View Full Version : Andy Xie says China property to drop 70% going forward....
Geylang OKT
08-10-11, 06:59
China’s Real Estate Market Running out of Steam
By Gao Zitan
Sep 30, 2011 Last Updated: Oct 2, 2011
Empty apartment buildings are reflected in a window in the city of Ordos, Inner Mongolia on Sept. 12, 2011. The city which is referred to as a 'Ghost Town' due to it's lack of people, is being built to house 1.5 million inhabitants. (Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty Images)
Andy Xie, former Morgan Stanley “star” chief Asia-Pacific economist, has been warning about a real estate bubble in China since 2002 and predicted that China's real estate market will collapse in 2012.
All the conditions for a real estate collapse in China seem to be in place: there’s a glut of unsold homes, prices are ski-high, and money supply is tight.
China presently has 16 billion square meters (170 billion square feet) of unsold new homes.
Many Chinese with money have invested in the booming real estate market in recent years. They bought multiple homes or apartments, which they could never rent, believing that the market would keep going up indefinitely, and their investments would pan out.
New real estate regulations earlier this year put a stop to this sort of speculation. Now families in some major cities are allowed to buy only one extra home beside their own residence.
In addition, China’s central bank keeps tightening monetary supply to curb inflation, making it hard for almost anyone to get bank loans, except through loan sharks at exorbitant rates.
Xie, who accurately predicted the crash of Hong Kong’s property market and the Asian financial crisis, advises all his Chinese friends to sell their vacant rental properties—even at reduced prices if needed, he told Tianfu Morning News recently.
Although home prices have not decreased significantly, sales have slowed. According to Xie, China’s housing market will keep decreasing, and he expects prices to drop dramatically.
“While the real estate market in the whole world is slumping, only China expects it to stay hot for long. In fact, it is not an exaggeration [to say] that China’s property prices may drop 70 percent in the future,” Xie said.
Xie said despite the great numbers of shutdowns by small and medium-sized enterprises putting pressure on Beijing to ease the tight money lending policy, it won’t happen any time soon. Against the backdrop of long-term inflation, the money shortage won’t become any better this year, or the next, he said, and the property market will thus be severely affected.
Xie said many real estate developers at present have the attitude that they can hold on for a few months, and when the monetary policy eases, they will push land prices up again. They even take out loans with interest rates of 30 to 40 percent.
“But once the monetary policy continues to tighten, a lot of developers are facing closures,” Xie warned.
The Beijing Real Estate Trade Management Website, a state website providing housing information, shows a 22.9 percent drop in pre-owned home sales for August as compared to July, and a 29.6 percent drop compared to the same period last year. Compared to 2009, sales dropped 64 percent, reaching their lowest point since 2009.
According to the latest data released by China’s Index Research Institute (IRI) on Sept. 21, among 35 cities monitored, the turnover of properties in 20 cities dropped compared to last year, with drop rates in 12 cities being more than 30 percent. For major cities, only Wuhan saw a rise, but all the rest dropped, and most of them dropped more than 50 percent compared to the same period last year.
The IRI report also showed a downslide in the land market, pointing to a sharp drop of land supply last week.
According to IRI, the 20 major cities monitored “released” 197 lots of land for sale last week, 63 fewer than the previous week. The total land area for sale decreased by nearly 50 percent.
Xie said at present, the supply of new homes in China has reached 16 billion square meters (170 billion square feet). In addition, developers are holding three billion square meters of land.
“Only when developers drop home prices to the level that first-time buyers can afford, will the surplus of homes be sold,” he said. “It means that prices of houses should drop significantly.”
Andy Xie is the greatest bear of China property market.
I read many of his articles. Since mid 2000s, he has been making the same call.
I would say he is a great economist in term of analysis.
If u hv time, pick up some of his books in China, worth reading
I'm one of his fans. His analysis opens up my mind to look at things in broader perspective and over a longer time frame. The major problem with his analysis is like physics: you change the property of the variable you are trying to measure accurately. Government intervention sometimes invalidate or delay his predictions.
How timely for him to announce this piece of news. He has been trying so hard since 2002. The stars are pointing in his favour finally. Woalah. The greatest bear of all times.
How timely for him to announce this piece of news. He has been trying so hard since 2002. The stars are pointing in his favour finally. Woalah. The greatest bear of all times.
At least his other predictions turned out correct ;) Anyway his job is not to tell you what will happen (you din pay for it), but probably to create more publicity for his company and services. As long as they generate controversies, that is good enough marketing.
Enough postings for today. Back to study and work :(
In China, one has to be aware of their culture.
Other than tier 1 cities, China people hardly want to buy a second -hand property even the property is nvr occupied before. They will only want to buy direct from the developers as first hand.
This is one of the contributing factors why there are so many unoccupied ghost towns or buildings in the tier 2 cities or sub-urban areas.
kingkong1984
08-10-11, 09:09
Dun they have a one home policy in some cities? Read somewhere leh..
Anyway, greed is the precursor to your temptation and donation. Wonderful g...
Quite a lot of them are buying with cash. One of my friend who is working for a developer mentioned that the money counting machine stalled due to overheating as people are bringing in loads of cash to purchase house. Some may be just washing their money.
China
Foreign ownership : only can buy one, in the city of work after producing one year of income statement and tax paid
Tier 1 cities : only two units per household
Tier 2 cities : quite a no number of cities also implemented the same controls
Also there is LTV controls
won't the bigger problem be the 1 child policy?
who is going to buy,stay and rent these properties in the future?
Where is China going to import from? unlike Singapore.
the only thing going is right only abt 60% of China's population is urbanised.
http://www.economist.com/node/21531523
Shorting China
Panda bears
Betting against China is in vogue
Mr Hendry’s “short China” fund was reportedly up by nearly 40% in the year to August.
==================
When there are so many bears, maybe we can start to buy.
Leader is trading at P/E of 3.
Thanks,
Richard
http://www.economist.com/node/21531523
Shorting China
Panda bears
Betting against China is in vogue
Mr Hendry’s “short China” fund was reportedly up by nearly 40% in the year to August.
==================
When there are so many bears, maybe we can start to buy.
Leader is trading at P/E of 3.
Thanks,
Richard
if u short DAX, FTSR, HSI from June till now, u hv a very better return than that
I have followed Andy's recommendations for several years now and he has made some very bad calls. He called for a sell on global equities when they were at the very bottom in 2009.
I am sure he is a smart guy but take what he says with a pinch of salt. He is no Warren
He's a great economist but poor equity strategist.
He's a great economist but poor equity strategist.
So far, he only made two good calls if not wrong.
Those follow him particularly the China property market....hated him so much.
But he is a good economist, and can learn quite a lot from his books
One should collate information from experts and analyse carefully but the bottomline is investor's call. I am sure each expert has good concepts or strategic views. The dynamics and volatility of the market makes investment more difficult and plus the sentiment factor of humans makes it even more complex.
So far, he only made two good calls if not wrong.
Those follow him particularly the China property market....hated him so much.
But he is a good economist, and can learn quite a lot from his books
phantom_opera
09-10-11, 13:12
Good economists having long term view normally is bad short term trader, people like Jim rogers openly admitted he is 'very bad short term traders'
Everybody knows China is riding a tiger called 'property bubble' but the question is when would the person fall off the tiger? Price may go from 1000psf to 10,000psf then falls 70% like the Japanese property bubble right?
IMO if the price to annual rental income rises to 50 and stay for a few years, it could means bubble about to burst !!! So if your HDB resale price is 600k and net annual rental income is 20k, the ratio is about 30 only but if price goes to 1 million ... hey hey ;)
I thought it is a dragon. Can climb higher and gone two horns to hold tight too. No one can deny that China will overtake US to be no. 1 if you see how they buy things from US and around the world. Look at how Japan boom and doom. It is cyclical. Emerging markets, BRICS, is good to look out for.
Good economists having long term view normally is bad short term trader, people like Jim rogers openly admitted he is 'very bad short term traders'
Everybody knows China is riding a tiger called 'property bubble' but the question is when would the person fall off the tiger? Price may go from 1000psf to 10,000psf then falls 70% like the Japanese property bubble right?
IMO if the price to annual rental income rises to 50 and stay for a few years, it could means bubble about to burst !!! So if your HDB resale price is 600k and net annual rental income is 20k, the ratio is about 30 only but if price goes to 1 million ... hey hey ;)
Shanghai colleagues saying that there are so many bad loans that onshore banks see a significant probability of a hardlanding in China and commented that most foreign banks are very complacent about the situation in China... i was a China bull now a bit scary, must we all park our money in US Treasury?
blackjack21trader
10-10-11, 11:36
The present world financial system is based on the German Kings during ancient times. Even the bulk of present day US financial system was invented by them through the immigration of Germans during WW2. If you were not their bloodline, there is no way your wealth will grow like their present day descedants. Well, maybe a way to do it is to married into the families of the world bankers. However, this manner is most unlikely because :
1) Our grandfathers were not rich
2) Our ancestor's royal bloodlines (like from Qin Shuh Huang ) are not recognised by this present day world banking system.
But at least there exist a present arbitrage opportunity that maybe you can try to squeeze into this class.
The answer is to be a Lion City landlord.
Good Luck.
神龙股侠。
blackjack21trader
10-10-11, 11:44
The present world financial system is based on the German Kings during ancient times. Even the bulk of present day US financial system was invented by them through the immigration of Germans during WW2. If you were not their bloodline, there is no way your wealth will grow like their present day descedants. Well, maybe a way to do it is to married into the families of the world bankers. However, this manner is most unlikely because :
1) Our grandfathers were not rich
2) Our ancestor's royal bloodlines (like from Qin Shuh Huang ) are not recognised by this present day world banking system.
But at least there exist a present arbitrage opportunity that maybe you can try to squeeze into this class.
The answer is to be a Lion City landlord.
Good Luck.
神龙股侠。
Remember, since ancient times, whether in the East or in the West, it is always the landlords that get to stay near the Kings. This fact will and never be changed for times eternity to come.
blackjack21trader
10-10-11, 11:46
The agents of the Kings will always be there to discourage the commoners from climbing this ladder.
...............
But at least there exist a present arbitrage opportunity that maybe you can try to squeeze into this class.
The answer is to be a Lion City landlord.
you are using the word arbitrage very very loosely. Where is the price discrepancy?
Regulators
10-10-11, 11:57
Eric schmidt and mark zuckerberg's empire was built in cyberspace whilst donald trump's was built on real estate but compare their individual net worths. There is another property dimension you failed to mention.
Remember, since ancient times, whether in the East or in the West, it is always the landlords that get to stay near the Kings. This fact will and never be changed for times eternity to come.
Condo Kaiser
10-10-11, 13:14
I agree that nowadays more and more billionaires are created thru cyberspace. But the value of those stay up for as long as the technologies/innovations behind it are still relevant.
Cyber billionaires need to constantly upgrade their website/product etc to stay ahead of the game and remain relevant. They can do this by buying up all the new ideas. Billion dollar ideas are worth nothing once another billion dollar idea come along and make the first one irrelevant.
But for someone like Donald Trump, the underlying value of real estate is eternal. It's like owning physical raw material such as gold/diamond/crude. Such commodities are finite in quantity and hard to replace. They remain relevant until such a day there is a permenant shift towards a replacement. (example: For crude, maybe one day solar/wind/tidal/geo thermal energy become so efficient and cheap that we no longer requre crude... Or for Diamond, it will lose its value if one day no one believe in the value of a naturally occuring stone and all decide that a lab enginnered replacement is equally valuable...)
In the case for real estate, owners need to continuously update themselves with the latest happenings in their location and ensure they invest in what is relevant. But generally, physical land ownership in our world (ignore lease hold properties) will retain its value in the long term unless human race starts claiming ownership of land in outerspace.
But no land near natural disaster strike region and too near the sea due to global warming.
I agree that nowadays more and more billionaires are created thru cyberspace. But the value of those stay up for as long as the technologies/innovations behind it are still relevant.
Cyber billionaires need to constantly upgrade their website/product etc to stay ahead of the game and remain relevant. They can do this by buying up all the new ideas. Billion dollar ideas are worth nothing once another billion dollar idea come along and make the first one irrelevant.
But for someone like Donald Trump, the underlying value of real estate is eternal. It's like owning physical raw material such as gold/diamond/crude. Such commodities are finite in quantity and hard to replace. They remain relevant until such a day there is a permenant shift towards a replacement. (example: For crude, maybe one day solar/wind/tidal/geo thermal energy become so efficient and cheap that we no longer requre crude... Or for Diamond, it will lose its value if one day no one believe in the value of a naturally occuring stone and all decide that a lab enginnered replacement is equally valuable...)
In the case for real estate, owners need to continuously update themselves with the latest happenings in their location and ensure they invest in what is relevant. But generally, physical land ownership in our world (ignore lease hold properties) will retain its value in the long term unless human race starts claiming ownership of land in outerspace.
phantom_opera
10-10-11, 14:12
China-A drifting lower in quiet trade in the face of positive Dow futures (+130) ... looks like today going to close around 2,350. It will be interesting to see how market will fare after Shanghai market closes.
http://img1.quotes.ws.126.net/chart/timechart/0000001.png?0.9936517558526248
phantom_opera
10-10-11, 15:29
Hmm ... HSI selling pressure emerges after Shanghai closes down 0.6% below 2,350. Is big fund buying Dow futures in order to sell in HK cash market?
The present world financial system is based on the German Kings during ancient times. Even the bulk of present day US financial system was invented by them through the immigration of Germans during WW2. If you were not their bloodline, there is no way your wealth will grow like their present day descedants. Well, maybe a way to do it is to married into the families of the world bankers. However, this manner is most unlikely because :
1) Our grandfathers were not rich
2) Our ancestor's royal bloodlines (like from Qin Shuh Huang ) are not recognised by this present day world banking system.
But at least there exist a present arbitrage opportunity that maybe you can try to squeeze into this class.
The answer is to be a Lion City landlord.
Good Luck.
神龙股侠。
?????... Germans??? :confused: Where did you get this from?
The Americans adopted its financial system from the English since its founding. In fact the current world financial system is shaped on the English system. The English has always been in the forefront in finance.
Post WW2, the Germans contributed in science and technology in the USA not in finance.
phantom_opera
10-10-11, 21:24
Dow will be testing the long awaited 50dMA tonight .. stay tuned
Dow will be testing the long awaited 50dMA tonight .. stay tunedStaying tuned... :spliff2:
phantom_opera
11-10-11, 07:20
Not enough volume but nonetheless a bullish signal and validated the previous reversal ... buy
blackjack21trader
11-10-11, 08:39
?????... Germans??? :confused: Where did you get this from?
The Americans adopted its financial system from the English since its founding. In fact the current world financial system is shaped on the English system. The English has always been in the forefront in finance.
Post WW2, the Germans contributed in science and technology in the USA not in finance.
Well, very obviously many brothers here have long been blinded by the agents of the kings。 I am too lazy to tell you guys grandfather stories la... so just cut and paste from the google:
LOL
Italian bankers
In the middle of the 13th century, groups of Italian Christians, particularly the Cahorsins and Lombards, invented legal fictions to get around the ban on Christian usury;[12] for example, one method of effecting a loan with interest was to offer money without interest, but also require that the loan is insured against possible loss or injury, and/or delays in repayment (see contractum trinius).[12] The Christians effecting these legal fictions became known as the pope's usurers, and reduced the importance of the Jews to European monarchs;[12] later, in the Middle Ages, a distinction was drawn between things which were consumable (such as food and fuel) and those which were not, with usury being permitted on loans involving the latter.[12]
...........................
The medieval Italian markets were disrupted by wars and were limited by the fractured nature of the Italian states, so the next developments happened as banking practises spread throughout Europe during the renaissance period. Banking offices were usually located near centers of trade, and in the late 17th century, the largest centers for commerce were the ports of Amsterdam, London, and Hamburg.
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[edit]Expansion to Germany and Poland
The next generation of bankers arose from migrant Jewish merchants in the great wheat-growing areas of Germany and Poland. Many of these merchants were from the same families who had been part of the development of the banking process in Italy. They also had links with family members who had, centuries before, fled Spain for both Italy and England. As non-agricultural wealth expanded, many families of goldsmiths (another business not prohibited to Jews) also gradually moved into banking.
Berenberg Bank is the oldest private bank in Germany, established in 1590 by Dutch brothers, Hans and Paul Berenberg in Hamburg [14]
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The London Royal Exchange was established in 1565. At that time moneychangers were already called bankers, though the term "bank" usually referred to their offices, and did not carry the meaning it does today. There was also a hierarchical order among professionals; at the top were the bankers who did business with heads of state, next were the city exchanges, and at the bottom were the pawn shops or "Lombard"'s. Some European cities today have a Lombard street where the pawn shop was located.
[edit]Advances in the 17th and 18th century
By the end of the 16th century and during the 17th, the traditional banking functions of accepting deposits, moneylending, money changing, and transferring funds were combined with the issuance of bank debt that served as a substitute for gold and silver coins.
New banking practices promoted commercial and industrial growth by providing a safe and convenient means of payment and a money supply more responsive to commercial needs, as well as by "discounting" business debt. By the end of the 17th century, banking was also becoming important for the funding requirements of the relatively new and combative european states. This would lead on to government regulations and the first central banks. The success of the new banking techniques and practices in Amsterdam and also the thriving trade city of Antwerp help spread the concepts and ideas to London and helped the developments elsewhere in Europe.
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Now you know why Mercedes and BMW are still the best cars in the World.
HAHAHA
神龙股侠。
blackjack21trader
11-10-11, 08:46
Oh.. BTW,
LOL....
BJ21, you are just being polite.
More politically correct to blame on the Germans rather than the Jews.
The house of rothschild, anyone?
phantom_opera
11-10-11, 09:54
Selling pressure for Chinese property stocks recently but still holding at support level ... am monitoring Wanke @ RMB 7
If China A can rebound strongly from here, this should be bullish for next 3 months.
Condo Kaiser
11-10-11, 11:43
China sov wealth fund supporting the big 4 banks stocks... putting an end to the diarrohea... 3 months is too long a time frame to call... at least for a week we will see support in A shares...
phantom_opera
11-10-11, 14:23
Unfortunately,
http://img1.quotes.ws.126.net/chart/timechart/0000001.png?0.4052471013274044
phantom_opera
11-10-11, 14:33
Wanke, leading property developer:
http://img1.quotes.ws.126.net/chart/timechart/1000002.png
Weekly chart, $7 is key support level:
http://img1.quotes.ws.126.net/chart/kchart/week/1000002.png
Well, very obviously many brothers here have long been blinded by the agents of the kings。 I am too lazy to tell you guys grandfather stories la... so just cut and paste from the google:
LOL
Now you know why Mercedes and BMW are still the best cars in the World.
HAHAHA
神龙股侠。
So bro, what exactly is your point?....
Your cut-n-paste article is saying banks started in Italy developed by Jews in Germany and spread trhoughout Europe including London. What does this have to do with the current financial system? Please connect the link... your argument(whatever that might be) is incoherent. Who/what are agent of kings???:confused: What are you trying to say?
Anyway, I was talking about the financial system as they are now. The Federal Reserve was created only in 1913. The concept of central banking as we see them now is English. Current modern banking is based on the model of Bank of England which was set up in 1694. The only older central bank was Bank of Sweden (1668) but its influence was less than England simply bcoz England a major colonial power and its banking concepts are more pervasive globally.
"blinded by agents of kings" ??? .... what does that mean? bro, your cryptic statements are not making much sense.:doh:. I fear you yourself may be blinded by something (though I don't know what?)
Now you know why Mercedes and BMW are still the best cars in the World.
HAHAHA
神龙股侠。
????????
Mercedes and BMW are engineering achievements.... what is the link???? :confused: ????
phantom_opera
12-10-11, 09:20
Dow futures will be testing the 50dMA support today around 11250 to 11300, no increase of long position until we see a rebound in China-A share. If China-A takes a big dip, better switch to neutral position.
Watch out for property stocks in China, if it crashes 20% from here, definitely there will be a big correction for property sector
Dow futures will be testing the 50dMA support today around 11250 to 11300, no increase of long position until we see a rebound in China-A share. If China-A takes a big dip, better switch to neutral position.
Watch out for property stocks in China, if it crashes 20% from here, definitely there will be a big correction for property sector
Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- About half a day after relaxing home
purchase curbs, Foshan suspended the policy to further assess
its impact, Foshan’s Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural
Development said late last night on website.
• Foshan earlier yesterday became the first Chinese city to
ease curbs by allowing residents to buy a second home priced at
less than 7,500 yuan per square meter
• More than 40 cities including the southern city of Foshan
this year limited number of homes that each family can buy
phantom_opera
12-10-11, 09:33
Bad news for property stocks, Foshan failed to "test" central government in relaxing property buying rules ... no wonder selling pressure continues:
http://img1.quotes.ws.126.net/chart/timechart/0000001.png
ya, HSI felt the same
big housing policy looks like to be announced today in HK
phantom_opera
12-10-11, 10:15
hey hey hey, market reversed in a surprise move .... let's see whether it will close positively ... eagerly waiting for any policy annoucement, better be exciting ;)
blackjack21trader
12-10-11, 16:51
????????
Mercedes and BMW are engineering achievements.... what is the link???? :confused: ????
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4jtguSF0n4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCJZ_qCaCto
blackjack21trader
12-10-11, 16:54
????????
Mercedes and BMW are engineering achievements.... what is the link???? :confused: ????
your howgozit is a old system liao... we are using will-go-in now.
:hell-hath-no-fury:
some panic buying on STI...after Shanghai is up 3%
blackjack21trader
12-10-11, 17:00
some panic buying on STI...after Shanghai is up 3%
wahlaueh... brother land118, now then you tell me arh... after I typed my user name and password into my trading account, market closed liao la...
:scared-4:
:doh:
wahlaueh... brother land118, now then you tell me arh... after I typed my user name and password into my trading account, market closed liao la...
:scared-4:
:doh:Ya, i got sms alert, went to check...left with few minutes..Don't worry Bro, A better 2moro!
blackjack21trader
12-10-11, 17:09
Ya, i got sms alert, went to check...left with few minutes..Don't worry Bro, A better 2moro!
I tease you one la.. brother.. This morning I already bought liao la.
Thanks for your info anyway :)
I tease you one la.. brother.. This morning I already bought liao la.
Thanks for your info anyway :) Morning buy, u already Huat liao...:D
phantom_opera
12-10-11, 18:07
Added long position today with some China-SSE50
Condo Kaiser
12-10-11, 18:46
All of you after market close then say got buy..... i called it yesterday already.....
US stock future clmbs.
Europe at 8pm:
STOXX 50 2,347.59 31.62 1.37%
FTSE 100 5,420.88 25.18 0.47%
DAX 5,942.35 77.34 1.32%
More to offload tomorrow.
phantom_opera
12-10-11, 20:21
my advise is hold, don't sell
How long for? Very tempting to sell to realise profit.
my advise is hold, don't sell
phantom_opera
12-10-11, 21:05
How long for? Very tempting to sell to realise profit.
Dow still has momentum
Dow still has momentum
Stock Futures
Americas
INDEX VALUE CHANGE OPEN HIGH LOW TIME
DJIA INDEX 11,429.00 99.00 11,311.00 11,464.00 11,259.00 08:48
S&P 500 1,199.70 10.10 1,187.00 1,203.60 1,180.80 08:48
NASDAQ 100 2,314.50 26.00 2,284.00 2,317.25 2,275.25 08:49
S&P/TSX 60 683.20 3.40 684.40 685.60 682.50 08:33
Europe
INDEX VALUE CHANGE OPEN HIGH LOW TIME
DJ EURO STOXX 50 2,344.00 42.00 2,298.00 2,347.00 2,283.00 08:44
FTSE 100 5,397.00 40.00 5,349.50 5,413.00 5,322.50 08:44
CAC 40 10 EURO 3,205.50 53.00 3,142.00 3,208.50 3,121.00 08:44
DAX 5,950.00 88.50 5,845.50 5,979.00 5,807.00 08:44
if need to hold, its a good time to buy some protection.
Dec put warrants are very cheap now.... just add to your portfolio...
if need to hold, its a good time to buy some protection.
Dec put warrants are very cheap now.... just add to your portfolio...
what puts are you buying?
Allthepies
12-10-11, 23:12
my advise is hold, don't sell
aiyo read ur post too late, already sold some of my holdings :D
phantom_opera
13-10-11, 08:32
Dow should at least hits 11,900, it will be a challenge to go beyond 12k
am waiting to buy even more SSE50, I believe China-A has hit rock bottom provided Dow can stay above 10k
Euro's plan and realisation of Obama's plan are still uncertain. China is weakening. :confused:
Dow should at least hits 11,900, it will be a challenge to go beyond 12k
phantom_opera
13-10-11, 11:00
Euro's plan and realisation of Obama's plan are still uncertain. China is weakening. :confused:
Don't read the news, read the market instead as market has absorbed all news and more ..... when it goes flat within a range, best time to buy ;)
I am more bullish than ever after yesterday's China-A rebound + Dow's resilience to bad news. Buy on dip is the strategy now.
It shall be good that we form a trading room and make money together
have liquidated half of my holdings accumulated during the selldown last month.....
keep the other half and buying some Dec puts now....
Have been doing that for the last 4 weeks. Prefers volatile market.
Don't read the news, read the market instead as market has absorbed all news and more ..... when it goes flat within a range, best time to buy ;)
I am more bullish than ever after yesterday's China-A rebound + Dow's resilience to bad news. Buy on dip is the strategy now.
phantom_opera
13-10-11, 14:38
I think this is the very last time tax payers can tolerate bailout, already you can see protests in NY and London ... if politicians dare to do huge bailout again, they will probably lose the next election.
phantom_opera
13-10-11, 14:59
China A closed at session high +0.78%, Dow -40
phantom_opera
13-10-11, 15:14
Another bullish sign is US 10y bond yield, above 2.2%, up from a super low of 1.8% during the depth of crisis, obviously the risk of recession has gone down a lot in the last 2 weeks.
Hold, buy on dip :2cents:
Another bullish sign is US 10y bond yield, above 2.2%, up from a super low of 1.8% during the depth of crisis, obviously the risk of recession has gone down a lot in the last 2 weeks.
Hold, buy on dip :2cents: Dow green again last night and Asian markets up again today....more panic buying on STI...
i think the 10yr yield is going down towards 2% again. my opinion is to cash out some of your portfolio now and sit on some puts as an insurance for sharp falls in this roller coaster
phantom_opera
13-10-11, 22:13
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5eTNX&t=3m&q=l&l=on&z=l&a=v&p=m50&lang=en-US®ion=US
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5eGSPC&t=3m&q=l&l=on&z=l&a=v&p=m50&lang=en-US®ion=US
Buy if rebound off the 50dMA support
Time to buy if correction is major tomorrow.
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5eTNX&t=3m&q=l&l=on&z=l&a=v&p=m50&lang=en-US®ion=US
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5eGSPC&t=3m&q=l&l=on&z=l&a=v&p=m50&lang=en-US®ion=US
Buy if rebound off the 50dMA support
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