View Full Version : Belysa fully sold at end June, two more exec condos begin preview today
http://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/exclusive/belysa-fully-sold-end-june-two-more-exec-condos-begin-preview-today
With more ECs in the pipeline, psf will rise to $750psf by end of year 2012.
ECs will support the overall private condo prices.
Ec will have its run-up to about 750 psf - 800 psf. Every launch from now on just modest + 10.
Below are only estimates
< 500 psf : HDB
500-700 psf : DBSS
670-800+ psf : EC and wait for sim lian good show next year
> 800 psf : PC
Neutral analysis on BTO or Ec
Lets talk about Bukit Panjang BTO and Blossom Residence at 700 psf
Lets assume the feel good factor you may buy a BTO 4 room HDB at 260k some time ago at 1100 square feet at 236 psf at bukit panjang thinking that hey I am able to sell 400k+ at 400 psf 8 years later depending on market condition. Wah whopping >160k profit. But the opportunity cost is you will be drastically priced out from PC even should a crash occurs. The next low will be higher.
Bad#1: If upon MOP, all mass market condos are able to sustain 1000 psf due to 4 tier housing, you can be certain a lot of people will be priced out and may miss the next cycle.
Bad#2: Crash happens and you wait to enter mass market PC at 700-800 psf. What makes you think it will be 500 psf and all HDB upgraders top up 100 psf to live in PC. It may be mentally straining to top up huge amount of money with uncertainty in interest rate. The pyramid system will always hold.
Lets assume you buy Blossom Residence at 700 psf 1100 square feet at 770k thinking hey hey when I MOP in good market condition, I am able to sell for 800 psf in 8 years time (near privatisation) in good market condition at a profit of 110k.
Bad: You need to incur maintainence and lots of misc fees while benefiting from lower initial interest rates. Market crash it to 580 psf. Paper loss 100+k
Good: Market crash it to 580 psf while most PC 700-800 psf, you cannot sell your EC realistically. When housing rebound, a topping up of 200 or more psf will allow you to transit comfortably, without having the mentality of incurring a huge debt with high interest rate like the BTO case.
Think of it as Singapore housing is designed as pyramid when a huge affordability of private housing must equate to an even larger amount of people priced out in the future. The danger of huge supply of BTO public housing also means your BTO overall price appreciation potential go down. With MOP, it is even obvious.
It is simple: Upon slump buy gem. Upon boom, live with the reasonable sandwich. Anyways so many people don't mind to be stranded in seastrand. When the sandwich is unreasonable, it means it is waiting for something bad to happen.
kingkong1984
02-07-11, 09:26
Since EC supplies are there and more of it, better to sell if u target the same group of people to buy ur mass market condo. No one interested to be suckers, only tenants will.
Maybe DBTT like centrale will sell even better when target same group of people who wan mass market condo.
linchong84
02-07-11, 09:43
Ec will have its run-up to about 750 psf - 800 psf. Every launch from now on just modest + 10.
Below are only estimates
< 500 psf : HDB
500-700 psf : DBSS
670-800+ psf : EC and wait for sim lian good show next year
> 800 psf : PC
Neutral analysis on BTO or Ec
Lets talk about Bukit Panjang BTO and Blossom Residence at 700 psf
Lets assume the feel good factor you may buy a BTO 4 room HDB at 260k some time ago at 1100 square feet at 236 psf at bukit panjang thinking that hey I am able to sell 400k+ at 400 psf 8 years later depending on market condition. Wah whopping >160k profit. But the opportunity cost is you will be drastically priced out from PC even should a crash occurs. The next low will be higher.
Bad#1: If upon MOP, all mass market condos are able to sustain 1000 psf due to 4 tier housing, you can be certain a lot of people will be priced out and may miss the next cycle.
Bad#2: Crash happens and you wait to enter mass market PC at 700-800 psf. What makes you think it will be 500 psf and all HDB upgraders top up 100 psf to live in PC. It may be mentally straining to top up huge amount of money with uncertainty in interest rate. The pyramid system will always hold.
Lets assume you buy Blossom Residence at 700 psf 1100 square feet at 770k thinking hey hey when I MOP in good market condition, I am able to sell for 800 psf in 8 years time (near privatisation) in good market condition at a profit of 110k.
Bad: You need to incur maintainence and lots of misc fees while benefiting from lower initial interest rates. Market crash it to 580 psf. Paper loss 100+k
Good: Market crash it to 580 psf while most PC 700-800 psf, you cannot sell your EC realistically. When housing rebound, a topping up of 200 or more psf will allow you to transit comfortably, without having the mentality of incurring a huge debt with high interest rate like the BTO case.
Think of it as Singapore housing is designed as pyramid when a huge affordability of private housing must equate to an even larger amount of people priced out in the future. The danger of huge supply of BTO public housing also means your BTO overall price appreciation potential go down. With MOP, it is even obvious.
It is simple: Upon slump buy gem. Upon boom, live with the reasonable sandwich. Anyways so many people don't mind to be stranded in seastrand. When the sandwich is unreasonable, it means it is waiting for something bad to happen.
You think too much already.. You are putting a property investor's mindset into a normal HDB/EC house dweller.. They buy BTO or EC primarily to stay nia.. Esp for someone who bought bukit panjang BTO, mostly likely they are earning 5k income? You think they are that interested in hopping or missing the pte boat etc?? They are thinking of how to feed their kids, how to hold on to their jobs..
For those who might buy blossom, likewise they just want to stay there for some family reasons or what.. If it's really investment focused, they would have bought esparina.. for them to take up a bank loan and pay maintenance charges, they should have already done calculations and decided to pay to enjoy condo facilities.. so why will those be a concern..
in a good market, they might eventually realise their BTO or EC profits to upgrade to better location and take up more debt.. In a bad market, they will just concentrate on holding onto their jobs and avoiding retrenchment, while staying at their present house to live happily ever after..
lol no doubt people buy for stay. But I would say bto is a very bad buy now.
People do change when they work more years. When they are 20+, they think of living happily ever after, 30+ they think of more, 40+ they think even more. Not trying to argue but providing a side perspective of being priced out in the long term LOL
kingkong1984
02-07-11, 10:06
Good buy or bad buy, price plus location.
All relative lah.
Some place more importance to be near parents and throw investment lens out of the window. They wear only fashionable lens and are willing to pay more.
devilplate
02-07-11, 10:06
lol no doubt people buy for stay. But I would say bto is a very bad buy now.
Bto bad?!?:scared-1:
Its the best of the best sure win lottery for all mid to low income singaporeans!
Its the best stepping stone for newly wed:D (super low entry barrier for all....those eligible for AHG may not even nid to fork out anything for the first 5% DP)
8yrs time to build up cash reserves is a reasonable amt of time anyway....married at 30yo n get a bto, by 38yo, can tink of invest another condo or upgrade.....instead of stretching ur nose to pay housing loan with not much spare cash left every mth if they were to hoot a EC.
linchong84
02-07-11, 10:14
lol no doubt people buy for stay. But I would say bto is a very bad buy now.
How can it be a bad buy?? Then what are all the young couples going to buy to settle down start a family? BTOs are the cheapest.. Resales, DBSS, ECs, Pte all all so much more expensive.. There's no other alternatives already.. Cant possibly rent cos that will be the worse choice.. Or last resort, move to JB, Batam, also cant be right?
BTO is definitely a good buy because it is the cheapest now.. Housing is a need, not a want.. So, one cannot do without it one..
"8yrs time to build up cash reserves is a reasonable amt of time anyway....married at 30yo n get a bto, by 38yo, can tink of invest another condo or upgrade.....instead of stretching ur nose to pay housing loan with not much spare cash left every mth if they were to hoot a EC."
That is what the government tell you. If it is so guaranteed in the future, everybody huat to the sky. By 38 years old, how certain are you you can invest another condo or upgrade. If you can good for you, you happen to be lucky because the situation adapts to you. Even you can transit, once again it is situational, not within your control. You just happen to be in a country that pays you well and huat.
Not much spare cash? Newspaper tell you grads are able to find job at 3k avg starting pay. If I 2.6k also have to eat the humble pie and say I not good enough. 1+1 6k buy EC with no sweat. If everyone says they wan to invest another condo, it is just greed. If it is so simple like what you say 30 years old get married 38yo can tink of invest in another condo. You will not see the sky high cov, sky high price, sky high demand and property developer playing your lives.
Good buy for the present, as good as renting.
Bad buy in terms of staying rest of your life and not do anything.
devilplate
02-07-11, 11:17
"8yrs time to build up cash reserves is a reasonable amt of time anyway....married at 30yo n get a bto, by 38yo, can tink of invest another condo or upgrade.....instead of stretching ur nose to pay housing loan with not much spare cash left every mth if they were to hoot a EC."
That is what the government tell you. If it is so guaranteed in the future, everybody huat to the sky. By 38 years old, how certain are you you can invest another condo or upgrade. If you can good for you, you happen to be lucky because the situation adapts to you. Even you can transit, once again it is situational, not within your control. You just happen to be in a country that pays you well and huat.
Not much spare cash? Newspaper tell you grads are able to find job at 3k avg starting pay. If I 2.6k also have to eat the humble pie and say I not good enough. 1+1 6k buy EC with no sweat. If everyone says they wan to invest another condo, it is just greed. If it is so simple like what you say 30 years old get married 38yo can tink of invest in another condo. You will not see the sky high cov, sky high price, sky high demand and property developer playing your lives.
Was the problem wif u?:beats-me-man:
Wat other better choice do newly weds have now? 8yrs later cant save enuff for condo can at least save some spare cash for rainy days, for children fund etc....better den overstretching to get resale flat, ec or worse condo...
So wat u suggest 1st timer to buy now other den bto?
devilplate
02-07-11, 11:25
Anyway, all sorts of extreme thinking la....some willing to take 90%loan on a 200k car:doh:
Some super scared to invest anything other den keeping in FD.....
Angmor dun save money one lor....can depend on govt to support them if out of job mah rite? Govt bankrupt den riot lor like greece....:scared-5:
Today mentioned abt jap man eating bento for lunch and taking $555 a mth allowance from their wives....1st world country n 3rd largest economy wor....:hell-hath-no-fury:
I believe in the importance of freehold land. I do not think people even have problem choosing BTO and EC. So personally, I already stopped believing younger Singaporeans are mostly poor with 1-off cases. In general you see the number of luxury cars on the road, you know. Some people earn very high income and willing to spend 10% of income on housing. Some income lower and maybe 40% on housing. I apologize if my reasoning does not cater to you. Personally I also do not factor HDB BTO as sure win lottery. Maybe 70-80% extent. I also seen people sitting on a pile of cash and keep it to death.
Whether you can think bto or whichever instrument can lead you to what you believe, it is perception and it is pointless to argue. If you are 1st timer, you choose what you want to see or what the government tells you. Like I say ten to twenty years is a long time. If you are 20+, you probably want to start a family, work till a period and see what choices you have. If you are 30+, you would want to upgrade.
If you are welloff, you would probably straight away buy PC and end it all. I am very surprised a lot of 20+ already are like that. Based on what you experience in showrooms. I am sure a lot will not disagree with me.
kingkong1984
02-07-11, 12:06
Bto bad?!?:scared-1:
Its the best of the best sure win lottery for all mid to low income singaporeans!
Its the best stepping stone for newly wed:D (super low entry barrier for all....those eligible for AHG may not even nid to fork out anything for the first 5% DP)
8yrs time to build up cash reserves is a reasonable amt of time anyway....married at 30yo n get a bto, by 38yo, can tink of invest another condo or upgrade.....instead of stretching ur nose to pay housing loan with not much spare cash left every mth if they were to hoot a EC.
Good comments. They might even escape the 40 percent LTV. Ask him which BTO has suffered loses so far. Perhaps that would be more convincing.
No deny BTO is sure win factor. But consider the opportunity cost factor.
kingkong1984
02-07-11, 12:24
No deny BTO is sure win factor. But consider the opportunity cost factor.
Haha... U win Liao... Like that we all know, grab GCB, sell 10 yrs later. No need to work for rest of our life. Freehold ones.
Must be realistic, see ur bullet calibre.
BTO not bad buy lar...it is the stepping stone. i share same sentiment as devilplate. Buy bto save ammo 8yrs juz nice upgrade condo. the bottomline is ROI tat is if u believe EC is launched when ppi is peakish. But u made a gd point abt opportunity cost, i.e next low will be higher, question is how low? Everything is based on arbitrary figures. To make ur next upgrade from BTO to PC a worthy investment, you need another recession for sure (if you talking about a 8yrs timeframe after MOP). if not you are right that you are better off buying EC at the start if drop is not steep, again it is about your location (i.e beside surrounding condos and you are buying at a significant discount).
Let's put it this way, I would rather see my property not having suffering paper lose of 100K+ for my EC should it ever crash as compared to BTO.
I think the logic is flawed when you say bto supply many now, appreciation will go down, if you look at the ppi for public pricing they are the most resilient even in recession and for homestay, most people will not sell. The term "affordability" which is the trend you are seeing now is due to the fact that interest rates are uber low and economy is rosy, of course we must not forget about the "what ifs", if one is overly optimistic about future then it is otherwise.
Actually if u put in the logic that most grads dual income can easily hoot EC, it really depends. If both heavy spendings then suck thumb. I believe yjcai is a grad working for a couple of yrs and has probably bought an EC that's why he can say the same for similar young working couples can easily buy EC or smaller condos.
Ultimately if you buy for homestay, it is for lifestyle/location(parents) so there is never a right or wrong for this. Investment return should not even be put in the equation in the first place. Think of it as you can enjoy condo lifestyle for 5yrs compared to staying in BTO for 5 yrs. I think Belysa full sellout has its valid reasons: good "affordability" as compared to nearby condos, low interest rates as compared to HDB fix rate, no need to wait 8 times to get ur choice unit
To buy private, ec or bto at the start depends on several factors:
1) some get married immediately when they just started to work, then bto is the only option.
2) those who get married late and had accumulate enough wealth to go into private. But provided the price is reasonable and affordable. (reasonable and affordable is rather subjective per say).
3) agree bto is the stepping stone and is a sure win, but will not win much. Private property investment (if bought at right time and right price) can bring your wealth to next level.
If you asked me the same qns in 2003 to 2005, i would have agreed with yjcai.
But judging at current situation, it will be wiser to buy bto. When 4 years ssd and more CM Kicks in, i sian 1/2 already. Never visited any condo showroom for very long period already, coz no point and dont want to waste my time.
iwantgizmos
09-07-11, 21:09
To buy private, ec or bto at the start depends on several factors:
1) some get married immediately when they just started to work, then bto is the only option.
2) those who get married late and had accumulate enough wealth to go into private. But provided the price is reasonable and affordable. (reasonable and affordable is rather subjective per say).
3) agree bto is the stepping stone and is a sure win, but will not win much. Private property investment (if bought at right time and right price) can bring your wealth to next level.
If you asked me the same qns in 2003 to 2005, i would have agreed with yjcai.
But judging at current situation, it will be wiser to buy bto. When 4 years ssd and more CM Kicks in, i sian 1/2 already. Never visited any condo showroom for very long period already, coz no point and dont want to waste my time.
one more point to take note is, given the price reasonable and affordable, best to grab these properties before govt tightens its policy further...
those in the best position crurrently are ones who hold both hdb & private prior to the policy implemented previously...
you can fight with speculators, but not with govt... :)
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.2 Copyright © 2024 vBulletin Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.