View Full Version : Calculations on New Cooling Measures: To buy or not to buy
I am a newbie to property investment and have been looking to buy a property for the past few years but with the climbing prices and the frequent government measures, I have not purchase any property yet.
After reading about the new government measures, I went to do up an excel sheet to see whether I should buy or wait. I have came to a conclusion but as I am a newbie, I will like to seek expert opinion on whether I am right.
As it consist of tables, I am not sure how to post the info here. I have attached a link for you to view my analysis. Pls comment. I welcome all kinds of feedback as I hope to learn from all the experts here.
Thanks!
http://survivesg.blogspot.com
kingkong1984
16-01-11, 17:17
Don't have to waste time calculating. Now it's not the time to buy unless it's firesales. Anyway to buy or not to buy depends on individuals financial position. Sentosa cove 36 million drop to 3.6 million is still out of reach for most hdb folks. U need to spend time calculating on that meh?
Don't have to waste time calculating. Now it's not the time to buy unless it's firesales. Anyway to buy or not to buy depends on individuals financial position. Sentosa cove 36 million drop to 3.6 million is still out of reach for most hdb folks. U need to spend time calculating on that meh?
:) There are other property within my reach. I am a person who needs to be convinced by figures, so that I will not do something stupid. That was the purpose of the blog, to remind myself of my thoughts.
Anyway my next step is to calculate how much the price must fall before it is worthwhile to buy a property. However, was hoping for some feedback on my calculations and assumptions as I am really new to this. The reason I am looking now is because the measures opens up new opportunity. I do not want to be caught waiting and not taking actions again when the price drops sufficiently.
it will be difficult to buy as seller will withdraw their condo frm the market.
unless u buy frm developer.
gahmen wan to see low transaction vol. Must plzz
There will now be a buyer-seller impasse. Stable property prices and near 0 growth (what government wants). The only way to resolve this would be:
a) External factors influencing the economy
b) Rise in interest rates such that mortgage payment exceeds rental
Else, no one will budge...
it will be difficult to buy as seller will withdraw their condo frm the market.
unless u buy frm developer.
gahmen wan to see low transaction vol. Must plzz
Low transaction is good as it will lead to lower prices. It happens in the stock market and it also happened after the 97 peak. As I only have a HDB, the measures are godsend.
There will now be a buyer-seller impasse. Stable property prices and near 0 growth (what government wants). The only way to resolve this would be:
a) External factors influencing the economy
b) Rise in interest rates such that mortgage payment exceeds rental
Else, no one will budge...
I believe that rates will go up and there are many in the market who has over strectched. Prices will fall.
I have seen many people argue that government does not want prices to fall. I disagree. Government wanted to stabiles the price since the 1st measure. How much has prices increased since then? This meant be an indication of how much government is willing to let the price slide.
Wild Falcon
16-01-11, 18:24
If prices fall, buy. MBT already hinted this set of measures "not permanent".
rattydrama
16-01-11, 18:49
4th cooling measures. Good time to buy. But
1. Buy within your means and make sure you can hold long. Make sure if another cooling measure comes, you can still hold on.
2. If there is a firesale - buy.
3. Make sure that the rental income is sufficient enough for u to tide over if you cannot sell.
4. Right now must buy with your brain and not heart.
5. Consider resale instead of new.
6. Go for as many viewings as possible.
expect that it might drop 10% within the next 6 months. If that doent happens, review again.
I believe that rates will go up and there are many in the market who has over strectched. Prices will fall.
I have seen many people argue that government does not want prices to fall. I disagree. Government wanted to stabiles the price since the 1st measure. How much has prices increased since then? This meant be an indication of how much government is willing to let the price slide.
"Stabilise" is not equal to "let the price slide"
If prices fall, buy. MBT already hinted this set of measures "not permanent".
Agree. Nothing is permanent, even if they say it is. However, normally the market will over or under correct. Even if policies change, the market will take time to react, especially if the market has been falling and falling. People will wait to see whether the price will drop further.
This is observed in every policy.
"Stabilise" is not equal to "let the price slide"
Nope. But since when has government told us everything. When he say stablilise, he meant not mean it in exactly this context. Then again, he might be. I might be wrong on this but rem that government only sets policies. How the market reacts might be totally different.
Based on my latest calculations. You will need to expect at least 15.5% upside to just break-even. Not sure about you but this kind of upside to me is unreachable now. Not when the government promise further measures.
When something looks undesirable, the price is set to slide
4th cooling measures. Good time to buy. But
1. Buy within your means and make sure you can hold long. Make sure if another cooling measure comes, you can still hold on.
2. If there is a firesale - buy.
3. Make sure that the rental income is sufficient enough for u to tide over if you cannot sell.
4. Right now must buy with your brain and not heart.
5. Consider resale instead of new.
6. Go for as many viewings as possible.
expect that it might drop 10% within the next 6 months. If that doent happens, review again.
Thanks for the excellent advice. Do you mind if I quote you in one of my post in my blog? I am keeping the blog to remind myself to stay sane and this includes sourcing for advices like this.
Problem with rental is that whether it is sufficient depends on rates. I am expecting rates to go up to 3-4%. It was not too long ago that it was at this rate.
If interest rates goes up, prices will slide further and the fire sales you talk about will really start. Imagine someone paying $2.9k being asked to pay $4.3k. That's $1.4k more. Not alot, but alot if the person has stretched it!
If the government wanted prices to slide, they would have killed off foreign buyers/investors, first time buyers or genuine upgraders with the latest cooling measures. But they didn't...and these are exactly the groups that are most impt to threatening the political status quo - by either screwing up economy or by voting against the govt respectively.
We've been through multiple cooling measures over the last 24 months, the trend has always been, launch cooling measure, wait and see for one quarter and then prices creep upwards. There is simply too much liquidity pouring in and the economy is still powering ahead.
But the bottomline for your latest blog post is correct - after 14 Jan, property no longer offers that kind of leverage anymore (unless you get a fire sale). Flippers are now extinct.
Low transaction is good as it will lead to lower prices. It happens in the stock market and it also happened after the 97 peak. As I only have a HDB, the measures are godsend.
how to equate low transaction to lower price ? ahahaha
I believe that rates will go up and there are many in the market who has over strectched. Prices will fall.
I have seen many people argue that government does not want prices to fall. I disagree. Government wanted to stabiles the price since the 1st measure. How much has prices increased since then? This meant be an indication of how much government is willing to let the price slide.
u already know the answer ~ :o
how to equate low transaction to lower price ? ahahaha
Low transaction for short duration may not result in dips. Depends on who blinks first. However, low volume for long periods tends to slide prices. You can see this in all kinds of investment.
As I stated in another post, the low volume caused my mum's HDB to drop by around 40%. I know this is very true as I managed to buy mine for just 200k (160k after grant), a super steal. Now it is selling close to 500k.
If you still don't get it. Let's looks at how investors think. Investors invest in what can give them the best returns. If property no longer give that kind of leverage or returns, they will move on to other investment tool. Even in a particular kind of investment, investors invest by sectors. They will whack one sector, bring up the volume. When the price is right, they will dump everything and move on to the next sector. This original sector is no longer attractive, volume thins, and price slides.
You can see this everywhere in every investment tool.
If the government wanted prices to slide, they would have killed off foreign buyers/investors, first time buyers or genuine upgraders with the latest cooling measures. But they didn't...and these are exactly the groups that are most impt to threatening the political status quo - by either screwing up economy or by voting against the govt respectively.
We've been through multiple cooling measures over the last 24 months, the trend has always been, launch cooling measure, wait and see for one quarter and then prices creep upwards. There is simply too much liquidity pouring in and the economy is still powering ahead.
But the bottomline for your latest blog post is correct - after 14 Jan, property no longer offers that kind of leverage anymore (unless you get a fire sale). Flippers are now extinct.
By setting our measure harsher than HK, it is sending out a very strong message. If you are an international investor and considering between HK and Singapore, which will you choose now? I would choose HK for various reasons. Money will flow out. When property doesn't provide the leverage which it should. Why should investors choose it over other forms of investments?
This is my view but I may be wrong as I have only been following property news in recent years. Which is why I went to do the calculations. Numbers don't lie and as long as the measures exist, Singapore property is no longer attractive. How to remain attractive when you need a 15.5% upside to break even and with looming interest rates hikes.
I am with the government this time round. As it will help save lives. The fact is if the bubble is allowed to burst, we will see a repeat of 97. Not something nice to go thru.
kingkong1984
16-01-11, 20:44
Sorry can clarify your figures?
$1 million, add in Stamp Duties of $24,600. Plus $500 mortgage fees and assume $3k legal fees. It would be $1 million + 28,100. Interest at 1% per annum would be 8k (assuming flat rate). Disregarding commission. The total cost would be $1,036,100.
If he sells after 1 year, it would be 12% SSD so you have to sell at $1,155,032 to break even. Disregarding commission. The net proceeds to break even should be $155,032 and not $154,600. Anyway u need to add commissions and legal fees so you probably have to buffer another 1% to 2%. Anyway the figures are close enough.
On your "Anyway, I invest in stock market and whenever the volume slides, the price will slide too." These two goes hand in hand. Price slide because no one is buying. Volume small is because some will nevertheless go against the tide and keep them. It can also be the other way round. People offer low prices. Only some will sell and not many would sell. If you are expecting 40% drop, You can wait very long. You might find a few in between deals or even hit them but it is very unlikely.
You have the same conclusion. No point to buy to sell. Buy to keep is ok. Price will definitely drop for a short while, thereafter, it will bounce back up to pre measure prices and be stable there. (once all the speculators who have to make their exit are gone)
My :2cents: :2cents: :2cents:
proud owner
16-01-11, 20:50
By setting our measure harsher than HK, it is sending out a very strong message. If you are an international investor and considering between HK and Singapore, which will you choose now? I would choose HK for various reasons. Money will flow out. When property doesn't provide the leverage which it should. Why should investors choose it over other forms of investments?
This is my view but I may be wrong as I have only been following property news in recent years. Which is why I went to do the calculations. Numbers don't lie and as long as the measures exist, Singapore property is no longer attractive. How to remain attractive when you need a 15.5% upside to break even and with looming interest rates hikes.
I am with the government this time round. As it will help save lives. The fact is if the bubble is allowed to burst, we will see a repeat of 97. Not something nice to go thru.
our govt have managed to get rid of most of the lousy location land in the past 2 years ,,,and were at good price ...
they have also collected enuff stamp duties from 2006 to 2010 ...
imagine..3 pct for every single purchase ... !!!!!!
enuff to pay all the ministers bonuses ...
so maybe they paisei ... so came out with harsh measure ..to bring prices down ...
after that ...lift the measures .... and play the game all over again
solid right ? Uniquely singapore
Low transaction for short duration may not result in dips. Depends on who blinks first. However, low volume for long periods tends to slide prices. You can see this in all kinds of investment.
As I stated in another post, the low volume caused my mum's HDB to drop by around 40%. I know this is very true as I managed to buy mine for just 200k (160k after grant), a super steal. Now it is selling close to 500k.
If you still don't get it. Let's looks at how investors think. Investors invest in what can give them the best returns. If property no longer give that kind of leverage or returns, they will move on to other investment tool. Even in a particular kind of investment, investors invest by sectors. They will whack one sector, bring up the volume. When the price is right, they will dump everything and move on to the next sector. This original sector is no longer attractive, volume thins, and price slides.
You can see this everywhere in every investment tool.
there are many ways to play prop, u are still getting rental during no transaction period. up to you to decide..
and this is how real investor play property.
hiro76, your analysis is very sound I think. I too feel there is only one direction which is downwards.
When my husband and I bought our house in Jan 2009 we felt prices were reasonably low enough. But over 2009 and 2010 we felt the prices were unreasonably getting inflated and being humans (greedy!) we regretted not buying an investment condo in 2009 itself. I think the time is coming for us to act in a few months. I feel there will be desperate sellers looking for buyers in a low demand situation. Once speculators are removed genuine buyers are fewer.
But the key is finding the right condo. I think if we look for new condos in city areas or penthouses which were typically bought by speculators with deferred scheme, they may have to sell in urgency otherwise they have to come up with the payment. This situation may cause fire sales because there is urgency for them to sell but the speculator market is gone, and there are too few genuine homeowners looking for these types of "investment condos". On the other hand, the mass market condos etc may hold fairly well with slight drop because they never catered to the investor/speculator crowd.
Hence my husband and I are on the lookout for this specific type of "rental/speculator" driven newly TOP-ed condos for investment.
But if you want to look for a home, I think just wait for now :-)
Good luck!
speaking of selling land. I'd be interested how's the response for the land auction on the plot next to Bishan MRT right after these measures are announced.
No lah, they still have a lot of lousy land around, so must shift focus to these places and put a grand plan of restoration/rejuvenation/new CBD (/whatever names) etc in order to sell at good prices mah. Last time got Punggol, then Marina Bay, then Tanjong Pagar, then Jurong Lake District, then Payar Lebar, then Hougang, then East Coast, then what? Puala Ubin, Puala Tekong, Simpang, Woodlands??? :p
our govt have managed to get rid of most of the lousy location land in the past 2 years ,,,and were at good price ...
they have also collected enuff stamp duties from 2006 to 2010 ...
imagine..3 pct for every single purchase ... !!!!!!
enuff to pay all the ministers bonuses ...
so maybe they paisei ... so came out with harsh measure ..to bring prices down ...
after that ...lift the measures .... and play the game all over again
solid right ? Uniquely singapore
No lah, they still have a lot of lousy land around, so must shift focus to these places and put a grand plan of restoration/rejuvenation/new CBD (/whatever names) etc in order to sell at good prices mah. Last time got Punggol, then Marina Bay, then Tanjong Pagar, then Jurong Lake District, then Payar Lebar, then Hougang, then East Coast, then what? Puala Ubin, Puala Tekong, Simpang, Woodlands??? :p
measure 5 is coming, so many wanting to buy
Sorry can clarify your figures?
$1 million, add in Stamp Duties of $24,600. Plus $500 mortgage fees and assume $3k legal fees. It would be $1 million + 28,100. Interest at 1% per annum would be 8k (assuming flat rate). Disregarding commission. The total cost would be $1,036,100.
If he sells after 1 year, it would be 12% SSD so you have to sell at $1,155,032 to break even. Disregarding commission. The net proceeds to break even should be $155,032 and not $154,600. Anyway u need to add commissions and legal fees so you probably have to buffer another 1% to 2%. Anyway the figures are close enough.
On your "Anyway, I invest in stock market and whenever the volume slides, the price will slide too." These two goes hand in hand. Price slide because no one is buying. Volume small is because some will nevertheless go against the tide and keep them. It can also be the other way round. People offer low prices. Only some will sell and not many would sell. If you are expecting 40% drop, You can wait very long. You might find a few in between deals or even hit them but it is very unlikely.
You have the same conclusion. No point to buy to sell. Buy to keep is ok. Price will definitely drop for a short while, thereafter, it will bounce back up to pre measure prices and be stable there. (once all the speculators who have to make their exit are gone)
My :2cents: :2cents: :2cents:
Fully agree with what you said.
Thanks for highlighting that I left out mortgage fees, legal fees and commission. Have not bought any property since my HDB 8 years ago. Will revise my excel when I have time. The excel was based on selling in year 1. I initially used one month but not very fair as rental exceeds monthly payment. Hence decided to use 1 year rental and interest but consider as selling in year 1. I am not a flipper but I want to see to what level of profit is required to keep flippers in the market.
As for low volume and price increases, agree but it's in the minority. The norm is when price increase, vol increase, price increase further, in this cycle. When price dips due to bad news, vol thins, price drops further. If not how to buy DBS at $8plus. Lol
Using 40% as example only. I do not expect the government to allow price to slip so much. At a drop of estimated 20% (to be verified when I have the time), I expect the flippers to be back. Hence, if there are no adverse news and no rates hikes, I expect the price to drop no more than 20%. But if rates raise to 6-8%, anything is possible. The rates hike can cause a number of people to commit suicide. But I guess this time it may not. Why? Cuz the government has cap LTV to 60%. Even if price drops, banks will not have to ask for top up. With the property as mortgage, the banks may be more willing to allow for longer and lesser repayment.
This is why I think the government is doing the right thing. It needs to protect the many ignorant investors from rates hikes and exodus of foreign funds.
round 5 of measures if it's required will likely be 50% LTV. right now, HK is already on 50% LTV for HKD12mio (SGD2mio) properties. akan datang...
round 5 of measures if it's required will likely be 50% LTV. right now, HK is already on 50% LTV for HKD12mio (SGD2mio) properties. akan datang...
yes pls let it happen,preferable even for 1st property at 50% LTV.
yes pls let it happen,preferable even for 1st property at 50% LTV.
cannot, that would be too unpopular. how will young married be able to come up with 50% downpayment even if they use their CPF? EC showroom can close down if that happens.
kingkong1984
16-01-11, 21:20
round 5 of measures if it's required will likely be 50% LTV. right now, HK is already on 50% LTV for HKD12mio (SGD2mio) properties. akan datang...
Maybe lor... if developer keep pushing up the prices. Offer to absorb the SSD. Like that no as effective liao. Dun worry, the most the govt can ask is for 100% paid up upon purchase. Hahahaha.
To move from 20% to 40% means that what you use to be able to put down for 2 units (same price) is only enough for 1 unit. Assuming all things equal. Volume should drop 50% and price remain the same. But it's not that simpe, so we have to use the word 'monitor'.
Low transaction for short duration may not result in dips. Depends on who blinks first. However, low volume for long periods tends to slide prices. You can see this in all kinds of investment.
As I stated in another post, the low volume caused my mum's HDB to drop by around 40%. I know this is very true as I managed to buy mine for just 200k (160k after grant), a super steal. Now it is selling close to 500k.
If you still don't get it. Let's looks at how investors think. Investors invest in what can give them the best returns. If property no longer give that kind of leverage or returns, they will move on to other investment tool. Even in a particular kind of investment, investors invest by sectors. They will whack one sector, bring up the volume. When the price is right, they will dump everything and move on to the next sector. This original sector is no longer attractive, volume thins, and price slides.
You can see this everywhere in every investment tool.
of cos,who stay vested in smthing which is not attractive.
earlier yrs, 2003-2005 unit trust funds are hot isnt it..
but look at it now, itzi as hot as before..??
no,cos the volume is thin and not attractive as before
if they do a 50% downpayment for SGD2mio property, that would cover quite a lot of the city fringe properties.
hiro76, your analysis is very sound I think. I too feel there is only one direction which is downwards.
When my husband and I bought our house in Jan 2009 we felt prices were reasonably low enough. But over 2009 and 2010 we felt the prices were unreasonably getting inflated and being humans (greedy!) we regretted not buying an investment condo in 2009 itself. I think the time is coming for us to act in a few months. I feel there will be desperate sellers looking for buyers in a low demand situation. Once speculators are removed genuine buyers are fewer.
But the key is finding the right condo. I think if we look for new condos in city areas or penthouses which were typically bought by speculators with deferred scheme, they may have to sell in urgency otherwise they have to come up with the payment. This situation may cause fire sales because there is urgency for them to sell but the speculator market is gone, and there are too few genuine homeowners looking for these types of "investment condos". On the other hand, the mass market condos etc may hold fairly well with slight drop because they never catered to the investor/speculator crowd.
Hence my husband and I are on the lookout for this specific type of "rental/speculator" driven newly TOP-ed condos for investment.
But if you want to look for a home, I think just wait for now :-)
Good luck!
Thanks for sharing. Agree with your perspective too except that I believe all will be affected. Just a matter of how much. There are speculators in all sectors. Not sure if u are referring to Mickey mouse condos, but I will not buy any even if price falls by 40%. Think they are super inflated.
I like to remind myself with Japan. They have never recovered from they peak. Even now, they are way off the peak. My income is just around 120k pa so I cannot afford to make too many mistakes unlike many rich brothers and sisters here.
:) There are other property within my reach. I am a person who needs to be convinced by figures, so that I will not do something stupid. That was the purpose of the blog, to remind myself of my thoughts.
Anyway my next step is to calculate how much the price must fall before it is worthwhile to buy a property. However, was hoping for some feedback on my calculations and assumptions as I am really new to this. The reason I am looking now is because the measures opens up new opportunity. I do not want to be caught waiting and not taking actions again when the price drops sufficiently.
Investments don't need science.
You need balls.:)
Wild Falcon
16-01-11, 22:04
Won't happen lah - round 4 very jialat already. Even if it happens, it will be only for property above a certain quantum.
yes pls let it happen,preferable even for 1st property at 50% LTV.
devilplate
16-01-11, 22:14
Investments don't need science.
You need balls.:)
yeah...use past trends as a guide nia...ultimately 'steel balls' and 'feeling':D
calculate so much....dare not hoot aso useless...NATO....later:banghead: and become sore losers:p
Won't happen lah - round 4 very jialat already. Even if it happens, it will be only for property above a certain quantum.
that quantum will likely be 2mio.
devilplate
16-01-11, 22:36
that quantum will likely be 2mio.
better be higher...imagine only 1mio...den shoebox fly off the shelves...lol
Thanks for sharing. Agree with your perspective too except that I believe all will be affected. Just a matter of how much. There are speculators in all sectors. Not sure if u are referring to Mickey mouse condos, but I will not buy any even if price falls by 40%. Think they are super inflated.
I like to remind myself with Japan. They have never recovered from they peak. Even now, they are way off the peak. My income is just around 120k pa so I cannot afford to make too many mistakes unlike many rich brothers and sisters here.
wah income 120K pa :scared-4: ... many here don't even have stable income ;)
devilplate
16-01-11, 23:16
wah income 120K pa :scared-4: ... many here don't even have stable income ;)
agree...quite alot sia..;)
do u realise so many new nicks appear right after 14Jan measures.....really got solid demand:cheers1:
By setting our measure harsher than HK, it is sending out a very strong message. If you are an international investor and considering between HK and Singapore, which will you choose now? I would choose HK for various reasons. Money will flow out. When property doesn't provide the leverage which it should. Why should investors choose it over other forms of investments?
Let me share my view, Price appreciation come from 2form, 1 is the price , 2nd is the Foreign exchange rate. If we look at HKD vs SGD for the past 18months HKD has depreciated more than 20% as HKD is tagged to USD. Sg policy did state that SGD will continue to strenghten agaisnt USD by end of 2011(purpose is to cope with inflation,goods imported get cheaper). If i am a foreign investor i will invest in Singapore, Indonesia,India,China and Malaysia.
I am a newbie to property investment and have been looking to buy a property for the past few years but with the climbing prices and the frequent government measures, I have not purchase any property yet.
.......
That's the problem with you. You have been looking to buy a property for the past few years but never buy. You miss the forest for the trees.
You are the type who calculate and calculate. You want 100% guarantee your figures are correct, you hide behind your analysis and figures - but you are either scared or indecisive or both. You can be an junior analyst but you will never be an employer or enterpreneur.
Just do a few basic calculation and use your gut instinct.
rattydrama
16-01-11, 23:38
Thanks for the excellent advice. Do you mind if I quote you in one of my post in my blog? I am keeping the blog to remind myself to stay sane and this includes sourcing for advices like this.
Problem with rental is that whether it is sufficient depends on rates. I am expecting rates to go up to 3-4%. It was not too long ago that it was at this rate.
If interest rates goes up, prices will slide further and the fire sales you talk about will really start. Imagine someone paying $2.9k being asked to pay $4.3k. That's $1.4k more. Not alot, but alot if the person has stretched it!
Quote from cashrich the writer is head of .:turd:. I shy leh. I think there are many people in this forum who are far brainer than me and smarter than me. I am just a small small housefly.
My writing has got no insights and mostly common sense. I follow the crowd and I usually dont drill too much on paper return. For completed unit, I go for rental yield even for self stay. For uncompleted unit, I go for long term and potential even if I have to pay at highest psf price. However, I can choose the best facing/high floor and without unless space. All my properties are max 200m from MRT, fh or lh at the moment. If ppty drop 30%, I know I can still rent out. :p cos everyone will be selling away their cars.
I count myself sheer luck when I bought my current place 4 months ago. Now similar unit asking 240K above what I paid for. :eek: But I am not selling still.
devilplate
16-01-11, 23:42
I count myself sheer luck when I bought my current place 4 months ago. Now similar unit asking 240K above what I paid for. :eek: But I am not selling still.
u acted fast and furious right after 30Aug:cheers6: ....i bio bio bio...no action...lol:o
rattydrama
16-01-11, 23:43
u acted fast and furious right after 30Aug:cheers6: ....i bio bio bio...no action...lol:o
lucky never follow yr advice. But its a good advice... dont get me wrong. I bio yur advice still haha.
u acted fast and furious right after 30Aug:cheers6: ....i bio bio bio...no action...lol:o
haha u already acted in early 2009. You make the most mah ;)
That's the problem with you. You have been looking to buy a property for the past few years but never buy. You miss the forest for the trees.
You are the type who calculate and calculate. You want 100% guarantee your figures are correct, you hide behind your analysis and figures - but you are either scared or indecisive or both. You can be an junior analyst but you will never be an employer or enterpreneur.
Just do a few basic calculation and use your gut instinct.
I strongly agree with <Hopeful>, there are something that we cant calculate..luck and fate. we can have calculated risk but without risk where is the profit coming from? And another crucial things that we need is Guts and Action. What is the big deal if u fail...start all over. Is so fun ..like playing games..if the game ensure 100% win...i rather lose the game then wasting time.
That's the problem with you. You have been looking to buy a property for the past few years but never buy. You miss the forest for the trees.
You are the type who calculate and calculate. You want 100% guarantee your figures are correct, you hide behind your analysis and figures - but you are either scared or indecisive or both. You can be an junior analyst but you will never be an employer or enterpreneur.
Just do a few basic calculation and use your gut instinct.
The truth hurts but I tend to agree what hopeful said based on your forum comments
Thanks for the excellent advice. Do you mind if I quote you in one of my post in my blog? I am keeping the blog to remind myself to stay sane and this includes sourcing for advices like this.
Problem with rental is that whether it is sufficient depends on rates. I am expecting rates to go up to 3-4%. It was not too long ago that it was at this rate.
If interest rates goes up, prices will slide further and the fire sales you talk about will really start. Imagine someone paying $2.9k being asked to pay $4.3k. That's $1.4k more. Not alot, but alot if the person has stretched it!
Then I guess you just need to wait for the bank interest to push up to 3, 4% and catch people selling their properties out of desperation. But don't forget that you will also be taking a loan with that rate, trying to enter the market then, so you will also have to pay alot even if the price falls. If you expect that you have enough financial means to pay your mortgage at that rate, others (owners) are likely to be able to do that as well. How will you decide then? Wait for further price correction until the interest rate is low and property price is also low? That is when the whole world's economy crashes so badly that even your job may not be stable.
Then I guess you just need to wait for the bank interest to push up to 3, 4% and catch people selling their properties out of desperation. But don't forget that you will also be taking a loan with that rate, trying to enter the market then, so you will also have to pay alot even if the price falls. If you expect that you have enough financial means to pay your mortgage at that rate, others (owners) are likely to be able to do that as well. How will you decide then? Wait for further price correction until the interest rate is low and property price is also low? That is when the whole world's economy crashes so badly that even your job may not be stable.
I think the present condition, cash rich, solid economic in Asia, tons of foreign investors, solid solid demand all looking for property to protect their $$$ from inflation is the perfect receipt for rampant property run. Govt ard Asia recognize this n wanna protect their countries from getting ahead of their fundamentals.
In this environment wat r the chances we will see a crash? It's like do something or your $$$ will depreciate. Wat choices do we haf?? it's times like this where pple will balls of steel make the big $$$$ or die the worst. Well if u r unsure where to buy or not? Its always abt the location , be it OCR/CCR/RCR.
that quantum will likely be 2mio.
I second that!
Did someone ask for c g tax?
wah income 120K pa :scared-4: ... many here don't even have stable income ;)
Huh? No stable income? This is a surprise. Then how do they secure loans? Must be super rich or unstable but still very high income when averaged out.
Let me share my view, Price appreciation come from 2form, 1 is the price , 2nd is the Foreign exchange rate. If we look at HKD vs SGD for the past 18months HKD has depreciated more than 20% as HKD is tagged to USD. Sg policy did state that SGD will continue to strenghten agaisnt USD by end of 2011(purpose is to cope with inflation,goods imported get cheaper). If i am a foreign investor i will invest in Singapore, Indonesia,India,China and Malaysia.
Excellent point! Thanks for the reminder. I guess it then depends on whether and how much the foreign investor thinks SGD will appreciate relative to other currencies.
That's the problem with you. You have been looking to buy a property for the past few years but never buy. You miss the forest for the trees.
You are the type who calculate and calculate. You want 100% guarantee your figures are correct, you hide behind your analysis and figures - but you are either scared or indecisive or both. You can be an junior analyst but you will never be an employer or enterpreneur.
Just do a few basic calculation and use your gut instinct.
To a certain extend you are right. But I must say that I wasn't ready then. Was looking a bit here and there but my focus was on stock markets. Not sure how you see it but I nearly made 3-400k if I were to buy a property end 2007. But that will mean I have to sell my HDB. I decided not to. Since then, my HDB appreciated 150k and my investment in stocks made another 150k. Hence, I did not lose out that much. Of cuz on hindsight, property could have given me slightly more but how would anyone know? ;)
I strongly agree with <Hopeful>, there are something that we cant calculate..luck and fate. we can have calculated risk but without risk where is the profit coming from? And another crucial things that we need is Guts and Action. What is the big deal if u fail...start all over. Is so fun ..like playing games..if the game ensure 100% win...i rather lose the game then wasting time.
Easy to say but difficult to do when you have a family. I am considered very aggressive in stock investment but becuz I take calculated risk. Property is something i never dabbled yet becuz it is new to me. But I take your point on guts. This I got to learn from you all here.
devilplate
17-01-11, 08:50
Huh? No stable income? This is a surprise. Then how do they secure loans? Must be super rich or unstable but still very high income when averaged out.
Income or asset based loan..... No job aso can take loan
Bankers most welcome the latter as they noe income based loan borrowers can lose their job or suffer pay cut anytime....
devilplate
17-01-11, 08:54
Easy to say but difficult to do when you have a family. I am considered very aggressive in stock investment but becuz I take calculated risk. Property is something i never dabbled yet becuz it is new to me. But I take your point on guts. This I got to learn from you all here.
Nothing wrong wif u after i heard tat u nid to sell hdb last time inorder to buy condo.... U made some money like 150k from stocks... Well, can only buy mm.... I wud rather u pump bck the 150k into stocks.... Wait till u got at least 500k cash den look at ppty.....:)
Nothing wrong wif u after i heard tat u nid to sell hdb last time inorder to buy condo.... U made some money like 150k from stocks... Well, can only buy mm.... I wud rather u pump bck the 150k into stocks.... Wait till u got at least 500k cash den look at ppty.....:)
150k of profit. I do have around 3-400k now if I decide to cash out of my other investments, more if I sell my HDB (another 370k) which I don't think I would. For the moment they are still in the stock market. Just wondering if I should be looking at alternate forms of investments.
But you are right, at 30% it was enough. But at 40% I am short again. Hope the stock market climbs up to make up for the shortfall. Anyway looking at the calculations, stock is my best bet currently. If a number of people are priced out, money may flow back to stocks.
Wild Falcon
17-01-11, 09:13
I think also depends on individual's risk appetite lah. If you need to calculate so much, it also means your risk appetite is also lower, which means u really shouldn't follow those with higher risk appetite because it is not your cup of tea. Property was a good investment few years back, but now, may not be. Remember with government measures intended to curb upside, upside potential will be quite limited. If die die must buy, stick to those properties with good fundamentals, rentals or future growth. I think that will not go too wrong. And trust your own instinct, never follow the herd blindly.
Easy to say but difficult to do when you have a family. I am considered very aggressive in stock investment but becuz I take calculated risk. Property is something i never dabbled yet becuz it is new to me. But I take your point on guts. This I got to learn from you all here.
150k of profit. I do have around 3-400k now if I decide to cash out of my other investments, more if I sell my HDB (another 370k) which I don't think I would. For the moment they are still in the stock market. Just wondering if I should be looking at alternate forms of investments.
But you are right, at 30% it was enough. But at 40% I am short again. Hope the stock market climbs up to make up for the shortfall. Anyway looking at the calculations, stock is my best bet currently. If a number of people are priced out, money may flow back to stocks.
are u aiming new launch or resale?
for me i am very kiasu, even if i take 80% loan i will set aside cash sufficient to pay down to 50%. i see your cash buffer like cutting it really close...
are u aiming new launch or resale?
for me i am very kiasu, even if i take 80% loan i will set aside cash sufficient to pay down to 50%. i see your cash buffer like cutting it really close...
At the moment I am not aiming for anything. Just waiting to see how things turn out first. I am looking at max 1-1.5m so I will need 400-600k from 40%. Still short so coming in for some crash course by throwing out my views for public scrutiny. This way, when I am ready and the time is right, I will be able to move immediately and not NATO as some say. Lol
Personally think 40% down is sufficient buffer as I don't think price will crash beyond that even if there is a recession now.
devilplate
17-01-11, 09:31
Personally think 40% down is sufficient buffer as I don't think price will crash beyond that even if there is a recession now.
yes, 40% is almost impossible for bank to call u for top-up too as long u can pay ur installment faithfully....those who borrow 10-20% last time kena first
jus make sure u got 40% down redy+2yrs of installment....its very very safe liao for ur risk appetite
Personally think 40% down is sufficient buffer as I don't think price will crash beyond that even if there is a recession now.
40% is sufficient buffer for the bank.
Not for you.
With SSD, your buffer is 4 years of mortgage, maintenance etc...
Wild Falcon
17-01-11, 09:33
Don't go hit anything above $1.5 million. Not worth it anymore. Imagine putting down $600k cash on something that has no guarantee of appreciation and one whole bunch of SSD when u sell. If u wanna invest, best is keep below the $1.2 million range. Most Singaporeans are ok with putting down $400-$500k.
At the moment I am not aiming for anything. Just waiting to see how things turn out first. I am looking at max 1-1.5m so I will need 400-600k from 40%. Still short so coming in for some crash course by throwing out my views for public scrutiny. This way, when I am ready and the time is right, I will be able to move immediately and not NATO as some say. Lol
Personally think 40% down is sufficient buffer as I don't think price will crash beyond that even if there is a recession now.
At the moment I am not aiming for anything. Just waiting to see how things turn out first. I am looking at max 1-1.5m so I will need 400-600k from 40%. Still short so coming in for some crash course by throwing out my views for public scrutiny. This way, when I am ready and the time is right, I will be able to move immediately and not NATO as some say. Lol
Personally think 40% down is sufficient buffer as I don't think price will crash beyond that even if there is a recession now.
oh i meant buffer as in worst case scenario regarding one's personal financial situation e.g. cannot service loan due to job loss etc etc
dun worry about ppl say NATO this or that, hindsight is always 20/20 only gd for bragging rights lol
At the moment I am not aiming for anything. Just waiting to see how things turn out first. I am looking at max 1-1.5m so I will need 400-600k from 40%. Still short so coming in for some crash course by throwing out my views for public scrutiny. This way, when I am ready and the time is right, I will be able to move immediately and not NATO as some say. Lol
Personally think 40% down is sufficient buffer as I don't think price will crash beyond that even if there is a recession now.
1. You need to liquidate your HDB first before you buy. You cannot hold HDB and buy private now under Aug 2010 ruling.
2. Without HDB, you should be able to get 80% loan. Hence need only 20% for $1.5m which is $300k.
3. Out of 20%, you need only put down 5% cash, which is $75k. The rest can use CPF.
So, after you liquidate your HDB, you can more than afford $1.5m condo with LTV 80% available from banks. So you can still keep some cash for stock investment.
devilplate
17-01-11, 11:57
1. You need to liquidate your HDB first before you buy. You cannot hold HDB and buy private now under Aug 2010 ruling.
2. Without HDB, you should be able to get 80% loan. Hence need only 20% for $1.5m which is $300k.
3. Out of 20%, you need only put down 5% cash, which is $75k. The rest can use CPF.
So, after you liquidate your HDB, you can more than afford $1.5m condo with LTV 80% available from banks. So you can still keep some cash for stock investment.
point no.1 is not true rite? :confused:
if u oredi owned a HDB and serve ur MOP, u can buy pte ppty without selling off ur HDB....
1. You need to liquidate your HDB first before you buy. You cannot hold HDB and buy private now under Aug 2010 ruling.
2. Without HDB, you should be able to get 80% loan. Hence need only 20% for $1.5m which is $300k.
3. Out of 20%, you need only put down 5% cash, which is $75k. The rest can use CPF.
So, after you liquidate your HDB, you can more than afford $1.5m condo with LTV 80% available from banks. So you can still keep some cash for stock investment.
Exeehc ... ur pt 1 not true leh ... confuse ppl :simmering:
Exeehc ... ur pt 1 not true leh ... confuse ppl :simmering:
I understand from Aug 2010 ruling is that, you are not allowed to hold HDB and buy private condo. Whether in Singapore or overseas.
I understand from Aug 2010 ruling is that, you are not allowed to hold HDB and buy private condo. Whether in Singapore or overseas.
I had the same understanding as well. However, I think this ruling is not retrospective. That is, if you are already an owner of both HDB and private property before the rules are implemented, you can keep both.
Anyone can tell me if my understanding is correct?:)
point no.1 is not true rite? :confused:
if u oredi owned a HDB and serve ur MOP, u can buy pte ppty without selling off ur HDB....
OK you are right... as long as served the MOP, can buy private. :)
OK you are right... as long as served the MOP, can buy private. :)
Does this apply as well if the HDB loan is still outstanding after the MOP?
devilplate
17-01-11, 12:46
Does this apply as well if the HDB loan is still outstanding after the MOP?
as long MOP served...den u r fine to buy pte ppty.....some MOP is 3...some 5yrs...depend on ur situation
as long MOP served...den u r fine to buy pte ppty.....some MOP is 3...some 5yrs...depend on ur situation
I see... that's not too bad, I think. It's not as bad as the last peak where they do not allow HDB owners to own private property and vice versa.
Maybe, they are reserving this rule for round 5?!?!?!?!?!:scared-1:
devilplate
17-01-11, 13:05
I see... that's not too bad, I think. It's not as bad as the last peak where they do not allow HDB owners to own private property and vice versa.
Maybe, they are reserving this rule for round 5?!?!?!?!?!:scared-1:
if HDB prices went outrageous lor:D
rattydrama
17-01-11, 20:43
point no 3 might not be true. Should be 10% cash and not 5%.
as long MOP served...den u r fine to buy pte ppty.....some MOP is 3...some 5yrs...depend on ur situation
Information on MOP:
If you purchase a non-subsidised flat before 30 Aug 2010, MOP is at least 3 years.
If you purchase a non-subsidised flat after 30th Aug 2010), MOP is at least 5 years.
If you purchase a subsidised flat (flat purchased directly from HDB or from the open market with a CPF housing grant), the MOP is at least 5 years.
Thanks for sharing. Agree with your perspective too except that I believe all will be affected. Just a matter of how much. There are speculators in all sectors. Not sure if u are referring to Mickey mouse condos, but I will not buy any even if price falls by 40%. Think they are super inflated.
Fall 40%? Seriously I will cheong ahhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!
Fall 40%? Seriously I will cheong ahhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!
the cheap units will never go the the open market. 30,000 of agents in the market
the agents will be the 1st to come across, and either flip themselves.
or ask their big ticket customer to buy.
afterall buy through them,and rent through them.. win-win situation.
Fall 40%? Seriously I will cheong ahhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!
Perhaps they shouldn't just fall by 40%. Aren't we all waiting for all to fall by 50 or 70%? Sounds like a Great Singapore Sale.
Perhaps they shouldn't just fall by 40%. Aren't we all waiting for all to fall by 50 or 70%? Sounds like a Great Singapore Sale.
Actually, since some people here comment with ridiculous percentages and numbers with no real logical evidence of fall in prices, I might as well make this discussion sound even sillier - lets wait for owners to suddenly give up their properties to prospective buyers for free.
Fall 40%? Seriously I will cheong ahhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!
40% fall.? 650k resale condo, 40% is 390k.. cheaper than HDB..
got anot..? i want 3units.. hahaha
40% fall.? 650k resale condo, 40% is 390k.. cheaper than HDB..
got anot..? i want 3units.. hahaha
I am surprise that many here thinks HDB prices does not fall. If condo prices fall, HDB prices will fall too. Why? Because the demand of condo will go up as prices fall and there will be people who wanted to buy HDB who will buy condo instead.
Ask around. If it can happen once, it can happen again. My parent HDB from 50k (long time ago) went to peak of 600k, then dropped to 380k and now at 680k after around 10yrs.
Same for my HDB resale, bought at super low interest/volume time at 200k. Now between 450-500k. Does it have room to fall? I personally think yes. HDB is always priced relative to the entire market.
To some, no, HDB prices will never fall because supported by fundamentals mah, 80% residents in Singapore living & need to live in HDB flats. HDB flats won't fall means mass market OCR properties sure go up because got upgraders become rich from selling HDB flats to upgrade to $1200 psf OCR private properties mah, also supported by fundamentals! Soon OCR will hit $2000 psf to close the gap to CCR prices! Ops! :beats-me-man:
I am surprise that many here thinks HDB prices does not fall. If condo prices fall, HDB prices will fall too. Why? Because the demand of condo will go up as prices fall and there will be people who wanted to buy HDB who will buy condo instead.
Ask around. If it can happen once, it can happen again. My parent HDB from 50k (long time ago) went to peak of 600k, then dropped to 380k and now at 680k after around 10yrs.
Same for my HDB resale, bought at super low interest/volume time at 200k. Now between 450-500k. Does it have room to fall? I personally think yes. HDB is always priced relative to the entire market.
I am surprise that many here thinks HDB prices does not fall. If condo prices fall, HDB prices will fall too. Why? Because the demand of condo will go up as prices fall and there will be people who wanted to buy HDB who will buy condo instead.
Ask around. If it can happen once, it can happen again. My parent HDB from 50k (long time ago) went to peak of 600k, then dropped to 380k and now at 680k after around 10yrs.
Same for my HDB resale, bought at super low interest/volume time at 200k. Now between 450-500k. Does it have room to fall? I personally think yes. HDB is always priced relative to the entire market.
That is why when we buy a property, it is better to look at long term gains than short term ones. There will be several bulls and bears over the next 10, 15 years, but one strong bull is enough to pull us out of the woods, if we can hold out that long.
It is no longer so straightforward to analyse HDB investment nowadays. Those with HDBs, may not want to upgrade to a condo property like before. Those with condos, may not want to buy a HDB anymore because it sounds troublesome having to dump the condo, unless they can sort out temporary accommodation issues. Those with neither, may want to wait or not wait for new flats. In the meantime, while the Chinese dollar gets stronger, the Chinese may come in to grab multiple units of condos while the sun shines brightly in mainland.
Property investment is a bit different from stocks investment. You can physically see it and even use it even if its value drops, as long as you have the ability to hold it and if it can stay attractive in the long run. Asking new launches in the near future to drop by 40%, is almost like asking Chanel, Prada, Gucci to drop their prices (or 'correct') storewide by 40% suddenly, without any conditions. Are there really such sale happening in properties?
To some, no, HDB prices will never fall because supported by fundamentals mah, 80% residents in Singapore living & need to live in HDB flats. HDB flats won't fall means mass market OCR properties sure go up because got upgraders become rich from selling HDB flats to upgrade to $1200 psf OCR private properties mah, also supported by fundamentals! Soon OCR will hit $2000 psf to close the gap to CCR prices! Ops! :beats-me-man:
Imagine this:
10y ago say HDB price 300psf, OCR condo 600psf, to upgrade to a 2br condo, you sell your HDB and borrow (600-300) X 1000sqft = 300k
Now, you sell HDB at 450psf, OCR condo 1100psf, to upgrade to a 2br condo, you sell your HDB and borrow (1100-450) X 900sqft (smaller) = 650k
You have double the debt, has the income of HDB upgraders doubled??
That's why government introduces EC ... at 700psf, HDB upgraders will be happy.
Imagine this:
10y ago say HDB price 300psf, OCR condo 600psf, to upgrade to a 2br condo, you sell your HDB and borrow (600-300) X 1000sqft = 300k
Now, you sell HDB at 450psf, OCR condo 1100psf, to upgrade to a 2br condo, you sell your HDB and borrow (1100-450) X 900sqft (smaller) = 650k
You have double the debt, has the income of HDB upgraders doubled??
Your example is that of a HDB dweller trying to borrow more money to buy a condo that has appreciated too much since 10 years ago. Question is will this condo at 1100psf grow to say... 1600psf in 10 years (based on your example of a growth of 500psf)?
Price high or low is a matter of relative.
I dun consider all these calcuation as an investor, I am more interested what will be the price of tomorrow
Your example is that of a HDB dweller trying to borrow more money to buy a condo that has appreciated too much since 10 years ago. Question is will this condo at 1100psf grow to say... 1600psf in 10 years (based on your example of a growth of 500psf)?
If OCR condo grows to 1600psf, say HDB resale price reaches 700psf in 10y, that means there is a 900psf gap. Assume HDB upgraders don't mind living in 800sqft 2br and has no outstanding debt, they must borrow 720k. For 1000sqft 3br, HDB upgraders must borrow 900k. I think banks are only ok to lend this amount if family income is 10k. Would average family income hit 10k by then?
devilplate
18-01-11, 09:32
If OCR condo grows to 1600psf, say HDB resale price reaches 700psf in 10y, that means there is a 900psf gap. Assume HDB upgraders don't mind living in 800sqft 2br and has no outstanding debt, they must borrow 720k. For 1000sqft 3br, HDB upgraders must borrow 900k. I think banks are only ok to lend this amount if family income is 10k. Would average family income hit 10k by then?
if u calculate like dat 10yrs back....den OCR hitting 1kpsf is impossible....forget it and move on....find too high just dun buy...ur choice
if u calculate like dat 10yrs back....den OCR hitting 1kpsf is impossible....forget it and move on....find too high just dun buy...ur choice
Well, most of you are not HDB upgraders so naturally you do not care. I am just saying that it is not financially prudent for HDB upgraders to buy at > 1kpsf for OCR condos.
devilplate
18-01-11, 09:44
Well, most of you are not HDB upgraders so naturally you do not care. I am just saying that it is not financially prudent for HDB upgraders to buy at > 1kpsf for OCR condos.
tats y they 'downgrade ' to 1-2bedders in OCR lor...more MM sprouting in OCR...more ppl r looking to invest in OCR due to strong rental demand as well...bcoz renters pckage also nvr increase much and they goto move further away
sizes shrink and push up psf...quantum remains the same...i am sure u noe it
Well, most of you are not HDB upgraders so naturally you do not care. I am just saying that it is not financially prudent for HDB upgraders to buy at > 1kpsf for OCR condos.
why are you talking about psf? it is total quantum that matters no matter how you slice and dice it.
HDB 30 years big, but big family so smaller area per person
HDB now small, but smaller family, so bigger area per person.
Wild Falcon
18-01-11, 09:58
Actually I know of people who bought their first flat which is a HDB but subsequently do well in life as well to afford the good things in life. Don't forget, those who manage to get the subsidy from the government will ALWAYS do better than those who didn't ceteris paribus. I'm sure some of the bros who look down on people who grow up in HDB environment are the exact ones who look down on them today. They can do well in life as well. I find it ridiculous when everyone keep saying because someone used to stay in a lowly HDB, means cannot afford 1000psf. There are people who never step into a HDB flat and still do badly in life. HDB upgraders tend to be those who get married pretty young before they reach their 10k ceiling. But that doesn't mean they cannot subsequently rise up the ranks and do well in life.
Sorry, I find it in bad taste when people always look down on "HDB upgraders" and their financial strength.
And don't forget, their 5-room HDB is only bought at 200k in 2004? If they sell at 600k, the get 400k profits. Not forgetting they must have savings of easily 300k? Don't under-estimate them.
Well, most of you are not HDB upgraders so naturally you do not care. I am just saying that it is not financially prudent for HDB upgraders to buy at > 1kpsf for OCR condos.
devilplate
18-01-11, 10:02
Not every household get to auto upgrade to condo la.....buy BTO, 5yrs later MUST AUTO upgrade to condo meh? only those who strive and fly able to wat....fair and sq...u wana upgrade...work for it and stop complaining:p
i still can see BTO prices within 1st timer's reach...PPL r choosy about location nia!
........ Don't forget, those who manage to get the subsidy from the government will ALWAYS do better than those who didn't ceteris paribus. .........
understand the rest of the post except for this part?
You mean to say, those who gey government subsidy buy flat at cheaper price and when they sell, they get more profit, ceteris paribus?
doesn't that apply to mostly all singaporeans HDB buyers?
devilplate
18-01-11, 10:05
understand the rest of the post except for this part?
You mean to say, those who gey government subsidy buy flat at cheaper price and when they sell, they get more profit, ceteris paribus?
doesn't that apply to mostly all singaporeans HDB buyers?
means sure win if u buy BTO!!!
Wild Falcon
18-01-11, 10:08
Exactly - we're not talking about the average HDB flat dweller. Probably the top 20% will upgrade. What makes one think they can't afford a $1.2 million home? In fact, most of my friends who wants to upgrade are NOT even selling their HDB flat. They can pay the HDB loan and upgrade and hold 2 units. Have u not read those question from the upgraders in this forum? Most of the question is "should I keep my HDB flat"? And I know of some from HDB direct to landed.
Not every household get to auto upgrade to condo la.....buy BTO, 5yrs later MUST AUTO upgrade to condo meh? only those who strive and fly able to wat....fair and sq...u wana upgrade...work for it and stop complaining:p
i still can see BTO prices within 1st timer's reach...PPL r choosy about location nia!
Wonder if its due to Roxy reduced selling price by 14% or what.... Spottiswoode 18 still a lot of people in launch location. .. cooling measures still not working?
Actually, 14% discount, TOP in 2014.... by then if dispose, at most kena 4% SSD. if can sell at original launch price (before 14%) 3 years later ...
Imagine this:
10y ago say HDB price 300psf, OCR condo 600psf, to upgrade to a 2br condo, you sell your HDB and borrow (600-300) X 1000sqft = 300k
Now, you sell HDB at 450psf, OCR condo 1100psf, to upgrade to a 2br condo, you sell your HDB and borrow (1100-450) X 900sqft (smaller) = 650k
You have double the debt, has the income of HDB upgraders doubled??
That's why government introduces EC ... at 700psf, HDB upgraders will be happy.
Er... you mean HDB upgrader can only afford EC? :(
Wild Falcon
18-01-11, 10:18
I think it's the low 6xx to 7xx quantum... Developers strategy for 2011:
SHOEBOXES (with high PSF) :)
Wonder if its due to Roxy reduced selling price by 14% or what.... Spottiswoode 18 still a lot of people in launch location. .. cooling measures still not working?
Actually, 14% discount, TOP in 2014.... by then if dispose, at most kena 4% SSD. if can sell at original launch price (before 14%) 3 years later ...
devilplate
18-01-11, 10:18
Wonder if its due to Roxy reduced selling price by 14% or what.... Spottiswoode 18 still a lot of people in launch location. .. cooling measures still not working?
Actually, 14% discount, TOP in 2014.... by then if dispose, at most kena 4% SSD. if can sell at original launch price (before 14%) 3 years later ...
u passby there? or u r physically there now? hows the situation?
those who manage to get the subsidy from the government will ALWAYS do better than those who didn't ceteris paribus.
... really ... ? does it even make sense... ?
for the young trader who's not qualified for HDB because of high income by himself alone, do you forsee 5 yrs later the average new couples in HDB will do better ?
I would expect the total opposite.
Wild Falcon
18-01-11, 13:01
You dunno the meaning of ceteris paribus? Read properly.
Make things easier for you before you start responding nonsense. Ceteris paribus means all else being equal.
... really ... ? does it even make sense... ?
for the young trader who's not qualified for HDB because of high income by himself alone, do you forsee 5 yrs later the average new couples in HDB will do better ?
I would expect the total opposite.
You dunno the meaning of ceteris paribus? Read properly.
Make things easier for you before you start responding nonsense. Ceteris paribus means all else being equal.
I know what it means.
I dun know what you meant.
To qualify for HDB, a couple cannot have more than 8k income. Vs some one who has 10k income alone, both 27ys old (after 2yrs of work). what other "else" do u want to be "equal" ? And you say your young <8k income earners ALWAYS do better than the young 10k earners ? How is this making any sense ?
...Don't forget, those who manage to get the subsidy from the government will ALWAYS do better than those who didn't ceteris paribus......
Exactly - we're not talking about the average HDB flat dweller. Probably the top 20% will upgrade....../quote]
[quote=Wild Falcon]You dunno the meaning of ceteris paribus? Read properly.
Make things easier for you before you start responding nonsense. Ceteris paribus means all else being equal.
That's the part I dont understand.
First you mention those who manage to get subsidy from government will always do better.....
Who is the people who manages to get subsidy, I would say most if not all enjoyed subsidies.
what all else part being equal - income wise? :confused: If income the same, both would get subsidies right?
Do better in what sense. only 20% can upgrade? so only 20% get subsidies? :confused:
Please enlighten.
Sorry, I don't how to read between the lines.
u passby there? or u r physically there now? hows the situation?
Yeah... passed by. Lots of people and lots of agents. No place to park. People are crowding outside marquee... no place inside marquee. I dont believe what i see..... what new measure?
Ha ha ha! Very hilarious!!! You telling some joke is it? Bought first subsidized HDB flats means they will definitely do better in life? :doh:
The person who bought a HDB flat in 2004 for $200k must have felt very stupid now if he could afford a condo at that time! And are you sure your figure is correct in that which HDB flat which can be bought for $200k in 2004 is worth $600k now? Which purchase, HDB or condo of same size, would have made him the most money in 2004?
Actually I know of people who bought their first flat which is a HDB but subsequently do well in life as well to afford the good things in life. Don't forget, those who manage to get the subsidy from the government will ALWAYS do better than those who didn't ceteris paribus. I'm sure some of the bros who look down on people who grow up in HDB environment are the exact ones who look down on them today. They can do well in life as well. I find it ridiculous when everyone keep saying because someone used to stay in a lowly HDB, means cannot afford 1000psf. There are people who never step into a HDB flat and still do badly in life. HDB upgraders tend to be those who get married pretty young before they reach their 10k ceiling. But that doesn't mean they cannot subsequently rise up the ranks and do well in life.
Sorry, I find it in bad taste when people always look down on "HDB upgraders" and their financial strength.
And don't forget, their 5-room HDB is only bought at 200k in 2004? If they sell at 600k, the get 400k profits. Not forgetting they must have savings of easily 300k? Don't under-estimate them.
Ha ha ha! Very hilarious!!! You telling some joke is it? Bought first subsidized HDB flats means they will definitely do better in life? :doh:
The person who bought a HDB flat in 2004 for $200k must have felt very stupid now if he could afford a condo at that time! And are you sure your figure is correct in that which HDB flat which can be bought for $200k in 2004 is worth $600k now? Which purchase, HDB or condo of same size, would have made him the most money in 2004?
I can't agree more.. You are talking about me... Should have bought kovan melody instead of the 5 room flat.
kingkong1984
18-01-11, 18:46
I can't agree more.. You are talking about me... Should have bought kovan melody instead of the 5 room flat.
Pengz!
Should have bought landed instead!
devilplate
18-01-11, 18:55
Pengz!
Should have bought landed instead!
i shd haf max leverage on stocks in 2009
Wild Falcon
18-01-11, 20:00
Ceteris paribus means all ealse being equal, including income. ALL ELSE.
Those who buy the HDB flats are those who marry young before they reach the 10k ceiling. For instance couple who get married immediately after graduation still below the income ceilings when they are below 25. By the time they reach mid thirties, many will rise up the ranks - perhaps >$300k with bonuses - not difficult to reach in today's job market for certain professionals. I'm not saying all will do well - I'm saying just because someone buys a HDB flat doesn't mean he will NOT do well in the future to upgrade. Similarly just because someone is a late developer, i.e. he never has a chance to buy a subsidised HDB flat because by the time he saves enough in his late twenties or early thirties, he and his wife would have exceed the income ceiling which means he misses his chance of getting his first flat when he was younger and misses the gain from his first flat.
If you think that a HDB flat dweller can never rise up the ranks - so be it. i don't want to debate that - but I've seen many who did well - might be richer than you (still looking for primary home near school?). I'm sure you don't believe but doesn't matter.
I know what it means.
I dun know what you meant.
To qualify for HDB, a couple cannot have more than 8k income. Vs some one who has 10k income alone, both 27ys old (after 2yrs of work). what other "else" do u want to be "equal" ? And you say your young <8k income earners ALWAYS do better than the young 10k earners ? How is this making any sense ?
Pengz!
Should have bought landed instead!
Can only afford kovan melody at that time, not landed wor.. Still remembered the 13th floor 3 bedroom unit which we like cost less than $750K during launch... But comparing the 5 room hdb which is only $240K and slightly bigger, we think it is far more worth it. The greatest regret so far!:banghead:
Wild Falcon
18-01-11, 20:06
Because a fresh graduate will not have the outlay to buy a condo unless the parents help. But HDB is different - it's darn cheap with minimal outlay and significant subsidy. That helps to generate gains immediately after they graduate with minimal capital outlay.
Anyway, if you want to believe its hilarious that HDB dwellers can do well, so be it. I'm just giving an example that I've seen. I have a colleague one rank above me and still living in a HDB flat! Income easily exceeded $500k per year. Who r we to laugh?
Ha ha ha! Very hilarious!!! You telling some joke is it? Bought first subsidized HDB flats means they will definitely do better in life? :doh:
The person who bought a HDB flat in 2004 for $200k must have felt very stupid now if he could afford a condo at that time! And are you sure your figure is correct in that which HDB flat which can be bought for $200k in 2004 is worth $600k now? Which purchase, HDB or condo of same size, would have made him the most money in 2004?
Because a fresh graduate will not have the outlay to buy a condo unless the parents help. But HDB is different - it's darn cheap with minimal outlay and significant subsidy. That helps to generate gains immediately after they graduate with minimal capital outlay.
Anyway, if you want to believe its hilarious that HDB dwellers can do well, so be it. I'm just giving an example that I've seen. I have a colleague one rank above me and still living in a HDB flat! Income easily exceeded $500k per year. Who r we to laugh?
I respect your colleague. Live in HDB with an arsenal of investments. Anytime he's not happy on the job, he can tell his boss to bugger off.
I am not saying that those who had lived in HDB flats will not do well in future, but laughing at your statement that those who bought subsidized HDB flats will sure do well in life! Very funny statement!
By the way, $500k is not a lot nowsdays. Unless the person knows how to invest, their money will drop in value like no tomorrow! (as is happening now. That $500k will become <$200k purchasing value within 10 years!). No wonder he still needs to live in HDB flat? I know of several people who are like that - earns a lot, but don't know how to grow their money, get conned by those RMs/investments etc, earned money depreciate to little value while sitting in the bank. Meanwhile, those who did really well all around will sooner or later upgrade to a private property (be it condo or landed). Tell me, which multi-millionaire live in HDB? :doh: Having a few $millions is just a small fry nowsdays in Singapore.
Because a fresh graduate will not have the outlay to buy a condo unless the parents help. But HDB is different - it's darn cheap with minimal outlay and significant subsidy. That helps to generate gains immediately after they graduate with minimal capital outlay.
Anyway, if you want to believe its hilarious that HDB dwellers can do well, so be it. I'm just giving an example that I've seen. I have a colleague one rank above me and still living in a HDB flat! Income easily exceeded $500k per year. Who r we to laugh?
How many people living in HDB are earning 500k per year?? There is no point giving example that is not statistically significant. I have one friend who bought subsidized HDB in 2005 for 220k + reno about 250k, now valuation still below 400k ... how is it possible that valuation reaches 600k?!
The > 1000psf OCR condo is barely affordable to the average HDB upgraders nowadays, if you think you can buy at 1.1kpsf and sell it to HDB upgraders to make a quick gain in a few years time, you really need a lot of luck :2cents:
Whenever ECs are selling like hotcakes ... peak is not far already.
How many people living in HDB are earning 500k per year?? There is no point giving example that is not statistically significant. I have one friend who bought subsidized HDB in 2005 for 220k + reno about 250k, now valuation still below 400k ... how is it possible that valuation reaches 600k?!
The > 1000psf OCR condo is barely affordable to the average HDB upgraders nowadays, if you think you can buy at 1.1kpsf and sell it to HDB upgraders to make a quick gain in a few years time, you really need a lot of luck :2cents:
Whenever ECs are selling like hotcakes ... peak is not far already.
so u still mean HDB upgrader can only buy EC? :mad:
Because a fresh graduate will not have the outlay to buy a condo unless the parents help. But HDB is different - it's darn cheap with minimal outlay and significant subsidy. That helps to generate gains immediately after they graduate with minimal capital outlay.
Anyway, if you want to believe its hilarious that HDB dwellers can do well, so be it. I'm just giving an example that I've seen. I have a colleague one rank above me and still living in a HDB flat! Income easily exceeded $500k per year. Who r we to laugh?
Interesting thought but the flaw in your argument is that you assumed all who had subsidized HDB do well in life compared to those who does not.
Well... I have no subsidy when I bought my first private property. I was price out of the HDB then...
Now after 3 private properties, I can say I am glad I did not have the subsidy.
I had seen peers paying fully for their nice landed properties with profits from their private property transaction. I dont recall them getting any subsidized HDB.
I have also seen those with the so call head start in life stuck at where they are with their HDB.
In a nutshell, your agrument is interesting but flawed imho.
There are other factors in life you have to consider to make it in life (luck, good job, etc)
As for your 1 up earning 500K a year living in a HDB... I wonder why?
Perhaps he is has no subsidized HDB and thus cannot upgrade like the others. If that is the case , you do have a valid point( ie no subsidy = no headstart, no success, etc)
Success in life is subjective. You can be cash rich, asset poor,or asset rich,cash poor,or asset rich, cash rich , but everything else poor
By the way, I think quite highly of HDB dwellers. I do recall a forum topic on a SAILowner having a HDB address AND I do believe that you can make it in life even if you stay in a HDB or anywhere else for that matter.
Oh did I mentioned I was staying in one for almost 30 years since I was born till I made my first property purchase?
Anyway, thanks for the interesting spin on life.
devilplate
18-01-11, 22:22
i can only say tat by buying BTO is definitely a sure-win 7-8yrs later....however, one cannot invest in pte ppty for 7-8yrs....easily missed one ppty cycle...so, depends on how u see it yay:D
for newly wed at this current environment, i urged u all to buy BTO/EC....esparina 2bedders still got anot?? pls consider ok? hehe(exercise ur priviledge as a 1st timer)....NO mass market new launches at this point of time....1st bet better be safe den sorry:D
for ECs: prices difference is not great for various locations as its capped by income ceiling....so must buy the BEST available location.....if u look back, bishan loft was launched abt the same psf as other ECs last time and see how much more it commands now compared to other ECs in the same era...:D
i can only say tat by buying BTO is definitely a sure-win 7-8yrs later....however, one cannot invest in pte ppty for 7-8yrs....easily missed one ppty cycle...so, depends on how u see it yay:D
for newly wed at this current environment, i urged u all to buy BTO/EC....esparina 2bedders still got anot?? pls consider ok? hehe(exercise ur priviledge as a 1st timer)....NO mass market new launches at this point of time....1st bet better be safe den sorry:D
for ECs: prices difference is not great for various locations as its capped by income ceiling....so must buy the BEST available location.....if u look back, bishan loft was launched abt the same psf as other ECs last time and see how much more it commands now compared to other ECs in the same era...:D
Very good advice. You are really a professional investor. :cheers1:
But young working adults thinking is different from last time. They want to own private condo or even landed property in double quick time. 7 years may be too long and the cycle is shorter now. Asia economy is picking up now. Many fears that they may miss the boat.
Very good advice. You are really a professional investor. :cheers1:
Those who buy the HDB flats are those who marry young before they reach the 10k ceiling. For instance couple who get married immediately after graduation still below the income ceilings when they are below 25.
ok I finally see what u meant. interesting argument, but as Duku said, flawed, or at least, a bit far fetched.
statistically speaking, how many couples get married right after school ? from sociology point of view, is it even good ?
ppl getting high income at the start of the career will most likely do better later. this is universal.
using early marriage as a tool to get public subsidy so later it can be traded up. ... well I'm not even sure whether MCYS would want to use it to encourage more marriages ;) . More over, as a few forumers pointed out, they miss out a whopping 7ys time window. just to secure this subsidy.
no lah, I dun think that's the mindset for most ppl lah. I see the point u r trying to make. But really no one is saying those living in HDB are all losers.
kingkong1984
19-01-11, 13:48
10k ceiling is quite low. Divide by 2 n u have only 5k. It might be better to go straight to condo. The gain is better. But not so sure moving forward. Might be the opposite now. Your time, your bet, your life. Beat it!
rattydrama
19-01-11, 18:59
Just to share that I bought a resale flat at high price and it dropped at least 100k until this cycle comes. In late 2009, I sold my flat as the gap between resale HDB and private condo narrowed. It could have widened now as the private price has jumped for my desired units. I missed the previous cycle but I managed to catch this one cos I was not ready to sell low (lost) and buy low.
Just to share that I bought a resale flat at high price and it dropped at least 100k until this cycle comes. In late 2009, I sold my flat as the gap between resale HDB and private condo narrowed. It could have widened now as the private price has jumped for my desired units. I missed the previous cycle but I managed to catch this one cos I was not ready to sell low (lost) and buy low.
In late 2009, when you sold your flat, did you (1) buy a condo with some of the money, (2) cashed out and keep all the money in the bank till now, or (3) invest in other things?
kingkong1984
19-01-11, 19:44
Just to share that I bought a resale flat at high price and it dropped at least 100k until this cycle comes. In late 2009, I sold my flat as the gap between resale HDB and private condo narrowed. It could have widened now as the private price has jumped for my desired units. I missed the previous cycle but I managed to catch this one cos I was not ready to sell low (lost) and buy low.
At least u got out in one piece. Condo is a better bet if u got it low. late 09 still considered good price. Definitely a best time to switch going by gap alone. Well done.
In this thread someone said that no one has found a way to value the property. I thought I want to try. This morning when I saw the news on the sell out, I got even more interested. Was I wrong?
Hence, I just spent the last 30mins working out a model to effectively price the condo base on market sentiments and to explain the frenzy even after the recently cooling measures.
I posted it in my blog, pls view and let me know whether you agree and if you have suggestions to enhance the model.
Click on my signature as I don't know how to include tables here.
In this thread someone said that no one has found a way to value the property. I thought I want to try. This morning when I saw the news on the sell out, I got even more interested. Was I wrong?
Hence, I just spent the last 30mins working out a model to effectively price the condo base on market sentiments and to explain the frenzy even after the recently cooling measures.
I posted it in my blog, pls view and let me know whether you agree and if you have suggestions to enhance the model.
Click on my signature as I don't know how to include tables here.
Hiro, that was a rather comprehensive analysis except that the view seems to be one-sided - simply that you do not believe there is anymore capital appreciation in buying a condo now. I personally feel that real profit/gain is not through rental yield but by capital appreciation. Not sure if you own a condo now. I own one, and quite comfortably want to hold it until it appreciates more. If you don't have one now, perhaps you should wait for the next crash, provided your job is secure then. But if this turns out to be some kind of a bull run for 3, 4 years with say an overall capital appreciation of 5 to 10 % a year, just don't ever look back and say "i should have done it then". I see the current measures as a window of opportunity for genuine first-time buyers, and secretly pleased that others are held back for now.
Hiro, that was a rather comprehensive analysis except that the view seems to be one-sided - simply that you do not believe there is anymore capital appreciation in buying a condo now. I personally feel that real profit/gain is not through rental yield but by capital appreciation. Not sure if you own a condo now. I own one, and quite comfortably want to hold it until it appreciates more. If you don't have one now, perhaps you should wait for the next crash, provided your job is secure then. But if this turns out to be some kind of a bull run for 3, 4 years with say an overall capital appreciation of 5 to 10 % a year, just don't ever look back and say "i should have done it then". I see the current measures as a window of opportunity for genuine first-time buyers, and secretly pleased that others are held back for now.
Lol. Was wondering whether I presented that thinking. Not true. I actually a factored in a 6% growth but minus 2% for inflation. I think 6% does fall in your 5-10% growth.
Also I also want to point out that I did not take into consideration the interest from loans. Depending on what you believe the average interest rate will be in your horizon timeframe, the present value will decrease accordingly. In fact, if the average interest rate is high say at 6%, it does not make sense to buy any property at all even if the rates now are superlow. Hence, I feel I was already optimistic in the model.
Hence, at this kind of price, my take is the cooling measure killed the flippers and the impeding interest rates will kill off the long term investors.
Lol. Was wondering whether I presented that thinking. Not true. I actually a factored in a 6% growth but minus 2% for inflation. I think 6% does fall in your 5-10% growth.
Also I also want to point out that I did not take into consideration the interest from loans. Depending on what you believe the average interest rate will be in your horizon timeframe, the present value will decrease accordingly. In fact, if the average interest rate is high say at 6%, it does not make sense to buy any property at all even if the rates now are superlow. Hence, I feel I was already optimistic in the model.
Hence, at this kind of price, my take is the cooling measure killed the flippers and the impeding interest rates will kill off the long term investors.
ur right.. cooling measures really too cooling for me, a flipper(if can flip), a long term investor(if im stuck with it) hahaha :D
i can afford a 50% loan, but is going to stuck for some time..
how long? i dont know
HDB is better choice at now, benefitting from spillover of business park..
Low prices, high yields, low risk
kingkong1984
19-01-11, 20:52
In this thread someone said that no one has found a way to value the property. I thought I want to try. This morning when I saw the news on the sell out, I got even more interested. Was I wrong?
Hence, I just spent the last 30mins working out a model to effectively price the condo base on market sentiments and to explain the frenzy even after the recently cooling measures.
I posted it in my blog, pls view and let me know whether you agree and if you have suggestions to enhance the model.
Click on my signature as I don't know how to include tables here.
Your assumptions are fixed and likely to go wrong. Population growth, inflation, exchange rate gain/loss, foreign direct investments, new housing policies, increased plot ratio, increased development charge, increased construction cost, increased land supplies, changing social demographics, aging population, war, political power shift etc.
One simple rule, buy if u need a roof, no choice. Invest when u can afford it.
ur right.. cooling measures really too cooling for me, a flipper(if can flip), a long term investor(if im stuck with it) hahaha :D
i can afford a 50% loan, but is going to stuck for some time..
how long? i dont know
HDB is better choice at now, benefitting from spillover of business park..
Low prices, high yields, low risk
unfortunately, now when you buy a HDB, you have to sell your private property.
unfortunately, now when you buy a HDB, you have to sell your private property.
well there are still buyers out there without a pte property. can opt for this as rental yield.. indirectly cut down % for pte prop buyers,isnt it.
im managing a hdb rental on behalf of a RICH peranakan frd + his indo wife.
he's staying in his parents landed,owns condos and shophouses all pen down in a will to him.
He bgt the HDB in 2010,for rental yield..
2011, he be paying for another HDB,in his brother name.. the brother coming back from UK,to celebrate CNY and buy HDB.. also for rental yield.
smart pp look out for grey area
Lol. Was wondering whether I presented that thinking. Not true. I actually a factored in a 6% growth but minus 2% for inflation. I think 6% does fall in your 5-10% growth.
Also I also want to point out that I did not take into consideration the interest from loans. Depending on what you believe the average interest rate will be in your horizon timeframe, the present value will decrease accordingly. In fact, if the average interest rate is high say at 6%, it does not make sense to buy any property at all even if the rates now are superlow. Hence, I feel I was already optimistic in the model.
Hence, at this kind of price, my take is the cooling measure killed the flippers and the impeding interest rates will kill off the long term investors.
My personal view is that any time to buy is good or bad, depending on how you see it. For instance, my property is sitting on a good location with no mrt now, but I often wonder if the next concept/masterplan 2011 will divulge any clues and change sentiments, spiking it to go up further. As I get older, my loan term also gets shorter as well. If the interest goes up to as high as you mentioned, even if the price drops, I may not buy because it only means I am paying more to the banks. I prefer to see what seems to be inevitable versus what is calculable (predicted) - (1) Chinese yuan will appreciate, and I hate to see their buying power increase and us being squeezed out of opportunities. (2) We are not producing enough babies to sustain our population growth, so we have to allow more immigrants. (3) HDB is no longer public housing if it is allowed to appreciate way out of reach for the average Singaporeans. Once that happens, we can forget about political stability. The people will vote for whoever can give them sustainable homes. With the limited land supply, the government has to take care of the mass first before releasing record land parcels for condos, rather than the other way round. Because the general public housing cannot be too high, private property will continue to be an attractive upgrade. (4) US bank interest will go up, but not before its economy/employment show more evidence of a rosy report. Obama has 2 more years to make this work, so does his opposing party. US will pull all stops to improve in this area. (5) if the governments around this region did not learn from their lessons in 97, 98 with the crashing of property prices by measures such as property gains tax and over-severe measures, then perhaps they all should not deserve to rule. I am confident that they are smart enough to know what to do this time.
kingkong1984
19-01-11, 21:09
Internal and external factors. Expressway and mrt... New expressway announced, some landed folks cleared. New mrt announced, some more landed owners cleared. Selective enrich or enblock. As u get older, why risk it, it should be downgrading and unlocking cash and not to be a slave forever.
Your assumptions are fixed and likely to go wrong. Population growth, inflation, exchange rate gain/loss, foreign direct investments, new housing policies, increased plot ratio, increased development charge, increased construction cost, increased land supplies, changing social demographics, aging population, war, political power shift etc.
One simple rule, buy if u need a roof, no choice. Invest when u can afford it.
Lol you are right that I do not take into account lots of other possible factors. But these factors u mention will affect interest rates and capital gain. The model is based on the assumption that the average capital gain is 6%. If u disagree based on your numerous other factors, tell me what u think is reasonable and I can help you work out the figures. My figures are what I believe in. Over a long time frame of 10-30 years. The things you stated will average out my friend.
Based on my model, I personally think your statement "invest if you can afford it" is not suitable for me. Affordability is not important anymore if I cannot see suitable rates of returns.
Having said that, if interest remains super low, I will be first to admit I am wrong. The current market to me, is only supported by low interest rates. If it stays low, there will be lotsa buyers for small affordable markets with high rentals. The developers knows this, hence the profiliration of so many Mickey mouse apartments. I regret not performing this calculation earlier as I think the prices when these condos started appearing were super attractive even if interest rates increase. Those who bought at a low were really astute investors. I can't say the same for those who are chasing up the prices now. My own humble opinion.
rattydrama
19-01-11, 21:29
Just to share that I bought a resale flat at high price and it dropped at least 100k until this cycle comes. In late 2009, I sold my flat as the gap between resale HDB and private condo narrowed. It could have widened now as the private price has jumped for my desired units. I missed the previous cycle but I managed to catch this one cos I was not ready to sell low (lost) and buy low.
sorry should be 4Q2010. Still thinking of 2009 in 2011. ahha time flies.
if the governments around this region did not learn fromtheir lessons in 97, 98 with the crashing of property prices by measures such as property gains tax and over-severe measures, then perhaps they all should not deserve to rule. I am confident that they are smart enough to know what to do this time.
Friend, the government are smart and have learnt from the last meltdown. This is why all the government in Asia are implementing measures to stop this from happening.
It is the "investors" who are making the same mistakes. As I am new to property, I thought it's different from stocks. Now after finding out more about it, it is not that much different. If one looks from investment perspective and throw emotions out. Then they can see that property is just but on form of investment.
rattydrama
19-01-11, 21:34
In late 2009, when you sold your flat, did you (1) buy a condo with some of the money, (2) cashed out and keep all the money in the bank till now, or (3) invest in other things?
in 4Q2010 sold and straight away bought another condo. And now my current apartment appreciates at least 15% from what I paid for. I am still eyeing for another as I still have cash + cpf.
I have recently invested in silver and still keeping my stock. I dont know how to play stock actually so thinking of learning it soon.
Friend, the government are smart and have learnt from the last meltdown. This is why all the government in Asia are implementing measures to stop this from happening.
It is the "investors" who are making the same mistakes. As I am new to property, I thought it's different from stocks. Now after finding out more about it, it is not that much different. If one looks from investment perspective and throw emotions out. Then they can see that property is just but on form of investment.
You haven't bought? No wonder your sentiments seem to side the downslope. :) I have bought mine and do not care if it drops in value or what. I love it all the same and can afford to hold it even if interest rate goes up to 4, 5%. I used to hope/talk/pray it will drop so that I could buy, but as I became older, I learnt too many cruel facts - inflation, truly limited supply of units that I like, so many foreign buyers, whole lot of rules with buying HDB because I am single with a high income ceiling, and discovering so many are much richer than me going for their 2nd, 3rd property.
You should wait then, until the next crash and save hard for that day!
rattydrama
19-01-11, 21:54
You haven't bought? No wonder your sentiments seem to side the downslope. :) I have bought mine and do not care if it drops in value or what. I love it all the same and can afford to hold it even if interest rate goes up to 4, 5%. I used to hope/talk/pray it will drop so that I could buy, but as I became older, I learnt too many cruel facts - inflation, truly limited supply of units that I like, so many foreign buyers, whole lot of rules with buying HDB because I am single with a high income ceiling, and discovering so many are much richer than me going for their 2nd, 3rd property.
You should wait then, until the next crash and save hard for that day!
Are u saying that even if it crashes, what you have paid for is still above the crash price, tats why if did not impact you? Even if it does, you still have cash to pay in full.
I guess you speak for a lot of the investors here. :-)
I still believe in property simply one need a roof.
well there are still buyers out there without a pte property. can opt for this as rental yield.. indirectly cut down % for pte prop buyers,isnt it.
im managing a hdb rental on behalf of a RICH peranakan frd + his indo wife.
he's staying in his parents landed,owns condos and shophouses all pen down in a will to him.
He bgt the HDB in 2010,for rental yield..
2011, he be paying for another HDB,in his brother name.. the brother coming back from UK,to celebrate CNY and buy HDB.. also for rental yield.
smart pp look out for grey area
About another 100k higher from here, the yield return of HDB will start to lose its appeal.
Are u saying that even if it crashes, what you have paid for is still above the crash price, tats why if did not impact you? Even if it does, you still have cash to pay in full.
I guess you speak for a lot of the investors here. :-)
I still believe in property simply one need a roof.
I am saying that I want to hold onto this one, while I save up for the next crash and buy another one, AND hoping that people like Hiro will never put down any courage to buy at any time :)
You haven't bought? No wonder your sentiments seem to side the downslope. :) I have bought mine and do not care if it drops in value or what. I love it all the same and can afford to hold it even if interest rate goes up to 4, 5%. I used to hope/talk/pray it will drop so that I could buy, but as I became older, I learnt too many cruel facts - inflation, truly limited supply of units that I like, so many foreign buyers, whole lot of rules with buying HDB because I am single with a high income ceiling, and discovering so many are much richer than me going for their 2nd, 3rd property.
You should wait then, until the next crash and save hard for that day!
Nope I didn't as I was busy working hard and playing shares. After accounting for my recent gains today in both stocks and CPF, I can buy something around 1.1m if I keep my HDB and around 1.8m if I sell my HDB.
I was interested but after calculating, I am better off investing in stock, whether i am selling my HDB or not. But my assumption is based on rates increasing. If rates continues to stay low, then I would have missed the boat again. :) U can see how attractive it is to buy a Mickey mouse condo at the current condition. The returns are very spectacular if conditions remain.
I am very indifference, some may see it as sour grape, as I have other ways of making money. If I really want to be a sour grape, I wouldn't be so optimistic in my assumptions. I am not a Saint either. The reason I post here is to validate my model. I will be really happy if someone can point out that my model is wrong, I also want to believe that there is potential for growth. If not, I wouldn't be here. Wouldn't take time to calculate despite my busy work schedule. :)
As for you, if I am in your condition I wouldnt worry too much. I believe property always go up in the long run. Plus u are enjoying staying in a condo now.
For me I see it as a class of investment which for now is not giving me the returns, and liquidity, which I want.
Nope I didn't as I was busy working hard and playing shares. After accounting for my recent gains today in both stocks and CPF, I can buy something around 1.1m if I keep my HDB and around 1.8m if I sell my HDB.
I was interested but after calculating, I am better off investing in stock, whether i am selling my HDB or not. But my assumption is based on rates increasing. If rates continues to stay low, then I would have missed the boat again. :) U can see how attractive it is to buy a Mickey mouse condo at the current condition. The returns are very spectacular if conditions remain.
I am very indifference, some may see it as sour grape, as I have other ways of making money. If I really want to be a sour grape, I wouldn't be so optimistic in my assumptions. I am not a Saint either. The reason I post here is to validate my model. I will be really happy if someone can point out that my model is wrong, I also want to believe that there is potential for growth. If not, I wouldn't be here. Wouldn't take time to calculate despite my busy work schedule. :)
As for you, if I am in your condition I wouldnt worry too much. I believe property always go up in the long run. Plus u are enjoying staying in a condo now.
For me I see it as a class of investment which for now is not giving me the returns, and liquidity, which I want.
I envy your foresight in the stocks market because I am more old-fashioned - prefer to see the physical form of my money! There are different ways to make money and property investment is just one of them. I can try to do stocks as well but that means I cannot sleep well (especially on Thursday nights!) thinking about the market condition the next day. I am apprehensive about buying large units because i am not confident of their rental prospects.
Anyway, the worst thing to do now is not to buy a condo, but a car!
I am saying that I want to hold onto this one, while I save up for the next crash and buy another one, AND hoping that people like Hiro will never put down any courage to buy at any time :)
Lol here I am trying to be nice by sharing my calculations and u r saying I got no balls. Getting very emotional about it?
Just one piece of advice. Regardless of what you are investing in, stocks, property, futures, commodities; do not get emotional. I learnt the hard way when I first started investing in stocks. It was only when I learnt to see things objectively and not emotionally that I started making the returns which I am looking for.
Peace ya?
rattydrama
19-01-11, 22:09
About another 100k higher from here, the yield return of HDB will start to lose its appeal.
resale HDB are purchased by PRs and less by Singaporean. When this group of people diminish in the next 15 years, what will happen to the resale HDB price? The window of appreciation will be reduced significantly coupled with those 5 year MOP rulings.
It may not be as attractive as of now.
Nope I didn't as I was busy working hard and playing shares. After accounting for my recent gains today in both stocks and CPF, I can buy something around 1.1m if I keep my HDB and around 1.8m if I sell my HDB.
I was interested but after calculating, I am better off investing in stock, whether i am selling my HDB or not. But my assumption is based on rates increasing. If rates continues to stay low, then I would have missed the boat again. :) U can see how attractive it is to buy a Mickey mouse condo at the current condition. The returns are very spectacular if conditions remain.
I am very indifference, some may see it as sour grape, as I have other ways of making money. If I really want to be a sour grape, I wouldn't be so optimistic in my assumptions. I am not a Saint either. The reason I post here is to validate my model. I will be really happy if someone can point out that my model is wrong, I also want to believe that there is potential for growth. If not, I wouldn't be here. Wouldn't take time to calculate despite my busy work schedule. :)
As for you, if I am in your condition I wouldnt worry too much. I believe property always go up in the long run. Plus u are enjoying staying in a condo now.
For me I see it as a class of investment which for now is not giving me the returns, and liquidity, which I want.
stocks and properties are very different from a liquidity standpoint, without and, more so now, with the new measures. It has to be applied with a very different mindset.
rattydrama
19-01-11, 22:16
Lol here I am trying to be nice by sharing my calculations and u r saying I got no balls. Getting very emotional about it?
Just one piece of advice. Regardless of what you are investing in, stocks, property, futures, commodities; do not get emotional. I learnt the hard way when I first started investing in stocks. It was only when I learnt to see things objectively and not emotionally that I started making the returns which I am looking for.
Peace ya?
But stock can crash some 500 points a day no matter how guru you are and u see yourself stucked and could stuck for a long time unless let go immediately to stop lost. Can get heart attack sometimes.
if my memory dont fails, my friend bought keppel at $11 before crisis for 100 lots and it dropped at some points to $4-5 bucks. Luckily now recovers and luckily it is keppel.
stocks and properties are very different from a liquidity standpoint, without and, more so now, with the new measures. It has to be applied with a very different mindset.
Agree. But being less liquid, I would expect a higher return to compensate. Something which I am not seeing at this stage, unless rates remain low in the near future.
As you can see I love figures and they have served me well over the years. Can someone give me reasons backed with figures to be optimistic? I am sure there are, as there are always astute investors that make money in both upturn or downturn. However, these are the few who will keep their secrets to themselves.
FYI, I love it when the stock markets crash. To me a crash, wei ji means with crisis comes opportunity. Lol
devilplate
19-01-11, 22:24
Always put stop loss diligently if u play like let say more den 100k in stocks.... Surely slp well....:)
I repeat again :Ppty is a form of wealth accumulation
Devil u are officially converted to propertism. ;) congratulations. Can u pass the test of faith thrown out by MBT ? :D
hiro seriously u think u r here to " give advice " ? ;)
Always put stop loss diligently if u play like let say more den 100k in stocks.... Surely slp well....:)
I repeat again :Ppty is a form of wealth accumulation
But property is more troublesome than stocks. Have to find tenant, deal with lousy agents, then tenant don't pay, then house leak, then tenant complain, then property tax, then maintenance fees, etc.... aiyoh....:doh:
Stocks, no such problems.... although there's the occasional rights issue....:)
Having said that, I still go for property. Property is tangible, can touch, can feel.... now with CDP, don't even have the share certificate....
Agree. But being less liquid, I would expect a higher return to compensate. Something which I am not seeing at this stage, unless rates remain low in the near future.
As you can see I love figures and they have served me well over the years. Can someone give me reasons backed with figures to be optimistic? I am sure there are, as there are always astute investors that make money in both upturn or downturn. However, these are the few who will keep their secrets to themselves.
FYI, I love it when the stock markets crash. To me a crash, wei ji means with crisis comes opportunity. Lol
you'll need to spend time to find properties that can offer your return higher than stocks. they're getting lesser and lesser.
But stock can crash some 500 points a day no matter how guru you are and u see yourself stucked and could stuck for a long time unless let go immediately to stop lost. Can get heart attack sometimes.
if my memory dont fails, my friend bought keppel at $11 before crisis for 100 lots and it dropped at some points to $4-5 bucks. Luckily now recovers and luckily it is keppel.
That's becuz your friend is not objective enough. If it crash, it's time to let go even though u may lose 20-30%. During the crash, you can easily make back the loss and many times that.
Interesting why people think it only happens to stocks and that property is so different. Take my mum's property which peaked at 600k, dropped to 380k and now at 680k. It's exactly the same as your Keppel example. If u buy at the peak, over the last 10 yrs you only made 80k. I don't see what is so different except that property is more illiquid and has higher transaction cost. The basic theory is still buy low, sell high.
Btw I am no guru. I bought a certain stock at a low price and earned 200% of it. If I held on, I would have made 600% now. Lol but I am ok as I invested in something else which doubled as well, hence effectively made 400% if were to really calculate. Plus you can never know when is peak. Reach target, sell and reinvest. Btw such profits are normally seen during crisis only.
Then why am I looking at property? Leverage!! But it is now lost with the 40% dp. Sigh...
Devil u are officially converted to propertism. ;) congratulations. Can u pass the test of faith thrown out by MBT ? :D
hiro seriously u think u r here to " give advice " ? ;)
Nope, I am here to seek advice. I pray that someone can tell me that I am wrong. I learn from mistakes, as I did from playing stocks. If someone can correct my mistakes here, I will be most pleased.
Afterall, if I put all my money in property, I can only afford to fail once and have to start accumating again.
But property is more troublesome than stocks. Have to find tenant, deal with lousy agents, then tenant don't pay, then house leak, then tenant complain, then property tax, then maintenance fees, etc.... aiyoh....:doh:
Stocks, no such problems.... although there's the occasional rights issue....:)
Having said that, I still go for property. Property is tangible, can touch, can feel.... now with CDP, don't even have the share certificate....
Lol, I started of 13 yrs ago with CDP. Hence, don't have this problem.
Agree. With what you say but SG market very boring so I diversified to other countries like US. Was happy with the returns till exchange rates keep eating into my profit. Lol.
Maybe can consider buying US property now with the low exchange rate and depress prices there. Anyone knows whether I can take a loan if I don't work there? Or must be paid in full?
Nope, I am here to seek advice. I pray that someone can tell me that I am wrong. I learn from mistakes, as I did from playing stocks. If someone can correct my mistakes here, I will be most pleased.
Afterall, if I put all my money in property, I can only afford to fail once and have to start accumating again.
hmm... but u should not be doing this, rite?
Ai ya, no matter how you play stocks, at most over 1 cycle you make 100%+ only with you cash capital (You may earn 200% at some time but quickly evaporated because there is no way you can get out exactly at the top). With properties and low interest rate leverage, you can make 200%-500% of your cash capital, which will more than adequately compensate you for the lower liquidity. :cheers1:
Agree. But being less liquid, I would expect a higher return to compensate. Something which I am not seeing at this stage, unless rates remain low in the near future.
As you can see I love figures and they have served me well over the years. Can someone give me reasons backed with figures to be optimistic? I am sure there are, as there are always astute investors that make money in both upturn or downturn. However, these are the few who will keep their secrets to themselves.
FYI, I love it when the stock markets crash. To me a crash, wei ji means with crisis comes opportunity. Lol
rattydrama
19-01-11, 22:58
That's becuz your friend is not objective enough. If it crash, it's time to let go even though u may lose 20-30%. During the crash, you can easily make back the loss and many times that.
Btw I am no guru. I bought a certain stock at a low price and earned 200% of it. If I held on, I would have made 600% now. Lol but I am ok as I invested in something else which doubled as well, hence effectively made 400% if were to really calculate. Plus you can never know when is peak. Reach target, sell and reinvest. Btw such profits are normally seen during crisis only.
Then why am I looking at property? Leverage!! But it is now lost with the 40% dp. Sigh...
He is a business and don't monitor stock. Its the dividends and the blue chips status that attracted him. And I belief a number of people are like them.
I guess really need to understand stocks in order to play them. Any good training program in stock worth attending for beginners?
BTW sure u know that u can pay yr HDB in full and buy your next ppty at 20% dp or am I wrong? You may want to look at resale property if the price dip say 5-10% and u can still find some gains. Seller at times willing to sell since they already making their profit. my 2 cents.
There is a difference - OCBC once traded to $50+ >15 years ago. Do you see it trading at split-adjusted of $50+ now after 15 years? But properties different - The next cycle high is always higher than previous cycle. Now they are already higher than any time in the past. Can the same be said about stocks? Some stocks just go bankrupt, get delisted, or price go back in 1 full cycle and same price or even lower than previous peak, cannot break. I know very well because I have been playing don't know how many donkey decades. My record has a stock making 600+% within 2 years! There are also some making 200+% to 300+% within 5 years. However, there will always be losers, net net only 100+% per cycle of 5-8 years.
That's becuz your friend is not objective enough. If it crash, it's time to let go even though u may lose 20-30%. During the crash, you can easily make back the loss and many times that.
Interesting why people think it only happens to stocks and that property is so different. Take my mum's property which peaked at 600k, dropped to 380k and now at 680k. It's exactly the same as your Keppel example. If u buy at the peak, over the last 10 yrs you only made 80k. I don't see what is so different except that property is more illiquid and has higher transaction cost. The basic theory is still buy low, sell high.
Btw I am no guru. I bought a certain stock at a low price and earned 200% of it. If I held on, I would have made 600% now. Lol but I am ok as I invested in something else which doubled as well, hence effectively made 400% if were to really calculate. Plus you can never know when is peak. Reach target, sell and reinvest. Btw such profits are normally seen during crisis only.
Then why am I looking at property? Leverage!! But it is now lost with the 40% dp. Sigh...
Ai ya, no matter how you play stocks, at most over 1 cycle you make 100%+ only with you cash capital (You may earn 200% at some time but quickly evaporated because there is no way you can get out exactly at the top). With properties and low interest rate leverage, you can make 200%-500% of your cash capital, which will more than adequately compensate you for the lower liquidity. :cheers1:
There're plenty of derivatives out there that gives lots of leverage, but that's more like gambling....:tsk-tsk:
With the current measures, the leverage is much lower than 2 years ago... no fun anymore:(
rattydrama
19-01-11, 23:04
my spc stock got delisted.....and I made a lost......:scared-4: and some of my stock never move.....I quite sian.
Ai ya, no matter how you play stocks, at most over 1 cycle you make 100%+ only with you cash capital (You may earn 200% at some time but quickly evaporated because there is no way you can get out exactly at the top). With properties and low interest rate leverage, you can make 200%-500% of your cash capital, which will more than adequately compensate you for the lower liquidity. :cheers1:
I give max leverage tools, forex. 120% returns in a month
Different. Property you can borrow at 1.2% pa.
Stocks? More like 10% to 15% pa.? How to make much money through leverage with such high interest?
Derivatives? You will never win them, not much difference from gambling at the tables in casino, probably faster and more fun at the table!
There're plenty of derivatives out there that gives lots of leverage, but that's more like gambling....:tsk-tsk:
With the current measures, the leverage is much lower than 2 years ago... no fun anymore:(
devilplate
19-01-11, 23:07
Ai ya, no matter how you play stocks, at most over 1 cycle you make 100%+ only with you cash capital (You may earn 200% at some time but quickly evaporated because there is no way you can get out exactly at the top). With properties and low interest rate leverage, you can make 200%-500% of your cash capital, which will more than adequately compensate you for the lower liquidity. :cheers1:
actually in early 09...if u leverage on stocks...u can really make alot alot more den ppty...who say stocks cannot leverage....i can leverage 10x but i no balls and only leverage 4-5X....den later on put some $ on ppty :cheers6: ....but i lost the opportunity to buy sky@tpy at less den 1.2kpsf....well, win some lose some:cheers6:
forex can leverage alot more....but my balls not so solid....hehe
Can you make 120% returns every month consistently over a period of 10 years? :D
I don't think I need to get you answer because the answer is very obvious. :p
You can even make 500% at one time, but over a period 10 years, net net you balance out and become square one. :cheers1:
I give max leverage tools, forex. 120% returns in a month
I don't usually leverage on stocks & futures & options & forex etc, as I said, interest too high and margin are callable, vs properties super low interest and not callable as long as you pay your instalment.
actually in early 09...if u leverage on stocks...u can really make alot alot more den ppty...who say stocks cannot leverage....i can leverage 10x but i no balls and only leverage 4-5X....den later on put some $ on ppty :cheers6: ....but i lost the opportunity to buy sky@tpy at less den 1.2kpsf....well, win some lose some:cheers6:
forex can leverage alot more....but my balls not so solid....hehe
That's becuz your friend is not objective enough. If it crash, it's time to let go even though u may lose 20-30%. During the crash, you can easily make back the loss and many times that.
Interesting why people think it only happens to stocks and that property is so different. Take my mum's property which peaked at 600k, dropped to 380k and now at 680k. It's exactly the same as your Keppel example. If u buy at the peak, over the last 10 yrs you only made 80k. I don't see what is so different except that property is more illiquid and has higher transaction cost. The basic theory is still buy low, sell high.
Btw I am no guru. I bought a certain stock at a low price and earned 200% of it. If I held on, I would have made 600% now. Lol but I am ok as I invested in something else which doubled as well, hence effectively made 400% if were to really calculate. Plus you can never know when is peak. Reach target, sell and reinvest. Btw such profits are normally seen during crisis only.
Then why am I looking at property? Leverage!! But it is now lost with the 40% dp. Sigh...
If there is a price correction with private property or if it dips, will your HDB be affected too?
Can you make 120% returns every month consistently over a period of 10 years? :D
I don't think I need to get you answer because the answer is very obvious. :p
You can even make 500% at one time, but over a period 10 years, net net you balance out and become square one. :cheers1:
Neither can you get consistently yields or gains out of properties For 10yrs due to the cycles and rates.
Best part min sum 10k can win 12k. And lose only that 10k. And k be back with plenty of 10kssssss to restart
URS property cam drop more than 50-100k. Unless u got plenty of 50-100ksssss to restart again
devilplate
19-01-11, 23:19
Can you make 120% returns every month consistently over a period of 10 years? :D
I don't think I need to get you answer because the answer is very obvious. :p
You can even make 500% at one time, but over a period 10 years, net net you balance out and become square one. :cheers1:
i noe u r speaking from ur gd past yrs of experience....best eg...whole of 2008....impossible to make $$ from equities....
devilplate
19-01-11, 23:24
Neither can you get consistently yields or gains out of properties For 10yrs due to the cycles and rates.
Best part min sum 10k can win 12k. And lose only that 10k. And k be back with plenty of 10kssssss to restart
URS property cam drop more than 50-100k. Unless u got plenty of 50-100ksssss to restart again
stocks is to make $$ fast fast especially when u only hf tat much amount of money......when u make like let say 500k-1mil or even few mils...surely better to put some into ppty...:D
stocks is to make $$ fast fast especially when u only hf too much amount of money......when u make like let say 500k-1mil or even few mils...surely better to put some into ppty...:D
u are right most pp make from stock or anywhere then they park into properties.
As tedderbear ask for the max leverage so I gave him forex. And then he tell me inconsistency. btw which investments give such consistency. If is do,then is should be termed as savings. Not investment
Neither can you get consistently yields or gains out of properties For 10yrs due to the cycles and rates.
Best part min sum 10k can win 12k. And lose only that 10k. And k be back with plenty of 10kssssss to restart
URS property cam drop more than 50-100k. Unless u got plenty of 50-100ksssss to restart again
opps typo. Should be prop drop,shld be 100-200k range.
not at 50k perhaps only hdb drop 50k?
devilplate
19-01-11, 23:53
opps typo. Should be prop drop,shld be 100-200k range.
not at 50k perhaps only hdb drop 50k?
ppty is actually more consistent over a longer period of time....
dun tok abt so long ago...jus tok abt those who bot icon 1bedders at 3xxk-400k....even they dun sell...rental yield oredi earn till siao:D ....u got it?
furthermore when ur ppty u bot doubled or tripled over time..u can apply for equity loan....use it as collateral etc...passive rental income....so, start yng and dun keep buy and sell ur ppty....keep gd ones along the way....key word is: START YOUNG!
ppty is actually more consistent over a longer period of time....
dun tok abt so long ago...jus tok abt those who bot icon 1bedders at 3xxk-400k....even they dun sell...rental yield oredi earn till siao:D ....u got it?
furthermore when ur ppty u bot doubled or tripled over time..u can apply for equity loan....use it as collateral etc...passive rental income....so, start yng and dun keep buy and sell ur ppty....keep gd ones along the way....key word is: START YOUNG!
Dnt wrry I'm just 33. Long way to go. I buy and sell only soso Props for fast bucks. Gd property let my family keep. Not my task for now.
Who knows there'd something better invest if we dont explore and just focus on props
I just take this cycle as a learning experience. To achieve better results next cycle
Ai ya, no matter how you play stocks, at most over 1 cycle you make 100%+ only with you cash capital (You may earn 200% at some time but quickly evaporated because there is no way you can get out exactly at the top). With properties and low interest rate leverage, you can make 200%-500% of your cash capital, which will more than adequately compensate you for the lower liquidity. :cheers1:
I know. I stated this as a reason why I am looking at property. I also explained that it is now no longer attractive due to 40% dp. Plus I personally opined that the low interest environment will not stay long. Your opinion may vary but thats fine. My calculations are based on my assumptions. Everyone is entitled to their own views ya?
If there is a price correction with private property or if it dips, will your HDB be affected too?
Of cuz it will. If it can climb more 250-300k over the last 5 years. I don't see why it cannot crash 50% but unlikely to crash so badly as population has increased faster than the rate of new HDB. Humans are like this. When it is cheap, they are not interested, when it is expensive, everyone is interested. Me included. Greed!
Plus in 2 years time, there will be influx of condo and HDB. You may then ask why I am not selling? It's because I am only paying $500plus per month via CPF. Outside maybe can rent only 1 room. :)
Dnt wrry I'm just 33. Long way to go. I buy and sell only soso Props for fast bucks. Gd property let my family keep. Not my task for now.
Who knows there'd something better invest if we dont explore and just focus on props
I just take this cycle as a learning experience. To achieve better results next cycle
Property outside Singapore can be a good investment if you know how.:)
Property outside Singapore can be a good investment if you know how.:)
don't know how leh... have to start learning all over again on the local laws, taxes, loans etc....:confused:
sigh...:spliff:
don't know how leh... have to start learning all over again on the local laws, taxes, loans etc....:confused:
sigh...:spliff:
Ya lor and there are higher risks as you can't see your property unless you have trusted guy over there to help.
Dnt wrry I'm just 33. Long way to go. I buy and sell only soso Props for fast bucks. Gd property let my family keep. Not my task for now.
Who knows there'd something better invest if we dont explore and just focus on props
I just take this cycle as a learning experience. To achieve better results next cycle
Thought you born in 1971 (like Hiro born in 1976 or KingKong, the guru who talks like he has 20 years experience in property :cool:, born in 1984)
33 has a long way to go indeed ;)
to make 100k in stock of 20% gain, you need capital outlay of 500k. to make 100k in property, u just need a fraction of 500k stock capital outlay
to make 100k in stock of 20% gain, you need capital outlay of 500k. to make 100k in property, u just need a fraction of 500k stock capital outlay
;) The leverage goes both ways... cannot make comparison like that.
ppty is actually more consistent over a longer period of time....
dun tok abt so long ago...jus tok abt those who bot icon 1bedders at 3xxk-400k....even they dun sell...rental yield oredi earn till siao:D ....u got it?
furthermore when ur ppty u bot doubled or tripled over time..u can apply for equity loan....use it as collateral etc...passive rental income....so, start yng and dun keep buy and sell ur ppty....keep gd ones along the way....key word is: START YOUNG!
ICON at Tanjong Pagar?? Wow 3xxK to 400k for 1 bedders?! When was it launched?
Thought you born in 1971 (like Hiro born in 1976 or KingKong, the guru who talks like he has 20 years experience in property :cool:, born in 1984)
33 has a long way to go indeed ;)
nope that's just a lucky no to me. 7+1= 8
anyone can correct if icon is 300-400k.? I know the sail was like 500-600k right?
nope that's just a lucky no to me. 7+1= 8
anyone can correct if icon is 300-400k.? I know the sail was like 500-600k right?
It was around that price I think for VVIP launch...
I had a friend who flipped in 3 mths made 250K (though his was 2 bedder)
to make 100k in stock of 20% gain, you need capital outlay of 500k. to make 100k in property, u just need a fraction of 500k stock capital outlay
High leverage cuts both ways. Just make sure can "tong3" when market goes down.
kingkong1984
22-01-11, 14:18
Thought you born in 1971 (like Hiro born in 1976 or KingKong, the guru who talks like he has 20 years experience in property :cool:, born in 1984)
33 has a long way to go indeed ;)
I guru meh?
Better than a freak dog right? :)
Start looking now, if there are good units must grab Liao....
rattydrama
24-01-11, 20:20
Start looking now, if there are good units must grab Liao....
Looks like need to try hard cos not many willing to let go at discount.
like that ah! price how to drop leh :p...
Looks like need to try hard cos not many willing to let go at discount.
even bank auction is seeing strong response for good units after the announcements
like that ah! price how to drop leh :p...
Seriously speaking has anyone seen any good lobang like firesale? I'm really curious how mkt will react
There was a bank sale for a unit at the nexus. Normally bank sale you get a better chance for fire sale. This one transacted at market average price.
There was a bank sale for a unit at the nexus. Normally bank sale you get a better chance for fire sale. This one transacted at market average price.
Hhmmm If transact at mkt average prices then not considered firesale le...
So it appears dat mkt is holding up well for e time being
kingkong1984
25-01-11, 09:40
Stable. Economy well, property well. Economy sick, property sick.
I do see some landed selling lower. Maybe it's due to expressway.
Stable. Economy well, property well. Economy sick, property sick.
I do see some landed selling lower. Maybe it's due to expressway.
HEEHEEHEE...no leh...those affected by NSE...tried to sell and run 2 years ago...but failed.
If landed selling lower...maybe need to rebuild and you paying for land only hor...
I think prices will stabilize and not drop. Prices will drop when sellers/developers do not have holding power. This will only happen when prices stagnant for too long or when interest rates increase. Base on recent news, a fair number has stretched for a number of loans. Currently rental can pay off installment hence no selling pressure. If interest goes up, monthly payment goes up beyond rental. A fraction of investors who got no holding power will sell and trigger a sell off. If rates go high enough or if prices start to dip enough to trigger fear of further dips, weaker developers will also have to start selling units at lower price. If government does not step in, prices can drop badly.
But if interest rates stays low, the above will not happen. The key is interest rates which is beyond our control.
kingkong1984
25-01-11, 20:44
HEEHEEHEE...no leh...those affected by NSE...tried to sell and run 2 years ago...but failed.
If landed selling lower...maybe need to rebuild and you paying for land only hor...
Yup, kana blocked for sales. Agents throw smoke!!!! Haha
Wild Falcon
25-01-11, 22:02
Avoid landed for now. Too much speculation recently and with the cooling measures, has become very very quiet.
Stable. Economy well, property well. Economy sick, property sick.
I do see some landed selling lower. Maybe it's due to expressway.
kingkong1984
26-01-11, 17:25
Avoid landed for now. Too much speculation recently and with the cooling measures, has become very very quiet.
Yes, agree, good advice.
They are still running and jumping but when the sun goes down.... Darkness:hell-hath-no-fury:
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