If STI hit 2500 will you buy stocks or property?

[revhappy]

As above :p

[rattydrama]

non of the above

[radha08]

buy 4d....2500...20big 20small....:D :D :D

[gn108]

Stocks - regardless of STI a few months into the Recession (if any).
I will buy property a year or so later after Retrenchments (if any) have peaked.

[bargain hunter]

won't buy stocks nor ppty at 2500.

1800 i will buy stocks instead of ppty. :)

[Jadey]

won't buy stocks nor ppty at 2500.

1800 i will buy stocks instead of ppty. :)


1800 buy stocks, hit 2500 liquidate and buy property.

[gn108]

I doubt if it'll come down to 1800. Maybe another 10%-15% down on the STI (2200-2400). But might take longer to recover than 2008/9.


1800 buy stocks, hit 2500 liquidate and buy property.

[rattydrama]

1800pts seems the magic word now.

[kane]

Property, but I'd still below 2000, then stocks and property.

[East Lover]

Property, but I'd still below 2000, then stocks and property.
dun think property will drop so soon, even after 2500. wait and watch.

[Jadey]

I doubt if it'll come down to 1800. Maybe another 10%-15% down on the STI (2200-2400). But might take longer to recover than 2008/9.

Banking sector is like shit, and if some major European banks collapse this will create a domino effect on singapore banks.

Next will be Genting. Remember what happen LVS stocks during financial crisis? Then there will be the commodity stocks at play as well.

Just wait lah. this time might be bigger than lehman.

[gn108]

Governments got more bags of money and tricks than companies.
So even if rotten to the core...they will present it differently.
But looks like they will cut Greece off sooner than later ...that limb is dead and rotting.


Banking sector is like shit, and if some major European banks collapse this will create a domino effect on singapore banks.

Next will be Genting. Remember what happen LVS stocks during financial crisis? Then there will be the commodity stocks at play as well.

Just wait lah. this time might be bigger than lehman.

[devilplate]

Gold drop abit

Silver drop alot more to 35... Buy silver instead of waiting for sti 1800?:p

[DC33_2008]

STI will go below 2500 when Greece defaults?

[gn108]

Got chance for 2500 - maybe even before Greece goes.
Uncertainty about Italy - or Spain and the Frenchie banks can drag STI lower.

Since 1997 - we have had major crisises every few years.


STI will go below 2500 when Greece defaults?

[DC33_2008]

Will not buy anything at 2500 when Greece Default. Will wait for Italy and Spain. :hell-hath-no-fury:

[kane]

Will not buy anything at 2500 when Greece Default. Will wait for Italy and Spain. :hell-hath-no-fury:

When Italy and Spain defaults, maybe they will adjust LTV back to 80%. Then everyone will be happy.

[DC33_2008]

DAX is -1.0% now! Will wait for Monday.

[East Lover]

When Italy and Spain defaults, maybe they will adjust LTV back to 80%. Then everyone will be happy.
I wonder how many of u will buy when STI hit new low. Many ppl will miss boat again and again...:rolleyes:

[phantom_opera]

Potential Black Monday if Shanghai A crashes :scared-4:

[DC33_2008]

Monday is likely to be another day of REDs. Dax, FTSE, etc are all reds now.

[Komo]

STI 1800 by end oct:D :D

[westman]

I doubt if it'll come down to 1800. Maybe another 10%-15% down on the STI (2200-2400). But might take longer to recover than 2008/9.


Just barely two months ago, STI was 3300, today just broke 2700 and that was 600!!!:2cents:

[CCR]

Sure buy property if LTv is back to 80%. Can leverage plus no mArgin call....plus rental to support monthly instalment..

[devilplate]

Gold drop abit

Silver drop alot more to 35... Buy silver instead of waiting for sti 1800?:p
Nothing is Spared!!

Gold drop to 1676 now

And silver at 32.75!!!:scared-1:

Tinking of buying silver now....any comments?

[devilplate]

I wonder how many of u will buy when STI hit new low. Many ppl will miss boat again and again...:rolleyes:
Did u miss the previous round?;)

[devilplate]

STI 1800 by end oct:D :D
I will start to accumlate when near 2000pts...;)

If it happen la:hell-hath-no-fury:

Landed drop 30% is gd enuff! Gogogo:D

[devilplate]

Sure buy property if LTv is back to 80%. Can leverage plus no mArgin call....plus rental to support monthly instalment..
Buy stocks first....buy ppty got 3mths to complete the sales....;)

[Pro888]

Will not buy anything at 2500 when Greece Default. Will wait for Italy and Spain. :hell-hath-no-fury:

Yes. That is the main one. Not Greece as many alredi predicted they will default 98% sure. Why not 100%? No diff. Greece only 3% on Europe.

Greece falls then followed by banks and then EU. This will be a much bigger crisis then in 2008/09.

STI will fall below 2000. Bottom fishing? Not so soon:tsk-tsk: . Wait

25% FA
25% TA
25% mind games
25% your own deeds

[minority]

I vaguely remember all the analyst saying STI will hit 3800 at end of 2011.. where are those analyst now? all now are crying doom...

[DC33_2008]

I was advised to buy into European funds 8 months ago in an investment session. Fortunately, I was resistance about it and did not proceed. Believe quite a lot of were caught now.
I vaguely remember all the analyst saying STI will hit 3800 at end of 2011.. where are those analyst now? all now are crying doom...

[radha08]

Monday is likely to be another day of REDs. Dax, FTSE, etc are all reds now.

i see green...:D:D:D

[DC33_2008]

Yes, surprise that is green with all the uncertainty. It has gone too low and rebounded by a bit. It is green but really near the borderline. Let's on Monday. May be another roller coaster ride:scared-3: .
i see green...:D:D:D

[ecimbew]

I am waiting for gold to go below 100 and STI to below 500. Will I wait long? :confused:

[DC33_2008]

Technically that should not happen.
I am waiting for gold to go below 100 and STI to below 500. Will I wait long? :confused:

[ecimbew]

Food prices will not come down for sure.

[radha08]

I vaguely remember all the analyst saying STI will hit 3800 at end of 2011.. where are those analyst now? all now are crying doom...

normally u shld only believe half of what analyst say so they mean sti hit 1900....:D:D:D...bunch of idiots analysts...:hell-hath-no-fury:

[focus]

I was advised to buy into European funds 8 months ago in an investment session. Fortunately, I was resistance about it and did not proceed. Believe quite a lot of were caught now.

Ya.. i rarely go to those investment seminars. It is of no value at all.

[DC33_2008]

Why not with invitation to nice lunches in 5/6-star hotels. Good to associate with positive people. :)
Ya.. i rarely go to those investment seminars. It is of no value at all.

[devilplate]

Why not with invitation to nice lunches in 5/6-star hotels. Good to associate with positive people. :)
But wat if u cant resist their sweet talk and ended buying their products:hell-hath-no-fury:

I went few times and they r quite pushy:tsk-tsk: :doh:

No more for me:p

[DC33_2008]

Got to be disciplined and focus. :spliff: Exchange ideas from the other guests too.
But wat if u cant resist their sweet talk and ended buying their products:hell-hath-no-fury:

I went few times and they r quite pushy:tsk-tsk: :doh:

No more for me:p

[toiletsiao]

next week is the last week of Q3 2011...... there is a good possiblity we will see some kind of window dressing .....

STI rallied about 160pts in less than a week from 2719 on 24th August with a climax of 93pts(2885 high) on a single day on 31st August.. can consider a to hit and run some badly beaten down stocks nxt week...

i emphasis only INDEX shares.... most shares closed above opening prices..its a positive rate of change... sg flagships companies like SIA DBS UOB OCBC Keppel closed at or near day highs with a positive rate of change.....

Money from gold sell off last friday is going to flow to some place..... US 10yr treasuries at yielding 1.6% is crazy lah..equities looks a good bet next week...

[DC33_2008]

Waiting too! :spliff:
next week is the last week of Q3 2011...... there is a good possiblity we will see some kind of window dressing .....

STI rallied about 160pts in less than a week from 2719 on 24th August with a climax of 93pts(2885 high) on a single day on 31st August.. can consider a to hit and run some badly beaten down stocks nxt week...

i emphasis only INDEX shares.... most shares closed above opening prices..its a positive rate of change... sg flagships companies like SIA DBS UOB OCBC Keppel closed at or near day highs with a positive rate of change.....

Money from gold sell off last friday is going to flow to some place..... US 10yr treasuries at yielding 1.6% is crazy lah..equities looks a good bet next week...

[toiletsiao]

Waiting too! :spliff:

assuming nothing out of this world come out off course

[DC33_2008]

There are always surprises which makes it more exciting. ;)
assuming nothing out of this world come out off course

[devilplate]

Can fry silver anot?

[DC33_2008]

Can fry silver anot?
Prefer gold thank silver medals. Look at what chinese & india rui after.

[toiletsiao]

Can fry silver anot?

you can fry anything u want... the question is price nia... although silver drop alot from its high... its still almost 100% higher than where it was as recently as 3Q 2010 ... i got a feeling it will not reach its previous highs liao becoz the big boys cant leverage much on silver liao due to the increased margin requirements... let water find its own level bah in silver

how u want to invest silver? buy the SLV ETF ? purchase silver coins or open a UOB silver account??

[devilplate]

you can fry anything u want... the question is price nia... although silver drop alot from its high... its still almost 100% higher than where it was as recently as 3Q 2010 ... i got a feeling it will not reach its previous highs liao becoz the big boys cant leverage much on silver liao due to the increased margin requirements... let water find its own level bah in silver

how u want to invest silver? buy the SLV ETF ? purchase silver coins or open a UOB silver account??
Futures lah...fry fry hit n run

[devilplate]

Prefer gold thank silver medals. Look at what chinese & india rui after.
Gold cant fry fry mah...more for buy to hold and stand pretty:D

Gold is no safe haven....in 08-09, also drop from 1k to 7xx

[DC33_2008]

Gold cant fry fry mah...more for buy to hold and stand pretty:D

Gold is no safe haven....in 08-09, also drop from 1k to 7xx
Imagine top 2 most populated countries in the world love gold.

[radha08]

next week is the last week of Q3 2011...... there is a good possiblity we will see some kind of window dressing .....

STI rallied about 160pts in less than a week from 2719 on 24th August with a climax of 93pts(2885 high) on a single day on 31st August.. can consider a to hit and run some badly beaten down stocks nxt week...

i emphasis only INDEX shares.... most shares closed above opening prices..its a positive rate of change... sg flagships companies like SIA DBS UOB OCBC Keppel closed at or near day highs with a positive rate of change.....

Money from gold sell off last friday is going to flow to some place..... US 10yr treasuries at yielding 1.6% is crazy lah..equities looks a good bet next week...

thanks for the reminder yes i remember end august the bulls were flying....:cool:

[toiletsiao]

thanks for the reminder yes i remember end august the bulls were flying....:cool:

this coming week should be even bigger because its QUATERLY END ... end of 3Q 2011 ...

Off course assuming nothing out of this world comes out on the negative side lah... if quiet quiet no new developments..... the odds are good on the long side... hit and run!!!!!

[hyenergix]

If STI really crashes to 2500, I would rather stay in cash position or buy gold, simply because the rental supply is too huge from 2012 onwards and a significant portion of recent buyers are investors and upgraders, who have a HDB to rent out later. I'm focusing on paying down my loan becauses the interest rate won't stay low for long. Stocks are out for me.

[Laguna]

If STI really crashes to 2500, I would rather stay in cash position or buy gold, simply because the rental supply is too huge from 2012 onwards and a significant portion of recent buyers are investors and upgraders, who have a HDB to rent out later. I'm focusing on paying down my loan becauses the interest rate won't stay low for long. Stocks are out for me.

With the Operation Twist by US, I believe the interest will stay low for a while

[devilplate]

at least till end 2012:2cents: :D:cheers6:

better just crash jialat jialat rather den whip saw:sleep:

dow drop to 8000 bestest:D

sti drop to 2k!!!!:D

[DC33_2008]

Now:scared-3: :

TickerVolumePricePrice DeltaNikkei (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=NKY:IND)8,419.36-140.90-1.65%TOPIX (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=TPX:IND)731.01-13.53-1.82%Hang Seng (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=HSI:IND)17,396.50-272.29-1.54%

[hyenergix]

STI Reading - 2656.91
http://btstocks.asiaone.com/indices/index_STI.html

STI 2500 is a real possibility in the next few months.

In the absence of stimulus, next year will be a tough year. Good to save up rather than spend on properties or luxury items.

[DC33_2008]

Asia (26 Sept- 1215pm)
Nikkei 8,401.42-158.84 (-1.86%) TOPIX (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=TPX:IND)729.67-14.87 (-2.00%) Hang Seng (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=HSI:IND) 17,359.30-309.52 (-1.75%)

[phantom_opera]

China index still holding, not yet in 3rd phase.

[DC33_2008]

Duplicate.

[DC33_2008]

1-HOUR LATER:

Nikkei (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=NKY:IND)8,396.02-164.24-1.92%
TOPIX (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=TPX:IND)731.02-13.52-1.82%
Hang Seng (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=HSI:IND)17,352.00-316.83-1.79%

[phantom_opera]

ok, the market is going impatient with "wayang" already, high chance it is a sell-off tonight if no concrete action is done

Dow futures -40

Shanghai-A

http://img1.quotes.ws.126.net/chart/timechart/0000001.png

[devilplate]

Great!:cheers6:

Crash jialat jialat pls!:D :hell-hath-no-fury:

[phantom_opera]

Dow futures -48
Silver -14%
Shanghai A -1.57%, just below 2,400

Those who has derivative in Silver is gone case today

[toiletsiao]

capitalcommercial trust looks good..... the price is good

[DC33_2008]

At 3.20pm :
Nikkei (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=NKY:IND) 8,374.13-186.13 -2.17% TOPIX (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=TPX:IND)728.85-15.69 -2.11% Hang Seng (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=HSI:IND) 17,133.30-535.52 -3.03%

[azeoprop]

All the gains for the past 2 years have been totally wiped out. :tsk-tsk:

So new launch price will be the same as oct 09? :D

[phantom_opera]

Strong support will come for STI at 2,400-2,450
and for property stocks around 500 at the following:

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=FSTAS8600.SI&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=m200&a=&c=

[gn108]

Property usually slower and responds to other factors like retrenchements and cost of replacement aka land cost and construction cost. So launch prices won't go down yet.

Property cycles are usually longer though - so maybe it'll Oct 2014 before you get Oct 09 prices.


All the gains for the past 2 years have been totally wiped out. :tsk-tsk:

So new launch price will be the same as oct 09? :D

[devilplate]

Property usually slower and responds to other factors like retrenchements and cost of replacement aka land cost and construction cost. So launch prices won't go down yet.

Property cycles are usually longer though - so maybe it'll Oct 2014 before you get Oct 09 prices.
U tink ppty can drop back to oct 09 prices!:scared-1: 8wood launch during tat time...whaha

How about 05-06 prices? Any chance?

[bargain hunter]

05-06 impossible rite? at the worst of the worst would be 09 prices?

05-06 only if its really great depression 2 lor. hahahahaha


U tink ppty can drop back to oct 09 prices!:scared-1: 8wood launch during tat time...whaha

How about 05-06 prices? Any chance?

[amk]

How about 05-06 prices? Any chance?

That will be a close to 40% crash of OCR prices, 30% crash of CCR prices.

Dun think it will happen. Current fiscal policy almost guarantee such thing will not happen at least on nominal numbers.

Europe is not all dead. French banks just jumped 8%. It's still sentimental driven now. Every one is hoarding cash and is doing wait and see.

[bargain hunter]

now still up 8% the french banks? significant changes even as we type! hahaha


That will be a close to 40% crash of OCR prices, 30% crash of CCR prices.

Dun think it will happen. Current fiscal policy almost guarantee such thing will not happen at least on nominal numbers.

Europe is not all dead. French banks just jumped 8%. It's still sentimental driven now. Every one is hoarding cash and is doing wait and see.

[DC33_2008]

STI should open slightly higher today. :)
now still up 8% the french banks? significant changes even as we type! hahaha

[amk]

now still up 8% the french banks? significant changes even as we type! hahaha

as of now another 8% surge.

what a market.

Euro "TARP" program looks like inevitable.

The brave ones yesterday are rewarded ;)

This looks more and more like casino.

[devilplate]

as of now another 8% surge.

what a market.

Euro "TARP" program looks like inevitable.

The brave ones yesterday are rewarded ;)

This looks more and more like casino.
Yes u r right....now the market is exactly like betting big small BUT got trading fees! S who wins? House wins lor....in this case? Trading firms lor:D

But i rather bet on banker player without house comm...whaha but got b6 half payment:ashamed1:

[phantom_opera]

Market is now betting Greece will be rescued from default one more time using this TARP, but how long can this last? Greece will take even further austerity measures, unemployment rate/economy will descend further into recession, how they can repay like that? A bond yield exceeding 7% is simply not sustainable.

A default is sooner or later, the question is when.

when I was a student, I have been to England, Ireland, Greece, Italy, Turkey, only Turkish are more hardworking, the other countries are just too laid back (or shall i say enjoy life) .... there is no free lunch in this world, what is owed by your parents / grandparents will hit you.

On the other hand, Singapore lifestyle is another extreme :doh:

[I_RIDE_DEEP]

Dow futures -48
Silver -14%
Shanghai A -1.57%, just below 2,400

Those who has derivative in Silver is gone case today

Hi Bro. Why is silver price movement not in parallel with gold?

Sorry, I am quite noob on commodities.

[samsara]

Today, they are creating money out of nothing. Moral hazard has been cast to the wind. The only caveat while the well-heeled ones turn on the money printing press is that the general populace do not revolt. How did the U.S. banks repay the TARP monies? Citigroup, BoA, Wells Fargo, they even helped the U.S. Treasury make some money from the TARP lending.

The financial world that we see today is but a big illusion. Layer upon layer, that illusion was created. Today, the layers are so thick with derivatives and other magical instruments that the man-in-the-street no longer understands the fundamentals that once gave rise to the money markets.

Through ignorance, the masses are controlled. Feed a little, tighten a little, take a little, loosen a little. Almost like Sim City but better. As long as the masses do not revolt and bring about anarchy, the masters can make merry. This is happening all over the world.

Prudence and belt-tightening have become passe. High-risk, high-yield investing is in vogue. The risk-takers are rewarded and protected, the savers pay the penalty for being cautious and careful. Logic has been turned on its head and while it is worrying now, we will in time think that its feet are its new head - the new norm.

Terrifying? Indeed. The end of civilisation is heralded by the advent of vices and debauchery. Ironically, the catastrophe that brings that about will be made by our hands and not by the forces of nature.


Market is now betting Greece will be rescued from default one more time using this TARP, but how long can this last? Greece will take even further austerity measures, unemployment rate/economy will descend further into recession, how they can repay like that? A bond yield exceeding 7% is simply not sustainable.

A default is sooner or later, the question is when.

when I was a student, I have been to England, Ireland, Greece, Italy, Turkey, only Turkish are more hardworking, the other countries are just too laid back (or shall i say enjoy life) .... there is no free lunch in this world, what is owed by your parents / grandparents will hit you.

On the other hand, Singapore lifestyle is another extreme :doh:

[DC33_2008]

Got to read the pendulum movement. There is still a sequence. Volatile market is the time to make $. Just hope the string is not entangled.
Yes u r right....now the market is exactly like betting big small BUT got trading fees! S who wins? House wins lor....in this case? Trading firms lor:D

But i rather bet on banker player without house comm...whaha but got b6 half payment:ashamed1:

[radha08]

2500....coming

[Latio]

wait for less than STI below 2000.
all buy :spliff:

[tick]

sh*t. just chop off my tumour in Kep land. Drop 30-40% and still looking to plunge....:mad: :mad:

[azeoprop]

So now is 2531 points, who are buying properties and stocks tomorrow?

:rolleyes:

[bargain hunter]

just repeating my earlier post #5. i am going to buy neither. :ashamed1:



won't buy stocks nor ppty at 2500.

1800 i will buy stocks instead of ppty. :)

[bargain hunter]

wow, u have not posted since sep 09? u bought kepland, let it drop 30-40% and now then chop? why?


sh*t. just chop off my tumour in Kep land. Drop 30-40% and still looking to plunge....:mad: :mad:

[Komo]

Now the question should be if sti hit 1750, will you buy stock or property:D :D

[amk]

I will buy stocks.
Not really any level though. Counter specific.

[jwong71]

definitely onto stocks, no worries over property mortgages,rental or loss of job.
good to sit tight and slp well through the recession period.

properties lagging behind, and their price will be lodged only after few months.
still in time to buy, if market show signs of picking up.

[3C]

definitely onto stocks, no worries over property mortgages,rental or loss of job.
good to sit tight and slp well through the recession period.

properties lagging behind, and their price will be lodged only after few months.
still in time to buy, if market show signs of picking up.

The main worry this time round is that it is not going to be cyclical recession.
Those who buy in must first go for medical check-up to ensure that they dont have a weak heart. Situation seems like it is not going to be a raining day but a prolong thunderstorm:D

[bargain hunter]

as per my previous post, i will buy stocks at 1750. ppty prob hasn't fallen much by then. and pple say singaporeans all millionaires, all rich, interest rates below 1%, all can hold or rentals can cover monthly payment etc rite? where got fire sale?


Now the question should be if sti hit 1750, will you buy stock or property:D :D

[devilplate]

Step by step la....fall to 2400pts first:D

[yaozong7]

Step by step la....fall to 2400pts first:D

But what stocks to buy ar? Am thinking Noble, Kepland, Capland. The 3 local banks still too ex for my liking. Haha.

[radha08]

so what do u all think of dow jones movement last nite last minute screw tarek...:scared-1:

[radha08]

so what do u all think of dow jones movement last nite last minute screw tarek...:scared-1:

[phantom_opera]

so what do u all think of dow jones movement last nite last minute screw tarek...:scared-1:

Best time to add to short position, dead cat bounce

[Laguna]

so what do u all think of dow jones movement last nite last minute screw tarek...:scared-1:

ya, last hour was shocking movement.
anyway...NATO....

[Komo]

One notch up three notch down:D :D

[kane]

ya, last hour was shocking movement.
anyway...NATO....

who wants a high blood pressure just go and speculate in this market.

[phantom_opera]

If HSI can close above 17k today or next few days, market has hit a bottom, at least in October ... lots of short positions were stopped out in last 2 days ....fundamentally guess Europe leaders will come out with something less damaging to the banking sector (read: bailout) again using taxpayer money :tsk-tsk:

[devilplate]

If HSI can close above 17k today or next few days, market has hit a bottom, at least in October ... lots of short positions were stopped out in last 2 days ....fundamentally guess Europe leaders will come out with something less damaging to the banking sector (read: bailout) again using taxpayer money :tsk-tsk:

similar to QE....

its actually spending future generation's money:doh:

like credit cards....spend first worry later:hell-hath-no-fury:

[hyenergix]

similar to QE....

its actually spending future generation's money:doh:

like credit cards....spend first worry later:hell-hath-no-fury:

QE is more like forcing other countries who purchased your bonds and currency to work harder for you, which is what's happening now in Asia via inflation.

[devilplate]

QE is more like forcing other countries who purchased your bonds and currency to work harder for you, which is what's happening now in Asia via inflation.

ya true true:hell-hath-no-fury:

and only big bro can print $$ :hell-hath-no-fury:

[SpinCity]

ya true true:hell-hath-no-fury:

and only big bro can print $$ :hell-hath-no-fury:

You can always print your own money
The key is, don't borrow in the currencies that you can't print

[radha08]

who wants a high blood pressure just go and speculate in this market.

blood pressure nevermind u will be poorer...:scared-3:

[amk]

If HSI can close above 17k today

HSI 17052 now.
look at the chart it's really really like buy big/small every day. :D

[phantom_opera]

That means bailouts again in Europe, now the market is speculating how "big" the bailouts will be .... with the strong rebound, I would think it is quite big.

[phantom_opera]

As I said last time, things that you expect isn't dangerous, things that you never expect is life-threatening:

Quote from ft:

The net value of outstanding credit default swaps on Chinese sovereign debt has soared to $8.3bn, according to data released this week by The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation.

The market for China CDS is now the world’s 10th largest, bigger than those for Portugal and Bank of America. Two years ago there was a net $1.6bn of outstanding China CDS, making it only the world’s 227th largest at the time.

=> It may be rosy on the surface, rotten inside just like the milk powder

[amk]

hmm not that I agree/disagree with what you said, but I thought the size of CDS just means there are more players betting on China's credit. it just means it gets active, doesn't mean it's getting worse (or better).

[phantom_opera]

hmm not that I agree/disagree with what you said, but I thought the size of CDS just means there are more players betting on China's credit. it just means it gets active, doesn't mean it's getting worse (or better).

True, it depends on the premium of CDS actually. Somehow FT made it a show-case. But I really don't know how the insurance company calculates the risk.

[amk]

Credit market is a little complicated than that ;)

I buy a CDS on a name usually because I have an exposure on it. Many firms dun really have an exposure on China sovereign, but on Chinese state controlled companies, so they seek CDS protection on sovereign as a proxy. CDS market is like shares. There is a demand then there is a price. Of course the underlying's credit worthiness formed the base of valuation, but many times speculative traders can push up or down a credit spread easily. China itself has very few external debts. China does not depend on issuing bonds to raise funding, unlike most western countries. China's debt is mostly domestic. Once a while china did issue an external USD bond, not because it needs it, but because it needs to have something for the outside world to benchmark with. In the past there were very few CDSs on china, mostly because Chinese firms dun usually venture outside. Now it's different. Chinese mega firms are everywhere, and they are doing business on western terms. Therefore the size of CDS on china increased gradually.

And btw CDS can be sold by anyone, in fact mostly by banks.

[amk]

And the valuation, or price of CDS, sometimes is almost entirely determined by speculative traders, rather than "real" credit worthiness so to speak. Especially now, CDS on some countries or corporates are at a ridiculous level all because of speculation.

[DC33_2008]

STI will not hit 2500 for tomorrow. It should go up further tomorrow.

[azeoprop]

So now is 2531 points, who are buying properties and stocks tomorrow?

:rolleyes:

Missed the boat? :beats-me-man:

[phantom_opera]

Just like I have guessed, ECB / BOE back to inflationary policy ... i wonder how many times they can do this :doh: It will be interesting to see whether China will soften its anti-inflationary stance as well.

Thanks to AMK for explaining CDS especially about this proxy concept, something new to me.

[hyenergix]

Recapitalizing the EU banks is good news for properties and bad news for inflation here.

[Allthepies]

this stock market has become very exciting.has turn on trading mode, buy on dips and sell on rebounds, no long term position:) no need to see whether sti at wat level.

[radha08]

Missed the boat? :beats-me-man:

u not alone...:banghead::banghead::banghead:

[DC33_2008]

Another day of northward movement for STI today looking at Nikkei and Topix:

Nikkei (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=NKY:IND) 8,631.39109.37 1.28% TOPIX (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=TPX:IND)745.939.07 1.23%

Waiting to sell.:)

[Alan Shearer]

Me too but not before 2015 :sleep:

[phantom_opera]

Selling could resume tonight after the better-than-expected job data pushing the futures up... :sleep:

[Komo]

next week rally will continue!
now stock is more interesting!:D

[DC33_2008]

STI movement will depend on the meeting between German Chancellor and French President today.
next week rally will continue!
now stock is more interesting!:D

[land118]

STI movement will depend on the meeting between German Chancellor and French President today.Crunch weekend...

[phantom_opera]

STI movement will depend on the meeting between German Chancellor and French President today.

Also China-A, whether can hold the 2,350 support.