Secondary home sales shrink under big chill

[Geylang OKT]

Secondary home sales shrink under big chill
Subsales of private homes in Sept down 52%, resales slide 42%, prelim figures show

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

(SINGAPORE) Secondary market transactions of private homes slowed down considerably in September over the preceding month following the property cooling measures announced on August 30.

The number of subsales fell about 52 per cent month on month in September, while resales of private homes eased 42 per cent over the same period, an analysis of URA Realis caveats data as of Oct 19 shows.

The sales volumes are expected to increase over the next few weeks as more caveats are lodged for September's transactions. Nevertheless, market watchers reckon the preliminary numbers shown in the analysis by Credo Real Estate is an indication of the slowdown of activity in the secondary market for private homes following the government measures.

Subsales and resales are secondary market transactions; subsales involve projects that have yet to receive Certificate of Statutory Completion (CSC), while resales refer to developments with CSC.

Last Friday, Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) unveiled data showing that the number of private homes sold by developers fell about 28 per cent month on month to 911 units in September. However, analysts cautioned against comparing this rate of slowdown with declines for secondary market deals.

This is because URA primary market sales numbers are sourced from monthly surveys of developers, whereas data on the number of subsales and resales are collated from caveats lodged, and there's typically a lag of about 2-3 weeks or even more, between an option being granted and a caveat being lodged (the latter usually takes place upon exercise of option).

However, at least one seasoned property consultant was willing to say that the data is a 'good reflection' of what's happening in the market. DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah said: 'Chances of successful sales in the secondary market these days are lower as people do not have that much control. It's not as organised, whereas in the primary market, a developer will first test the market to ensure there's a reasonable chance of good response before launching the project. It's a more managed process.'

Mrs Ong said another reason secondary market sellers were less successful than developers last month is that 'by and large, owners are trying to hold on to their prices, which is why we're seeing a standoff in the secondary market'.

'Whereas developers, if they want to launch, have to ensure there'll be sales activity. In recent weeks, we've seen them releasing new projects at the lower end of their original price expectations.'

Credo's caveats analysis showed that the number of caveats lodged for subsales of private homes slipped from 311 in August to 150 in September. The volume of resale caveats eased from 1,927 in August to 1,113 in September.

The last time the subsale figure was this low was in February 2009 (127 units) while the latest resale figure is close to the 1,009 transactions seen in April 2009, in the aftermath of the global financial crash.

Credo's executive director Ong Teck Hui also highlights that the 150-unit subsale volume for September is about half the 304-unit average for January to August this year, while the September resale figure of 1,113 units is down 37 per cent from the 1,767-unit average for Jan-Aug 2010.

(Read more at BT)

[vince.toh70]

Will this have any price effect in the secondary market?:tongue3:

[sfwoo]

Will this have any price effect in the secondary market?:tongue3:
In D23...asking prices are not dropping...
Actually, asking prices have gone up a little bit for the Hillview area...

[devilplate]

In D23...asking prices are not dropping...
Actually, asking prices have gone up a little bit for the Hillview area...

certain area/projects r transacting at higher prices after 30th Aug...

[sfwoo]

certain area/projects r transacting at higher prices after 30th Aug...

I have been watching one 3 + 1 in Hillview...asking juz adjusted upwards today, by 2.2%, after it failed to sell at previous asking for about 2 months...

[Wild Falcon]

I think depend on district. After the cooling measures, most investors now review their strategy and look for value and fundamentals, i.e. moving away from the "anyhow whack also make money" strategy. That is a sign of a healthy market.

[vince.toh70]

I have been watching one 3 + 1 in Hillview...asking juz adjusted upwards today, by 2.2%, after it failed to sell at previous asking for about 2 months...

i do noticed that too.
Owners are asking for higher and higher.
Guess for now, it is a standoff b/w buyer and seller.

[Wild Falcon]

Actually I'm not surprised that volume comes down. In the first place, a lot of buyers are not owner occupiers but speculators, esp subsales. From now on, the speculative demand will be greatly reduced. It will become more difficult to buy from developer and subsale within a short while with minimal cash out. But then, still got very successful speculators in some MMs like Haig 162 @ 1658psf.

We should just ban subsale just like Hong Kong. There is no reason why anyone would buy and sell uncompleted properties 3-4 times before a property is even ready for occupation. Clearly, these are all speculators.

[devilplate]

Actually I'm not surprised that volume comes down. In the first place, a lot of buyers are not owner occupiers but speculators, esp subsales. From now on, the speculative demand will be greatly reduced. It will become more difficult to buy from developer and subsale within a short while with minimal cash out. But then, still got very successful speculators in some MMs like Haig 162 @ 1658psf.

We should just ban subsale just like Hong Kong. There is no reason why anyone would buy and sell uncompleted properties 3-4 times before a property is even ready for occupation. Clearly, these are all speculators.

govt oredi 'ban' subsale liao la by imposing 3yrs SSD.....i dun tink anyone r in the right mind to buy new launches and subsale within 1 yr(probably cant even breakeven)....3rd yr probably still ok to pay just 1% more...

now, real investors/owner occupiers r buying....all looking at rental yield :2cents:

[mcmlxxvi]

Actually I'm not surprised that volume comes down. In the first place, a lot of buyers are not owner occupiers but speculators, esp subsales. From now on, the speculative demand will be greatly reduced. It will become more difficult to buy from developer and subsale within a short while with minimal cash out. But then, still got very successful speculators in some MMs like Haig 162 @ 1658psf.

We should just ban subsale just like Hong Kong. There is no reason why anyone would buy and sell uncompleted properties 3-4 times before a property is even ready for occupation. Clearly, these are all speculators.

One/two off case doesn't the rule make....

Maybe gay likes Haig coz sound like 'gay' and rearranged is g-a-i-h pronounced as gay in British accent... does 1-6-2 translate to any acts of *** maybe ...

That's how rich gay buy Haig at 1658psf.

[devilplate]

One/two off case doesn't the rule make....

Maybe gay likes Haig coz sound like 'gay' and rearranged is g-a-i-h pronounced as gay in British accent... does 1-6-2 translate to any acts of *** maybe ...

That's how rich gay buy Haig at 1658psf.

den geylang largi better rite???

'gay lang' wor...somemore can help to conceal their 'gay' identity as ppl will naturally tot they like chickens tats y they stay there? hahaha

mabe tats the reason y geylang MM units rose to 12xxpsf liao....first MM projects was 9xxpsf only....hahahaha

[med80009]

You can ask for any price you want but it depends whether there are takers. Since interest rates are so low and inflation going up, most will have enough holding power to leave money in property and hedge against inflation.

If no money to buy property, better go and buy rice to store up at home since inflation is at 3% (plus-minus) and deposit rates are negligible in this climate.

Fire sale will happen when interest rates shoot up and chaps who use 30-40% of their income for mortgage servicing based on the current low interest rate start feeling the pinch.

Having said that, how long good times can last will always be uncertain. At the end of the day like what some analyst say, separate emotions in decision making, look at numbers, plan entry and exit strategy and don't look back.

[devilplate]

You can ask for any price you want but it depends whether there are takers. Since interest rates are so low and inflation going up, most will have enough holding power to leave money in property and hedge against inflation.

If no money to buy property, better go and buy rice to store up at home also can since inflation is at 3% (plus-minus) and deposit rates are negligible in this climate.

Fire sale will happen when interest rates shoot up and chaps who use 30-40% of their income for mortgage servicing based on the current low interest rate start feeling the pinch.

Having said that, how long good times can last is always uncertain. At the end of the day like what some analyst say, separate emotions in decision making, look at numbers, plan entry and exit strategy.

u tok like nvr tok leh:p

[Concours]

i do noticed that too.
Owners are asking for higher and higher.
Guess for now, it is a standoff b/w buyer and seller.

Most of the time its not the owners raising the asking prices.

Some are done by irresponsible marketing agents without owners knowledge.

It benefits the agents knowing that since it cannot be sold, there is upside benefit for the agent to sell it to an unknowing or kiasi buyer.

[rattydrama]

In D23...asking prices are not dropping...
Actually, asking prices have gone up a little bit for the Hillview area...

This is because most are freeholds, upcoming MRT and "near" to Jurong Lake District. Potential upside.

[rattydrama]

No need to ban. Willing buyer willing seller. We just dont follow and buy. Its good that government implement 30% down payment for 2nd ppty.




Actually I'm not surprised that volume comes down. In the first place, a lot of buyers are not owner occupiers but speculators, esp subsales. From now on, the speculative demand will be greatly reduced. It will become more difficult to buy from developer and subsale within a short while with minimal cash out. But then, still got very successful speculators in some MMs like Haig 162 @ 1658psf.

We should just ban subsale just like Hong Kong. There is no reason why anyone would buy and sell uncompleted properties 3-4 times before a property is even ready for occupation. Clearly, these are all speculators.

[rattydrama]

these days owners/buyers not so lame, they will check the caveat and compare. If buyer need a house and cannot wait, they will offer at a price higher than market price but its always near the last transacted price.

Agent influence is limited.



Most of the time its not the owners raising the asking prices.

Some are done by irresponsible marketing agents without owners knowledge.

It benefits the agents knowing that since it cannot be sold, there is upside benefit for the agent to sell it to an unknowing or kiasi buyer.

[Wild Falcon]

Geylang is really not a bad location - probably fetches the best rental yields today. Downside protection is there they are (i) freehold, (ii) can enbloc (new launch MM are higher priced) (iii) popular with mainland Chinese. (iv) Central location. Upside potential better than Balestier really - at least Geylang can lay claim to being close to 3 MRT stations - Aljunied, Moumtbatton, Stadium.


den geylang largi better rite???

'gay lang' wor...somemore can help to conceal their 'gay' identity as ppl will naturally tot they like chickens tats y they stay there? hahaha

mabe tats the reason y geylang MM units rose to 12xxpsf liao....first MM projects was 9xxpsf only....hahahaha

[Wild Falcon]

Singapore market cannot depend solely on rental yield because it is so low - not worth the pain. Must invest in localities with some capital gains potential as well, i.e. new frontier areas. Now must try harder to locate the hidden gems with upside potential liao.


govt oredi 'ban' subsale liao la by imposing 3yrs SSD.....i dun tink anyone r in the right mind to buy new launches and subsale within 1 yr(probably cant even breakeven)....3rd yr probably still ok to pay just 1% more...

now, real investors/owner occupiers r buying....all looking at rental yield :2cents:

[rattydrama]

agree..so must work hard and do more research and house viewing. It is becoming an art.



Singapore market cannot depend solely on rental yield because it is so low - not worth the pain. Must invest in localities with some capital gains potential as well, i.e. new frontier areas. Now must try harder to locate the hidden gems with upside potential liao.

[stalingrad]

Singapore market cannot depend solely on rental yield because it is so low - not worth the pain. Must invest in localities with some capital gains potential as well, i.e. new frontier areas. Now must try harder to locate the hidden gems with upside potential liao.

so, we should all invest in woodland condos?

[rattydrama]

so, we should all invest in woodland condos?

near woodlands MRT but must wait.

[mcmlxxvi]

Geylang is really not a bad location - probably fetches the best rental yields today. Downside protection is there they are (i) freehold, (ii) can enbloc (new launch MM are higher priced) (iii) popular with mainland Chinese. (iv) Central location. Upside potential better than Balestier really - at least Geylang can lay claim to being close to 3 MRT stations - Aljunied, Moumtbatton, Stadium.

Actually 4 - Aljunied, Paya Lebar, Mountbatten, Dakota