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Will the interest rates for housing loan goes up by end of this year?
Will the interest rates for housing loan goes up by end of this year?
i believe so, reason being to tamper the inflation. given that some countries like china, australia etc have already increase their interest rate. i think mostly likely in the second half of this year as the govt had signalled the inflation will be controlled at the later half of the year...
thomastansb
16-04-11, 16:01
No. Singapore don't use interest rate to curb inflation. This is always quoted in the news and is MAS policy. They will strengthen S$ which will result in super low interest rate. Especially SOR. S$ just strengthen so you will expect lower interest rate in the next half of the year. Don't read my post blindly. Go read up on the effect of strengthening S$.
Hope this helps.
Will the interest rates for housing loan goes up by end of this year?
No. Singapore don't use interest rate to curb inflation. This is always quoted in the news and is MAS policy. They will strengthen S$ which will result in super low interest rate. Especially SOR. S$ just strengthen so you will expect lower interest rate in the next half of the year. Don't read my post blindly. Go read up on the effect of strengthening S$.
Hope this helps. i belive u :-)
Petertan123
16-04-11, 19:38
No. Singapore don't use interest rate to curb inflation. This is always quoted in the news and is MAS policy. They will strengthen S$ which will result in super low interest rate. Especially SOR. S$ just strengthen so you will expect lower interest rate in the next half of the year. Don't read my post blindly. Go read up on the effect of strengthening S$.
Hope this helps.
In that case, may I know is SOR better than SIBOR for loaning ??
Geylang OKT
16-04-11, 23:21
In that case, may I know is SOR better than SIBOR for loaning ??
SIBOR is better. Be prepared for interest rates to go up, latest by the second half of this year.
Interest rate will probably stay low for another 12 months.
SIBOR VS SOR
Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (SIBOR)
Singapore Interbank Offered Rate is fixed by the Association of Banks in Singapore. It represents the unsecured funds/rates that banks and financial institutions in Singapore lend to each other. Local housing loan interest rates track movements in the Sibor.
Singapore Swap Offer Rate (SOR)
Swap offer rate is fixed by the Association of Banks in Singapore. It represents the average cost of funds used by banks in Singapore for commercial lending.
In Singapore, most banks offer housing loan packages pegged to either SIBOR or SOR, with none offering packages on both rates.
When taking up a home loan from the bank, you would have to choose between fixed or floating rate packages. And if you make a choice of floating rates, you have to consider taking up a package that is pegged to SIBOR, SOR or rates that fluctuate according to the bank’s board rate at its sole discretion.
SIBOR is most likely to be more stable as compared to SOR as the latter is influenced by a Forex component, which in the last few years, have been badly affected due to the erratic world economy and international exchange market.
Although SOR rates have been relatively lower than SIBOR rates for the past couple of months this year (August – October 2009), SOR has gone through rapid movements and at times, has a much higher rate than SIBOR. This makes SIBOR more “stable” for those who are aware of the unpredictable economic changes and on par with market conditions.
The current world economic environment has impacted our local economy and growth forecast, so to decide on what interest rates you would be comfortable with depends on your knowledge on the property market and economy.
The decision boils down to your appetite and view on the market in the future.
If you are buying a property for owns occupation, in a long term, picking a loan with fixed rates or maybe SIBOR-pegged rates would be a better choice for you.
Be prepared that when interest rate start to rise from a very low base, property price climb even faster! Somehow, this phenomenon has played out again again for the last >30 years! :D
SIBOR is better. Be prepared for interest rates to go up, latest by the second half of this year.
Geylang OKT
16-04-11, 23:49
Be prepared that when interest rate start to rise from a very low base, property price climb even faster! Somehow, this phenomenon has played out again again for the last >30 years! :D
Pray tell... how much higher? Property prices have been rising since 2005 :D :D :D
The rise will be unprecedented over the next 3 years, in tandem with unprecedented money printing press that had already occurred for the last 3 years! There is a lag factor for property prices vs money-printed. :cheers1:
Pray tell... how much higher? Property prices have been rising since 2005 :D :D :D
Pray tell... how much higher? Property prices have been rising since 2005 :D :D :D
Bro I get this strange feeling you really missed the boat and hoping prices drop big time.... Must be realistic here... Prices maybe high, and might take a breather... But it doesn't mean it will drop unless there is another crisis... So either you wait for another crisis, or look for a property that you like and get in on the action... If younstudy property market from the past... Prices always very sticky when going down.. Even if there is a crisis, the first 6 months of the crisis prices will not drop yet... Ifnthe crisis continues form more than that then prices will start coming off.... And if the crisis ends before tha then price will remain... Thats why property pricesmalways sticky coming down.. Coz there is nine big factor... Cash flow... Once there is rental income to support... No one will sell
I think it depends on how fast interest rate rises.
Example US will raise rates gradually in phases when US economy is doing well and to control inflation. Higher interest rate will slow demand but not sure if enough to crash the market.
But should there be a crisis in Asia has bad as 97. Money will flow back to the west and interest rate will shoot up to unsustainable level in very short time. That would certainly crash the market.
I think prices now for mass market is already a bubble. But bubble can continue to inflat for a long long time. Beijing bubble is 800% in 8 years. Wouldnt it be a pity had you jump out at 200% 6 years ago?
I think it depends on how fast interest rate rises.
Example US will raise rates gradually in phases when US economy is doing well and to control inflation. Higher interest rate will slow demand but not sure if enough to crash the market.
But should there be a crisis in Asia has bad as 97. Money will flow back to the west and interest rate will shoot up to unsustainable level in very short time. That would certainly crash the market.
I think prices now for mass market is already a bubble. But bubble can continue to inflat for a long long time. Beijing bubble is 800% in 8 years. Wouldnt it be a pity had you jump out at 200% 6 years ago?
in this financial crisis, the world govt already show u how they stablise the market. Print. Flush the market with cash, force equity to rally. Deal with the inflation later. Japan recently done it again. I double money flow to west n interest rate shoot up scenario will pan out, govt wont let it happen.
Geylang OKT
17-04-11, 07:14
Bro I get this strange feeling you really missed the boat and hoping prices drop big time.... Must be realistic here... Prices maybe high, and might take a breather... But it doesn't mean it will drop unless there is another crisis... So either you wait for another crisis, or look for a property that you like and get in on the action... If younstudy property market from the past... Prices always very sticky when going down.. Even if there is a crisis, the first 6 months of the crisis prices will not drop yet... Ifnthe crisis continues form more than that then prices will start coming off.... And if the crisis ends before tha then price will remain... Thats why property pricesmalways sticky coming down.. Coz there is nine big factor... Cash flow... Once there is rental income to support... No one will sell
Bro.... I have been investing in properties since 2001 :D
And I have not sold them throughout these years (thankfully!) as the prices have been rising frenziedly - especially the past couple of years. So now it is an opportune time to take some money off the table first.
Also several new condos have been popping up and more and more are being built, so my realistic take is that my rental yields are going to come down more and more in the coming years due to the aging projects and now that the tenants have way more choices.
So yes, definitely with a view to selling one of them very soon. The profits to be realised are just way too tempting! (in fact started advertising already) :D
I think it depends on how fast interest rate rises.
Example US will raise rates gradually in phases when US economy is doing well and to control inflation. Higher interest rate will slow demand but not sure if enough to crash the market.
But should there be a crisis in Asia has bad as 97. Money will flow back to the west and interest rate will shoot up to unsustainable level in very short time. That would certainly crash the market.
I think prices now for mass market is already a bubble. But bubble can continue to inflat for a long long time. Beijing bubble is 800% in 8 years. Wouldnt it be a pity had you jump out at 200% 6 years ago?
Agreed that prices are climbomg and will continue to do so until a crisis strike. S'pore just set a record against greenback so inflation is slowed down.
devilplate
17-04-11, 09:52
Bro.... I have been investing in properties since 2001 :D
And I have not sold them throughout these years (thankfully!) as the prices have been rising frenziedly - especially the past couple of years. So now it is an opportune time to take some money off the table first.
Also several new condos have been popping up and more and more are being built, so my realistic take is that my rental yields are going to come down more and more in the coming years due to the aging projects and now that the tenants have way more choices.
So yes, definitely with a view to selling one of them very soon. The profits to be realised are just way too tempting! (in fact started advertising already) :D
bcoz u feel ur geylang apts cant fetch gd rental in future?
Singapore Swap Offer Rate (SOR)
Swap offer rate... It represents the average cost of funds used by banks in Singapore for commercial lending
Just want to correct this. This is incorrect. The above quote is most likely from one particular website, and are being quoted in many places/forums and almost "becoming a fact" (btw reminds me of someone ;) )
SOR is a hybrid benchmark quote that are heavily influenced by USDSGD forward rate. An appreciating SGD plus low US rate implies low SOR. It's also volatile by definition because of the fx involved.
Why go up so fast? Care to share?
SIBOR is better. Be prepared for interest rates to go up, latest by the second half of this year.
SOR better than SIBOR for next one year?
Just want to correct this. This is incorrect. The above quote is most likely from one particular website, and are being quoted in many places/forums and almost "becoming a fact" (btw reminds me of someone ;) )
SOR is a hybrid benchmark quote that are heavily influenced by USDSGD forward rate. An appreciating SGD plus low US rate implies low SOR. It's also volatile by definition because of the fx involved.
Are you interested in a FH landed corner terrace with land areas of 3900 sqft and a plot ratio of 1.4 (can build up till 3 storey). Asking is 2.60mil. Not a bad place.
bcoz u feel ur geylang apts cant fetch gd rental in future?
SOR better than SIBOR for next one year?
SOR is probably better over the next 1 year or even less but again anything can happen....:D
Be prepared that when interest rate start to rise from a very low base, property price climb even faster! Somehow, this phenomenon has played out again again for the last >30 years! :D This time, it will be different.
This time, it will be different.
How different? Care to explain?
This interest rate question is best answered by Uncle Sam's Ben.
It is the safest to take any package ie. sor or sibor WITHOUT LOCK-IN. BUC has limited choice compared to completed project.
How different? Care to explain?As the interest rate starts from low base and in order to be able to range in the inflation, the interest rate has to be raised with fury. This will cause alarm and panic will set in. Lots of people will be caught off guard.
Can Federal do that overnight given the situation in US? Do you think MAS will depreciate SGD against US$?
As the interest rate starts from low base and in order to be able to range in the inflation, the interest rate has to be raised with fury. This will cause alarm and panic will set in. Lots of people will be caught off guard.
Can Federal do that overnight given the situation in US? Do you think MAS will depreciate SGD against US$?They must do it if the interest rate rear its ugly head in the near future. It is already rearing its ugly head in euro. QEII is coming to its end. They are talking about exit strategy. Inflation is not going to gently increase. It will come in fast and fury. The Federal has no choice if they want to prevent high interest rate expectation.
But they are still printing money and more money coupled with the bad home loan and even forgery in the home loans.
They must do it if the interest rate rear its ugly head in the near future. It is already rearing its ugly head in euro. QEII is coming to its end. They are talking about exit strategy. Inflation is not going to gently increase. It will come in fast and fury. The Federal has no choice if they want to prevent high interest rate expectation.
But they are still printing money and more money coupled with the bad home loan and even forgery in the home loans.As I said, printing money (QEII) is coming to an end soon (this June). After printing money for so long, when the interest rate rises it will not be a gentle rise. Compare with euro, the US irresposible printing of money will beget much more difficult and uncontrollable interest rate problem. After trying to solve ( without fully successful) their housing/employment problem for so long and there is a new and urgent interest rate expectation problem, the federal will have to pay more attention on the the latter. The FED will not want to be seen creating new problem without actually having solved the old problem. So they must tackle the new problem at the expense of the old problem. Otherwise, they will be accused of having created high interest expectaion and yet did not solve the housing/employment problem at the same time. The old problem ( housing/employment) can remain and said to be thrusted upon them. They cannot shed reponsibility for the new problem ( high interest rate expectation) if it get our of control.
Who on earth or even in heaven say interest rate must be raised to combat inflation? :doh:
People are starting (including Fed) to believe that they can just "talk down" inflation (heck care it) and just need to make sure interest rate is low enough to stimulate economic growth and is also better for managing mortgage loans etc. Unless US economy grow roaringly and US unemployment reduce significantly below 6%, fat chance interest rate will increase much. :D
As the interest rate starts from low base and in order to be able to range in the inflation, the interest rate has to be raised with fury. This will cause alarm and panic will set in. Lots of people will be caught off guard.
They must do it if the interest rate rear its ugly head in the near future. It is already rearing its ugly head in euro. QEII is coming to its end. They are talking about exit strategy. Inflation is not going to gently increase. It will come in fast and fury. The Federal has no choice if they want to prevent high interest rate expectation.
You're wrong. Any sudden huge increase in interest rates will derail the already fragile economy and increase unemployment. US govt won't risk it especially with the coming presidential elections.
It is quite obvious that FED created the second problem. Everyone knows it. We shall end of QE2.
As I said, printing money (QEII) is coming to an end soon (this June). After printing money for so long, when the interest rate rises it will not be a gentle rise. Compare with euro, the US irresposible printing of money will beget much more difficult and uncontrollable interest rate problem. After trying to solve ( without fully successful) their housing/employment problem for so long and there is a new and urgent interest rate expectation problem, the federal will have to pay more attention on the the latter. The FED will not want to be seen creating new problem without actually having solved the old problem. So they must tackle the new problem at the expense of the old problem. Otherwise, they will be accused of having created high interest expectaion and yet did not solve the housing/employment problem at the same time. The old problem ( housing/employment) can remain and said to be thrusted upon them. They cannot shed reponsibility for the new problem ( high interest rate expectation) if it get our of control.
Who on earth or even in heaven say interest rate must be raised to combat inflation? :doh:
People are starting (including Fed) to believe that they can just "talk down" inflation (heck care it) and just need to make sure interest rate is low enough to stimulate economic growth and is also better for managing mortgage loans etc. Unless US economy grow roaringly and US unemployment reduce significantly below 6%, fat chance interest rate will increase much. :DIf talking can solve interest rate problem, then the FED chairman post should be given to sale person ( or the market vegetable seller). Remember the task of FED is to maintain price stability and employment. They have been trying to solve the employment problem and it will take many more years before it is solve. Most probably they will have a generation of workers who will remember that employment does not come easy to them. It will be a unemployment recovery for them. If the FED let the interest rate problem to spiral, they will have totally failed in their duty. The unemployment will be here to stay for very long ( thanks to their years of excesses) and they will say let tackle the new problem while waiting for the old problem to subside, or even at the expense of the old problem. After all the old problem has been with us for so long. Let not care ( temporary) for a while and tackle the new interest rate problem.
You're wrong. Any sudden huge increase in interest rates will derail the already fragile economy and increase unemployment. US govt won't risk it especially with the coming presidential elections.A sudden interest rate increase is meant to stem inflation and inflation expectation. A high inflation expectation is a recipe for hyper inflation. A high inflation is no good for any election ( you already can see it in Sngapore where they garmen is having problem in convincing the people that the problem is under control).
A sudden interest rate increase is meant to stem inflation and inflation expectation. A high inflation expectation is a recipe for hyper inflation. A high inflation is no good for any election ( you already can see it in Sngapore where they garmen is having problem in convincing the people that the problem is under control).
Then y u think Singapore GOVT adjust our currency so high against USD? Monetary policy have the same effect as fiscal.
Y pple so bothered about when interest rate is going up? It is definately going up. Not this year then next year lor. if not then 3 yrs from now lor..... Once US shows signs of recovery, they will slowly adjust upwards.
For now, the middle east Oil crisis is definitely put any interest rate adjustment on hold.
Then y u think Singapore GOVT adjust our currency so high against USD? Monetary policy have the same effect as fiscal.
Y pple so bothered about when interest rate is going up? It is definately going up. Not this year then next year lor. if not then 3 yrs from now lor..... Once US shows signs of recovery, they will slowly adjust upwards.
For now, the middle east Oil crisis is definitely put any interest rate adjustment on hold.
Hopefully home prices rise in tandem with interest rates..... which usually happens.
If higher interest rate is a measure to combat inflation, inflation would also have meant that rental has also gone up to. That will help offset the mortgage payments.
Sell with profit if really cannot tahan high rates lor....:)
What are the chances of interest going up, home prices coming down + rental coming down at the same time? That will be the scenario that will screw everyone.... What are the chances :beats-me-man: When was the last time this happen? asian economic crisis?
US got what inflation?
to my untrained eye, they just discovered food commodities inflation as another way for regime change. No need for CIA anymore. Just tell the brokers to bid up food futures high high. Unfriendly nations wont get any assistance.
Love to see some interesting discussions on interest rates :)
Patricia, ur view of the interest rate is too conventional, i.e. classic text book macro economics. In this world, it does not work any more, particularly in the case of US. Uncle Ben is very clever. With such massive QEs and yet u see yields are still less than 3. Why ? Because u have china. This is a perfect chance for US to abuse it's position and bring himself out of recession, at every one else's cost. USD had been depreciated systematically 10% a year. This is what they want. Never mind other ppl's asset inflation problem. Look at US housing, it's still declining. There is even more need to sustain low rates in the US. It will depreciate itself out of this recession. Who ask u to still trust US as AAA and still take it as reserve ccy ?
Love to see some interesting discussions on interest rates :)
Patricia, ur view of the interest rate is too conventional, i.e. classic text book macro economics. In this world, it does not work any more, particularly in the case of US. Uncle Ben is very clever. With such massive QEs and yet u see yields are still less than 3. Why ? Because u have china. This is a perfect chance for US to abuse it's position and bring himself out of recession, at every one else's cost. USD had been depreciated systematically 10% a year. This is what they want. Never mind other ppl's asset inflation problem. Look at US housing, it's still declining. There is even more need to sustain low rates in the US. It will depreciate itself out of this recession. Who ask u to still trust US as AAA and still take it as reserve ccy ?
Does this mean we can still short USDSGD?
I wonder how many of us who believe that US is depreciating short USDSGD? I know of friends who can debate with conviction, but they neither long or short. :doh:
Hi All,
I see great discussions and debates on this sensitive topic.
With that, can we all simplify the debating process and coming back to the main topic before we drift too far?
In your honest opinion, will interest rate goes up further? Will our dollar strengthening by MAS helps us to combat the future increasing interest rate if there is any.
Look forward to $1.20 in end of June.
Does this mean we can still short USDSGD?
I wonder how many of us who believe that US is depreciating short USDSGD? I know of friends who can debate with conviction, but they neither long or short. :doh:
rattydrama
17-04-11, 21:44
Look forward to $1.20 in end of June.
Which means sibor rate not going up to more than 2% this year :-)
You are right to say that the Fed has to solve the un-employment problem first and This will take many years! So, interest rate may take many years to go back to previously normal rate! They are using super low interest rate (in fact, negative real interest rate when taking inflation into consideration) and super money printing to try to reflate their economy which hopefully results in lower un-employment. Who heck care inflation when they are benign at the moment in US? Oil prices can run to US$150 and commodity prices can go up another 50% and still Fed will not change anything (because US is a service industry where manpower costs are much more than the commodities used! Anyway they are the biggest soft commodities producer!).
If talking can solve interest rate problem, then the FED chairman post should be given to sale person ( or the market vegetable seller). Remember the task of FED is to maintain price stability and employment. They have been trying to solve the employment problem and it will take many more years before it is solve. Most probably they will have a generation of workers who will remember that employment does not come easy to them. It will be a unemployment recovery for them. If the FED let the interest rate problem to spiral, they will have totally failed in their duty. The unemployment will be here to stay for very long ( thanks to their years of excesses) and they will say let tackle the new problem while waiting for the old problem to subside, or even at the expense of the old problem. After all the old problem has been with us for so long. Let not care ( temporary) for a while and tackle the new interest rate problem.
Interest rate will go definitely go up 1 day, but to go back to normal rate of 5% probably may take 5-8 years?
SGD will continue to strengthen until US shows strong economic recovery and unemployment goes down to normal rate.
Looks like the property bull and SGD bull party can still go on for at least next 3 years!
Hi All,
I see great discussions and debates on this sensitive topic.
With that, can we all simplify the debating process and coming back to the main topic before we drift too far?
In your honest opinion, will interest rate goes up further? Will our dollar strengthening by MAS helps us to combat the future increasing interest rate if there is any.
Interest rate will go definitely go up 1 day, but to go back to normal rate of 5% probably may take 5-8 years?
SGD will continue to strengthen until US shows strong economic recovery and unemployment goes down to normal rate.
Looks like the property bull and SGD bull party can still go on for at least next 3 years!
i agree too that interest rate will go up one day, it is just a question of when and how much...too much a jump of interest is not good for the govt and rest of the economy but too low is also not a good thing either...besides inflation, there are always the hot money...i believe one day there is a crisis..as human is not infallible and system is made by human :P, "black swans" will exist, just that we don't know in what form they will come in...
Geylang OKT
17-04-11, 22:18
bcoz u feel ur geylang apts cant fetch gd rental in future?
Geylang properties should do very well going forward!
I love geylang :D :D :D
(ps my investment properties not in geylang hor) :cool: :cool: :cool:
Interest rate will go definitely go up 1 day, but to go back to normal rate of 5% probably may take 5-8 years?
SGD will continue to strengthen until US shows strong economic recovery and unemployment goes down to normal rate.
Looks like the property bull and SGD bull party can still go on for at least next 3 years!
Interest rate may not reach 5% again... Typically the housing cycle is about 7 to 10 years between peaks and troughs. Interest rate will climb real slow (not in the govt interest to let it shoot up quickly) and since next cycle of down will be due in next 3 to 4 years (based on 7 year cycle) and interest rate may not return to 5% yet. Anyway, anything can still happen from now... :eek:
We should keep our eyes open for possible crisis. Events that will trigger high interest rates.
So far we have withstood nuclear crisis, oil disruption, europe sovereign debts pretty well.
What crisis will matter most? I think it will have to be really major or very near to our location.
stalingrad
18-04-11, 12:19
interest rates are low because of MAS's graduation appreciation policy, which draws hot money into singapore since foreigners with worthless US dollars are guaranteed a profit a year from now.
the way to combat inflation is to abandon the graduate appreciation policy, and instead allow a sudden jump in Sing dollar exchange rates by about 5-10%. After that, the movement of Sing dollar will become a random walk, and foreign money will stop gushing into Singapore. And then interest rates will jump.
so you think the low interest rates are the problem for the housing bubble, complain to MAS. but I doubt they will listen. They are still worrying about strong sing dollar disrupting the export recovery.
bargain hunter
18-04-11, 12:21
major crisis is always something which we cannot imagine or foresee. :D
We should keep our eyes open for possible crisis. Events that will trigger high interest rates.
So far we have withstood nuclear crisis, oil disruption, europe sovereign debts pretty well.
What crisis will matter most? I think it will have to be really major or very near to our location.
stalingrad
18-04-11, 12:28
barring another financial crisis, QE will stop sooner or later. thus, interest rates in the US have no place to go but up. and the sin dollar will not go much higher against the US dollar. thus, interest rates in singapore have probably bottomed and will go up gradually.
thus, I would say that the housing bubble in Singapore is going to slowly deflate in the next two to three years. thus, buying now is probably suicidal.
if you wait a while, you can probably buy rivergate at $1,500psf in about three years, and lakefront at $800psf. that is my prediction.
stalingrad
18-04-11, 12:47
I also predict that capitaland will eventually sell out d'leedon and the interlace, but only after dropping the average price of the former to 1,200psf and the latter to $900psf.
..interest rates in the US have no place to go but up...
when u r already at 0, the only number to go is up. no brainer on this. :cool:
we are here to debate when and how much this to go.
as long as US unemployment is at 9%, it's going to be a long time before fed target ever reaches 1%.
a "normal" rate last time was 4% ok ? not going to happen for at least another 2yrs.
stalingrad
18-04-11, 12:57
when u r already at 0, the only number to go is up. no brainer on this. :cool:
we are here to debate when and how much this to go.
as long as US unemployment is at 9%, it's going to be a long time before fed target ever reaches 1%.
a "normal" rate last time was 4% ok ? not going to happen for at least another 2yrs.
may be sooner than you are predicting. once interest rates in the US begin to trend upward, MAS will stop its gradual appreciation policy. then, both SOR and SIBR will jump.
as I said, it is the gradual appreciation rate that lies at the root of all problems. once it is gone, all hell may break loose.
What crisis will matter most?
in my opinion, the only crisis capable of crashing the world right now is China
in my opinion, the only crisis capable of crashing the world right now is China
IMO, too obvious a target for wolfpack to attack. Probably will come from an asian country, which then spreads. Who I dont know. But timing should be 2013-2015, like business cycle.
thomastansb
18-04-11, 13:48
Agree. Prices was so stubborn despite the financial crisis. It took a Lehman collapse, Merill lynch hostile takeover AND near collapse of BoA, Citibank, AIG etc to correct the market by 15%. How often do you hear Lehman going down or major insurance company closing shop? And only 15% correction. So I believe another crisis will probably take 10% off the current price? That is not a lot.
Bro I get this strange feeling you really missed the boat and hoping prices drop big time.... Must be realistic here... Prices maybe high, and might take a breather... But it doesn't mean it will drop unless there is another crisis... So either you wait for another crisis, or look for a property that you like and get in on the action... If younstudy property market from the past... Prices always very sticky when going down.. Even if there is a crisis, the first 6 months of the crisis prices will not drop yet... Ifnthe crisis continues form more than that then prices will start coming off.... And if the crisis ends before tha then price will remain... Thats why property pricesmalways sticky coming down.. Coz there is nine big factor... Cash flow... Once there is rental income to support... No one will sell
People who are so scared of interest rate jump has another avenue to hedge this perceived risks: take up 5-years fixed rate loan, now only 1.88% pa. Very cheap indeed!
So no problem, can buy property now, take 80% loan at 1.88% pa fixed for 5 years, rent out at 3.5% pa and pocket the difference! The bigger the property and leverage, the more they earn! :D
may be sooner than you are predicting. once interest rates in the US begin to trend upward, MAS will stop its gradual appreciation policy. then, both SOR and SIBR will jump.
as I said, it is the gradual appreciation rate that lies at the root of all problems. once it is gone, all hell may break loose.
thomastansb
18-04-11, 13:54
Why would interest rate jump if MAS stop its appreciation policy? Doesn't make sense to me
may be sooner than you are predicting. once interest rates in the US begin to trend upward, MAS will stop its gradual appreciation policy. then, both SOR and SIBR will jump.
as I said, it is the gradual appreciation rate that lies at the root of all problems. once it is gone, all hell may break loose.
if you wait a while, you can probably buy rivergate at $1,500psf in about three years, and lakefront at $800psf. that is my prediction.Have never seen psf dropping continually for 3 years if you are suggesting that prices are falling now... unless u are saying prices are still climbing now but in 2 years' time, something drastic will happen which will send prices plummeting. :tsk-tsk:
He keep saying sure drop and ultimately he will be right, may be 8 years later? :p
For now, he is sucking his sore thumb. :D
Have never seen psf dropping continually for 3 years if you are suggesting that prices are falling now... unless u are saying prices are still climbing now but in 2 years' time, something drastic will happen which will send prices plummeting. :tsk-tsk:
stalingrad
18-04-11, 14:54
He keep saying sure drop and ultimately he will be right, may be 8 years later? :p
For now, he is sucking his sore thumb. :D
I am not a sour grape. I bought an OCR condo in early 2007 and am sitting on a paper profit of at least $800,000.
I was just stating the obvious.
normally, when interest rates are at historical lows, it is the top of the market, as it is now.
I am not a sour grape. I bought an OCR condo in early 2007 and am sitting on a paper profit of at least $800,000.
I was just stating the obvious.
normally, when interest rates are at historical lows, it is the top of the market, as it is now.
I am impressed. Can share which area or even better the name of the project.
I am not a sour grape. I bought an OCR condo in early 2007 and am sitting on a paper profit of at least $800,000.
I was just stating the obvious.
normally, when interest rates are at historical lows, it is the top of the market, as it is now.
is that your carabelle?
stalingrad
18-04-11, 16:25
is that your carabelle?
that is not important. the point I was trying to make is that while I am a beneficiary of the bubble, I am not afraid to call it a bubble induced by ultra-low interest rates.
by pointing out I am sitting on a sizable paper profit, I show that I am not trying to talk down the market to benefit myself.
I am not a sour grape. I bought an OCR condo in early 2007 and am sitting on a paper profit of at least $800,000.
I was just stating the obvious.
normally, when interest rates are at historical lows, it is the top of the market, as it is now.
When the market was at peak in 2008 before the crisis was the interest at historical now? Nope!! It was near to 5%. It was top of the mkt then. Make profit 800k doesn't mean u r right abt the future right? Just like y u didn't explain y capitaland is worth $2 based on your valuations. Your NAV pluck from where? How u derive $1200 Psf?
that is not important. the point I was trying to make is that while I am a beneficiary of the bubble, I am not afraid to call it a bubble induced by ultra-low interest rates.
by pointing out I am sitting on a sizable paper profit, I show that I am not trying to talk down the market to benefit myself.
How much did you buy at and how big is your unit? How come can make so much money?
If market bubble then quickly sell now... What are you waiting for guru? Then take your 800k and wait for market crash then buy back carabelle and pocket the difference... Let all of us share your happiness together... Let us know when you finally sold... Good luck....
devilplate
18-04-11, 17:18
How much did you buy at and how big is your unit? How come can make so much money?
dun take him seriously lah:p
Devilplate, PM me if you interested in FH landed property of about $2.6mil.
dun take him seriously lah:p
Your view is interesting - Let's see whether it is true:
1) Interest rate was already super low in 2009, was property price at top?
Answer: No, price was at 1 of the lowest in recent history. Your so-called low rate has been around for 2 years now, and your so-called "top" price continue to be even "topper" and "topper" (higher and higher)!
2) If interest rate super low means property price at top implies conversely interest rate high means price at bottom?
Answer: No, In 2007, interest rate raising to 5%, but prices keep increasing to top (instead of bottom). So, it seems that when interest rate start to increase from a low base (e.g. from 2003), price also continue to increase (from 2003 low to 2008 top). :D
Your view does not correlate with the truth in the past, and unlikely to be true now and in the future. :doh:
I am not a sour grape. I bought an OCR condo in early 2007 and am sitting on a paper profit of at least $800,000.
I was just stating the obvious.
normally, when interest rates are at historical lows, it is the top of the market, as it is now.
DOW Jones already down 200pts as at 10.30pm with NASDAQ (down 50) and S&P (down 20) all in the red. S&P revises debt outlook from stable to negative. Interest rate will remain low for a while. Euro Debt crisis weigh Euro's market down. A blue monday.
DOW Jones already down 200pts as at 10.30pm with NASDAQ (down 50) and S&P (down 20) all in the red. S&P revises debt outlook from stable to negative. Interest rate will remain low for a while. Euro Debt crisis weigh Euro's market down. A blue monday.
A good monday! Rates will remain low
Abit out of topic here but need some opinions on some loan packages for my new place and hope you guys can help me out.
1) 2 year lock in
Year 1 3m sor + 0.5%
Year 2 3m sor + 0.75%
Ta 3m Sor + 1.25%
2) No lock in
Year 1 n 2 3m sor + 0.7
Year 3 n 4 3m sor + 0.75%
Ta 3m Sor + 1%
3) 2 year lock in
Year 1 n 2 1/3/12m sibor + 0.65%
Ta 1/3/12m sibor + 0.65%
devilplate
19-04-11, 14:28
For sibor, i will always choose no lock in.... Marginal diff only
Several considerations. If your property is BUC, then I'll probably go for 1 or 2 year lock in depending when the TOP. This is because there are many packages offered by banks that allow a one time renewal of the loan package upon TOP then I'll consider again then.
If its resale, then I'll consider either 1 year lock in or no lock in. I'm quite sure as a result of the SSD @ 16% for 1st year, I'll probably not sell the property in its first year of acquisition. At the current market sentiments, extremely difficult to find a buyer who'll offer more than 16% of original price plus the agent and lawyer fee to make your sale reasonable. :tsk-tsk:
devilplate
20-04-11, 18:24
Several considerations. If your property is BUC, then I'll probably go for 1 or 2 year lock in depending when the TOP. This is because there are many packages offered by banks that allow a one time renewal of the loan package upon TOP then I'll consider again then.
If its resale, then I'll consider either 1 year lock in or no lock in. I'm quite sure as a result of the SSD @ 16% for 1st year, I'll probably not sell the property in its first year of acquisition. At the current market sentiments, extremely difficult to find a buyer who'll offer more than 16% of original price plus the agent and lawyer fee to make your sale reasonable. :tsk-tsk:
sibor/sor no lock in better.....anytime can convert to fixed rate if int rate starts to rise
Abit out of topic here but need some opinions on some loan packages for my new place and hope you guys can help me out.
1) 2 year lock in
Year 1 3m sor + 0.5%
Year 2 3m sor + 0.75%
Ta 3m Sor + 1.25%
2) No lock in
Year 1 n 2 3m sor + 0.7
Year 3 n 4 3m sor + 0.75%
Ta 3m Sor + 1%
3) 2 year lock in
Year 1 n 2 1/3/12m sibor + 0.65%
Ta 1/3/12m sibor + 0.65%
what bank you are with? all your rates looks quite crap
devilplate
20-04-11, 19:21
what bank you are with? all your rates looks quite crap
tot looks pretty standard...
not unless u buy from developer and those banks will den offer special promo package.....for eg. SOR+0% until TOP for waterbank....hehe
sibor/sor no lock in better.....anytime can convert to fixed rate if int rate starts to rise
No lock in usually lousier rate than 1yr lock in so I'll prefer to enjoy first year than decide what's next... hahaha... :D
devilplate
21-04-11, 09:07
No lock in usually lousier rate than 1yr lock in so I'll prefer to enjoy first year than decide what's next... hahaha... :D
den ppl like u shd go for 1mth SOR now....lowest:D
I actually took the bank's rate, not pegged to SIBOR or SOR. Its the cheapest for 1st year before it climb but my BUC project will get TOP within 1 year (at least I hope) so will re-contract then. HaHaHa! :cheers1:
what bank you are with? all your rates looks quite crap
This is a resale apartment and these are some of the best rates i can find. Anyway, the rates are from CIMB, DBS and citibank. The citibank one looks quite decent as it offers flexibilty to switch between 1/3/6/12 month sibor during the loan period.
2 years back I took from UOB for my resale purchase. it was an attractive package then. Now, I am not sure. Overseas bank might be more attractive. Try Maybank as well?
Not sure if you know that you have to pay penalty on the undisbursed fund if you redeemed it. There is a clause on this.
I actually took the bank's rate, not pegged to SIBOR or SOR. Its the cheapest for 1st year before it climb but my BUC project will get TOP within 1 year (at least I hope) so will re-contract then. HaHaHa! :cheers1:
Not sure if you know that you have to pay penalty on the undisbursed fund if you redeemed it. There is a clause on this.
No worries... I've already read the clause and clarified with my bank agent that it is a one time free re-contract. However it must be done within 6 months of TOP of my property. Anyway thx for your concern. Appreciate it. :D
What if you refinance it with another bank?
No worries... I've already read the clause and clarified with my bank agent that it is a one time free re-contract. However it must be done within 6 months of TOP of my property. Anyway thx for your concern. Appreciate it. :D
What if you refinance it with another bank?Of course cannot lah... :D
That is the problem. A lot of people will say no problem with BUC project, just take a package can change later. But this clause will corner them. There may be other more attractive loan package then when compare to the refinance package which your bank offer.
Of course cannot lah... :D
devilplate
21-04-11, 21:18
That is the problem. A lot of people will say no problem with BUC project, just take a package can change later. But this clause will corner them. There may be other more attractive loan package then when compare to the refinance package which your bank offer.
Dun forget the 3yr clawbck for legal fees
This is not so bad becos the refinance bank will pay the legal fee for the refinance home loan. Some banks even pay for the clawback + penalty (abt 0.4% of the loan amount. or a cap of $4000.)
Dun forget the 3yr clawbck for legal fees
Petertan123
21-04-11, 23:14
wah, so good... care to share which bank ??
devilplate
21-04-11, 23:27
This is not so bad becos the refinance bank will pay the legal fee for the refinance home loan. Some banks even pay for the clawback + penalty (abt 0.4% of the loan amount. or a cap of $4000.)
but u cannot sell within 3yrs liao.....the ultimate clawback will kill u
but u cannot sell within 3yrs liao.....the ultimate clawback will kill uWith the current CM, you will probably not sell within 3 years. Difficult to find a buyer who'd pay more than 8%. Even if you find one, you'll probably just breakeven reducing your gains to only the rents. Not very attractive leh! :spliff:
You may want to check with HSBC. Not sure if they have discontinued with it.
wah, so good... care to share which bank ??
No worries... I've already read the clause and clarified with my bank agent that it is a one time free re-contract. However it must be done within 6 months of TOP of my property. Anyway thx for your concern. Appreciate it. :D
Most BUC package have this TOP onetime conversion. But there is no free lunch. The packages u r eligible to convert to are NOT the best packages of the bank at the time. It's at their discretion what kind of packages are available for u to "convert", some of them can be worse.
devilplate
22-04-11, 19:26
Most BUC package have this TOP onetime conversion. But there is no free lunch. The packages u r eligible to convert to are NOT the best packages of the bank at the time. It's at their discretion what kind of packages are available for u to "convert", some of them can be worse.
yeah....i recently converted clift to 3m+0.85% (still better den +1.25% last time...LOL)
now easily can get +0.7%:banghead:
Even lower for first year but not throughout loan tenure.
yeah....i recently converted clift to 3m+0.85% (still better den +1.25% last time...LOL)
now easily can get +0.7%:banghead:
devilplate
23-04-11, 12:59
Even lower for first year but not throughout loan tenure.
well ...a little consolation.....mine is +0.85% throughout:D
yeah....i recently converted clift to 3m+0.85% (still better den +1.25% last time...LOL)
now easily can get +0.7%:banghead:
sibor or sor?
Is it a fixed rate all the way or is it only the first year?
which bank.
devilplate
23-04-11, 13:02
sibor or sor?
Is it a fixed rate all the way or is it only the first year?
which bank.
not sure whether its a standard package for all wor...so i shall not disclose the details....pm me if u wan lor....
One month ago has a great offer for only 2 weeks at 0.65% throughout.
well ...a little consolation.....mine is +0.85% throughout:D
devilplate
23-04-11, 13:13
One month ago has a great offer for only 2 weeks at 0.65% throughout.
wif no lock in too?
special tie up wif a new launch?
sounds really gd deal to secure tat package if no lock in
No lock in. Refinance package.
wif no lock in too?
special tie up wif a new launch?
sounds really gd deal to secure tat package if no lock in
devilplate
23-04-11, 13:15
One month ago has a great offer for only 2 weeks at 0.65% throughout.
actually hor....i always stick to the same bank so far....except waterbank(sor+zero is simply unbeatable)....i am a sucker for service:ashamed1: :D
devilplate
23-04-11, 13:18
No lock in. Refinance package.
i calculate hor....tink not worth it to refinance since my loan amt is small....so stick wif the same bank even though got no lock-in penalty....
coz refinance...clawback 2.5k legal fees.....incur new 2.5k legal fees again.....even though all can be subsidise....but if u sell within next 3yrs....tio clawback everything......and troublesome to resubmit paperwork and not all banks provide asset based loan.....for eg. ocbc dun do tat...nid a guarantor letter....so maifan:doh:
Yup! If yours is complicated like asset based loan. It's fun doing refinancing from time to time as we get to know more bankers who help us to grow our money and get invited to lunch wealth talks. Like to leverage on other people's money and grow own's money at higher returns besides investing in properties. 2.5k is not alot when returns are many times of that.
i calculate hor....tink not worth it to refinance since my loan amt is small....so stick wif the same bank even though got no lock-in penalty....
coz refinance...clawback 2.5k legal fees.....incur new 2.5k legal fees again.....even though all can be subsidise....but if u sell within next 3yrs....tio clawback everything......and troublesome to resubmit paperwork and not all banks provide asset based loan.....for eg. ocbc dun do tat...nid a guarantor letter....so maifan:doh:
kingkong1984
23-04-11, 21:57
Check out may banks. Try redeeming and see what they will offer.
devilplate
23-04-11, 22:41
Check out may banks. Try redeeming and see what they will offer.
maybank service level just not there
fixed rate quite attractive though
Petertan123
24-04-11, 10:00
Hi all,
Just wish to seek advice here.
DBS is offering SIBOR + 0.75%...No lockin..
Is it a good offer ?? :confused:
kingkong1984
24-04-11, 11:42
Good enough, may bank better, u go check promo
maybank service level just not there
fixed rate quite attractive though
Maybank service not bad lah... maybe its just coincidental you got a lousy service while mine was ok... :sleep:
What is maybank's promotional package now?
Good enough, may bank better, u go check promo
What is maybank's promotional package now?http://info.maybank2u.com.sg/personal/loans/property-loans/private-property-home-loan.aspx. You can always call in to check coz there are usually promotions which are too new so not online yet!
Maybank service not bad lah... maybe its just coincidental you got a lousy service while mine was ok... :sleep:#^*# I take back my words. Just got a :mad: :flaming-head: :character0029: service from Maybank!
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