banks gives u how much int rate?? tink deeper....LOL

i can truly understand ur plight la......inflation 4-5% den ur poor little cash earning <0.5%......

[dmon]

If risks are higher this translates into higher lending rates
Deposit rates will go up mopping liquidity from market ?

So Monthly instalments will go up with pressure for higher rent? But if tenants are spolit with choices older projects will not allow for increase in rents but instead pressures rent to go down. Is that the case now? or coming soon ? Or will not happen?

[dmon]

If risks are higher this translates into higher lending rates
Deposit rates will go up mopping liquidity from market ?

So Monthly instalments will go up with pressure for higher rent? But if tenants are spolit with choices older projects will not allow for increase in rents but instead pressures rent to go down. Is that the case now? or coming soon ? Or will not happen?

[devilplate]

If risks are higher this translates into higher lending rates
Deposit rates will go up mopping liquidity from market ?

So Monthly instalments will go up with pressure for higher rent? But if tenants are spolit with choices older projects will not allow for increase in rents but instead pressures rent to go down. Is that the case now? or coming soon ? Or will not happen?

spreads shd go up.....'normal' spread shd be 1.25%+- and not the current ridiculously low 0.65-0.8%......

[devilplate]

can take a look at sgs bonds.....
http://www.fundsupermart.com/main/sgs/SGShome.tpl

0-5yrs maturity all gives less den 1%.....LOL....cheap $$$$$$$$

[dmon]

can take a look at sgs bonds.....
http://www.fundsupermart.com/main/sgs/SGShome.tpl

0-5yrs maturity all gives less den 1%.....LOL....cheap $$$$$$$$


Any new bonds issue of late?
Or corporates are getting financing through equity or loans?

[devilplate]

Any new bonds issue of late?
Or corporates are getting financing through equity or loans?

remember recent hdb bonds? ridiculously low also all snapped up....LOL

too much liquidity in the market for now

i suspect banks got too much cash also......this whole yr haf been receiving calls asking me to take personal loan....LOL

[dmon]

remember recent hdb bonds? ridiculously low also all snapped up....LOL

Not hdb as those are sovereign risk rated

I m referring to corporates. Developers will be one good corporate example

[devilplate]

http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10296p.nsf/PressReleases/04B6373A2627F6B04825794A00218279?OpenDocument

The issuance comprises a S$600 million, 7-year Fixed Rate Notes issue with a coupon of 1.83% per annum payable semi-annually in arrear.

[devilplate]

Not hdb as those are sovereign risk rated

I m referring to corporates. Developers will be one good corporate example

i am toking abt how our local banks can borrow cheap $$$

banks can get from our govt:D

[devilplate]

Not hdb as those are sovereign risk rated

I m referring to corporates. Developers will be one good corporate example

tat day AMK mentioned on Olam bond mah....i tink got 7-9% rite......u can try and buy some....hehee

[dmon]

i am toking abt how our local banks can borrow cheap $$$

banks can get from our govt:D
Bonds indirectly funded by depositors. Bank trades in $$$
Get deposits from depositors individual or corporates and with a bit of capital, lend out $$$ to individual or corporate and also hold some corporate or gahmen bonds for trading

Gahmen fins banks? I don't see how. Probably I don't know banking business well enough. Pardon me

[dmon]

tat day AMK mentioned on Olam bond mah....i tink got 7-9% rite......u can try and buy some....hehee

Olam has trading mainly in agri products
There will be food shortage
Outlook should be better than developers
Developers if issue bonds - will it be priced higher than olam's?

[devilplate]

Bonds indirectly funded by depositors. Bank trades in $$$
Get deposits from depositors individual or corporates and with a bit of capital, lend out $$$ to individual or corporate and also hold some corporate or gahmen bonds for trading

Gahmen fins banks? I don't see how. Probably I don't know banking business well enough. Pardon me

indirectly bro.....

http://www.sgs.gov.sg/pub_guide/faqs/publ_faqindinvestors.html

[devilplate]

Olam has trading mainly in agri products
There will be food shortage
Outlook should be better than developers
Developers if issue bonds - will it be priced higher than olam's?

u better PM AMK

i nvr buy any bonds at all! LOL.....last time bot some fixed income UTs.....boliao one...LOL

[dmon]

Corporate can do fixed Rate bond or floating rate notes for fund raising.
Depend on their view of future interest rate
Or they can later do a derivative interest structure

Trend now - fixed or floating rate?
Why?

[dmon]

indirectly bro.....

http://www.sgs.gov.sg/pub_guide/faqs/publ_faqindinvestors.html
I don't understand how gahmen funds banks indirectly. Anyone can explain ?

[dmon]

http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10296p.nsf/PressReleases/04B6373A2627F6B04825794A00218279?OpenDocument

The issuance comprises a S$600 million, 7-year Fixed Rate Notes issue with a coupon of 1.83% per annum payable semi-annually in arrear.


$600 million out from system soon and will be with gahmen? Safe investment

[devilplate]

$600 million out from system soon and will be with gahmen? Safe investment

this shows too much liquidity out there still.....

[SpinCity]

Obviously with euro crisis, bankers are all worried. They are worried not because of SG fundamentals. But because of external factors, that will eventually hit SG hard. Among my expat friends who have bought SG pties, none is selling. But all expect price to stagnant or drop a bit, but not crash. One said would be 5%. And mortgage lending will be tightened, especially by foreign banks. That means spread will go up. SIBOR will stay low, but new loan spreads will move up. That's why it's good to secure throughout low spreads.

Bankers' real concern is Euro. SG property price level by itself reflects its status as 2nd HK. Rich chinese buying is real. The recent nassim trade was done by a Chinese. However if euro tanks, SG as a trading base will be hit hard. But this euro game has not been fully played out yet. Every one is betting ECB will do it at the very very last minute
Your friends' expectation of stagnant price or 5% drop is as good a guess as someone else's 50% crash, we will only know when it is behind us

Agree with you on the interest rate. SIBOR will somehow be contained but spread will definitely go up to reflect the changes in banks' risk appetite. I think some banks now still offer 70 to 100 bps spread for mortgage, it MAY be the last chance to lock in now, especially those who are on board rate.

[devilplate]

Your friends' expectation of stagnant price or 5% drop is as good a guess as someone else's 50% crash, we will only know when it is behind us

Agree with you on the interest rate. SIBOR will somehow be contained but spread will definitely go up to reflect the changes in banks' risk appetite. I think some banks now still offer 70 to 100 bps spread for mortgage, it MAY be the last chance to lock in now, especially those who are on board rate.

sianz....most of my loan deal done when spread was 1-1.25%:banghead:

btw u got the idea liao which i highlighted in red? when we say expecting 5-10% correction and its no big deal if we guessed it rite......however, we can be famous overnite if market really crash >50% when we predicted it to be:rolleyes:

[SpinCity]

MAS said spore rate follow US at 0.25%...then US mortgage rate at 4.5%-5%, why not follow??...
anyway....rate is on the way up now....let say eventually same as HK & US at 4% NEXT YEAR to avoid S&P & BIS or .....investigation....for a hike of 3% for every $1mil loan is $2.5k/m extra on interest part only.....not bad....monthly payment around S$6k/m, rental can cover??.....haha....
more to come in 2013.....hope to see an explosive one...double digits....
If you know really know US mortgage product, you shall know that the 4.5%-5% is most likely the FIXED RATE for the tenure of 15-30 years of the mortgage. You can't compare that with the mortgage products in Singapore

[dmon]

this shows too much liquidity out there still.....
Too much now or last month or last week
Liquidity may be tight next week

I am not privy to the level of liquidity frankly.
So these few words ' too much liquidity ' may not be true at different point in time
I for one am guilty of using these words when in tcs with buddies when I don't know is the market liquid or illiquid

Maybe after this issuance and few more, market dries up but thank god $$$ all with one spender ie gahmen who sees the big picture.

[dmon]

One banker buddy can't tell me the extent of impact
Even his seniors can't tell him. Everyone sees bit of the whole picture like a jigsaw puzzle. Only one knows well, has all industries numbers and one who can talk to anyone in the country and others in foreign countries. Guess who?
Everyone's else guess is as good as yours and mine



Obviously with euro crisis, bankers are all worried. They are worried not because of SG fundamentals. But because of external factors, that will eventually hit SG hard. Among my expat friends who have bought SG pties, none is selling. But all expect price to stagnant or drop a bit, but not crash. One said would be 5%. And mortgage lending will be tightened, especially by foreign banks. That means spread will go up. SIBOR will stay low, but new loan spreads will move up. That's why it's good to secure throughout low spreads.

Bankers' real concern is Euro. SG property price level by itself reflects its status as 2nd HK. Rich chinese buying is real. The recent nassim trade was done by a Chinese. However if euro tanks, SG as a trading base will be hit hard. But this euro game has not been fully played out yet. Every one is betting ECB will do it at the very very last minute

[devilplate]

Too much now or last month or last week
Liquidity may be tight next week

I am not privy to the level of liquidity frankly.
So these few words ' too much liquidity ' may not be true at different point in time
I for one am guilty of using these words when in tcs with buddies when I don't know is the market liquid or illiquid

Maybe after this issuance and few more, market dries up but thank god $$$ all with one spender ie gahmen who sees the big picture.

govt also duno how how liquid the market is now.....only way is to test it by issuing bonds......:2cents:

just like how to measure whether CM is too little or too harsh? only way is to test it....LOL....:hell-hath-no-fury:

[devilplate]

btw u got the idea liao which i highlighted in red? when we say expecting 5-10% correction and its no big deal if we guessed it rite......however, we can be famous overnite if market really crash >50% when we predicted it to be:rolleyes:

internet TOK is CHEAP!!!

almost everyone over here feels tat ppty px will either drop or stays flat rite?

i predict >50% increase within 2-3yrs!!!! time will tell....LOL:D

[SpinCity]

remember recent hdb bonds? ridiculously low also all snapped up....LOL

too much liquidity in the market for now

i suspect banks got too much cash also......this whole yr haf been receiving calls asking me to take personal loan....LOL

Liquidity is definitely out there, but why it prefer the HDB 1.83% MTN to investing in properties?
Before the 2008 financial crisis there were institutional investors snapping up developments by blocks, but you don't see much institutional investors participate in the property boom post financial crisis. It is driven by local retail investors, and many rich Chinese from China. It will be interesting to see if another recession does come, how these investors react to it