View Full Version : Housing Sector in Singapore Only Getting Hotter
Housing Sector in Singapore Only Getting Hotter
Kevin Lim | March 27, 2011
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/media/images/medium2/20110327212925023.jpg The display room of a high-end waterfront development in Singapore. Many residents say they are being priced out of the property market. (AFP Photo)
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Singapore. Wendy Cheng, 32, has been trying to buy a home for more than two years without success.
Cheng and her American teacher husband cannot afford property on the open market where a government-built apartment can fetch as much as $700,000 Singapore dollars ($553,000), and they have been unsuccessful in balloting for apartments available from the state at a cheaper price.
At her last attempt to buy an apartment directly from Singapore’s Housing Development Board, she was given a waiting-list number of 1,983 for the 200 units offered, which meant she could get a unit only if 1,783 of the people in front of her dropped out.
“It’s like trying to win the lottery,” she said of her efforts to buy her own place, a predicament shared by an increasing number of young Singaporeans who feel they can no longer afford homes, unlike their parents’ generation.
Private home prices in Singapore rose 17.6 percent last year despite government attempts to cool the market in February and August. Resale prices of HDB apartments that house more than 80 percent of the population gained 14 percent.
The city-state’s median household income rose a much smaller 3.1 percent, or 0.3 percent after adjusting for inflation, to S$5,000 a month last year.
Singapore, Asia’s second-largest financial center after Hong Kong, has one of the world’s highest rates of home ownership at 87 percent, thanks to a home-building program to provide cheap housing for its citizens that began in the late 1960s.
But the HDB is building fewer apartments and charging more for them. Prices of both resale HDB apartments and private property have also soared due to an influx of foreigners in recent years.
“The high property prices, especially for private homes, is a festering source of disappointment, unhappiness and perhaps anger among voters,” said Eugene Tan, a law lecturer at Singapore Management University. “Parents are also concerned with how their children are going to afford comparable homes in the future. The angst and anxieties are made worse by the view that foreigners are pushing up property prices.”
Foreigners now make up 36 percent of Singapore’s population of 5.1 million, up from around 20 percent of four million people a decade earlier, after the government made it easier for foreigners to work in the city-state.
Many Singaporeans also blame higher property prices on the sharp drop in HDB construction after the government agency moved to a build-to-order policy several years ago. According to HDB data, the government agency completed an average of 3,600 units a year in 2006-08 compared with more than 11,000 units per annum in 2001-05.
Singapore, like Hong Kong and China, has found it difficult to keep a lid on property prices due to the surge in global liquidity that has pushed mortgage rates to near record lows and an influx of foreign money.
Kelvin Tay, chief investment strategist for Singapore at UBS’s private bank, said property prices were supported by low interest rates and the market could correct sharply if borrowing costs rose to more normal levels of around 3.5 percent.
The city-state’s banks currently pay less than 0.2 percent annual interest on deposits, while home buyers can get housing loans for as little as 0.8 percent per annum for the first year and about 1.5 percent thereafter. Inflation, meanwhile, is running at 5 percent.
The low mortgage rates have made prices affordable. For example, after paying a minimum down payment of 20 percent for a S$1 million apartment in the suburbs, the going price for many newly launched units, a person can borrow S$800,000 over 30 years and pay around S$2,500 a month assuming a housing loan rate of 1 percent per annum. The monthly payments soars to around S$3,600 a month if the rate rises to 3.5 percent per annum.
The government is aware that Singaporeans are concerned about high home prices, and has stepped up construction of HDB apartments and increased subsidies for first-time home buyers in the lower-income groups.
It also introduced tough new measures on Jan. 13 that included tougher borrowing limits and a hefty stamp duty of 16 percent of the selling price for those who buy and sell within 12 months, aiming to clamp down on speculators.
Despite that, new private homes sales remained high at 1,101 units in February compared with 1,209 in January.
Developers such as CapitaLand, 40-percent owned by the government’s Temasek Holdings, have also bid aggressively at land sales, buying sites at prices that require a further increase in home prices for them to break even.
Prices of HDB resale apartments and low-end condominiums have stabilized since the government’s January measures but luxury homes continue to be in demand. Analysts said there was spillover demand from cash-rich mainland Chinese investors who last year overtook Indonesians to become the largest group of foreign buyers of residential property in Singapore.
Reuters
devilplate
28-03-11, 12:26
i tink i read smwhr tat if the first timers did not go for the selection twice....subsequently, they will be placed after those who apply for the 1st or 2nd time.....
how true isit ar?
i got a fren din go for selection twice previously ....den their latest one which is their 3rd time applying, they got 1000+ queue number whereas another fren who applied the same project got 200+ queue number(1st time apply)
my advice is: whether its true or not true....pls dun apply for fun....take it seriously even for the 1st try:D
At her last attempt to buy an apartment directly from Singapore’s Housing Development Board, she was given a waiting-list number of 1,983 for the 200 units offered, which meant she could get a unit only if 1,783 of the people in front of her dropped out.
should be not the first time...the statement said her last attempt(my view is not the first attempt)...:2cents:
Wild Falcon
28-03-11, 14:04
Actually a lot of these first-timers who wrote in to complain onl give half-truths. I remember there was this guy who complain he couldn't get a flat. Ended up the real story is he rejected the flats like 7-8 times because low floor lah etc etc. Then another guy few weeks ago also wrote in to complain. Then the real story was he only wanted Pinnacles at Duxton or the Queenstown one and insisted HDB gave him a direct allocation which is not fair to everyone else. So this one must be lying again.
Regulators
28-03-11, 14:15
It is all about their lifestyle, how can two working professionals not afford an HDB flat? I heard of some couples earning decently but they lead lavish lifestyles and drive expensive cars, leaving little in the bank and even chalking up a few tens of thousands of credit card debt. Nobody says they have to buy $700k hdb flats in the open market, they can always go for 4 room flats in less expensive areas.
As usual, there are alot of flats around...just that people all want high floor unblocked good facing, near shopping mall, next to MRT and yet dun want to pay the premium for them. :tsk-tsk:
Condo Kaiser
28-03-11, 21:00
A lot of singaporeans still look at buying HDB like winning lottery, never get the good units don't want to buy. At the ned of day complaint non stop.
But HDB also miscalculated the demand. Just hope they don't inject too much supply now and flood the market.
A lot of singaporeans still look at buying HDB like winning lottery, never get the good units don't want to buy. At the ned of day complaint non stop.
But HDB also miscalculated the demand. Just hope they don't inject too much supply now and flood the market.
Actually injecting too much supply is not all that bad... These units will be there to ensure that sellers don't command the market so aggressively. In fact, HDB will not loose out coz these units will eventually be sold therefore HDB will not lose revenue, just delay in receiving them. They are also assuring singapreans that there is ample supply. Win Win situation....:D
Many Singaporeans also blame higher property prices on the sharp drop in HDB construction after the government agency moved to a build-to-order policy several years ago. According to HDB data, the government agency completed an average of 3,600 units a year in 2006-08 compared with more than 11,000 units per annum in 2001-05.
not good:doh:
n i hope they reverse the bto policy..
Many Singaporeans also blame higher property prices on the sharp drop in HDB construction after the government agency moved to a build-to-order policy several years ago. According to HDB data, the government agency completed an average of 3,600 units a year in 2006-08 compared with more than 11,000 units per annum in 2001-05.
not good:doh:
n i hope they reverse the bto policy..
BTO is good. Order liao then build. Problem is never take order or take order long long time then another one.
should do something online ma. pple login register, once enough min orders put in, straight trigger developer start work.
BTO is good. Order liao then build. Problem is never take order or take order long long time then another one.
should do something online ma. pple login register, once enough min orders put in, straight trigger developer start work.
Good for KS couples, those who can afford to wait, those who need to wait coz need to save $$ and also good for govt...
I think both last time and now not good.
The best way is to have a ready inventory of flats to be sold.
I mean all business must keep inventory right? Does not mean if you cannot 100% forecast demand, you keep 0 inventory and ask you customer to wait.
Last time, HDB seriously screwed up and have way too much inventory. So what did our million dollar minister come up with? 0 inventory. no work for them to do, Just ask everyone to wait AND subject the market to more volatility. With zero inventory, there is little they can do to cool a red hot market. Release land also must wait 3-4 years before anything comes out.
This is something I totally disagree with. I mean IF in a REAL COMPANY that guy who forecast the demand totally screwed up and come up with a brilliant suggestion, "hey lets not keep any inventory, that will solve our problem..."
devilplate
30-03-11, 09:16
I think both last time and now not good.
The best way is to have a ready inventory of flats to be sold.
I mean all business must keep inventory right? Does not mean if you cannot 100% forecast demand, you keep 0 inventory and ask you customer to wait.
Last time, HDB seriously screwed up and have way too much inventory. So what did our million dollar minister come up with? 0 inventory. no work for them to do, Just ask everyone to wait AND subject the market to more volatility. With zero inventory, there is little they can do to cool a red hot market. Release land also must wait 3-4 years before anything comes out.
This is something I totally disagree with. I mean IF in a REAL COMPANY that guy who forecast the demand totally screwed up and come up with a brilliant suggestion, "hey lets not keep any inventory, that will solve our problem..."
so wat kind of system u suggest? ready inventory? sounds like the system prior to bto....how to determine how much inventory to hold?
Maybe a tiered system would work.
Wait 2-3yrs for BTO - priced at 20% of resale
No wait required get from inventory - no 20% off resale, as need to compensate HDB for holding and financing cost. But buyer get brand new flat and no need to pay agent com.
Just a suggestion, any comments? :beats-me-man:
But still think BTO is better as it protects the 80% home owners..... and does not disadvantage new applicants as long as they can do some forward planning....
so wat kind of system u suggest? ready inventory? sounds like the system prior to bto....how to determine how much inventory to hold?
I think both last time and now not good.
The best way is to have a ready inventory of flats to be sold.
I mean all business must keep inventory right? Does not mean if you cannot 100% forecast demand, you keep 0 inventory and ask you customer to wait.
Last time, HDB seriously screwed up and have way too much inventory. So what did our million dollar minister come up with? 0 inventory. no work for them to do, Just ask everyone to wait AND subject the market to more volatility. With zero inventory, there is little they can do to cool a red hot market. Release land also must wait 3-4 years before anything comes out.
This is something I totally disagree with. I mean IF in a REAL COMPANY that guy who forecast the demand totally screwed up and come up with a brilliant suggestion, "hey lets not keep any inventory, that will solve our problem..."
Depends on industry , this product 1 unit is few hundred thousand leh. It's not just abt instant meeting your housing need. Politically it may screw themselves up if it causes 85% of pple to be in negative equity.
I m in for BTO. Can't wait then got to pay premium lor. Want cheap n fast n good? Do plan early lor
Surely there can be a way to closely monitor the market and tailor supply to demand. There will be some times where there is some excess inventory but they can then scale down supply when such situation occurs. There are presumably a lot of number crunchers working for gah-men that can help with this. They can set a target eg inventory must not exceed XXX number of flats and have this as their performance indicator.
Hmmm.... I wonder if there will be massive oversupply of property in Singapore in the coming years? The developers are launching like there's no tomorrow at prices that aspire to reach new heights. How long can "ordinary" working Singaporeans continue to fork out money for these increasingly expensive units? At this rate we will have to extend our retirement ages to 70 haiz.
Regarding negative equity, I believe gah-men is seriously worried that Singaporeans might dip into negative equity esp those who hold multiple properties that they are not living in. That is why they reduce the quantum that banks can lend down to 60%. Helps to protect the banks and the investor from falling prices and makes the investor think twice (or more) before launching into an investment that typically these days is likely to cost more than 1 mill per unit for a decent size (even in ulu locations).
Signs are that the ruling party is somewhat worried that the property issue can affect their results at the next GE. My HDB block in Bishan is suddenly polling for lift upgrading (after waiting long time since it was announced) and the officials are pushing hard to get it through (can see how hard they are working for it). ? another "sweetener" for the GE? Bishan is also announcing its 5 year masterplan next week. I thought it was "safe" GRC for the party but...maybe not as "safe" as before. Didn't remember such hectic activity in previous elections.
devilplate
30-03-11, 09:37
Surely there can be a way to closely monitor the market and tailor supply to demand. There will be some times where there is some excess inventory but they can then scale down supply when such situation occurs. There are presumably a lot of number crunchers working for gah-men that can help with this. They can set a target eg inventory must not exceed XXX number of flats and have this as their performance indicator.
Hmmm.... I wonder if there will be massive oversupply of property in Singapore in the coming years? The developers are launching like there's no tomorrow at prices that aspire to reach new heights. How long can "ordinary" working Singaporeans continue to fork out money for these increasingly expensive units? At this rate we will have to extend our retirement ages to 70 haiz.
i tink oversupply is getting there....as we can see, new launches did not get sold out anymore including MM projects
Those companies that bid high prices for GL recently (eg Capitaland) sure have DEEP DEEP pockets to protect the prices of their existing inventory. How long can they continue to do so?
For those who bought in recent launches for investment...I wonder where are the tenants going to come from who can afford to pay enough $$$ to help them with their housing loan installments. I can't figure that the cash flow for servicing the loans can be that good. And if there are no tenants....that's when the crunch will come. A lot of units will TOP around the same time in the next few years. Expatriates these days are often on local terms and they have to pay rent out of their own pockets.
fyi I saw ang-moh kids wearing uniform of one of the international schools walking in the void deck of my HDB block yesterday with their maid. Which shows that expatriates are now renting HDB apartments. Which shows their ability to afford private condos should be dropping even as we speak.
devilplate
30-03-11, 10:16
For those who bought in recent launches for investment...I wonder where are the tenants going to come from who can afford to pay enough $$$ to help them with their housing loan installments. I can't figure that the cash flow for servicing the loans can be that good. And if there are no tenants....that's when the crunch will come. A lot of units will TOP around the same time in the next few years. Expatriates these days are often on local terms and they have to pay rent out of their own pockets.
i shall use Mi Casa as an example...
currently, 12xxsqft, 3+study/4bedder can get about 960k-1mil...
let say u buy at 1mil and take up max 60% loanwith 25yrs tenor
600k loan @3% int rate: mthly installment =$2844
if u take up maybank 5yr fixed rate now at average 2% pa, mthly about $2544
i believe current market rental can fetch 3-3.5k....and if during downturn, probably 2-2.5k
so, 5yrs fixed rate during downturn shd be safe enuff?(top up about 500-1k a mth)
stalingrad
30-03-11, 10:17
Those companies that bid high prices for GL recently (eg Capitaland) sure have DEEP DEEP pockets to protect the prices of their existing inventory. How long can they continue to do so?
For those who bought in recent launches for investment...I wonder where are the tenants going to come from who can afford to pay enough $$$ to help them with their housing loan installments. I can't figure that the cash flow for servicing the loans can be that good. And if there are no tenants....that's when the crunch will come. A lot of units will TOP around the same time in the next few years. Expatriates these days are often on local terms and they have to pay rent out of their own pockets.
fyi I saw ang-moh kids wearing uniform of one of the international schools walking in the void deck of my HDB block yesterday with their maid. Which shows that expatriates are now renting HDB apartments. Which shows their ability to afford private condos should be dropping even as we speak.
haha, that is true.
Many years ago, good condos feature lots of ang-mohs but now bad condos in ulu locations feature lots of ang mohs. my condo in west coast is chuck full of ang mohs.
Many years ago, good condos features few PRC chinese. Now most CCR condos in D10 and D9 are owned by PRc chinese. They think my condo in west coast is not good enough for them. what a turn of fortune. Hope teddy doesn't mind more people peeing into the swimming pool and drains and air dry their laundry on the balcony in CCR properties.
i shall use Mi Casa as an example...
currently, 12xxsqft, 3+study/4bedder can get about 960k-1mil...
let say u buy at 1mil and take up max 60% loanwith 25yrs tenor
600k loan @3% int rate: mthly installment =$2844
if u take up maybank 5yr fixed rate now at average 2% pa, mthly about $2544
i believe current market rental can fetch 3-3.5k....and if during downturn, probably 2-2.5k
so, 5yrs fixed rate during downturn shd be safe enuff?(top up about 500-1k a mth)
hehe 400K cash downpayment is no prob to you but it might be for some others not so cash rich. Gah-men seems to have calculated correctly to impose the 60% limit on bank loans as it would allow decent cash flow at current interest rates. :cheers5: Cheers!
12xx sq ft for 3+1 or 4 bedder is quite small, condo unit sizes are shrinking visibly.
proud owner
30-03-11, 10:29
BTO is good. Order liao then build. Problem is never take order or take order long long time then another one.
should do something online ma. pple login register, once enough min orders put in, straight trigger developer start work.
how does BTO works ?
place order, put a deposits, 2yrs later take delivery ?
if mkt not hot after 2 yrs ...can still forgo deposit and give up HDB right ??
so whats so good about BTO ?
Maybe a tiered system would work.
Wait 2-3yrs for BTO - priced at 20% of resale
No wait required get from inventory - no 20% off resale, as need to compensate HDB for holding and financing cost. But buyer get brand new flat and no need to pay agent com.
Just a suggestion, any comments? :beats-me-man:
But still think BTO is better as it protects the 80% home owners..... and does not disadvantage new applicants as long as they can do some forward planning....
BTO is good for some group and as many would agree, no one system can satisfy every group of buyers. Well, I propose since there is a min. take up rate required before BTO is built, then let's propose to lower that take up rate to about 50% (not sure what is the current %). Casting the net so wide, we'll eventually have BTO projects that have excess vacant units after completion which can then cater to those who need to buy immediately then. In that sense, it satisfy more groups. Like what is mentioned, just price those vacant BTO units upon completion at slightly higher premiums.
Another note to make.... property market movement is always seasonal. Different system will appeal at different times. With the current mad rush to launch projects, whether BTO or private projects, BTO may not appeal anymore in future coz of oversupply again (back to 2001 to 2006 scenario). Then not enough take up rate so HDB don't build BTO so then must change system again. The cycle is viciously repetitive. What goes up must come down.... watch out ... :scared-2:
i shall use Mi Casa as an example...
currently, 12xxsqft, 3+study/4bedder can get about 960k-1mil...
let say u buy at 1mil and take up max 60% loanwith 25yrs tenor
600k loan @3% int rate: mthly installment =$2844
if u take up maybank 5yr fixed rate now at average 2% pa, mthly about $2544
i believe current market rental can fetch 3-3.5k....and if during downturn, probably 2-2.5k
so, 5yrs fixed rate during downturn shd be safe enuff?(top up about 500-1k a mth)
Sounds like a feasible option if you lock-in the fixed rate.
devilplate
30-03-11, 10:47
how does BTO works ?
place order, put a deposits, 2yrs later take delivery ?
if mkt not hot after 2 yrs ...can still forgo deposit and give up HDB right ??
so whats so good about BTO ?
gd point there, how much is the deposit? any1 noes? isit 10% or 20%?
so wat kind of system u suggest? ready inventory? sounds like the system prior to bto....how to determine how much inventory to hold?
This is what they have to fine tune. I know it is NOT an easy job but going to a zero inventory way is too extreme and just a way to shirk responsibility.
Look at poor MBT. everyday say got more supply coming up got more supply coming up. But what can he do? He has NO ready supply at all. ZERO. glitch.
All the adjustments in supply will come up 3-5 years later. When you have a feedback loop that is so slow, it will then to overshoot and undershoot because you compensate too hard and the effects come up 3-5 years later by which the demand could have changed drastically.
Frankly, I think the government is in position to hold on to excess stock for an extended period of time. I mean even FEO can hold on to its unsold units for years and I don't see why HDB cannot do that.
devilplate
30-03-11, 10:50
This is what they have to fine tune. I know it is NOT an easy job but going to a zero inventory way is too extreme and just a way to shirk responsibility.
Look at poor MBT. everyday say got more supply coming up got more supply coming up. But what can he do? He has NO ready supply at all. ZERO. glitch.
All the adjustments in supply will come up 3-5 years later. When you have a feedback loop that is so slow, it will then to overshoot and undershoot because you compensate too hard and the effects come up 3-5 years later by which the demand could have changed drastically.
Frankly, I think the government is in position to hold on to excess stock for an extended period of time. I mean even FEO can hold on to its unsold units for years and I don't see why HDB cannot do that.
i tink the difference is FEO can artificially hold up their prices during downturn....whereas HDB r obliged to adjust their ready flat prices acording to the resale px rite and thus further dampen the resale prices
demand can disappear overnite but supply of flats is fixed once is completed....cannot reduce overnite wor:2cents:
however, i feel govt abit too slow to react this round....they shd push out alot more BTO in 2009 and 2010:2cents:
Mi Casa is in CCK? The figures for cash flow look reasonable but I'm not convinced it's got much upside after yr 4/5 years is up and you wish to sell then. Is there going to be some exciting happenings in that location (so far away from town)?
This is what they have to fine tune. I know it is NOT an easy job but going to a zero inventory way is too extreme and just a way to shirk responsibility.
Look at poor MBT. everyday say got more supply coming up got more supply coming up. But what can he do? He has NO ready supply at all. ZERO. glitch.
All the adjustments in supply will come up 3-5 years later. When you have a feedback loop that is so slow, it will then to overshoot and undershoot because you compensate too hard and the effects come up 3-5 years later by which the demand could have changed drastically.
Frankly, I think the government is in position to hold on to excess stock for an extended period of time. I mean even FEO can hold on to its unsold units for years and I don't see why HDB cannot do that.
Most certainly HDB can hold on coz they did that in the first half of last decade and survived. They didn't close shop after that, did they? It is a matter of whether they are willing to sustain those extra expenses. Obviously from MBT, they are unwilling. He seem to say that they are trying to solve the problem of oversupply by totally not supplying till there is demand. This problem will return to haunt them again in the near future. They should start considering dispatching survey teams into the heartland estates to consolidate feedback on the future demands of Singaporeans to have a better and clearer understanding then launch supply today for tomorrow's demands. It is certainly not perfect but it will surely better than the current situation...
devilplate
30-03-11, 10:58
Mi Casa is in CCK? The figures for cash flow look reasonable but I'm not convinced it's got much upside after yr 4/5 years is up and you wish to sell then. Is there going to be some exciting happenings in that location (so far away from town)?
i just pluck mi casa as an example since regulator r looking at it...it doesnt constitute to a buy call:D
i tink the difference is FEO can artificially hold up their prices during downturn....whereas HDB r obliged to adjust their ready flat prices acording to the resale px rite and thus further dampen the resale prices
demand can disappear overnite but supply of flats is fixed once is completed....cannot reduce overnite wor:2cents:
however, i feel govt abit too slow to react this round....they shd push out alot more BTO in 2009 and 2010:2cents:
That's what I've been saying.... complaints started pouring in in 2009 over no immed supply but only late last year did MBT promise many launches... it took them 1 to 2 years to respond. And his promise of more launches stop in 2011. Nothing specific is mention (not that I can remember) for 2012 and beyond... Can't help to correlate with what is gonna happen in 2011 and that's all... hmmm... just my opinion... hahaha:doh:
Current system of BTO seems to be the root of many of our property woes today (unfortunately). Wannabe heartlanders can't get hold of the HDB property that they wish for and yet resale/private property prices are escalating further out of their reach. Seems to be a lose-lose currently. Perhaps that's why MBT seems to be "singing" his song more frequently and loudly these days. Except maybe it is too late as others before me have remarked. Sad for the young newly ROM couple who wish to set up home and have kids. Difficult to get on the property ladder. How to boost the falling birth rate? By the time they get their BTO, some valuable time to get babies have been wasted. :mad: :banghead:
i just pluck mi casa as an example since regulator r looking at it...it doesnt constitute to a buy call:D
Whoops pardon me. :doh: It is a relatively "remote" location to buy a rental unit for investment. I was just wondering since you make the figures look quite good when calculated. Thanks.
I did look at a show flat for a unit of such size in Sengkang a few weeks ago. It is seriously small (although the developer moved one entire wall of the show flat so that the small size was not so obvious. Not much room to swing a cat in the bedrooms. When I remarked this to the agent, she laughed and told me that all new units had this kind of size of bedroom nowadays. :sleep:
devilplate
30-03-11, 11:09
Whoops pardon me. :doh: It is a relatively "remote" location to buy a rental unit for investment. I was just wondering since you make the figures look quite good when calculated. Thanks.
er...i m not trying to make the figure look good....the rental is based on pptyguru asking px....eg: the warren 3bedder asking 3.5k nego....so i just put 3-3.5k...fair enuff rite?:D
Hmmm really can achieve? I should go to URA website and take a look. Agent asking price is not necessarily indicative of actual rental achieved. Or even if tenant can be found. Although we have much more info these days compared to previously but still not enough to make a good informed choice. And if miscalculated, it is a big investment (400K cash sunk in), therefore it would be a BIG mistake. It might not be so easy to dispose of such investment in the future. One example is Bishan 8. So well located and yet the price doesn't move well after so many years (my friend had a unit there and sold not so long ago after holding it for soooo long but didn't make much from it). Perhaps the 400K can generate a better return elsewhere.
i tink the difference is FEO can artificially hold up their prices during downturn....whereas HDB r obliged to adjust their ready flat prices acording to the resale px rite and thus further dampen the resale prices
demand can disappear overnite but supply of flats is fixed once is completed....cannot reduce overnite wor:2cents:
however, i feel govt abit too slow to react this round....they shd push out alot more BTO in 2009 and 2010:2cents:
HDB can just say they will not be selling those oversupply for 3 years.
The problem with zero inventory is that it is almost impossible to do anything if the market get hot suddenly. And you tend to over correct when you scramble to increase the supply which will not hit until 3-5 years later.
I know there can be a problem with holding too much inventory but going from too much inventory to ZERO inventory is too drastic and will cause more problems.
The solution is to fine tune the way they estimate demand, reduce their inventory, reduce their supply lead time.
Unfortunately our minister solution is zero inventory.
devilplate
30-03-11, 11:18
By the time they get their BTO, some valuable time to get babies have been wasted. :mad: :banghead:
this one i goto disagree....i dun tink couples wana hf babies right after marriage nowadays....however, goto stay with in-laws while waiting for BTO....i believe gers nowadays dunwan tat....haha....20yrs back vy different from now oredi....tats y more complaints....hahaha
now yng couples die die wana hf their own roof and privacy right after their marriage....thus resulting in complaints.....hehe
this one i goto disagree....i dun tink couples wana hf babies right after marriage nowadays....however, goto stay with in-laws while waiting for BTO....i believe gers nowadays dunwan tat....haha....20yrs back vy different from now oredi....tats y more complaints....hahaha
now yng couples die die wana hf their own roof and privacy right after their marriage....thus resulting in complaints.....hehe
Sigh so is our population doomed? Declining numbers of "native" Singaporeans and increasing numbers of immigrants. We are a dying race. Did we bring up our kids wrongly that they have such attitude? Expectations of the young generation are so different.
devilplate
30-03-11, 11:29
HDB can just say they will not be selling those oversupply for 3 years.
The problem with zero inventory is that it is almost impossible to do anything if the market get hot suddenly. And you tend to over correct when you scramble to increase the supply which will not hit until 3-5 years later.
I know there can be a problem with holding too much inventory but going from too much inventory to ZERO inventory is too drastic and will cause more problems.
The solution is to fine tune the way they estimate demand, reduce their inventory, reduce their supply lead time.
Unfortunately our minister solution is zero inventory.
i still support BTO system...but nid to fine tuned the system....increase BTO launches faster....increase AHG....i tink as time goes by, lead time can be reduced to 1.5-2yrs:2cents: :D
Btw, current bto system may create some leftover supply too as it just nid 75% to proceed with the construction
by holding on unsold inventory and makes them not avail for sale may create political issues ? wat u guys tink?
haha, that is true.
Many years ago, good condos feature lots of ang-mohs but now bad condos in ulu locations feature lots of ang mohs. my condo in west coast is chuck full of ang mohs.
Many years ago, good condos features few PRC chinese. Now most CCR condos in D10 and D9 are owned by PRc chinese. They think my condo in west coast is not good enough for them. what a turn of fortune. Hope teddy doesn't mind more people peeing into the swimming pool and drains and air dry their laundry on the balcony in CCR properties.
Now ang-mohs have spread to HDB.
Rich PRC Chinese don't buy property to stay in or even to rent out. They buy a few/many properties and just let them stay empty as they don't need the money from the rent. This is what was told to me by friends in the industry.
Regulators
30-03-11, 11:30
i am having second thoughts now
i just pluck mi casa as an example since regulator r looking at it...it doesnt constitute to a buy call:D
i still support BTO system...but nid to fine tuned the system....increase BTO launches faster....increase AHG....i tink as time goes by, lead time can be reduced to 1.5-2yrs:2cents: :D
Btw, current bto system may create some leftover supply too as it just nid 75% to proceed with the construction
by holding on unsold inventory and makes them not avail for sale may create political issues ? wat u guys tink?
I think zero inventory is not the "correct" solution. I agree that a flexible system with fine tuning should be the way to go. Unsold inventory should be made avail for sale.
i am having second thoughts now
Don't let me put you off completely. Look into Bishan 8 and why it's price don't move that well despite such a great location (fairly central in Singapore, directly opp MRT and shopping mall and opp Raffles Institution). If you find out why, pls let us know so we can learn some lessons. Thx.
devilplate
30-03-11, 11:47
Don't let me put you off completely. Look into Bishan 8 and why it's price don't move that well despite such a great location (fairly central in Singapore, directly opp MRT and shopping mall and opp Raffles Institution). If you find out why, pls let us know so we can learn some lessons. Thx.
to be fair: bishan 8 moves up from 2009 trough quite a fair bit oredi rite....2009 bottom px about 700-750psf...now got 2 units hit above 1kpsf
63 Bishan Street 21 #03-03
99 Yrs From 09/10/1996
$1072
980
$1050k
14 Mar 11
for a 15yo 99LH condo to hit 1.05mil 2bedder is quite remarkable.....3rd flr only somemore
i believe it may go up abit more when capland launch
i still support BTO system...but nid to fine tuned the system....increase BTO launches faster....increase AHG....i tink as time goes by, lead time can be reduced to 1.5-2yrs:2cents: :D
Btw, current bto system may create some leftover supply too as it just nid 75% to proceed with the construction
by holding on unsold inventory and makes them not avail for sale may create political issues ? wat u guys tink?
Reduce the take up percent to 50% and continue to sell during construction phase so chances of left over vacant units is higher which can then be sold to buyers once project is completed. So solve problem of over and under supply. Win win situation... though not a perfect solution... it might not exist. :D
how does BTO works ?
place order, put a deposits, 2yrs later take delivery ?
if mkt not hot after 2 yrs ...can still forgo deposit and give up HDB right ??
so whats so good about BTO ?
That's true, only lose 1 chance and ard 5% + stamp only. But pple buy hdb to stay, not speculate. If all proj are BTO n pple can only consume what they need, y will there be a situation where mkt is not "hot". Market no good stay in park? Only when there are hugh supply siting ard waiting for pple to buy will there be situations where pple change their plan because they feel market price will drop substantially.
This protects the value of HDB over long term, not subjecting it to big fluations in business cycles. I support active BTO, at reasonable discount from resale or high price with substantial discount for first time buyers.
proud owner
30-03-11, 12:04
I think zero inventory is not the "correct" solution. I agree that a flexible system with fine tuning should be the way to go. Unsold inventory should be made avail for sale.
totally agree
when there is no threat or war... can dissolve SAF ???
when theres recession, cut ministers pay ？？
no right ?
so why cant have empty unsold HDBs ??
MBT just want to ALWAYS show profit lah ..
proud owner
30-03-11, 12:08
That's true, only lose 1 chance and ard 5% + stamp only. But pple buy hdb to stay, not speculate. If all proj are BTO n pple can only consume what they need, y will there be a situation where mkt is not "hot". Market no good stay in park? Only when there are hugh supply siting ard waiting for pple to buy will there be situations where pple change their plan because they feel market price will drop substantially.
This protects the value of HDB over long term, not subjecting it to big fluations in business cycles. I support active BTO, at reasonable discount from resale or high price with substantial discount for first time buyers.
in 2yrs time .. if prices stagnate .. chances are private will also stagnate or dip ..
u think those who OTB ( order to build) will take delivery ? i think they will forgo HDB and buy private
devilplate
30-03-11, 12:15
totally agree
when there is no threat or war... can dissolve SAF ???
when theres recession, cut ministers pay ？？
no right ?
so why cant have empty unsold HDBs ??
MBT just want to ALWAYS show profit lah ..
minister did suffer pay cut in 2008
http://www.salary.sg/2008/civil-service-bonus-2008-and-pay-cut-for-ministers/
however, now their pay higher den b4 the pay cut in 2008...haha...ops:hell-hath-no-fury:
proud owner
30-03-11, 12:22
minister did suffer pay cut in 2008
http://www.salary.sg/2008/civil-service-bonus-2008-and-pay-cut-for-ministers/
however, now their pay higher den b4 the pay cut in 2008...haha...ops:hell-hath-no-fury:
average out still up right ??
to be fair: bishan 8 moves up from 2009 trough quite a fair bit oredi rite....2009 bottom px about 700-750psf...now got 2 units hit above 1kpsf
63 Bishan Street 21 #03-03
99 Yrs From 09/10/1996
$1072
980
$1050k
14 Mar 11
for a 15yo 99LH condo to hit 1.05mil 2bedder is quite remarkable.....3rd flr only somemore
i believe it may go up abit more when capland launch
hehe I think my friend bought at the initial launch. Prolly the prices v. high at the time (before they dropped).
Hmmm maybe Bishan 8 might be a better buy than Mi Casa? As you mentioned there is the Capland launch to look forward to. And location-wise Bishan tops CCK I should imagine. Need to consider the condition of the units being offered for sale though. Another LH condo with good location is Tanglin Regency. It has Tanglin Road address (district 10) and is right next to newly revamped Alexandra Park Connector with wetlands features. Makes for wonderful jogging or cycling along the waterside. Both of these available for renting out straight away. I am not sure what rent Bishan 8 can command but 980 sq ft 2 bedder in Tanglin Regency for ard 1.05 mill can command around 3.5K currently. Just offering some alternatives to Mi Casa that's all my 2 :2cents:
in 2yrs time .. if prices stagnate .. chances are private will also stagnate or dip ..
u think those who OTB ( order to build) will take delivery ? i think they will forgo HDB and buy private
I m assuming a BTO avg price 400k for 1000 sqft n 800k for private. If price coverage 30% I agree with u pple will do that . If BTO is selling at discount from resale already the choice is pretty clear isn't it. Last 10 year many down points, did we see a 20-30% dip in hdb prices? BTO tied to demand based housing need will ensure we don't experience Hugh huge flucations in basic public housing.
i still support BTO system...but nid to fine tuned the system....increase BTO launches faster....increase AHG....i tink as time goes by, lead time can be reduced to 1.5-2yrs:2cents: :D
Btw, current bto system may create some leftover supply too as it just nid 75% to proceed with the construction
by holding on unsold inventory and makes them not avail for sale may create political issues ? wat u guys tink?
I agree with you on BTO system. It is better than HDB prediction, which generated a lot of empty flats and blocks in Jurong West and other new towns.
However, It is neccessary to allow some HDB leftover supply as a reservior (eg. 1-5% of total HDB units) to dampen the HDB price up and down dramatically. Meanwhile, It is good for the first buyers, who just get married. They can get a roof for their family immediately from market of either new flat or resale.
Fine tuning of BTO system is a must according to current supply depletion. Some of modifications have been implemented, such as shortening the development cycle, improvement of the drawing rules.
I think one of the important parameters need change. It is the 75% for construction. It may be reduced to 50% or lower.
hehe I think my friend bought at the initial launch. Prolly the prices v. high at the time (before they dropped).
Hmmm maybe Bishan 8 might be a better buy than Mi Casa? As you mentioned there is the Capland launch to look forward to. And location-wise Bishan tops CCK I should imagine. Need to consider the condition of the units being offered for sale though. Another LH condo with good location is Tanglin Regency. It has Tanglin Road address (district 10) and is right next to newly revamped Alexandra Park Connector with wetlands features. Makes for wonderful jogging or cycling along the waterside. Both of these available for renting out straight away. I am not sure what rent Bishan 8 can command but 980 sq ft 2 bedder in Tanglin Regency for ard 1.05 mill can command around 3.5K currently. Just offering some alternatives to Mi Casa that's all my 2 :2cents:
am pretty sure , ppl at bishan are w/drawing their unit for sale and wait for capland launch as well to gauge their prices.
Regulators
30-03-11, 16:22
Bishan 8 is not exactly cheap at current prices. m casa is about 300 psf cheaper than b8 and will be 13 year age gap apart when mc tops. Both are near mrt and mall. Only problem now for mi casa is the difficulty in finding a good facing unit. Those facing the pool are asking for high premium. Don't mean to be a low baller, but I will only buy good facing units at the best possible price, not any lousy facing units thrown to the public at seemingly a discount.
am pretty sure , ppl at bishan are w/drawing their unit for sale and wait for capland launch as well to gauge their prices.
Bishan 8 is not exactly cheap at current prices. m casa is about 300 psf cheaper than b8 and will be 13 year age gap apart when mc tops. Both are near mrt and mall. Only problem now for mi casa is the difficulty in finding a good facing unit. Those facing the pool are asking for high premium. Don't mean to be a low baller, but I will only buy good facing units at the best possible price, not any lousy facing units thrown to the public at seemingly a discount.
Yep best facing units always disappear v. fast in the launches. I remember when I went to snoop around the show flat of H2O residences in Sengkang and the units with the reservoir facing views were all sold out. You might get lucky if you leave yr name with the agents and somebody backs out of the sale who had a pool facing unit.
just a general comment of BTO and "0 reserve" etc.
not many years ago, when HDB had a huge list of empty flats, ppl *were* complaining abt *waste of resources*, and slapped HDB left and right.
today HDB got slapped again for having no reserve and everything BTO.
It's not easy to be politically correct and economically correct at the same time.
Yep best facing units always disappear v. fast in the launches. I remember when I went to snoop around the show flat of H2O residences in Sengkang and the units with the reservoir facing views were all sold out. You might get lucky if you leave yr name with the agents and somebody backs out of the sale who had a pool facing unit.
there are only a handful of premium units in a development. Depend on individual la, some ppl may not be too choosy. Good location, decent layout also ok to many ppl...
like The Sail, premium unit price high high, do they command higher rental ? i don't think so...
Regulators
30-03-11, 19:48
I am usually apprehensive to get a borderline cheap unit with lousy facing. These days when people buy houses, the basic rules of buying a livable home (eg no mrt track in front, no noisy road in front, no west sun etc) seem to have gone out of the window. Buyers these days are so kiasu that in order not to miss the boat, any leftover units will do.
there are only a handful of premium units in a development. Depend on individual la, some ppl may not be too choosy. Good location, decent layout also ok to many ppl...
like The Sail, premium unit price high high, do they command higher rental ? i don't think so...
there are only a handful of premium units in a development. Depend on individual la, some ppl may not be too choosy. Good location, decent layout also ok to many ppl...
like The Sail, premium unit price high high, do they command higher rental ? i don't think so...
In my experience the premium price for premium unit doesn't necessarily translate into premium rental. That's provided your non-premium unit is not at a great disadvantage eg facing the main road etc.
I am usually apprehensive to get a borderline cheap unit with lousy facing. These days when people buy houses, the basic rules of buying a livable home (eg no mrt track in front, no noisy road in front, no west sun etc) seem to have gone out of the window. Buyers these days are so kiasu that in order not to miss the boat, any leftover units will do.
what i am comparing is between non-premium and premium units. Not those units that are adverse to feng shui principles like ur eg. Also include those units with 4 in it, nowadays, developer no longer give special discount to it btw.
perhaps a good comparison, The sail (marina facing vs facing lou pa sar) for eg. I would pay for a non marina facing if i can save 300 - 400 psf in price difference then not investing into a winning property rather than missing the boat altogether bacoz it's THE SAIL,,,wor....anyone concur ?
Hmmm...I am not sure about missing the boat. it doesn't seem that prices are going to accelerate upwards any time soon. In fact, more likely to dip. The risks are greater now in entering the market compared to before. Can consider hanging on to yr hard-earned $$$ until you find a "good" unit rather than the left-overs. Also can hunt around for resale bargains from those owners who had to liquidate due to personal reasons. Sometimes you can find good buys from the resale markets (location, facing, etc). And the amount to spend on renovation is not as bad as what you might think.
Hmmm...I am not sure about missing the boat. it doesn't seem that prices are going to accelerate upwards any time soon. In fact, more likely to dip. The risks are greater now in entering the market compared to before. Can consider hanging on to yr hard-earned $$$ until you find a "good" unit rather than the left-overs. Also can hunt around for resale bargains from those owners who had to liquidate due to personal reasons. Sometimes you can find good buys from the resale markets (location, facing, etc). And the amount to spend on renovation is not as bad as what you might think.
Missing the boat is too strong a phrase... although I doubt prices will rocket upwards, I don't think it'll plummet downwards either. It is more like stabalizing. The big developers are actually calling the shots. They priced their new launches super high so a typical seller of a nearby condo would naturally not want to sell at super low. Sure will sell if prices is super low but the seller will consider the huge losses he/she incurred compared to a higher price. Unless fire sale, such a scenario will not happen judging from the strong demands still at these new launches. It's amazing how singaporeans flock to these launches...
If for home stay, think can just buy now coz in long run, prices will surely still climb though slowly. If for long term investment, then plan wisely. Can buy if price is right and holding power is present. SSD killed any short term investment for now.
Some people think prices will fall after election. Others think they will climb. Appreciate any theories to back these thinkings?
eh...tot we were debating bout good facing vs not so good facing units....
now all diverted to when to buy....
what's the thing abt facing swimming pool? got bikini clad babes like how the developers often advertise on tv?
from experience, pool facing means screaming kids at the pool, esp weekends..
i chose a unit that doesn't face pool.. :)
what's the thing abt facing swimming pool? got bikini clad babes like how the developers often advertise on tv?
from experience, pool facing means screaming kids at the pool, esp weekends..
i chose a unit that doesn't face pool.. :)
I agree. The shrill voices of screaming kids is not that appealing to me either. I suppose it depends on what is the other facing. If it's a noisy road or looking at HDB flats then maybe the pool view is to be preferred.
what's the thing abt facing swimming pool? got bikini clad babes like how the developers often advertise on tv?
from experience, pool facing means screaming kids at the pool, esp weekends..
i chose a unit that doesn't face pool.. :)
May not be the case for small projects with only 20 to 30 units. Especially true for big projects with 500 units like in ECs and other big condos. All the best to Minton residents who bought pool facing units at lower than #06.
May not be the case for small projects with only 20 to 30 units. Especially true for big projects with 500 units like in ECs and other big condos. All the best to Minton residents who bought pool facing units at lower than #06.
Purely on facing alone, I think Minton is not bad. Most units face either the pool, the landscaped garden or landed housing. The ones that face the road are not too bad either as Lorong Ah Soo is not a very busy road. No units face the west sun directly. The architects did a great job, maybe becos the land size and orientation provide some flexibility in design.
On the other hand, it is very difficult to find a good facing unit at Kovan Residences. Either you face the west sun, busy Upp. Serangoon Road or your neighbours (which is a stone's throw from your balcony). But, the location makes up for it.
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